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#1 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, I did a very scattered re-read at work but didn't have the time to post any conclusions. I would have actually liked to recheck a few things once I get home, in a better environment, but this for now. These are just very quick summaries of my current impressions.
Assuming Soriman is innocent (btw hoping he shows up). Morsul has a fairly good voting record, probably the best by far. His posting often raises questions of its own, but he has the tendency to act unpredictably. There is still the possibility that he might be a Wolf based on the Ghost info from yesterDay, in that case a super lucky and brazen one. I would rather lean innocent because it would be just too many lucky coincidences for him. Sidenote, regarding yesterDay, a lot still depends on what did the Wolves do there and how coordinated it was, whether they went in with the idea to bus sally or not. Lommy, as for voting record, was twice in the thick of the Huiwagon. Otherwise like I said she does not seem to post in any way wolfishly, but could be a submarine Wolf. YesterDay I would say her actions around the vote for sally speak to her favour, her willingness to consider sally's claim but also that she voted her (fairly early) - a Wolf would likely not have done that. Pitch has the most suspicious voting record, basically voting every Day when it did not matter any more. His posts raise eyebrows every now and then, but he has so far managed to avoid getting under any drastic scrutiny. The matter with him and possible participation in the Seer reveal with sally yesterDay is also one thing that makes him look bad. Boro has certainly been a "steersman" through and through, and one could basically interpret each of his actions as good or bad, including all the cryptic remarks and conspiracy theories. His voting has been rather on the safer side (first Day he voted for somebody who did not have the chance to get lynched, Day 2 he voted early too). Day 3 depends of course on what exactly has trespassed there. If he's a Wolf, then he threw sally under the bus, but not that it is impossible, of all people I can imagine him doing that. If that was the idea, now he is in much better standing because of that and may be just playing it that way, hoping to weather whatever storms are going to come. Right now, I would be more inclined to think that at least one of Boro or Pitch is a Wolf, and I feel overall more confident about them than the other two; the others would be much more blind shot for me. It may however be quite imaginable that either of Pitch and Boro is and then his packmate is one of the two others. I tried at some point during my re-read to form some sort of combinatorics about who could be Wolves with whom, but I realised that was beyond my processing power, at least at work. Anyway I think it comes down to whether we lynch correctly toDay, then hopefully that will help things become clearer toMorrow, plus ideally with more Dead and possibly Seer info. Need to make myself some dinner, but then I'll be back. Presumably shouldn't be too long. EDIT: x-ed with several novels and with all Ghost's posts. Will be back to read them.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#2 |
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Haunting Spirit
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Yeah i'm here Legate, just not able to post much...
I think the dead have proved my innocence, reading through now.
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"And thou, Melkor, shalt see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite... ". The Silmarillion - Ainulindalë |
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#3 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Few quick thoughts on the Ghost's most recent words - I cannot really figure out much from that. It seems to me that perhaps (?) it refers to the way they came up with that Soriman is innocent, so it is some sort of elaboration on that. And maybe (the later post) also what/how they figured out their thoughts about Pitchwife. But I cannot really make much sense out of it. I sort of assume that it is not anything new that would shake the gist of what has been said before, but some elaboration that could be useful if we deciphered it, but this is as much as I can figure out from that.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#4 | |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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And Huin seems to be repeating this too, and also repeating the dead suspect Pitchwife but they are not certain. I only wonder what Soriman being "not hostile to elves" means, if it means anything. Does it mean that he's not hostile to Galadriel55 ie didn't eat her ie is innocent? Or does it mean he is not hostile to me or Morsul (since we're the ones with Sindarin usernames) and the dead think we're all innocent? Or even know something? Pitch, I'm not sure if I'm reading correctly, yesterDay you seem to both question Sally and believe her in #368 before proceeding to legate-180 on her - can you explain your flipflop? Legate, so you don't think Boro and Pitch are packmates, but rather that one is a wolf with Morsul or me? Hmm I wonder why is that, because currently I think most likely packs are either Legate-Boro or Legate-Pitch... (Or Boro-Morsul, but if they are, I wouldn't honestly mind them winning because they'd have been doing an insanely good job.) Now off to look at Day2, hoping it will either prove or disprove the Legate-Boro theory... edit: xed with Legate
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#5 | |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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EDIT: x-ed with pitch
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#6 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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A Look at the Triple Trouble from Day2
The whole thing seems to have started with Boro and especially Legate's (#124) vote analyses. Legate suggests a Hui-Lottie duo, or a Pitch-Hui duo, and calls Boro's vote for Lottie "throwaway".
Huinesoron agreed with Legate about the Form kill. Boro suspected Legate for focusing on Hui and me on his vote analysis while conveniently ignoring himself and Morsul. Hui didn't think a wolf-Lottie would have thought innocent-Boro a seer. Boro did a conspiracy theory post about Legate and Huin being packmates, saying "Huey's driving and getting the suspicions stirring against innocent people. Legate is narrowing in on Huey + 1 other, to softly suspect Huey and fall back on as a wolf-on-wolf vote, but trying to put the attention on the other person (Greenie Day 1 and now Lommy today)." Right after, Hui attacked Boro, for misrepresenting both the information available to the dead thread, and misrepresenting Legate's vote analysis. In his list post, Legate was suspicious of Huin, even though not particularly strongly. (Btw Legate, I remember you replied to me saying "you were supposed to be pro-Huinesoron!" after you voted for him that you were never pro-Huinesoron, and I can see that now. My apologies! Not sure it's a point in your favour given Huin was innocent, but at least it makes your voting more consistent than I thought it was.) He also says "I am becoming increasingly unclear, if not suspicious about what Boro is up to, because while yesterDay I overall leaned towards trusting what he was doing, toDay I am increasingly dubious about what his role in everything is. It may be influenced partly by his throwaway vote yesterDay and lastly the conspiracy theory post - I cannot tell whether that is supposed to be a mental exercise or whether he is subtly trying to cast suspicion around." and joins Huin in refuting Boro's interpretation of his (=Legate's) vote analysis. Apparently cross-posted with Huin and lauded him for thinking along similar lines. Boro replied to Huin's defense of Legate with suspicion of Huin. However concludes with "I think Legate looks the worst out of the two (him and Huey). So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Legate would simply attach himself to an innocent Huey to keep a smaller list of suspects." Boro also later continued by elaborating on his suspicions of Legate's vote analysis. Boro was worried about his own tunnel vision on Legate, and noting it had elicited replies only from Legate and Huin. In his list, Huinesoron suspected Boro and was undecided about Legate. Legate continued arguing with Boro whether his vote analysis makes sense or not. Huin voted for Boro. Legate mentioned both Boro and Pitch as his vote options. Boro defended his suspicions of Legate to Huin. Boro then said "Legate's response does give me a slight bit of caution and glad I decided to step back. I do find his analysis still suspicious, but these are good points to my belaboring the point throughout the day [quotes Legate]". In the same post, he focuses the attack on Huin. Huin kept arguing with Boro after his bedtime. Legate clarified his suspicion of Huin to Pitch that he felt better about Huin but he was overall still suspicious. Boro questioned Huin's suspicion phrasings (sorry for a bad summary, the post is #182) and voted for Huin, casting the first vote. Legate was unsure what to think of Boro backing of him, and felt like Boro and Hui's mutual votes were a call to action for him to pick a side. He said he was more likely to vote for Boro out of the two. Boro replied to my yelling about their triangle drama "I don't think I've erred today. If I have then may death reveal my true heart." Legate backtracked a little on saying he preferred to vote Boro over Hui, however I'm not sure why. Boro defended his vote for Hui while stating to Legate he was still suspicious of him too. Legate voted for Huinesoron, saying "Okay, I think I am simply lacking the attention span to do anything more than vote. I will just go with Hui. Let's hope that if he dies, it will help untangle several questions." His vote was the fourth, sealing Huin's fate, but he likely thought it was only the third, because he xed with yours truly. Legate still defended himself against me exclaiming he was supposed to be pro-Huinesoron, saying he'd suspected him from Day1. After Huinesoron had got 6 votes, Boro posted the infamous one-liner "See what I mean Legate, how the 1st vote can start a bandwagon?" to which Legate replied "What's this, some sort of flaunting, when it even was not a point I disagreed on?" Legate also commented "Last moments are making me brutally doubt Boro and what all this was about." which is interesting, because didn't he doubt Boro the whole Day? Boro's last post for the Day was: "No I mean how I'm very nervous that everyone after me voted for Huey, after everyone kept saying it wasn't a "likely possibility." So, in my opinion either Huey is a wolf and his 2 mates bussed him. Or I'm suddenly fearing that he is as he says, just an ordo, and all these Huey votes at the end (Lommy, Legate, Pitch, Lottie) that 3 of you are wolves." Which just rubs me the wrong way for multiple reasons, because obviously he was disregarding the possibility that even if Huin was innocent, wolves could have voted for someone else too (and lo! you know who did? Our known wolf Sally.) Furthermore he absolutely fails at taking any responsibility for his own vote and - yes I will say it - scheming. Okay. This didn't clarify very much. I think it could be two innocents butting heads (statistically rather unlikely at this point), a wolf targeting an innocent (but who is the monster and who is the maaaaaan? /end Disney reference), or hell, even wolf-on-wolf. Boro and Legate: would you care, once again, to clearly state why on earth didn't you follow through with your main suspicions (each other) but instead went for your secondary suspicion (Huin)? I mean, if I had conspiracy corner with Lommy, I would say wolf-Boro and wolf-Legate decided to go all loud wolf-on-wolf on Day2, knowing their mate Sally would be under fire for the Form kill, hoping to give the village something else to talk to. Hence Boro's disappointed-sounding note that no one but Hui was paying attention. As it came time for voting, they both conveniently decided to got for innocent Hui who had gotten entangled in their argument as the third wheel. UGH. I wish that had clarified something. I feel like I've been stuck in square one the whole Day. It's getting late again, and I'm still unsure who the heckle are the wolves. Just saying I'm gonna x with everyone.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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- can you believe we've never actually been wolves together? (I also haven't been wolves with Nogrod, or Greenie. What's the statistic likelihood for all of that? I think the universe has something against giving me chances to plot IRL.)Quote:
Pffttt it's getting late and I should go to sleep. I might quite literally have to leave village in your hands, guys. Give me a moment to debate with myself who to vote. Pitch looks the worst in regards to Sally. Boro seems pretty dodgy upon rereading Day2, like I daresay he looks (even) worse than Legate for his antics. Legate might be the best compromise because I still think the likeliest packs are either Boro-Legate or Pitch-Legate. I mean statistically that's probably our best bet. And I can't honestly judge Legate very well; I always suck at reading him, probably wilfully because (honesty hour?) I hate playing on a different side from him so I usually just go "well he doesn't look too suspicious so I'm just gonna assume he's innocent like me and ignore him" unless he does something blatantly wolfy. I'm however aware that at this point of the game the village can't afford such an attitude from me, so I'm wondering if I shouldn't just risk living with a very grumpy Legate toMorrow if he's innocent and play it safe and vote for him. edit: xed with Pitch and Boro
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Anyway, like I said, it's late ++Legate Errrr.... To the rest of you, choose well. I don't mind if you choose Pitch or Boro instead. It was a threeway coin-toss for me, really. The deadline will tell which way this goes. Just please don't lynch me, because that would be a really stupid thing to do and secure a wolf victory. I guess if the wolves win after toDay, I'm not gonna complain because I can't claim I know who they are. Well done, to whom it may concern. edit: xed with Boro and I guess that can be an honest reasoning if you're innocent, but it doesn't really convince me you're not in cahoots with Legate. Anyway, good night and Night if there will be one!
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
Last edited by Thinlómien; 04-27-2021 at 03:41 PM. |
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#10 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Morsul > Pitch
Lommy> Legate
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Now is this Wolflómien dissociating herself from Legwolf or what? But why wouldn't she just vote me and be done with it?
Ok, I forgot earlier that the Dead also vote, so the wolves can't just all pile on Morsul's early vote and win. The Dead obviously started the Day suspecting me heavily, and not being privy to their counsels I can't know whether that has changed in the least, I can only urge them, implore them to reconsider. Quote:
To be honest, the only one whose innocence I'm sure of right now is myself, so if it comes to a clinch, I'll vote to save myself. As for the rest: Morsul feels rash but fair to me (if you're a wolf, kudos!). Lommy I get both foul and fair vibes from. Boro - when others talk about him, I feel wary; when he talks himself, I want to trust him, but then we all know that my judgment so far hasn't been the best. Legate - darned if I know. I could see him being a wolf with either Lommy or Boro. If I'm right about Morsul and Soriman is innocent as per the Dead he almost has to be, unless it's Lommy/Boro... DSLSKFHDKJGHAÖFHG
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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Laconic Loreman
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Fenris Penguin
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#13 | |
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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He has since mellowed a fair bit, maybe because you and Legate weren't falling out of your chairs voting me. After his Shakespearean monologue I'm really at a loss what to think. If one of Boro and Morsul is a misguided innocent and the other a wolf leading him along, my money would be on Ordul/Wolfomir (sorry Morsul, not meaning to slight you!) - although it bears remembering that 'misguided innocent' is just what sally called Morsul. But actually, if neither of them is a wolf the remaining two must be Legate and Lommy, in which case why haven't they voted yet?
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#14 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Just for clarification I do not remember that. I have vague memories of playing before. For what it’s worth I can’t retract but reading everything today something isn’t sitting right. I was less sure today than yesterday and should’ve held my vote. While I was 70-80% sure pitch was wolf that more like a coin flip now. Mostly because I can see how an innocent would follow Sally’s little breadcrumbs.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#15 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I can imagine a pack of Boro/Morsul, Boro/Lommy, Pitch/Lommy or Pitch/Boro. Pitch/Boro is a little too aggressive a combination but theoretically possible - anyway, like I said, I think getting one Wolf should hopefully clarify things also on other fronts.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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![]() Mind you, that would mean both of them pushed the Huiwagon to save sally. That would be a pretty brazen concerted action from a pair of wolves. I need to go back and look at what happened there.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#17 | ||
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#18 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Double post. Yes both voted Hui and I noted Lommy telling me to not bandwagon myself then voted the same person as me(Hui Day1)
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#19 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, hate to say this folks, but it is getting late. I would sort of prefer to vote, well, early, even though I also see why toDay is not the best Day. But if my brain is in the process of switching itself off (which I am afraid it may be), I am going to steadily lose the ability to trust myself to make rational decisions.
I would like to hear what Soriman has to say for sure, but then... I certainly do not like the idea of the responsibility of casting a vote early, but I guess somebody would have to do that. I better think.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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Laconic Loreman
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Now everyone knows I'm a bold and insane wolf, consider this...knowing that I saw this and responded to Kath as I did yesterday. Do you think if I was a wolf I wouldn't be all over this in trying to make it look like Kath dreamed me an innocent and therefor be focusing on "proving" that today? But I can't be sure of this, so I haven't been focusing on trying to "prove" Kath dreamed me innocent and I think Legate's analysis of her dreams looked fair/made sense. Quote:
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You claim that my post is wanting to continue to talk about Huey's messages today. And I say look at my other posts, have I been completely focused on Huey's messages? I don't think so. I brought it up again because I saw your comment as an attempt to cause confusion about the info Huey has given us. Edit: This novel crossed with a bunch of others. Oh this is going to be a mad deadline. I'm considering voting within the next hour.
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Fenris Penguin
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Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Believed her because she hadn't claimed to have dreamed me, so she could still have been the Seer. What made me sure she was a fraud was when she wavered about Morsul, whom she had claimed to have dreamed.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#22 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Is it me or is there a lot of theory packs about Me, Pitch, and Boro and a couple that toss Legate or Lommy with someone else. But no one is talking about the possibility of Lommy/Legate everyone’s making decent point but that possibility seems to be missing. I dunno that’s weird to me. Maybe I missed it.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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