TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Pitchwife]

I've had a brief look through Morsul's and sally's posts.


Morsul:

It struck me that on D1 he had Kath among his top suspects for her early vote, admitting it could have been based on her time zone but she could be using this as an easy defense.

Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much?


He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack including sally under the assumption that he was the Seer and dreamed her. If, on the other hand, the pack had killed Form to frame sally they'd want to make sure to keep mentioning how the kill pointed to her, which could be what Morsul is doing.


He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third.


Last not last, I'm not a fan of his plans in his first post toDay, especially not on the "let's all vote together" as above.



sally:
Nothing at all on D1. D2 she trusted Boro and myself on gut feeling, suspected Lommy (again, gut feeling) and Lottie (found her too agressive for an Ordlote), no idea about Huri, Sori and Legate.
She thought I had some great points about Lottie, found her more suspicious the more she talked and ended up voting her.


Now if sally is a wolf who was pressed for time yesterDay, piggybacking on my points against Lottie would have been an easy way to justify her vote, and also to justify going after Lottie rather than Lommy if Lommy is another wolf. Also buddying up to me.



It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I've had a brief look through Morsul
Morsul:

Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much?

Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Form

Ghost

Ahh, ok I take that as a no the dead's message is not about last night's kill.

Oof...I've racked my brain too much on this so going to let it be for now and think on the task at hand.

Originally Posted by Pitch

It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.

I see Morsul's early vote as a hasty plunge, without knowing what else could be learned from today. It's not something I would do, but Morsul isn't me, so is it something a hasty Wolf!Morsul would do?

I'm more worried of sally's reaction, which looked like a concession and resignation that she will be lynched today. I just can't see an innocent sally reacting that way, even one that has been very busy so far, because she would know that if she is innocent and lynched, without the Ranger, it's over.

Particularly with she stated she was "inclined to believe Morsul is a misguided innocent" which means, an innocent sally *should* have started suspecting Pitch. But she does not do this, does not say anything about Pitch, just seemed resigned to her fate and tried to guilt trip us into thinking it would be too obvious to kill Form Night 1 if she was a wolf.

This could mean, Morsul is a wolf who voted for his mate sally, because there was already a plan to sacrifice herself if she was in trouble today. Although Morsul's hasty vote doesn't seem to be wolf-on-wolf, and if they are both wolves, why would Morsul not vote for Pitch? *seconded the bleurgh*

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.

Yes, and an early vote toDay is much more dangerous than an early vote on D1. You realise if the wolves all pile on your vote and sally is first to get 4 votes, then even if the rest of us all vote a wolf it's still game over in case she's innocent, right?

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yes, and an early vote toDay is much more dangerous than an early vote on D1. You realise if the wolves all pile on your vote and sally is first to get 4 votes, then even if the rest of us all vote a wolf it's still game over in case she's innocent, right?

They already would have.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

They already would have.

Fair point.


Then again, if sally's #316 and #318 are a last ditch attempt by satansawerewolf to sway toDay's voting, who are her packmates? I know I'm not a wolf, I'm leaning Boro isn't either, I don't know about Morsul but he has been gunning for her two Days straight. What does she have to gain from keeping us around? Boro and I understand, if she figures we're more likely to trust her, but Morsul?
More importantly, why would she want us to vote any of Kath, Legate, Lommy or Sori? If Boro and Morsul aren't her packmates, they must be among these four, so why put them up for voting?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by sally

No, but they are fallible. Remember, our seer is still among us somewhere, so the dead have nothing to go on but their opinions.

This is just not true. They don't know anyone's roles for sure, but they get snippets of info from the moddesses to work with, and they thought these important enough to send Form as a Ghost to pass them on to us. As per these messages, if Boro has interpreted them correctly (which Form confirmed in #287), at least one of five people who got votes on D1 is a wolf. Eliminating known innocents, that leaves you, Morsul and me. So?

[Soriman the Whide]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Morsul:
He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack...

He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third.

Yes exactly, I don't think Sally should be the focus for today.
I do not believe Morsul is a wolf and think his bandwagon excuse for an early vote holds some sway when you consider the wolves will win if we get this wrong.


Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?

Yes.

[satansaloser2005]

For Boro, I wasn't resigned so much as in a lot of pain and didn't want to lash out unnecessarily, so I went out of my way not to blame Morsul.

I still think Morsul is a misguided innocent, but that misguided vote will cost us the game. Don't make his mistake. Vote for almost literally anyone else.

(AKA Here I am again.)

[satansaloser2005]

Not doing quote yet, but a list for now. Obviously I was wrong about Lottie, and we have more information now, so I've done a little rearranging. Sticking with two categories since it's later in the Day.

Would vote....
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Sori

Wouldn't vote....
Boro
Morsul
Pitch

Quotes incoming.

[Pitchwife]

OK, sally, if I understand you right then you, Boro and Morsul are all innocent, as well as myself (which I knew already). Of course I'd be happy to believe that.

But then what of the message of the Dead that seems to say one of you, Morsul and me is a wolf? Do the Dead lie?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Can I be honest I don’t care if we win or lose. This ghost thing is fun. Form is just top notch on the quotes

Well I care! So stop voting for me! I do love the quotes though. This is indeed phenomenal.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also if Lommy en't innocent she's faking it well enough for an Oscar.

Which she's done before, so I'm not surprised.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

First off: feeling really bad about the Huin lynch, on multiple levels. I can't believe I noticed Form's death made him more likely innocent and ignored that I find that every time I ignore reason in favour of gut-feeling OR ignore gut-feeling in favour of reason I pick the wrong thing to follow. I would say, I'm sorry Huin, but since this worked in your favour last time (me ignoring your wolvish vibes because I had no actual proof you were a wolf, and you were), let's call it... even?

Yeah, why is that? Perhaps because you're a furry person? My gut is only supported by Lommy's readiness to go along with lynches she herself has disagreed with if they suit her.

Also Morsul!!!! Why are you voting so early!! When you just said yourself we have to think carefully toDay??? As far as I see, you haven't really spent much time toDay analysing anybody or wondering why Lottie was killed. You just want us all to follow your gut? Geez, I don't like this. Okay, possibly a wolf would not be so brazen but you're narrowing our options on a whim and I don't like that. Or maybe Sally looks like a convenient target others might get behind because she's hardly been here but she's been suspected? Red flags. (I still don't have much of an opinion on Sally, since she hasn't been around. But I see she has a posted toDay already. Good.)

I don't know. I'm immediately suspicious of anyone who's willing to dig a trench and go hard from the beginning of the Day - that's what someone who knows who are on their side and who aren't would do. As has been pointed out, toDay is likely crucial. Therefore the wolves need to direct the village to lynch one of their own. They can go hard. They probably decided last Night who they're gunning for toDay. The rest of us can't afford tunnel vision like that, we have to actually think.

I agree with her reasoning regarding Morsul, but again, I think he's just a misguided innocent. I think Lommy is jumping too hard to my defense, which is in itself another bit of suspicion.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Can someone explain to me that since when is one of Morsul, Sally and Pitch a werewolf?

And since this seems to come from Form's posts, how would the dead know? Since we don't have a dead seer? I doubt G55 would straight up tell them who the wolves are.

Either I'm slow or there's something straight up shady going on with Boro and Morsul.

Again making a good point, but it doesn't make me trust her any more.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That's only fair. But I do answer with, you are also a steersman. Steering is in my nature just as much as it is in yours. I know where I'm steering, sometimes it is not straight, sometimes there are rapids ahead, and therefor it's better to take the longer path. Sometimes you must brave the rapids and risk losing folk with a true-heart in them. One thing I'm certain of, is I do not wish to be like my namesake and go straight over the falls of Rauros.

I agree there is more to do today than interpreting Form's messages and I like that there will be other conversations. For toDay, Legate perhaps it is a comfort to you that my steering is done. As Boromir says to Aragorn after Moria, "Lead on!" My flaw, I must often be reminded that 2 steersman, both with a good and loyal heart can pull in opposite directions. So my question to you, steersman, where are you going and what is your flaw?

I could wax poetic about my suspicions of Legate, but honestly, Boro encapsulates it well here.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, sally, if I understand you right then you, Boro and Morsul are all innocent, as well as myself (which I knew already). Of course I'd be happy to believe that.

But then what of the message of the Dead that seems to say one of you, Morsul and me is a wolf? Do the Dead lie?

No, but they are fallible. Remember, our seer is still among us somewhere, so the dead have nothing to go on but their opinions.


x'd since my last, and breaking for lunch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, writing as I go...

Originally Posted by Kath

GhostForm's post in #276 ... I'm struggling. Is it that on Day 1 everyone had a choice, and then the reference to the little gardener - could that be Greenie. A Little Green. So then lots and none at all - lots of people voted for her but none at all were wolves? We already know Hui and Lottie, who voted Greenie, are innocent, so does that speak in Legate's favour possibly?

I thought gardener referred to Lottie with her gardening, but I have zero idea what the rest of the post is supposed to mean.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Boro my only concern is FormerForm’s confirmation comes after your post and mine.

The question is if it’s confirming your interpretation or my vote.

That is exactly what I have been wondering about from the morning. I think we have one Ghost and a hundred interpreters, and everybody seems to be operating with the assumption that what they said is correct.

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Alright my vote for Lottie I think proves my innocence, I know it was a stange thing to switch my vote to Lottie over Huin. I thought that Huin was likely a wolf and if he was a wolf then lottie must be one too (sorry lottie my bad) and I felt like Huin was a stronger player to have as an ally if I was wrong.

WHAT? That does not make any sense whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I’m known for hard to follow logic but this defense is far beyond me.

Word.

Soriman, are you aware that by that logic, your vote for person A is completely dependent on the fact that person B is a Wolf - something you would not know? (And they were not.) But most of all, it say nothing whatsoever about your innocence or guilt.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

But the main point is they agreed without voting. I think we have a wolf trying to figure out what to do. Vote for their packmate or wait for a better bandwagon.

Hm, but so by your logic, if the Wolves agreed what to do, they would have a bandwagon ready. Which is exactly what you are doing.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Actually, as per Form's message we don't know whether there were one or more werewolves among the "five you have measured", do we?

Originally Posted by Form

Originally Posted by The Council of Elrond
'We know not for certain,' answered Elrond sadly.

Okay, so this at least may be one clear clarification for the whole Day. But so that would mean at least somebody in "the five". But I would still like to make it clear, the five are the people who got votes minus Greenie, or those who did not get vote, who were five? Form confirmed several times Boro but was it specifically about this, or was it that he was roughly correct in terms of the whole posts he spoke? I would just like to have one clear statement on this because that may be relevant not only toDay, but for the future. And I don't think it has been said 100% clearly.

EDIT: x-ed with some

[Soriman the Whide]

Guys don't waste your vote on me I'm harmless I swear, yes perhaps my arguments are backwards and minimalistic but honestly I couldn't eat someone!
I was guided to vote lottie when my gut feeling was Huin, snippets of Legate's posts (I remember #168 standing out) influenced this and because of this I am wary of him.

I'm not going to vote for Sally today after being so wrong about Huin and Lottie.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

l
I was guided to vote lottie when my gut feeling was Huin, snippets of Legate's posts (I remember #168 standing out) influenced this and because of this I am wary of him.

Legate didn’t vote Lottie though. Also you voted in 167.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wouldn't vote....
Boro
Morsul
Pitch

Assuming she's not planning to self-vote, then sally is going completely off-piste from the message we think we've got from GhostForm. sally, can you explain what you think he meant by the quotes instead then?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Yes exactly, I don't think Sally should be the focus for today.

At least not the exclusive focus, and concentrating only on the trio implied by the Ghost (sally, Morsul, me) lets too many people sail under the radar unquestioned.

I can see sally and Lommy being in a pack, as Kath suggests (though obviously not with me).

I think I can also see a tandem between Kath and Morsul - Kath brought up the idea that Form's death points to sally, and Morsul keeps pushing it, also from the above trio Kath picks me and sally as her wolf choices but says nothing (as far as I see) about Morsul.


Actually, as per Form's message we don't know whether there were one or more werewolves among the "five you have measured", do we?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by The Council of Elrond

'We know not for certain,' answered Elrond sadly.

Ghost

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I think I can also see a tandem between Kath and Morsul - Kath brought up the idea that Form's death points to sally, and Morsul keeps pushing it, also from the above trio Kath picks me and sally as her wolf choices but says nothing (as far as I see) about Morsul.

Fair point!

Morsul:
Day 1:
Post 14 states Hui is least suspicious. Many, myself included, found that a strong statement so early on. Post 19 this immediately switched as Morsul then thought Hui was focusing too much on their posts and that it would be a wolf pushing toward a bandwagon. I questioned the switch, more because saying Hui was least suspicious seemed odder to me than then moving to finding them suspicious later. Just seemed a very strong statement so early on. Morsul clearly feels attacked and in post 43 says they'll probably vote Hui, I guess out of self-preservation. In post 55 also mentions Boro as a suspect for seeming convinced of Morsul's innocence. Bearing in mind this was all long after I'd voted, when I read through all this with the benefit of hindsight there is definitely a feel of annoyed innocent.
Voted Hui for seeming to bandwagon while saying they didn't want to.

Day 2:
Morsul is one of the first posters of the Day and immediately looks at Form. Concludes that the Night kill likely either makes sally a wolf, or it's a frame job. Found Lottie's vote for Greenie suspicious because it meant she'd voted against her previous suspicions. Not quite sure who is being referred to here:

Also the toss up slightly puts Huin into a tiny bit of suspicion because could’ve been saving a pack mate. But would she put her neck that far out for a pack mate on day 1?

List post 114 is odd, mostly because of the order of the suspects. So, they voted for Hui the Day before and are still suspicious, but have sally higher up the list despite just saying 'definitely needs to post more' about her. Made quite a good point I felt in post 129 but that's probably because it followed my thinking on the Form-Seer idea. I agree with post 145 and said something very similar - ends up with a wolf pack of sally/Lottie/Hui. With what we know now, could be a Morsulwolf hiding a packmates in with innocents. With that said, Morsul has been pretty focused on sally through the Day. And indeed has Lottie followed by sally at the top ones to vote for. sally being a wolf here doesn't mean Morsul isn't, especially as Lottie had been mentioned a lot through the Day and was quite a reasonable assumption for a Morsulwolf to think she'd get the votes over a sally packmate. But it is a relatively bold play and there was still definitely a chance of sally gaining votes. Then in post 154 backs right off Lottie.
Voted sally (first vote, so could be considered safe if wolf on wolf as it's the first one with no guarantee anyone would follow, and a lot of people talking about Lottie instead)

Day 3:
The 'plans' in Morsul's first post are the kind of thing that work in theory, but in practice? No. However, their point about an innocent voting the wrong person and the wolves jumping on it was a fair one. I understand the concern about throwing an early vote out, but Morsul votes sally not very long after this, and so far ... no jumping. Post 251 in conjunction with Boro uses Form's quotes to get to a suspect list of Morsul, sally, Pitch. However, in post 289 is then looking at a wolfpack of sally, Sori, Kath. Why the switch there Morsul, as I thought you'd agreed with Boro?
Voted sally.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Kath

Day 3:
The 'plans' in Morsul's first post are the kind of thing that work in theory, but in practice? No. However, their point about an innocent voting the wrong person and the wolves jumping on it was a fair one. I understand the concern about throwing an early vote out, but Morsul votes sally not very long after this, and so far ... no jumping. Post 251 in conjunction with Boro uses Form's quotes to get to a suspect list of Morsul, sally, Pitch. However, in post 289 is then looking at a wolfpack of sally, Sori, Kath. Why the switch there Morsul, as I thought you'd agreed with Boro?
Voted sally.

I agree one of them is a wolf(Sally) that leaves two I’m 80% sure Sorimon is the second it’s the third I’m far less confident on with no one going over 25% at most.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I agree one of them is a wolf(Sally) that leaves two I’m 80% sure Sorimon is the second it’s the third I’m far less confident on with no one going over 25% at most.

I've just worked this out, sorry. As in out of Morsul, sally, Pitch you're saying sally is the wolf and then working out who would be in the pack alongside. (Assuming it's not you of course ...)

I suppose it's just that we've no guarantee there is only one wolf in Morsul/sally/Pitch that had thrown me there.

Given Sori's strange posts it would be tempting to say wolf!

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Kath

I've just worked this out, sorry. As in out of Morsul, sally, Pitch you're saying sally is the wolf and then working out who would be in the pack alongside. (Assuming it's not you of course ...)

I suppose it's just that we've no guarantee there is only one wolf in Morsul/sally/Pitch that had thrown me there.

Given Sori's strange posts it would be tempting to say wolf!

Aye it Could be Sally and Pitch are packmates but I don’t have any screaming lights pointing at Pitch.

Also Sally the dead do get information it’s just as i understand the rules cryptic to them and then filtered through quotes to us. Like a weird game of telephone interpretation of an interpretation of an interpretation of a riddle. But certainly not nothing.