TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I feel like this like a game of 20 questions, Werewolf edition (Ooh. New game thread idea).

Or maybe a Ouija board?

Anyways, enjoy communing with the Dead!

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Ouija!

Heh

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

That’s probably a better interpretation. Mine would’ve been too easy.

So we’re thinking Sally or Pitch yes me too but I’m innocent. I really think this information taken with the strong possibility Form was killed as a seer...

I’ll take the plunge.

You know I was thinking this was quite a quick trigger and plunge, but spending a bit more thought about it, until there's anything else to learn from the ghost...

No matter what your role you wouldn't be voting for yourself, so if you are innocent, from your perspective at worst it's a 50/50 shot. And Form's death night 1 could certainly implicate sally as the wolf more than Pitch.

From my perspective, I can't take that plunge yet because worst case it's a 33% chance. I suppose it's possible 2 (or even 3! ) in this group is a wolf, but that might be way too hopeful because:

Originally Posted by A Conspiracy Unmasked

'I think,' answered Frodo slowly, 'that it was a good guess, as far as it goes.

So I have to proceed thinking there's only 1, and thus a 33% chance. What I do like about your quick vote is I'm very interested to see what sally and Pitch do in reacting to this information from the ghost.

Currently my best guess to the wolf among the three would go...

sally - because of Form being killed Night 1
Pitch - because he cautioned me yesterday about who I was trusting, but he himself has seemed to be pretty trusting towards me
Morsul - The quick vote for sally first struck me as suspicious, but also realizing to him it's a 50/50 shot, and quickly made up his mind sally's the wolf because Form being night killed.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, that was unexpected. I see my radar for gifteds is equal to my radar for wolves, unfortunately. Sorry, Lottie. I owe you one.

As for these accusations against me, I hope you don't think me foolish enough to kill someone suspecting me on the first night of a game. That's rather offensive, to be honest. I welcome accusations, though of course when I'm innocent, as I am now, votes not so much.

I think Morsul is more misguided than evil, though innocents can do just as much damage if acting on the wrong information, as he is now.

I'm currently very tired, though I will be around all of the rest of the day, so I'll see everyone again in the morning. Hopefully we can put this behind us and not lynch an innocent (read, me).

More thoughts on the thread later. For now, sleep.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As for these accusations against me, I hope you don't think me foolish enough to kill someone suspecting me on the first night of a game. That's rather offensive, to be honest. I welcome accusations, though of course when I'm innocent, as I am now, votes not so much.
.

I mean, what else would you say? As was pointed out with the dead being able to talk to us it’s important to take out the seeer as soon as possible for the wolves. Even if it means losing one of their own. In fact G55’s clarification that I missed probably wasn’t by the wolves since they’d know their roles more nicely. And that’s losing you to the DT isn’t actually a loss you gain power over what information they get and the ghost can give.

So killing seerForm would limit his dreams and even if you get killed for it you get control of the DT.

In a normal game your argument would hold more water. In a game with a ghost the strategy for the wolves needs and rewards aggression.

I stand by my vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To be honest after yesterDay, the Ghost appearing is a welcome relief. And yeah I have to second what others said, Form, you are nailing it. I figure that right now the Ghost may be probably asleep, which is a pity, because I'd have liked to ask a few things for clarification. I hope that before the Day is done the rest of us will also have the chance to interact more directly with the Ghost.

Since I started about this, one thing is that both Morsul and Boro have interpreted the last thing Form said as response to themselves, but which is it? And if the interpretation is what Boro said, is it that there is only 1 Wolf, or it is that there is at least one but there may be more? (I presume that - and this goes generally also for the future, if there is something important we misinterpret - the Ghost can say something that will address these when he appears.)

And one more remark while I am at the subject. I think the Ghost's first words were not just a greeting, but mainly a "take it slow" remark, especially in the response to Morsul's first-posts' action plans which, by the way, I don't endorse at all. And now he even sabotaged them himself by voting within like three seconds. That is nothing to say about voting sally, which may be a good idea, but now Morsul effectively forces everybody's hand, and that's just absolutely irresponsible (in the better case) before majority of the village had the chance to even discuss this. Does not help that first gets lynched and per Boro's and Morsul's interpretation of the Ghost's words, Morsul could be on the shortlist of Wolves.

Anyway, I also second Boro's request that if you, Gorlim (Forlim?) have any other information from "the council of Ilúvatar", you should tell us first before it gets buried under our own speculations. If the Dead have some speculation, then of course it is just a speculation, but if there is for example something relevant you have concluded, anything that might shed light on anything is helpful.

Otherwise however, I think we should not just tunnel-vision on the Ghost toDay, however nice it is. We better catch a Wolf toDay and also in the future Days, and the Ranger dying is actually a big setback in these numbers.

Which brings me to one question we should look at - so why did Lottie get targeted? I still assume the Wolves primarily go for the Seer (and I don't assume they thought her the Ranger and killed her for that, unless she somewhere advertised it blatantly and they saw it - but I don't see why a Ranger should advertise...). The puzzling part about it is that she voted for two innocents on the previous Days, so the Wolves would have no reason to kill her based on those. I will look into it.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul. Whoa, somebody is around!

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

effectively forces everybody's hand,

Yeah, basically. It forces the wolves to hide and bus one of their own or vote in tandem trying to save them revealing themselves. Or to try to hide more effectively they have to avoid bandwagonning. Either way their power is broken. I had originally put my vote in my first post, at that point it was a much more desperate shot in the dark. FormerForm’s information bears out my suspicion and I can more confidently make the vote.

Edit: I’m around now but I work today noon to 8(DL is 7pm for me) so I’ll have much less interaction throughout the day.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Since I started about this, one thing is that both Morsul and Boro have interpreted the last thing Form said as response to themselves, but which is it? And if the interpretation is what Boro said, is it that there is only 1 Wolf, or it is that there is at least one but there may be more? (I presume that - and this goes generally also for the future, if there is something important we misinterpret - the Ghost can say something that will address these when he appears.)

To be clear, I still don't trust you, but I'm putting those problems aside for toDay, because, in my opinion, we have to make the best choice from Morsul, Pitch, or sally if we want to fight on another day.

And in my situation with the limited time today, this will likely be my last lengthy post. I was hoping to have another message, if there is one, but that was too hopeful.

Yes, I took Form's response, that at least 1 wolf is among those who received votes on Day 1. But I'm going to operate under the assumption that it is 1. If sally is a wolf, I don't think this should exclude the possibility Morsul or Pitch being one (Or if Morsul's a wolf, that wouldn't exclude sally or Pitch...etc). But if we make it to that event of getting 1 wolf today, Ghost!Form's message about Day 1 wouldn't implicate the other 2 either.

(RL note: I will be pretty much away for the rest of the Day. I was planning on having to vote super early, but I will have my mobile device. So at least I'll still be able to check in and vote from that. This also means - maybe to the delight of many, this will be my last "lengthy" post of the day. )

[Boromir88]

I lied, because I see a confused Lommy...

Originally Posted by Of the Beginning of Days

Therefore at the sixth hour of the First Day,

Of the Beginning of Day, the First Day, meaning this is a message pertaining to Day 1.

Originally Posted by Not At Home

In the Lake-town we have always elected

Mentioning an "election", or in our case a vote. The message pertains to something about Day 1s vote.

Originally Posted by The Riders of Rohan

and five you have measured ere the

"Five you have measured". To be measured, to consider, to deliberate. The 5 we deliberated lynching Day 1.

Morsul
sally
Pitch
Huey
Lottie

Greenie is not included, because she was the Day 1 lynch and revealed innocent. So of the 5 others who we measured (considered) to lynch...

Originally Posted by Three is Company

one of the Big People

Originally Posted by Many Meetings

there are wargs and were-wolves

One of them "there are wargs and were-wolves." As Lottie and Huey have since died and revealed not to be a werewolf, that leaves sally, Pitch, Morsul.

And Form responded after with what looks like a confirmation:

Originally Posted by A Conspiracy Unmasked

'I think,' answered Frodo slowly, 'that it was a good guess, as far as it goes.

Please don't make me explain again. That was a pain on my phone.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Ainulindalë

Then Ilúvatar arose, and the Ainur perceived that he smiled; and he lifted up his left hand, and a new theme began amid the storm, like and yet unlike to the former theme, and it gathered power and had new beauty.

Originally Posted by The Shadow of the Past

'Last night you began to tell me strange things about my ring, Gandalf,' he said. 'And then you stopped, because you said that such matters were best left until daylight. Don't you think you had better finish now?

Ghost

[Boromir88]

Now that's not at all a reaction I would expect from an innocent sally. You seem almost resigned to the fact you're going to be lynched today. And if you are innocent than I don't think you would be trying to guilt trip and make us feel uneasy that you now act resigned to your fate.

Originally Posted by sally

As for these accusations against me, I hope you don't think me foolish enough to kill someone suspecting me on the first night of a game. That's rather offensive, to be honest. I welcome accusations, though of course when I'm innocent, as I am now, votes not so much.

I never like this defense "Do you think I'd be that foolish/dumb to Night kill someone suspecting/voting for me. That's offensive." It is very much a guilt trip, to try to make us feel bad that a wolf "couldn't be that foolish/obvious." Why is it foolish for wolves to target someone if they suspect they are the seer?

Hindsight reveals he wasn't, but that doesn't change the fact he was the wolves first kill and they don't know who the Seer is. If he turned out to be the seer, I guarantee you (if you are a wolf) wouldn't be trying to make us feel like we're being offensive. We've all done it (well, excluding Soriman, hopefully we haven't scared you away! We are very odd people and ghosts). We've all thought we picked up a sign from someone at some point about their role, like "Boro has to be the seer" and if the wolves thought that Night 1, I'm dead instead of Form.

What particularly doesn't make sense is...

Originally Posted by sally

I think Morsul is more misguided than evil, though innocents can do just as much damage if acting on the wrong information, as he is now.

So, knowing that out of 3 (Morsul, sally, Pitch) at least one is a wolf. When Morsul learns this, his reaction was a quick trigger response "I'm innocent, it's not me, so going with the 50/50 plunge for the person most suspicious out of the two. Which, doesn't say anything about his role, but it is an understandable reaction to have.

Your reaction is quite different.

Originally Posted by sally

Hopefully we can put this behind us and not lynch an innocent (read, me).

Ok, understandable, like Morsul this wouldn't say anything about your role. But what I don't understand is you are inclined to think Morsul is a misguided innocent, but say nothing about Pitch? So, if at least 1 of 3 has to be a wolf, from your perspective it's not you, you don't think it's Morsul, which means an innocent sally would start suspecting Pitch? Yet you do not do this, your reaction is very much resigned to the fact you will be lynched. An innocent sally in our situation knowing we really need a wolf today, wouldn't just sacrifice herself like this.

So...are you a sacrificial wolf, because Pitch is also a wolf and you are hoping we move away from Pitch after your lynch?

[Pitchwife]

I've had a brief look through Morsul's and sally's posts.


Morsul:

It struck me that on D1 he had Kath among his top suspects for her early vote, admitting it could have been based on her time zone but she could be using this as an easy defense.

Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much?


He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack including sally under the assumption that he was the Seer and dreamed her. If, on the other hand, the pack had killed Form to frame sally they'd want to make sure to keep mentioning how the kill pointed to her, which could be what Morsul is doing.


He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third.


Last not last, I'm not a fan of his plans in his first post toDay, especially not on the "let's all vote together" as above.



sally:
Nothing at all on D1. D2 she trusted Boro and myself on gut feeling, suspected Lommy (again, gut feeling) and Lottie (found her too agressive for an Ordlote), no idea about Huri, Sori and Legate.
She thought I had some great points about Lottie, found her more suspicious the more she talked and ended up voting her.


Now if sally is a wolf who was pressed for time yesterDay, piggybacking on my points against Lottie would have been an easy way to justify her vote, and also to justify going after Lottie rather than Lommy if Lommy is another wolf. Also buddying up to me.



It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I've had a brief look through Morsul
Morsul:

Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much?

Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Form

Ghost

Ahh, ok I take that as a no the dead's message is not about last night's kill.

Oof...I've racked my brain too much on this so going to let it be for now and think on the task at hand.

Originally Posted by Pitch

It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.

I see Morsul's early vote as a hasty plunge, without knowing what else could be learned from today. It's not something I would do, but Morsul isn't me, so is it something a hasty Wolf!Morsul would do?

I'm more worried of sally's reaction, which looked like a concession and resignation that she will be lynched today. I just can't see an innocent sally reacting that way, even one that has been very busy so far, because she would know that if she is innocent and lynched, without the Ranger, it's over.

Particularly with she stated she was "inclined to believe Morsul is a misguided innocent" which means, an innocent sally *should* have started suspecting Pitch. But she does not do this, does not say anything about Pitch, just seemed resigned to her fate and tried to guilt trip us into thinking it would be too obvious to kill Form Night 1 if she was a wolf.

This could mean, Morsul is a wolf who voted for his mate sally, because there was already a plan to sacrifice herself if she was in trouble today. Although Morsul's hasty vote doesn't seem to be wolf-on-wolf, and if they are both wolves, why would Morsul not vote for Pitch? *seconded the bleurgh*

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.

Yes, and an early vote toDay is much more dangerous than an early vote on D1. You realise if the wolves all pile on your vote and sally is first to get 4 votes, then even if the rest of us all vote a wolf it's still game over in case she's innocent, right?

[Soriman the Whide]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Morsul:
He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack...

He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third.

Yes exactly, I don't think Sally should be the focus for today.
I do not believe Morsul is a wolf and think his bandwagon excuse for an early vote holds some sway when you consider the wolves will win if we get this wrong.


Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?

Yes.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Yes exactly, I don't think Sally should be the focus for today.

At least not the exclusive focus, and concentrating only on the trio implied by the Ghost (sally, Morsul, me) lets too many people sail under the radar unquestioned.

I can see sally and Lommy being in a pack, as Kath suggests (though obviously not with me).

I think I can also see a tandem between Kath and Morsul - Kath brought up the idea that Form's death points to sally, and Morsul keeps pushing it, also from the above trio Kath picks me and sally as her wolf choices but says nothing (as far as I see) about Morsul.


Actually, as per Form's message we don't know whether there were one or more werewolves among the "five you have measured", do we?