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#1 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,512
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![]() Anyways, enjoy communing with the Dead!
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#3 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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No matter what your role you wouldn't be voting for yourself, so if you are innocent, from your perspective at worst it's a 50/50 shot. And Form's death night 1 could certainly implicate sally as the wolf more than Pitch. From my perspective, I can't take that plunge yet because worst case it's a 33% chance. I suppose it's possible 2 (or even 3! ![]() Quote:
Currently my best guess to the wolf among the three would go... sally - because of Form being killed Night 1 Pitch - because he cautioned me yesterday about who I was trusting, but he himself has seemed to be pretty trusting towards me Morsul - The quick vote for sally first struck me as suspicious, but also realizing to him it's a 50/50 shot, and quickly made up his mind sally's the wolf because Form being night killed.
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Fenris Penguin
Last edited by Boromir88; 04-24-2021 at 07:27 PM. Reason: Edit: assigning the quote from Ghost!Form |
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#4 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Well, that was unexpected. I see my radar for gifteds is equal to my radar for wolves, unfortunately. Sorry, Lottie. I owe you one.
As for these accusations against me, I hope you don't think me foolish enough to kill someone suspecting me on the first night of a game. That's rather offensive, to be honest. I welcome accusations, though of course when I'm innocent, as I am now, votes not so much. I think Morsul is more misguided than evil, though innocents can do just as much damage if acting on the wrong information, as he is now. I'm currently very tired, though I will be around all of the rest of the day, so I'll see everyone again in the morning. Hopefully we can put this behind us and not lynch an innocent (read, me). More thoughts on the thread later. For now, sleep.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#5 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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So killing seerForm would limit his dreams and even if you get killed for it you get control of the DT. In a normal game your argument would hold more water. In a game with a ghost the strategy for the wolves needs and rewards aggression. I stand by my vote.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#6 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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To be honest after yesterDay, the Ghost appearing is a welcome relief. And yeah I have to second what others said, Form, you are nailing it. I figure that right now the Ghost may be probably asleep, which is a pity, because I'd have liked to ask a few things for clarification. I hope that before the Day is done the rest of us will also have the chance to interact more directly with the Ghost.
Since I started about this, one thing is that both Morsul and Boro have interpreted the last thing Form said as response to themselves, but which is it? And if the interpretation is what Boro said, is it that there is only 1 Wolf, or it is that there is at least one but there may be more? (I presume that - and this goes generally also for the future, if there is something important we misinterpret - the Ghost can say something that will address these when he appears.) And one more remark while I am at the subject. I think the Ghost's first words were not just a greeting, but mainly a "take it slow" remark, especially in the response to Morsul's first-posts' action plans which, by the way, I don't endorse at all. And now he even sabotaged them himself by voting within like three seconds. That is nothing to say about voting sally, which may be a good idea, but now Morsul effectively forces everybody's hand, and that's just absolutely irresponsible (in the better case) before majority of the village had the chance to even discuss this. Does not help that first gets lynched and per Boro's and Morsul's interpretation of the Ghost's words, Morsul could be on the shortlist of Wolves. Anyway, I also second Boro's request that if you, Gorlim (Forlim?) have any other information from "the council of Ilúvatar", you should tell us first before it gets buried under our own speculations. If the Dead have some speculation, then of course it is just a speculation, but if there is for example something relevant you have concluded, anything that might shed light on anything is helpful. Otherwise however, I think we should not just tunnel-vision on the Ghost toDay, however nice it is. We better catch a Wolf toDay and also in the future Days, and the Ranger dying is actually a big setback in these numbers. Which brings me to one question we should look at - so why did Lottie get targeted? I still assume the Wolves primarily go for the Seer (and I don't assume they thought her the Ranger and killed her for that, unless she somewhere advertised it blatantly and they saw it - but I don't see why a Ranger should advertise...). The puzzling part about it is that she voted for two innocents on the previous Days, so the Wolves would have no reason to kill her based on those. I will look into it. EDIT: x-ed with Morsul. Whoa, somebody is around!
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#7 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Yeah, basically. It forces the wolves to hide and bus one of their own or vote in tandem trying to save them revealing themselves. Or to try to hide more effectively they have to avoid bandwagonning. Either way their power is broken. I had originally put my vote in my first post, at that point it was a much more desperate shot in the dark. FormerForm’s information bears out my suspicion and I can more confidently make the vote.
Edit: I’m around now but I work today noon to 8(DL is 7pm for me) so I’ll have much less interaction throughout the day.
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Morsul the Resurrected Last edited by Morsul the Dark; 04-25-2021 at 03:43 AM. |
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#8 | |
Laconic Loreman
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And in my situation with the limited time today, this will likely be my last lengthy post. I was hoping to have another message, if there is one, but that was too hopeful. Yes, I took Form's response, that at least 1 wolf is among those who received votes on Day 1. But I'm going to operate under the assumption that it is 1. If sally is a wolf, I don't think this should exclude the possibility Morsul or Pitch being one (Or if Morsul's a wolf, that wouldn't exclude sally or Pitch...etc). But if we make it to that event of getting 1 wolf today, Ghost!Form's message about Day 1 wouldn't implicate the other 2 either. (RL note: I will be pretty much away for the rest of the Day. I was planning on having to vote super early, but I will have my mobile device. So at least I'll still be able to check in and vote from that. This also means - maybe to the delight of many, this will be my last "lengthy" post of the day. ![]()
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Fenris Penguin
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#9 | ||||||
Laconic Loreman
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I lied, because I see a confused Lommy...
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Morsul sally Pitch Huey Lottie Greenie is not included, because she was the Day 1 lynch and revealed innocent. So of the 5 others who we measured (considered) to lynch... Quote:
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And Form responded after with what looks like a confirmation: Quote:
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Fenris Penguin
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#10 | ||
Dead Serious
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#11 | |||
Laconic Loreman
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Now that's not at all a reaction I would expect from an innocent sally. You seem almost resigned to the fact you're going to be lynched today. And if you are innocent than I don't think you would be trying to guilt trip and make us feel uneasy that you now act resigned to your fate.
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Hindsight reveals he wasn't, but that doesn't change the fact he was the wolves first kill and they don't know who the Seer is. If he turned out to be the seer, I guarantee you (if you are a wolf) wouldn't be trying to make us feel like we're being offensive. We've all done it (well, excluding Soriman, hopefully we haven't scared you away! We are very odd people and ghosts). We've all thought we picked up a sign from someone at some point about their role, like "Boro has to be the seer" and if the wolves thought that Night 1, I'm dead instead of Form. What particularly doesn't make sense is... Quote:
Your reaction is quite different. Quote:
So...are you a sacrificial wolf, because Pitch is also a wolf and you are hoping we move away from Pitch after your lynch? ![]()
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Fenris Penguin
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#12 |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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I've had a brief look through Morsul's and sally's posts.
Morsul: It struck me that on D1 he had Kath among his top suspects for her early vote, admitting it could have been based on her time zone but she could be using this as an easy defense. Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much? He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack including sally under the assumption that he was the Seer and dreamed her. If, on the other hand, the pack had killed Form to frame sally they'd want to make sure to keep mentioning how the kill pointed to her, which could be what Morsul is doing. He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third. Last not last, I'm not a fan of his plans in his first post toDay, especially not on the "let's all vote together" as above. sally: Nothing at all on D1. D2 she trusted Boro and myself on gut feeling, suspected Lommy (again, gut feeling) and Lottie (found her too agressive for an Ordlote), no idea about Huri, Sori and Legate. She thought I had some great points about Lottie, found her more suspicious the more she talked and ended up voting her. Now if sally is a wolf who was pressed for time yesterDay, piggybacking on my points against Lottie would have been an easy way to justify her vote, and also to justify going after Lottie rather than Lommy if Lommy is another wolf. Also buddying up to me. It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#13 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#14 | |||
Laconic Loreman
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Oof...I've racked my brain too much on this so going to let it be for now and think on the task at hand. Quote:
I'm more worried of sally's reaction, which looked like a concession and resignation that she will be lynched today. I just can't see an innocent sally reacting that way, even one that has been very busy so far, because she would know that if she is innocent and lynched, without the Ranger, it's over. Particularly with she stated she was "inclined to believe Morsul is a misguided innocent" which means, an innocent sally *should* have started suspecting Pitch. But she does not do this, does not say anything about Pitch, just seemed resigned to her fate and tried to guilt trip us into thinking it would be too obvious to kill Form Night 1 if she was a wolf. This could mean, Morsul is a wolf who voted for his mate sally, because there was already a plan to sacrifice herself if she was in trouble today. Although Morsul's hasty vote doesn't seem to be wolf-on-wolf, and if they are both wolves, why would Morsul not vote for Pitch? *seconded the bleurgh*
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Fenris Penguin
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#15 |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Yes, and an early vote toDay is much more dangerous than an early vote on D1. You realise if the wolves all pile on your vote and sally is first to get 4 votes, then even if the rest of us all vote a wolf it's still game over in case she's innocent, right?
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#16 | |
Haunting Spirit
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I do not believe Morsul is a wolf and think his bandwagon excuse for an early vote holds some sway when you consider the wolves will win if we get this wrong. Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?
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"And thou, Melkor, shalt see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite... ". The Silmarillion - Ainulindalë |
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#17 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,512
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Yes.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#18 | |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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I can see sally and Lommy being in a pack, as Kath suggests (though obviously not with me). I think I can also see a tandem between Kath and Morsul - Kath brought up the idea that Form's death points to sally, and Morsul keeps pushing it, also from the above trio Kath picks me and sally as her wolf choices but says nothing (as far as I see) about Morsul. Actually, as per Form's message we don't know whether there were one or more werewolves among the "five you have measured", do we?
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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