TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Morsul the Dark]

I’ll be around for about 45 minutes on lunch break. I might be forced to vote at the end since it is quite busy. I hate voting early.

Lottie and Sally are my top choices Lottie for her vote and behavior as outlined before. Sally for decided no vote along with Form’s night kill.

Huin is next but a far third mostly based on Lottie’s vote which is out of their control so not solid.

I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I feel like we’d get more information from a LottieWolf than a SallyWolf

If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

I feel this. Definitely has frustrated ordo vibes. Also could be frustrated at saving a pack mate just to be thrown under the bus by other wolves. I don’t think there’s been a lack of suspects today.

Sally and Huin are on my radar. Legate is on others pitch features in others.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok, this will probably bite me if it’s wrong, I feel Lottie is a highly frustrated Ordo based on her last post. And I’ve been there. And since I can’t guarantee I’ll be back before DL

++Sally

Not only is she my second in line suspect if she is a wolf and I help her bandwagon an Ordo that won’t do anyone any good.

Lottie I really hope your an Ordo. Otherwise you get an Oscar

Xed Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Well I didn't expect that. Fair. I mean, wrong, but fair.

I can't do much else toDay. I need to vote.

++Lottie

[Loslote]

Actually, I have a question for Pitch. At what point yesterDay did you realize that the first one of the two of us to vote would probably decide the lynch? Was it before or after I voted? You seemed like you didn't realize it until Sally no-voted, but I realized after Boro's vote. Were you really not aware that you had the power to decide who went to the Dead Thread? If you felt that Greenie was more trustworthy than Huin, knowing that the first vote wins in case of a tie, why didn't you vote earlier? Why did you wait and let me make the choice, then bemoan your lack of power after the fact?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I have a question for Pitch. At what point yesterDay did you realize that the first one of the two of us to vote would probably decide the lynch? Was it before or after I voted? You seemed like you didn't realize it until Sally no-voted, but I realized after Boro's vote. Were you really not aware that you had the power to decide who went to the Dead Thread? If you felt that Greenie was more trustworthy than Huin, knowing that the first vote wins in case of a tie, why didn't you vote earlier? Why did you wait and let me make the choice, then bemoan your lack of power after the fact?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's between Hui and Greenie, I'd actually (Legate 180 incoming) rather go for Hui just now. Anybody else?

That was 4 minutes after your vote. Does that answer you? Does my exasperation when sally no-voted?

DL is 1am my time, I should have been in bed at least an hour before, I had no suspicions I felt were strong enough to warrant a vote (those against yourself and Kath were rather flimsy), so I hung around hoping for something more substantial to turn up... too long.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, I had dinner and caught up and now I have time to be around...

I cannot help but think something is happening in the Pitch-Lottie interaction. The whole back-and-forth is a horrible lock-up that makes me think one of them is a Wolf - and given the options that yesterDay's voting pattern offers, there are other reasons that might support it. My money would be on Pitch also because his vote was technically more throwaway, more traceless. Well I spoke about all the options in my post early in the Day. Another, even though perhaps farfetched possibility is that all this debate is some strange Wolf-on-Wolf (we can go back to the too-good-to-be-true scenario where the two of them and Hui are all Wolves). But that is already thinking very far.

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually all the way through yesterDay Hui seems to be sort of following Legate's lead.

This is an interesting remark from Kath and I did not realise it fully at first, but in retrospect, it is true - and I am not sure what to make of it. Hui is certainly no beginner player who would need to latch onto and just copypaste somebody else's opinion. But it seems to me we have also converged at multiple times, so maybe we just think in a similar manner.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If there was a LottieWolf, maybe. I am not a wolf. You will get no information from lynching me, and the people who are spending the whole Day barking up this tree are giving the wolves perfect cover in which to operate. Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

This came a bit out of the blue, or, not entirely, there has been suspicion about Lottie, but I would certainly not say that people have not been looking at anybody else. So funnily enough, while so far the way Lottie posted has been more or less on the neutral level for me, I would say this was the first thing that stood out notably. That being said, I do think there are others than Lottie whose posting or actions would seem much more likely wolfy to me than hers.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's also true that you considered Morsul being the first to vote for Huey, but to me, you very clearly wanted to put the attention to those who cast the 2nd votes (Huey and Lommy)

(...)
And my argument is, a single vote a bandwagon does not make, but a single vote has the same potential to start a bandwagon.

But you can say that about any vote, obviously. If I understand you correctly, and if you are genuine about this, then it seems to me we just differ in the manner of rhetorics. I simply believe that the second votes, especially in this small number, were more decisive than singular first votes. It's like if I said "billionnaires are rich" and then you disputed me by saying that millionnaires are also rich. I am not disputing that they are.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I chalked this up to perhaps being a language barrier difference, because I agreed with your overall conclusion that Pitch's vote was a throwaway and looks like "keeping record clean" when Greenie is revealed innocent. I didn't register Legate categorizing Pitch's vote as sinister until Huey brought it up in his post #134.

It may very well be a language barrier thing, but if anything Lottie's vote is the sinister one and Pitch's is the "safe throwaway."

You can call it whichever way you want. Both were possibly incriminating there. Pitch's was, let's call it more conveniently placed, and it both followed a switch from his older suspects to voting somebody who was likely not going to get lynched and at the same time not getting his hands dirty by lynching an innocent. Bonus value if Hui is a Wolf and Pitch thus cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote in a safe space. That was the gist of what I was saying about him.

EDIT: x-ed from the start of the page

[Huinesoron]

Back but on my phone, which doesn't make seeing the bigger picture easy, but I'll try.

Pitch has replied to my questions, and their answers make me feel somewhat better. Their later posts don't - one basically accuses Lottie of changing opinion over Day 1, which, well yeah, while the other is repeating my point to Boro and trying to turn it into an attack on me. Last minute add-on: neither does their repeating Lommy's "Seers don't look random" argument against suspecting Sally.

Boro has also replied, and does not make me feel better. One half is 'I'm ignoring your accusation' (over 2 paragraphs) and the other is 'I know Legate talked about other people but I don't think it counts'. His later post ends by claiming Legate is suspicious for calling a vote 'sinister', which, it's TiG. Sometimes things look evil. I don't know if it's the phone, the hour, or BoroWolf, but the rest of his case just feels like trying to drown us in names.

Lottie hasn't done anything which looks wolfy; as far as I can tell the arguments are "they just Feel Bad", and "they changed their mind on Day 1". Also a touch of "they saved hS", which is nice, but I don't see not finding me evil as necessarily a wolfish tell.

Morsul is a lot more grounded now the action's not on them. That may not be a good thing - I think I speculated "frustrated wolf" yesterDay, which would obviously not be true toDay - but overall they look better.

Sally is going quite hard at Lottie based on feel (and has now voted accordingly) , and saying Pitch is good based on feel. I guess that's just how they operate? Not really good or bad, but convenient if a wolf. As is the curious lack of discussion about the whole "Did Wolf!Sally kill Form?" question.

Kath is here and looks reasonable. I mean, I know that Morsul and Greenie were sitting on my suspicions list all Day 1 (along with Lommy for a while), with Greenie only slipping off momentarily, but I don't know how well it came over in my posts, so.

Legate is... yeah, people are right that I've agreed with them a few times. I think we think and post in similar ways. I haven't read anything that says wolf, but their very reasonableness means I'm still wary.

Lommy in #136 makes a weird-sounding claim that WolfSally wouldn't have thought Form was a Seer because the vote and justification 'didn't seem like Seerish suspicion'. Which, a) a Seer who dreamed a wolf doesn't suspect, but more importantly b) a Seer who thought they could kill their dreamed wolf by making it look random would surely do that rather than going "I SEE that Sally is a wolf, do you SEE what I mean".

Soriman is absent. I'd really like to see what they have to say.

At this point I find Boro most suspicious in isolation, but either Pitch or (to a lesser extent) Lommy in conjunction with a wolf Sally.

(xed with Kath)

hS

[Kath]

My current suspicions definitely start with sallybecause of the Night kill and I'm pretty sure that's where my vote is going toDay.

Boro would be on the list what with the oddness over the way he interpreted Legate's voting analysis, but with that said I think there's something strange with the Legate/Hui connection as well. I think I'd lean towards a Hui-wolf more than a Legate one because of the direction of the connection.

Lottie's been mentioned a lot toDay. I'm getting more frustrated ordo than forcing-a-focus wolf and I think she explained her vote clearly enough, so she wouldn't be on my concerns list at the moment.

[Kath]

Voting time for me. Given my feeling that the wolves have to gun for the Seer with every Night kill, and that therefore they were working on a Form-Seer hypothesis, my vote goes to:

++sally

[Kath]

Day 2 then:

Boro

If they were going with the "no trail kill" and thus that's why Form was targeted that doesn't make much sense. Form was pretty wishy-washy in who he suspected, but he did leave a trail. If they were going "no trail" I would think sally or Soriman would have been the choice, because Form certainly did list people so he did leave a trail.

Yes, but some of the people on said list were sally and Soriman because he was talking about the lurkers, so I'm not quite sure what you're meaning here. Thinks Pitch's vote for Hui was throwaway given sally no-voted and Soriman was unlikely to get a vote in so Greenie was going to be lynched. I actually think voting Greenie 'knowing' she was going to be lynched would have been more throw away. Seems to 'clear' sally based on gut feeling about her posts. Mentions Lottie is being more aggressive toDay but doesn't seem clear on whether that's good or bad. Disagrees with Legate's voting analysis focus, but doesn't mention who then from the votes he thinks suspicion should point towards. Proposes a Legate/Hui pack. My earlier post about Hui/Legate was kind of along similar lines, but because it seems so obvious that Hui is kind of following after Legate's lead, I think it feels less likely that they would be in kahoots.

Huinesoron - spent some time questioning Pitch as they didn't feel that Pitch's previous statements on Greenie then matched his later comments. I can sort of see what they mean given the quotes they've used. Notes that Boro has cheerfully disregarded Legate's additional focus on Pitch and Boro when he discussed Legate's 'narrow' analysis of the voting. That is a good point. Suspects Pitch for his vote (I disagree) and sally due to Form's death (I agree).

Legate - focused on the voting and notes that Lommy and Hui were the 'pushers' of the two wagons, Pitch's vote was throwaway (I disagree as mentioned elsewhere) and Boro who avoided the wagons. Then further develops suspicion of Boro for misrepresenting his voting analysis (as pointed out also by Hui).

Lommy - proposes a Lottie/sally/Hui pack because she feels Lottie rather let sally off the hook and then the way she spoke about Hui in Day 1. I think the attitude toward sally more comes from RL rather than in-game, so I'm not sure I agree with this. Analyses Form and ends up with suspicion of sally.

Loslote - similar sally question post. Explains her vote for Greenie - seems to make sense to me. Greenie and Hui were garnering the most suspicion and possible votes at the time. She feels that Morsul's list post seems to have unfounded suspicions of some people, while seeming to give others an unexplained pass. I do agree that the decisions aren't clearly explained, and I think that's what led to a lot of the debate yesterDay about Morsul as it seemed as though they were flipping between finding particularly Hui innocent one moment and guilty the next without it being very clear why.

Morsul - debating the sally question in much the same way as I did. I'm still of the Occam's razor school of thought on that one. Wondering why Lottie chose to vote between Greenie/Hui rather than going with her prior suspicions, and suggests it was for self preservation. I'm not quite following the logic there? I don't think anyone else had suggested they'd vote Lottie at the time. List post is interesting in that almost each person they comment on gets the treatment of suspicious but not a wolf which doesn't really follow. Not quite sure what they're saying about Lommy's vote in post #131?

Pitch - questions Lottie's vote and suggests she was trying to save Hui. I'm not quite sure where he was going within the post (#142) as apart from himself going from not-vote to possible-vote, I thought Lottie's earlier explanation for her vote was fairly clear.

Sally - if Lottie is going to go after Morsul for wishy-washy lists, then I'll expect the same intensity towards sally's in post #121. Beyond saying Boro and Pitch seem innocent, everyone else gets the 'could be ... but maybe' treatment. Thinks Pitch makes good points about Lottie and would vote for her. She'd earlier mentioned that Lottie was quite aggressive, maybe more so than she'd be as an ordo, so this is consistent at least.

Soriman - have they posted? If so, I didn't note anything as I read through.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Kath

Morsul - Lommy's vote in post #131?

My point was they decried bandwagons then *possibly* jumped on one

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kath

Day 2 then:

Boro

Yes, but some of the people on said list were sally and Soriman because he was talking about the lurkers, so I'm not quite sure what you're meaning here.

Form had engaged with several people Day 1...so my point is someone's vote isn't the only trail they leave. Form throughout the day responded/interacted to comments made by myself, Lottie, Lommy, Huey, Kath and voted for sally. Sally and Soriman had no vote trail, but also I don't recall them interacting with anyone.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Boro has also replied, and does not make me feel better. One half is 'I'm ignoring your accusation' (over 2 paragraphs) and the other is 'I know Legate talked about other people but I don't think it counts'. His later post ends by claiming Legate is suspicious for calling a vote 'sinister', which, it's TiG. Sometimes things look evil. I don't know if it's the phone, the hour, or BoroWolf, but the rest of his case just feels like trying to drown us in names.

Now see this is a mis-representation. The 1st time you made the accusation I took it as you were probing for a response. You categorize my reply as "I'm ignoring your accusation" but you yourself are ignoring my stated reasons:

I think I do detect an attempted distraction. So, sorry Huey, won't engage in a conversation that looks like you're trying to derail and argue with me about something I said I was going to ignore.

I said I don't want to be pulled into a debate about something that has no bearing on what the focus on today should be; who I'm suspicious of and lynching a wolf. You returning to this and categorizing as I'm just ignoring your accusation is mis-representing my post. *ping*

As to the 2nd reason of me supposedly "mis-representing" Legate's vote analysis. Can someone please explain what is mysteriously "odd" about it and how it's mis-representing it? (Someone other than Huey or Legate, because I don't trust either of them at the moment). Kath, you have just called it odd? How so because quite frankly I'm confused.

Look...6 people voted for either Greenie or Huey.

Legate's analysis was, explain away the first 2 people (himself and Morsul) under the premise that "the 1st votes for someone aren't the starters of a bandwagon, they are bringing up other alternatives." Then he narrows in and directs the "scrutiny" to those who made the 2nd vote (Lommy and Huey); under the premise that the 2nd vote is the one that actually starts the bandwagon. Again, this makes the 2nd time Legate has used "Huey + someone else" to focus the "scrutiny" on.

Day 1 it was Huey and Greenie:

Originally Posted by Legate #16

I am not entirely sure how Boro's comment constitutes as "launching a Day 1s are pointless-debate".

Now Hui seems to be poking around inquisitively overall, which is an activity that by itself can serve both good and evil purposes, so if this is just a part of that, whatever; but the formulation (the not-outright-accusing, yet suggestive "I find it a little suspicious", while putting words into Boro's mouth) does not seem right to me. Even stranger is that Greenie basically repeats the same, which just gives me the vibe of "quoting without checking the source", i.e. having seen Hui slightly suspect Boro and just latch on to that. That would be a very good move for a Wolf to pull.

Overall it's just weird because I don't read it as Boro "launching" any "debate" on "Day 1 pointlessness" in the first place.

Clarifications, anyone?

Day 2 is Huey and Lommy:

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

If this isn't trying to narrow in a small number of suspect, I really don't know what is. Twice in 2 days, but I'm the "mysteriously" odd one for pointing it out.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after Morsul's #166

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Please, just look at one (1) other person toDay. The village doesn’t benefit from wasting the whole day suspecting the same (innocent, believe it or not) person.

Duly noted.

I'm just going through Formy's posts and loved this so much I had to rep him for it:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

That doesn't mean that someone can't luck into a correct answer, but WW is an ever-escalating game of "normally I zig, so I need to zag" and "XXXX seems suspicious, but they always seem suspicious, but it's suspicious that I usually end up not thinking they're suspicious, and it's suspicious that they're aren't suspicious, and even more suspicious that they're a little bit suspicious rather than exact enough suspicious."

To which I'd add "X doesn't suspect me, does that mean they're an innocent who has a good read on me or a wolf trying to buddy up to me? I don't really suspect them either, does that mean I should? If I don't suspect them, is it just because they don't suspect me? But I'm actually innocent, so if they don't suspect me that's OK, isn't it?" - Boro and sally, this is about you.

Anyway. Reason I went through Form's posts is this:

Originally Posted by Kath #146

The wolves have to aim for the Seer, they can't afford not to. So either they saw something Seer-ish in Form, or they thought he'd dreamt of one of them. He voted for sally out of quite a few 'lurker' options he was thinking about, so even if killing him points toward a sally-wolf, the pack may have thought that getting potential Form-Seer out of the way early on was worth the risk.

And I don't see it. I think he made it pretty clear that he was channeling Nogrod and hunting submarines. He singled out Kath, sally and Sori a 'Quiet' (#78), gave Kath a pass as 'not bad for Kath' and Sori for being a newbie, and sally was left. Seriously, if I were a wolf in sally's place I don't know that I would have panicked enough to think him the Seer and kill him, or if I did I hope my packmates would have talked me out of it.

So I think this is much more likely to be a no-trace kill (the second-best thing if you can't kill the Seer, and if you can use it to frame an innocent, so much the better.)

But then again, this also means there was nobody else the wolves thought more likely to be the Seer (as I don't remember who and am too lazy to check said before me). This could speak for Hui's innocence (as I think Morsul noted). But if the wolves (or most of them) felt safe yesterDay we should look at those who didn't get any votes:
Boro
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Soriman
Which is half the remaining village, and I think it's highly likely there's at least one wolf among them.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm definitely not posting this while on a conference call.

I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.

I'll be back over a break, at which point I'll have to vote. I'm working late tonight to make up for being gone next week, so I won't be able to be on again until after deadline.

Edit: x'd with Pop

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't want to vote super early, but the more Lottie talks, the more suspicious I'm finding her. Not that she doesn't make sense, but she seems more....touchy, though of course not in a mean way, just a suspicious way.

Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one. Well, if Pitch had voted before me and Huin had turned out to be innocent, maybe my vote would have been the throwaway vote and his would have been the one that saved Greenie and you all would think Pitch and Greenie were packmates. That's just the position we were both in at the end of yesterDay, because people didn't vote, and I strongly suspect two innocents were the ones most likely to go home. I made a decision. I didn't especially suspect Greenie, but I chose to keep Huin, and now you and Morsul are all but refusing to look at anyone else because of it. It is frustrating, and I am a bit touchy at this point. I'm not a wolf, and I really, really wish you guys would spend more time looking for wolves than just reiterating that you suspect me. I get it, I do, but please don't just let the wolves skate by completely unnoticed because you can't stop talking about me!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, yes. Several people have said nothing all Day except that I seem suspicious. I am getting tired of that - look at other options! My vote stands out because it was the deciding one.

This is true. I feel like I've made some good points about Legate and so far I think only Legate himself and Huey have responded to it.

I'm wary if I continue then I'll just be tunnel visioned on Legate and thus my day is stuck on 1 person. If I had to vote right this moment it would be for Legate, and I would definitely love to hear what other people think about this? (Morsul? Sally? If you're able to come back at some point in the day...Lottie? Pitch? Kath? Soriman - where are you?)

[Huinesoron]

Votes so far

Morsul > Sally
Sally > Lottie
Kath > Sally [2]
Soriman > Lottie [2]

I think lynching a WolfSally would shed a lot of light, but I also think it would be an easy lynch for the wolves to jump on board because of the "SeerForm" thing. Also, per my last, I have no read on Sally as wolfish except for "SeerForm" logic.

Interrupting myself because Soriman is here and... voting for Lottie with no reasoning other than them being my most likely packmate (but not voting me). Um... what?

But it's nearly 10pm and I'm too tired to stay up and see more. :-/ I think Lottie is likely innocent, and Sally is a coin-toss, so I'm going to put in a vote for my 'most likely wolf' per my last post:

++BOROMIR88

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Votes so far

Interrupting myself because Soriman is here and... voting for Lottie with no reasoning other than them being my most likely packmate (but not voting me). Um... what?

I’d like to second this opinion.