TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Huinesoron]

I was going to start by answering Pitchwife's question from late yesterDay (the answer being: no, it didn't particularly occur to me that Greenie would see their "flimsy... not confident about this" vote as being something that would attract overNight attention even from Wolf!Pitch), but then I looked at Pitch's history and I Have Questions.

These are the only comments I can find from Pitch on Greenie's alignment:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Greenie feels neutral, slightly on the goodish side.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I thought earlier that Greenie might fit the job description for the X wolf steering clear of the Hui/Morsul business, but I don't really see anything screaming wolf in her (yet). I might go for Lottie or Kath.

Whereas he spent a fair bit of time discussing ways I might be a wolf. So, Question 1:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's between Hui and Greenie, I'd actually (Legate 180 incoming) rather go for Hui just now. Anybody else?

How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?

Question 2:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

sally, seriously?

In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.

With all that in mind, Question 3:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.

Sally, what about Pitch's reaction looks particularly innocent/trustworthy to you?

hS

[Huinesoron]

Thinking about about Form's death - my first instinct was to say that even Wolf!Sally might not kill him as a suspected seer, because it would point the finger exclusively at her. I considered it more likely that he was a no-trail killing with a handy side-effect of implicating Sally.

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.

Which means that if Sally isn't a wolf, then as Legate said a couple of posts back, none of the wolves felt they might have been scryed. I think that actually clears Morsul to an extent, because they could definitely have felt scryed yesterDay.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.
hS

That’s an interesting thought I hadn’t really considered the implications of the ghost strategy, and how it affects the wolves’ aggression. This certainly could point in Sally’s direction. But if your follow up is correct(they didn’t feel they were found out) there’s two possibilities;

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

Xed Boro

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

It's not quite that bad! Sally's voter was killed overNight, so they might have thought him the Seer. Pitch's voter was killed in the lynch, so they knew they weren't. That only leaves three of your "clears", and as you say:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

I've already said I think you come out looking pretty good. Obviously I'm not unbiased about myself, but I think wolf!Lottie would (or could) have seen Boro's vote as standard Day 1 reasoning-based.

(And since I trimmed the end off a sentence in my last post: this "clear" of Morsul only applies if Sally is innocent!)

hS

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would agree with this, but we don't have anyone who could qualify as a 'lurker' who I would be willing to vote. It's Soriman's first game, so it's expected that he'll be posting less often as he gets the hang of the game, Sally is usually quieter, especially on Day 1, I've really appreciated Kath's posts when she was here, and I think I'm next up for quantity of posts...

You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

Originally Posted by Lottie

My memory may be imperfect, but what I remember from playing with Huinwolf was feeling like we were on the same page, he's contributing great stuff, top of my innocent list, and then Legate caught something - a vibe or what, I don't remember - and we voted him out over a very short period of time. I am not getting that same vibe this game. Again, memory may be faulty - it's been a while - but toDay he feels more like the innocent Huin that I've played with before, who is always the first person stirring the pot and poking and prodding people. I'm not saying I trust him fully, just that I don't suspect him, and I think the people who are pushing that suspicion are pulling it a bit out of thin air. It's Day 1 - that's understandable - but you're acting like it's blatantly obvious that he's a wolf and it's bizarre that I'm not on board with that suspicion, when really, there's nothing more to this suspicion than there is to any other suspicion based on zero information. It's really easy to suspect Huin, and I don't know why you're so convinced of his wolfyness based on, from my perspective, not a ton to back it up.

I did not mean that it was weird that you consider(ed) Huin innocent-seeming or defended him, just that your rather strong language there caught my eye, as well as the fabricated seeming argument based on his performance in previous games. Something about the combo made me think "wolf protecting a fellow she doesn't want to see lynched on Day1".

Side note: based on these two minor points, I would be really tempted to jump into contemplating a Lottie-Sally-Huin pack, but I don't think I've ever made a 100% correct pack prediction on day2 so... But if turns out to be them, then I TOLD YOU SO, ALREADY ON DAY2.

Ok now that I got that off my chest, let's proceed...

Originally Posted by Pitch

Everybody hates seeing innocents lynched, but somebody will be lynched toDay, and if you don't vote you're just washing your hands. Wolves kill at Night, whether we lynch or not, and lynching is our only way of getting at them. So pick someone and remember, it's all just a game.

Can I have this on my tombstone? (Ok, maybe that's not a good thing to say during a ww game. ) But really, beautifully articulated. I should maybe steal it for my signature. This is exactly why I hate people suggesting - on Day1 or otherwise - not voting as an option. It's just stupid. That being said, RL problems or no, I'm not a fan of Sally's no-vote. If you're an innocent, you should vote. Even if you haven't had the time to properly read through everything. By abstaining from voting, you're giving the wolves' votes proportionately more weight.

Originally Posted by Boro

I will also trust my read on Lommy in my last post. It's weak, but every time I read her posts and get the image that she's arguing with herself, like Smeagol/Gollum it's a good sign. I mean it might not be good for her own sanity, but that reaction is hard for someone to fabricate.

Finally, someone who understands me and my struggles!

Originally Posted by Morsul

I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.

Yeah but also the deadline is at midnight for her, so it's not a surprise if she chooses to vote early. Ergo, just "voting early" is not really a very strong grounds for suspecting her.

[Boromir88]

Nothing like some Werewolf-searching after waking up in the morning. And even better when there's not a lot to catch up on.

Originally Posted by sally

Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.

I think I have my sally-radar correctly calibrated as well. When you are busy-tired-wolf-sally you use the little time you have to try to create chaos. My first reaction to your no vote yesterday was "sally's been busy but it looks like she's trying to create chaos at the DL," which is why I was very interested to see what you would say today.

Your post #121 looks still busy-tired-sally but using the little time you have to genuinely help us by stating your opinions on where people stand with you. Now your no vote yesterday looks like you legit couldn't catch up and I can see an innocent-sally not wanting to vote for just anyone under those circumstances. It's a shame you'll still be busy-tired-sally, but now your vote and posts today look genuine and thus you were not attempting to create chaos popping in last minute Day 1.

Originally Posted by Lottie

This is why I never bother to try to play a certain way or act "normal", no one can agree on how I play "normally" anyway. Am I normally aggressive? Am I normally a ruffler? Chalk this one up to the duality of man.

Well, by "ruffler" I mean ruffling feathers, you tend to be on a similar level to Huey, in poking and annoying people, as you did with Morsul beginning today. I don't know if it says anything about your alignment, but I agree with sally that it looked aggressive, and that is theLottie I'm most familiar with, who didn't appear at all yesterday.

That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

I mean I see you are the first vote for Greenie, so regardless of your alignment you're not going to suspect y ourself, but what about Morsul being the 1st vote for Huey? Why are the 2nd votes more suspicious than the 1st votes? Because 1 vote a bandwagon does not create, but the first vote for someone still has the potential to start a bandwagon, while also keeping relatively safe from scrutiny if there was a bandwagon.

I'm not sure if Pitch has trademarked it yet, but *ping* (if you have, Pitch, royalties will be sent )

Edit: crossed with Huey's 2nd post

[Pitchwife]

Back from work and catching up.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?

Because earlier I felt you and Morsul were most likely two innocent at odds(see #45) and one or more wolves might be fanning the flames. My speculations about the chances of your being a wolf were concerned with posts by others about you (as in the infamous case of Legate's temporary amnesia, or what Kath said about wolf-on-wolf between you and Morsul) rather than your own, which I didn't find very suspicious - so voting you was a "Legate 180" on my part, as in: a sudden turn manœuver named after him because he has it copyrighted, like Lommy for flip-flopping and the phantom for grand schemes.

As for Greenie, that part wasn't 180 - I wasn't happy with her voting me, but otherwise by the end of the Day I was willing to bet she was innocent.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.

It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.

[satansaloser2005]

Grrrr. Things keep popping up at work today, and it's my last day before I'm out for a week, so I'm horrendously busy. The good news is I will be around pretty steadily once today is over. The bad news is I will probably have to vote early because I don't want to forget again.

[Pitchwife]

Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):

Originally Posted by Lottie #63

I don't want to vote for Huin, Greenie, or Pitch, all three of whom are people who've drawn votes and attention so far toDay. I might be willing to vote Morsul, but frankly, I think it's just as likely he's innocent as a wolf, so I don't love that option, either. Hopefully something changes before DL…

Originally Posted by Lottie #95, the vote post

Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread (). I've been back and forth on Greenie all Day, but I suspect her more than I suspect Huin.

Originally Posted by Lottie 113

First to reach the tie wins it, and I knew there were very few people left to vote (myself, Pitch, and Soriman and Sally, who were unlikely to vote at all). I wasn't very afraid for my own life in this game, because I didn't think Sally or Soriman would vote for me, but you never know.

So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?



Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?

[satansaloser2005]

What some people seem to forget about Pitch and I is that we were packmates in the last game, so I feel like I have a pretty good read on him solely based on that. Besides, and innocent Pitch would be aggravated by someone no voting, while this would obviously have benefited a wolf Pitch because he knew one of Greenie or Hui would die, and if he were a wolf with Hui, he wouldn't have pitched (har har) him for lynching in the first place.

[satansaloser2005]

Also, Pitch is making some great points about Lottie in his post above mine. I'm very comfortable voting Lottie today, though I'll still wait to see if something else comes out of the woodwork.

[Morsul the Dark]

So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

Xed Sallyx2