Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Macalaure]

There are 84 possible wolf packs, 55 of which have some alphabetical adjacency. Math has spoken.

[Macalaure]

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

[Macalaure]

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

A communication method that misuses the dead vote could get an ordo lynched and essentially win the wolves the game, but okay.

[Macalaure]

We're getting closer to the point where all this becomes moot. We need to decide now.

[Brinniel]

Sally

Nothing really from her on Day 1, which tells us, well nothing.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Sally

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler

This is really just vague.

#261 She states that Nog seems innocent and sticks to that enough to later say her vote is to save him. Could go either way, but it reminds me of when Hui stuck his neck out for me last game.

#263 Agrees with Mac on his discomfort with Legate. I already mentioned this makes me doubt all three are wolves.

Votes Kath with no reason behind it. She later stated that she thought Formy was the cobbler, but this would've been an easy way for a wolf to escape the two main bandwagons.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Sally

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

Lommy suspected me and therefore must be punished! Just kidding. I feel a bit better about her toDay, and though it's selfish, the way she explained her "suspicions" of me (rather, her lack of innocent feelings) strikes me as an innocent Lommy. My suspicion of Form coupled with her vote for him helps, of course.

As for the other Finn sister, I don't have a good read on Greenie at all. The same is true of Shasta, Nilp, and Rikae. I need to work on that.

Then there's the other side of my suspicion.

Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people, because yesterDay could have been an extremely smooth operation to save his hide, or Kath's for that matter. Form and Kath. Form and Kath are my top suspects. Let's be fair and not single anyone out.

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac. I can't find the post where I talked about Mac. I wonder if I ever submitted it?

I do find it strange that she thinks me innocent but might re-evaluate it if Formy is a wolf - then goes on to say he's the most suspicious. With that last sentence I indeed think if she's a wolf, then it's more likely Mac is innocent. I doubt she'd group two packmates together. She does go back and forth on Kath, so maybe wolf-on-wolf?

Originally Posted by Sally

I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.

Votes for Formy.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Sally

Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.

Don't like her first paragraph at all. It's like, "Look, I was right about him all along." But from what I can tell, she only ever mildly suspected Legate. Still pondering the Sally/Kath pack feasibility.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

I know that some say missing parts of the rules could be a sign of innocence, but a wolf can make mistakes too...or it could be faked. So this tells me nothing.

Conclusions: I think Sally is suspicious. Unlikely Sally/Mac pack, but unclear about others.

I may look at Kath before the end of the Day, but we'll see if I have time.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

True, but who would you trust enough to make one up? We don't have the time to do it by committee. The only one would be Nilp, and he's apparently not around.

[Macalaure]

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

And I saw the problem with it then but was hesitant to bring it up for exactly this reason, any discussion gets accused of "muddling". But since I'm not the only one who saw a problem I thought maybe we could improve it some and avoid the drawback I saw (the alphabetical list pairs people I think are likely to be wolves together, in fact).

It wouldn't be muddling if we'd clearly highlight an official list at a reasonable hour, but at this point we are running out of time to do that, and most of the delay comes from people getting upset the discussion is happening at all!

[Macalaure]

Fine then. This is not worth arguing about from my point of view.

DEAD PEEPS - USE RIKAE'S LIST!

[Kath]

Yeah ok let's go for consensus. If the Dead Thread hate the list they can just vote no Medium.

Rikae's list it is.

[satansaloser2005]

It's better to use something we already had standing earlier in the day. Nilp seemed okay with Mac's list. No one has really given any good reasons why the list wouldn't work. Yes, maybe Mac is manipulating things because he's a wolf. That could be true of anyone except Nilp. The list is alphabetical, not randomly organized, so I think it's a fair list to use for this purpose. If we want to get more information from the dead thread toMorrow, we can use a different list. I don't care. But let's not change what we're doing when the dead thread may not be able to adjust to a change.

x'd since my last