Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust

Yes they could. But, again, the innocents don't know anything. So trusting their vote may not help the village, and so the Dead Thread wouldn't necessarily want to empower them.

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...

[Kath]

And constant changing of a plan can only cause confusion. We now have two lists, suggestions of pre voting, maybe the Dead Thread can empower an innocent voter. It's all over the place! Perfect way to stop the Seer being able to communicate a potential known wolf.

[Brinniel]

I agree this is a mess. We're so focused on strategy for the Dead Thread, that we've sort of lost focus on evaluating the players in the living thread. I'm sure there's a wolf among this talk, but I'm not sure who.

I have to run to a meeting, but will be back later.

[Thinlómien]

I agree it's pretty weird that we agreed we need a plan, and everybody seemed to be okay with Mac's, and then suddenly people start questioning it a few hours before the deadline? If we make it into toMorrow, we really need the known wolf if there is any. It's not like the numbers are going to be great then, either.

So what if we stick to the list and make a plan b?

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?


edit: xed with everyone after Kath

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?

No.[\burrahobbit]

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree it's pretty weird that we agreed we need a plan, and everybody seemed to be okay with Mac's, and then suddenly people start questioning it a few hours before the deadline? If we make it into toMorrow, we really need the known wolf if there is any. It's not like the numbers are going to be great then, either.

So what if we stick to the list and make a plan b?

You started it!!!!!

A plan b would be helpful though. I'm not sure post counts is quite in the spirit of the game though. But I will leave that up to Boro-Mod.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The could not, because the dead thread would be able to override them (depending on vote timing).

Right. Thank Goddess for small favours.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

What about 'If you have a known wolf, empower a person suspecting them'? This wouldn't just tell us about their lupinity for toMorrow, but actually help us to lynch them toDay.
As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.'

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Yhgtbfkm.

Wrong game. Shadow over Innsmouth was 10 years ago.

Originally Posted by Kath

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...

Different song, different refrain.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.'

Because everybody only has one single suspect. And what if the one in question is not suspected at all? It would be especially good to know in that case!

[satansaloser2005]

Back and thinking we should use the original list for toDay so we don't muck anything up for the dead thread.

I'm all for Nilp making a list though! At least we'd know he didn't have any ulterior motives.


x'd with Lommy

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Back and thinking we should use the original list for toDay so we don't muck anything up for the dead thread.

I'm all for Nilp making a list though! At least we'd know he didn't have any ulterior motives.


x'd with Lommy

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.


x'd since the post I quoted

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.


x'd since the post I quoted

Tomorrow, this whole discussion won't be relevant. There won't be any more seer dreams after the Night 4 one.

[Thinlómien]

Gonna have a look at this as the wolves are unlikely to go wolf-on-wolf toDay if they can avoid it. Ignoring Nilp because I have no reason to doubt his claim.

Brinn
- analyses Shasta as innocent based on Greenie's posts
- suspects Kath based on Legate's guilt
- explains Sally's posts to Rikae
- also thinks Rikae is leaning innocent based on Legate's posts
- lists Kath, Mac, Pitch and Sally as possible wolves
- asks Mac his interpretation about Greenie's dreams
- suspects Pitch, Kath, Mac and Sally based on what they said about Legate
- chooses to analyse Pitch. Comes out with the suspicion of Pitch/Kath or Pitch/Rikae

Rikae
- mentions Shasta and herself and Nilp as possible innocent dreams; vaguely exonerates Shasta based on this
- questions Sally aggressively
- thinks Kath looks innocent because a wolfpack with Kath would have killed Greenie sooner
- lists Mac, Pitch, Sally and Brinn as possible wolves based on what they said about Legate
- points out Brinn's boss lady moves and finds her conviction of Shasta's innocence and Kath's guilt worrisome

Sally
- suspects Kath
- wary of Rikae but not in a committed way
- side note: was confused about the beast hunter rules. Would a wolf really be?? And would a wolf Sally pretend to be? I think no and yes.

Mac
- undecided about Rikae and Sally based on Form interactions
- suspicious of Shasta and to a lesser degree of Pitch and Kath based on Form interactions
- trusting of Brinn based on Form interactions
- admits to hoping Shasta would not come out looking innocent in an analysis
- says Shasta and Rikae are possible innocent dreams of Greenie
- says Kath is a possible guilty dream of Greenie's but dismisses the thought immediately
- corrects Brinn misquoting him
- says if the wolf pack includes Kath then they treated her and Legate differently
- accuses Shasta of lack of attentivity/ reading comprehension (ok this sounds harsh and it wasn't, but that's the drift)

Kath
- doesn't understand why people (for example Brinn) keep associating her with Pitch
- thinks Mac, Sally and Rikae most likely co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Shasta and Pitch look like relatively plausible co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Brinn looks fairly innocent based on Legate-interactions
- discusses the numbers with Shasta

Pitch
- wary of Rikae's seer pretension
- criticises Mac's communication scheme

Shasta
- thinks Mac's suspicion of him looks fabricated, disagrees with him nitpicking over my post
- says Kath sounds like a defensive wolf
- thinks Kath might be the cobbler instead of Pitch
- originally likes Mac's voting model, then does a legate 180
- flipflops on whether Kath is a possible seer-dreamed wolf
- questions Rikae's suspicions of me
- disagrees with Rikae about Brinn looking innocent over Legate's posts

Ok this is end of page 14 and I've got to stop here, runing out of time. But everything after that should be in recent memory...

[Macalaure]

There are 84 possible wolf packs, 55 of which have some alphabetical adjacency. Math has spoken.

[Macalaure]

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

[Macalaure]

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

A communication method that misuses the dead vote could get an ordo lynched and essentially win the wolves the game, but okay.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

True, but who would you trust enough to make one up? We don't have the time to do it by committee. The only one would be Nilp, and he's apparently not around.