Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Eönwë]

So what, do we learn from the votes? Commenting as I look through.


Day 1
It looks like there were good and bad voters among the Brinn voters, so it's not clear whether we learn much here.

If Brinn is evil, it is unlikely that Rune is.
If Brinn is evil, Kath, Lottie and Lommy all voted to save her, so they could be evil.



Day 2
Plenty of good-aligned people voted for Mac, so a Mac-vote doesn't necessarily make you evil.

Rune and THE Ka voted for Lottie, which makes both Lottie look better - it's unlikely that THE Ka would make a packmate into a viable quarantine candidate. It also makes Rune look better - it's unlikely that wolves would vote for the same person immediately after one another.



Day 3
Both good and bad people voted for Sally, so we can't tell much from that. Theoretically, wolves might want to not vote Sally as a way of looking better later, but again, innocents voted for non-Sally candidates so we can't tell that much.



Day 4
I haven't gone back to look at the times, but Rune's vote definitely was to quarantine me and save Lhuna. Boro's may have also been, but it was a bit late.

It turns out THE Ka is capable of turning a packmate into a viable quarantine-candidate. Maybe Day 2 doesn't make Lottie look as good by association after all.



Day 5
We have one confirmed innocent voting for Inzil, and one confirmed innocent voting for Rune, so nothing obvious there.

If Rune is evil, Lottie seems likely to be innocent, since she brought him pretty close to being quarantined.



Day 6
Only Rune and THE Ka herself didn't vote for THE Ka. I see three options here. If Rune is evil, he tried to save a packmate, and the third packmate realised they had to go with the flow or get discovered, the wolves saw the current and decided to go with the flow, or, based on THE Ka's last posts about RL and time, she agreed to be sacrificed for the good of the wolfpack, which means that the earlier voters could also be wolves. Hard to tell

[Eönwë]

Looking at people's votes over all Days:

Lommy - Voted for Lhuna before it was a given that she was going to be quarantined, and THE Ka when it was. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 and Rune on Day 5. Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn or Rune is evil.

Loslote - Voted Hui at a time when it could've gone in either direction, voted Boro before the village had made Lhuna a viable candidate, made THE Ka a clear frontrunner. Voted to save Brinn on Day 1 Verdict: mostly good based on votes; less good if Brinn is evil.

Kath - Has voted Zil (a known innocent) 3/6 Days, and voted THE Ka after her quarantining was inevitable. In her favour, she strengthened Lhuna's lead at an important time. Verdict: mostly good based on votes.

A Little Green - Until THE Ka yesterDay, only voted people who we know were innocent - Mac and then Zil. She did turn THE Ka into a viable candidate, but if THE Ka did offer herself up to be sacrificed, then this would fit into that account. Additionally, a second vote does not necessarily make a viable candidate. Verdict: mixed.

Boromir88 - Until yesterDay, when THE Ka's fate was mostly sealed, has only voted for innocents - Pitch, Mac, Sally, who are known innocents, and me for 2 Days. Verdict: bad.

Brinniel - Voted for Hui when it mattered, voted for Lhuna after it didn't, voted against Rune when it did. Made THE Ka votes a full-blown bandwaggon. Verdict: mostly good, but if Rune is evil, mixed; if Greenie is evil, less good (since that suggests that there was a plan on sacrificing THE Ka).

Rune Son of Bjarne - The only times his votes have had an impact is to save Lhuna on Day 4, and himself on Day 5. Voted for Brinn on Day 1. Verdict: bad; mixed if Brinn is evil.


So ignoring the conditionals, that leaves:

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

[Thinlómien]

Very quiet here - and I'm not surprised. I spent last night playing computer games instead of ww because I was like "eh nothing big happening in there toDay, Shasta the seer is dead and we're gonna lynch Eönwe and nobody can be probably motivated to do much analysis about anything".

WELL

Excellent job, Shasta, I now forgive you for your previous lack of psychic brilliance in this game

Because let's not pretend (I mean I understand why Eönwë is pretending but the rest of us shouldn't) this was about anything else than Shasta's all-but-seer-reveal yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Shasta

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.

Why would the wolves have gone for him if he wasn't right?

I don't see a single reason.

They must be frantic that the seer is alive and could condemn them all. They can't afford to start framing people.

Ergo, I'm 99.9% sure Eönwë is a wolf and Lottie and Greenie are innocent. I was pretty certain of that yesterDay anyway, but I would very much like to thank Shasta for confirming it for us.

The question remains, who is the last wolf? I'm afraid I can't bring myself to dig too deep into the question right now because it's a pressing question only toMorrow AND my work might be wasted by a seer reveal anyhow, but if I had to hazard a guess, I'm still thinking Brinn, it makes the most sense. But I guess Kath and Boro are still theoretically on the table too.

I am going to vote Eönwë probably no matter what (sorry Eönwë if you feel obloged to respond to this, I meant what I said yesterDay that it would have been perhaps nicer to lynch you yesterDay because Ka might have been chill enough to give up toDay while you obviously aren't *pats wolvish head*) but it feels a little wrong to do it this early. I'll be back but yeah, like I said, probably won't post that much toDay because Shasta did all the work for us... (And given how long this game is, maybe it's nice to have on chill Day in the middle, in case hunting the last wolf will still become a big drama.)

[A Little Green]

Colour-coded spreadsheet of doom is back! I added everyone’s interactions with THE Ka, and based on what this gives me, my best guess would be that our remaining wolves are among Kath, Brinn, and Eonwe. Rune and Boro are also very much possible. Lommy and Lottie would be unlikely. Overall, I'm a bit unnerved by the fact that a majority of our remaining villagers still look compatible as fellows to our dead wolves. I shortened the bits about previous wolves for convenience, but didn’t leave them out altogether since they’re still relevant. Again, here’s the whole thing –


Lommy
Possible match with Huin, unlikely with Lhuna, fairly unlikely with Ka.

Huin and Lommy – Mutual suspicion without votes, could be wolf-on-wolf.

Lhuna and Lommy – Mutual suspicion with votes. Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason on D2, Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s bandwagon comment in the same post. On D3 Lommy points out Lhuna noticing Huin’s slip as possibly wolfish, which would be pretty brutal if they were fellows. Then on D4 Lommy casts a fairly crucial vote for Lhuna. None of this looks wolf-on-wolfy to me.

THE Ka and Lommy – Ka barely mentions Lommy. As for Lommy, on D1 and D2 she lumps Ka together with Kath under reasonable and innocentish. On D3 she says Ka's D2 vote looks bad in light of Huin's role, lists her as slightly suspicious and says used to consider her innocent on very little evidence. Then on D4 she says "THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...". On D5 she says she’s been saying for Days how Ka seems harmless by playing in her own bubble and avoiding controversy and this is alarming as it reminds her of past Ka-wolves; considers voting her but prefers Eonwe. Then on D6 says Ka is a very likely wolf and votes her. This could go either way, but overall seems like a fairly natural thought process to me. I know I always say consistent doesn’t equal innocent, but this kind of consistency – starting from one opinion, slowly beginning to doubt it, then consolidating a different opinion and following through with a vote - doesn’t ring alarm bells.

Other observations: I still think her reaction to Boro’s non-reveal looks very genuine and makes me feel better about her.


Lottie
Unlikely match with Huin and THE Ka, fairly unlikely with Lhuna.

Huin and Lottie – On D1 Lottie agrees very vocally with Huin several times and even points this out herself; on D2 casts a fairly crucial vote on Huin.

Lhuna and Lottie – Mostly either consider each other innocent or have low-key, could-go-either-way interactions. On D2 Lottie suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. When called out by Pitch, Lottie is open about how she probably has a biased frame of mind since she didn’t suspect Lhuna previously; I’m not sure a Lottiewolf would say she literally had a biased frame of mind where a fellow is concerned.

THE Ka and Lottie – Mutual suspicion with votes. On D1 Ka points out Lottie's repeated complimenting of Huin which would be pretty brutal from a fellow wolf on D1, later lumps her with Brinn as suspicious but suspects Brinn over Lottie. On D2 Lottie says Ka is helpful but under the radar, Ka suspects Lottie for playing safe and polished and is second to vote for her. Then on D3 Lottie finds Ka and Rune's votes for herself suspicious and lists both under "dubious". On D4 Lottie says she doesn’t trust Ka but doesn’t have solid reasons to suspect her, either. On D5 Lottie points out Ka's Lhuna vote could be wolf-on-wolf (again somewhat brutal if they were fellows), pre-votes Inzil or Ka, says she is beginning to suspect Eonwe but would prefer to lynch Ka, and says Ka's case against Shasta could indicate Ka and Eonwe being packmates. Later Lottie says she doesn't want to lynch Inzil after all but go for Rune, Ka or Eonwe; votes Rune over Ka due to better likelihood of a Rune lynch. On D6 Lottie still suspects Ka and votes for her.

Other observations: The Shasta kill makes Lottie look good, as Shasta was Seer hinting pretty heavily about having dreamed myself and Lottie as innocent, and the wolves obviously bit.


Boro
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Boro – Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment.

Lhuna and Boro – A lot going on. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and flip-flops on whether he finds Lhuna suspicious or not; on D3 still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna; on D4 speculates on Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after it no longer matters given Lhuna's lead (presumably to flush out potential packmates? This makes him look slightly better). Lhuna, meanwhile, suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it.

THE Ka and Boro – On D2 Boro analyses the G55- and Brinn-wagons for potential suspicious votes, doesn't mention Ka or several other Brinn voters (Mac, Legate, Sally) at all; later, after this has been brought up by others, says Ka's vote placement was suspicious and wants to look closer at her. On D5 Boro agrees with Lottie's "wolf-on-wolf" take on Ka's Lhuna vote, and says Ka's case against Shasta looks opportunistic. On D6 he finds Ka the most suspicious and votes for her. Boro doesn’t really take the lead in suspecting or voting for THE Ka, but that doesn't necessarily say anything about his role.

Other observations: This was really interesting, actually. The non-reveal brouhaha yesterDay initially made me feel better about Boro, but looking at his interactions with our known wolves does make me reconsider somewhat.


Rune
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Rune – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Rune – On D1 Rune says he always believes the best of Lhuna; as discussed before, this could be Runewolf hiding behind what he always does (in the same post he also said he always suspects Eonwe, and has consistently suspected Eonwe for most of the game). On D4 Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT, which tallies with his previous independent voting and doesn’t tell much either way. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions Rune aside from mentioning on D4 that he could be a submarine wolf; on the same Day Lhuna also casts doubt on Lommy's conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look good. Again as discussed, this doesn’t necessarily make them less likely fellows after all; as Lommy pointed out, this could as well be Lhuna pointing out a flaw in a theory that she only spotted because she knew that the premise (Rune is innocent) was faulty.

THE Ka and Rune - On D1 Ka lumps Rune together with Lhuna in her long-ish discussion of their time constraints; I know I said this made me think Ka and Lhuna were fellows, but I’m not sure whether she would single out two fellow wolves this way. On D2 Rune says Ka is leaning good, insightful and helpful, but nothing concrete. On D4 Ka subtly questions Lhuna's criticism of Lommy's theory re:Legate that would point to innocent Rune; this would make sense with Ka being a fellow of both Rune and Lhuna. On D5 Ka downplays the QT vote for Rune. Then on D6 Rune says Ka seems more innocent than not, probably the last person aside from Eonwe to think so.

Other observations: This would be a lot easier if we actually knew why the wolves killed Legate. Because I agree with Lommy, if they were looking for possible Seers it’s fairly unlikely that Rune is a wolf.


Brinn
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Brinn – Huin vocally defends Brinn, Brinn votes for Huin. As mentioned before, the latter could be Brinn trying to distance herself from a fellow wolf who had attached himself a little too closely to her.

Lhuna and Brinn - Mutual suspicion since D2. On D2 Lhuna speculates about Brinn-Huin wolf pair, though only after it had already been brought up by others. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Brinn is seventh to vote for Lhuna. Could pass for wolf-on-wolf.

THE Ka and Brinn – Mutual suspicion here too. On D1 Brinn says THE Ka seems level-headed and leaning innocentish, while Ka suspects Brinn for playing safe and votes for her (3., with G55 4 and Pitch 3). This would be risky but not unthinkably so for D1 wolf-on-wolf as both G55 and Pitch were ahead of Brinn. On D2 Ka continues to suspect Brinn but votes for Lottie (both had 1 vote at the time). On D3 Brinn forgets Ka from her list of non-Mac/Huin voters and then says she needs to keep a better eye on her, later analyses her but doesn't come to a conclusion. On D4 Brinn still hasn’t come to a conclusion about Ka but says Ka's vote for Lhuna could be wolf-on-wolf. On D5 Brinn pre-votes Inzil and "to a lesser extent" Ka; then on D6 follows Boro on suspecting Ka and votes for her. Ka votes for Brinn, though she was so universally suspected by this stage that I don’t think we can give much weight to her vote either way.

Other observations: I still don’t know what to make of the Cutie votes for her – or more specifically, of the Cuties voting for her again with an innocent majority. Brinn being a wolf would also explain why the wolves didn’t believe Boro’s fake Seer hints.


Eonwe
Somewhat possible match with all three.

Huin and Eonwe – Eonwe casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed he will probably have been aware of this at the time so this doesn’t necessarily clear him.

Lhuna and Eonwe – Eonwe doesn’t suspect Lhuna; Lhuna supects Eonwe on D2 but in the same post says she considers voting Lommy, Brinn or Boro, then on D4 Lhuna elaborates on her Eonwe suspicions and votes for him.

THE Ka and Eonwe – This gave me a headache. On D1 Eonwe says he likes Lommy and Ka so far, and is wary about Brinn agreeing with him on this. On D2 Eonwe points out Ka and Brinn as possible fellows, but also says she still seems good. On D3 he lists Ka under "concerned about" based on her Lottie vote and says he "could vote" her or Rune. Then on D4 he "feels better about Ka" due to Mac turning out innocent and lists her under "unsure, leaning good", but later the same Day he is wary of Lommy, THE Ka, and Brinn due to discussion over Legate. On D5 Ka suspects Shasta because he is defensive of Eonwe, Eonwe thinks this could implicate Ka and Shasta as fellows. Finally on D6 Eonwe lists Ka with two TBDs and one "bad" over lumping him and Shasta together, also calls her D2 vote "kind of bad". Later he starts suspecting Boro/Lottie/Shasta for framing him and Ka, then backtracks saying that if Ka is a wolf he needs to look elsewhere; votes Ka after she is already a goner. This is so messy that I don’t know what to think. Ka’s suspicion of Shasta based on him being defensive of Eonwe – while saying remarkably little about Eonwe himself – is very interesting. At the same time, I’m not sure an Eonwolf would really say he and Ka are innocents being framed by wolves in a situation where Ka looked like a very likely lynch. Also just in general, Eonwe's opinion on Ka flips and flops almost too much for them to be fellows; a careful Eonwolf would possibly try to decide whether to wolf-on-wolf and then stick with it rather than waver this much.

Other observations: The Shasta kill looks really bad on Eonwe, as it looked like Shasta was a wolf who had dreamed myself and Lottie as innocents, Ka as a wolf, and Eonwe as either another dreamed wolf or at the very least a likely next dream.


Kath
Possible match with all three.

Huin and Kath – Barely interact with each other.

Lhuna and Kath – Lhuna barely mentions Kath. On D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; on D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit (voted Inzil); on D4 pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, fifth to vote for Lhuna. I disagree with Eonwe’s conclusion that this vote is unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf. Kath had said for two Days that her top suspects were Inzil and Lhuna, so voting for anyone outside of those two would have raised eyebrows. By the time she voted, Inzil had one vote and Lhuna was in the lead with 4 votes to Eonwe’s 3. Voting for Inzil instead of Lhuna would have looked really fishy for her the next Day if Lhunawolf did end up lynched, which was beginning to look likely at that point. So fellows or no, I don’t think Kath had a choice but to follow up on her suspicion of Lhuna and vote for her.

THE Ka and Kath – barely interact with each other; on D2 Kath questions Ka on whether she actually suspects Lottie or not, then on D6 Kath votes for Ka after she is already a goner.

Other observations: Kath is doing a good job of contributing actively while keeping out of the spotlight. She does this regardless of role, but her lack of interaction with both Huin and THE Ka makes me pretty uneasy. The suspicion of Lhuna, while a lot more substantial, isn’t incompatible with being wolf-on-wolf, either – especially coupled with the fact that she kept Lhuna as a second choice behind Inzil, and that Lhuna doesn’t really mention Kath.

[A Little Green]

Based on the above (sorry for the length, but I think it'll be useful analysis fodder later on too), I'd be happiest with lynching Eonwe toDay, followed by Kath or Brinn; I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

[Thinlómien]

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

Originally Posted by Greenie

I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Based on the above (sorry for the length, but I think it'll be useful analysis fodder later on too), I'd be happiest with lynching Eonwe toDay, followed by Kath or Brinn; I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree with you, but I think there might be a bit of fatigue in the village. Should one of the main suspects turn out innocent, then we would rue a wasted day.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

I get that a lot these days.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie


I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

I agree with the overall sentiment of your list, though I find that there isn't much separating 3-7 in suspicion/innocence level.

Mine would probably look like this:

1. Eönwë
2. Brinniel
3. Boro
4. Lottie
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Greenie

[Brinniel]

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy Post - yesterDay #1309

ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.

Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.

Originally Posted by NogMod from The Rules

The Innocent Child can reveal herself to be the Innocent Child. In that case the Mod confirms the revelation.

So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.

Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.

So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

Incredible. Absolutely amazing. What a Seer game! I don't know about the wolves, but I didn't think it was you for one second. What a play!

++Kath

I am not the last wolf; my initial reaction would be to say that I don't think it's Boro, either, but I was so wrong about Eonwe, maybe it's not a great idea to trust that at this point! Still, I don't know why a Borowolf would give up control of the QT vote if he secretly knew he had it, so I would guess that the last wolf is Rune.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.


Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.


So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

If this turns out to be true, and I don't see why it shouldn't, it means I have played the worst game ever. I mean, I will have been wrong about 95-100% of my suspicions...

I cannot see any logic in a wolf doing a fake reveal, as they would surely be lynched tomorrow. I guess if the wolves are Brinn and Eönwë it would buy them some time, but it really dosen't seem likely. So yeah, I am very much inclined to believe Brinn.

I am innocent. If Lottie is a wolf then she is ruthless, if Boromir is a wolf then he is very bold. Right now I am inclined to believe that the last wolf is Boromir, but I don't have anything in particular to back it up.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

I really like this way of ranking it. I completely agree, though I'd have Lommy at 6 and Greenie at 7 after the wolves took Shasta's Seer bait. I still think Brinn is the most likely fifth wolf, but I agree that Kath, Boro, or Rune could theoretically be possibilities. If it comes to that, maybe the Seer will be able to narrow down that choice for us some - but hopefully it doesn't come to that!

[Thinlómien]

Amazing!

But, in all fairness, I'm gonna sit on this a sec and see if there's a counter reveal; I think it's the only prudent choice. Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot, right?

Now I don't really see why a wolf!Brinn would choose to save a packmate Eönwë like this - frankly, if there's a competing reveal that says he's a wolf, everyone would rather believe that one.

But something's just very off about the Shasta kill.

Anyway, extremely clever suggestion about the QT which I also think a not-genuine seer would not make.

I need to think a sec and do maths.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But, in all fairness, I'm gonna sit on this a sec and see if there's a counter reveal; I think it's the only prudent choice. Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot, right?

I'm not sure why there would be a counter reveal. The 2 remaining wolves need two innocents lynched to win.

So there is no sense in Brinnwolf faking seer now. If she is, then the real seer should still stay hidden, because lynching an innocent today wouldn't result in wolf victory

Lynch Kath today...

If wolf, then Brinn will surely be killed at night.

If Kath's innocent, then it's clear Brinn was lying and we lynch her tomorrow.

To Brinn, I would say think if who of the unknowns you're going to dream of tonight and lets set up a signal with the QT vote tomorrow.

Say you post before the end of day you're going to dream Lottie.

If Lottie turns up wolf, get the QT to vote Lottie. Game set match.

If Lottie turns up innocent, get the QT to vote for one of the confirmed/dreamed innocents and it would signal to us that you dreamed Lottie innocent. Because even with the QT and the 1 wolf, there would still be enough innocents to not lynch Lottie.

I don't think there's any way of wolves tampering with that signal.

Edit: crossed with Lommy and Brinn

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Mostly good: Lottie, Lommy, Kath, Brinn
Mixed: Greenie
Bad: Boro, Rune

Boro and Rune I already suspect, but I think moving forward it would be worth looking at Greenie more closely.

Interesting...well looking at your votes:

Day 1: Urwen
Day 2: Huey
Day 3: sally
Day 4: Boro
Day 5: Rune
Day 6: Ka

2 confirmed wolves, 2 confirmed innocents, 2 unknowns.

I don't give you credit for The Ka. That was an even more straight forward, organized lynch than Lhuna's. It's more possible wolf-on-wolf voting than anything else we've seen.

With that, I don't give you blame for sally, as everyone assumed wrong when she revealed.

You spent a lot of time yesterday assuming my guilt (after chastising me for doing the same thing earlier) and trying to steer us away from lynching a confirmed wolf, when in the end you voted for Ka, but at a time when it didn't matter

Aside from Huey, your voting is highly suspicious.

Two more wolves. It's gotta be Eonwe, and I'm almost positive the other one is Brinn. I don't want to go around counting any chickens, but I think we're in a good position here.~Lottie

I have a bit of pause here...The Ka's lynch was even more orderly than Lhuna's. The QT gave us Brinn, and we stuck with Shasta's suspicions. I don't think the 2 wolves would be giving up that easily if it was this simple. I think the clear choice of 1 wolf is Eonwe at the moment, but not entirely convinced Brinn is the last.

It could be Rune who has also been sending out seer clues for a few days and perhaps it's an Eonwe/Rune as the last 2. Rune going against Eonwe, and vice versa is their tactic to distance themselves and look favorably to us. I believe, 2 innocents lynched and that's all the wolves need. I pause with assuming Eonwe/Brinn, because yesterday's lynch of Ka looked too simple.

I don't even know if it matters, since the QT appears to like to toy with our votes more than the infectors...but for posterity.

+-Eonwe