Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

Originally Posted by Greenie

I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Based on the above (sorry for the length, but I think it'll be useful analysis fodder later on too), I'd be happiest with lynching Eonwe toDay, followed by Kath or Brinn; I agree with Lommy that the Shasta kill makes Eonwe our best lead. I don't necessarily agree that toDay is a wasted Day, though. Yes, there might be a Seer reveal at some point in the future, and yes, that might mean we'd end up speculating in vain, but having a ghost Day where people just pop in to vote Eonwe and leave gives us very little to go on for toMorrow. Even if we're right about Eonwe, there's still one more wolf out there, and I don't think we should just lie back and wait for the Seer to catch them for us.

I agree with you, but I think there might be a bit of fatigue in the village. Should one of the main suspects turn out innocent, then we would rue a wasted day.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Reading Greenie's (very thoughtful) post, I realised I forgot Rune exists

I get that a lot these days.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie


I agree very much in principle, but in practice I'm feeling a little lazy and I have been playing pretty intensely the whole game so if I'm ever gonna take half a Day off it's gonna be toDay. And I won't judge anyone else for doing the same, provided that (if they're alive) they're gonna be back in full steam toMorrow.

I agree with the overall sentiment of your list, though I find that there isn't much separating 3-7 in suspicion/innocence level.

Mine would probably look like this:

1. Eönwë
2. Brinniel
3. Boro
4. Lottie
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Greenie

[Brinniel]

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy Post - yesterDay #1309

ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.

Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.

Originally Posted by NogMod from The Rules

The Innocent Child can reveal herself to be the Innocent Child. In that case the Mod confirms the revelation.

So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.

Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.

So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

Incredible. Absolutely amazing. What a Seer game! I don't know about the wolves, but I didn't think it was you for one second. What a play!

++Kath

I am not the last wolf; my initial reaction would be to say that I don't think it's Boro, either, but I was so wrong about Eonwe, maybe it's not a great idea to trust that at this point! Still, I don't know why a Borowolf would give up control of the QT vote if he secretly knew he had it, so I would guess that the last wolf is Rune.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

My dear village! It seems you could use the help of your Seer toDay.


Well I did do the math, and considered revealing yesterDay. But once I saw the lynch moving towards The Ka, I decided I needed to risk waiting one more Day and luckily it paid off. Thank you Shasta for putting out seerish vibes and saving me from the wolves one more Night.

So the math...

We have 8 players. 4 ordos, 2 wolves, 1 seer, 1 innocent child.

The good news: I know who 3 out of 4 ordos are: Lommy, Eonwe, Greenie.
The better news: I know 1 out the 2 wolves.

++Kath

That means there is one more wolf hiding among Rune, Boro, and Lottie.


So, if the innocent child comes out toDay, we can confirm the innocence of one more player. Then I can dream toNight and signal who the final wolf is toMorrow via the QT vote. We've got this village.

In case you're wondering about my dreams:

Night 1: Lommy
Night 2: Pitch
Night 3: Lhuna
Night 4: Shasta
Night 5: Eonwe
Night 6: Greenie
Night 7: Kath

If this turns out to be true, and I don't see why it shouldn't, it means I have played the worst game ever. I mean, I will have been wrong about 95-100% of my suspicions...

I cannot see any logic in a wolf doing a fake reveal, as they would surely be lynched tomorrow. I guess if the wolves are Brinn and Eönwë it would buy them some time, but it really dosen't seem likely. So yeah, I am very much inclined to believe Brinn.

I am innocent. If Lottie is a wolf then she is ruthless, if Boromir is a wolf then he is very bold. Right now I am inclined to believe that the last wolf is Boromir, but I don't have anything in particular to back it up.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Let's recapitulate. Wolf likelihood ranking imo:

1. Eönwë
---------------------
2. Brinniel
---------------------
3. Kath
4. Boro
5. Rune
---------------------
6. Greenie
7. Lottie

I really like this way of ranking it. I completely agree, though I'd have Lommy at 6 and Greenie at 7 after the wolves took Shasta's Seer bait. I still think Brinn is the most likely fifth wolf, but I agree that Kath, Boro, or Rune could theoretically be possibilities. If it comes to that, maybe the Seer will be able to narrow down that choice for us some - but hopefully it doesn't come to that!

[Thinlómien]

Amazing!

But, in all fairness, I'm gonna sit on this a sec and see if there's a counter reveal; I think it's the only prudent choice. Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot, right?

Now I don't really see why a wolf!Brinn would choose to save a packmate Eönwë like this - frankly, if there's a competing reveal that says he's a wolf, everyone would rather believe that one.

But something's just very off about the Shasta kill.

Anyway, extremely clever suggestion about the QT which I also think a not-genuine seer would not make.

I need to think a sec and do maths.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But, in all fairness, I'm gonna sit on this a sec and see if there's a counter reveal; I think it's the only prudent choice. Let's not shoot ourselves in the foot, right?

I'm not sure why there would be a counter reveal. The 2 remaining wolves need two innocents lynched to win.

So there is no sense in Brinnwolf faking seer now. If she is, then the real seer should still stay hidden, because lynching an innocent today wouldn't result in wolf victory

Lynch Kath today...

If wolf, then Brinn will surely be killed at night.

If Kath's innocent, then it's clear Brinn was lying and we lynch her tomorrow.

To Brinn, I would say think if who of the unknowns you're going to dream of tonight and lets set up a signal with the QT vote tomorrow.

Say you post before the end of day you're going to dream Lottie.

If Lottie turns up wolf, get the QT to vote Lottie. Game set match.

If Lottie turns up innocent, get the QT to vote for one of the confirmed/dreamed innocents and it would signal to us that you dreamed Lottie innocent. Because even with the QT and the 1 wolf, there would still be enough innocents to not lynch Lottie.

I don't think there's any way of wolves tampering with that signal.

Edit: crossed with Lommy and Brinn

[Kath]

Erm ... no I'm not? I'm mean I'm nothing exciting like the Seer or the Innocent Child either but I'm not a wolf.

I have no time toDay and just popped in to see what was happening. Wasn't expecting this! I'm not going to be around until near deadline now so I guess do what you have to do? The numbers are still on our side if an innocent is lynched toDay I believe so while I'd obviously rather we lynched a wolf toDay, if it's easier just to go for me then so be it.

[Thinlómien]

I have to say, what a game this has been. Absolutely insane and suspenseful. Also a beautiful demonstration that virtually anything can be done by either an innocent or a wolf. There's almost no foolproof logic to things. Also probably people who analyse Night kills might pay more attention than those who committed the Night kills in the first place.

Also did I personally learn anything? If I'm convinced someone's a wolf, they most likely are not. *blowing kisses to Mac, Sally, Inzil and Eönwë*

Wellll at least I got Lhuna and Ka and several of the innocents right........

Originally Posted by Kath

Erm ... no I'm not? I'm mean I'm nothing exciting like the Seer or the Innocent Child either but I'm not a wolf.

I have no time toDay and just popped in to see what was happening. Wasn't expecting this! I'm not going to be around until near deadline now so I guess do what you have to do? The numbers are still on our side if an innocent is lynched toDay I believe so while I'd obviously rather we lynched a wolf toDay, if it's easier just to go for me then so be it.

I'm sure you'd say this as a wolf with no time either, but thank you for not taking the fake reveal route. Even though it would have been entertaining.

[A Little Green]

I think Shasta and Brinn just won us the game.

Actually (smug moment) I did think Brinn was a possible Seer from Day 1. I mean, look at this -

Originally Posted by G55

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!

She literally started her first post of the game with "I come bearing gifts" - and what's even crazier, G55 actually noticed it and pointed it out under the guise of responding to banter. If anything, that exchange made me rather doubt whether Brinn could be the real Seer given that the wolves didn't kill her for it. Well played, hun!

As for the Shasta kill - I think it's possible that the wolves just pegged him as a possible Seer based on his comments about Ka, Lottie and me. To be honest, I first read his stuff about Eonwe as more like someone he suspected and was going to dream next, though admittedly still somewhat incriminating without the knowledge we now have. That whole thing still makes me think Lottie is innocent though, which leaves the last wolf to be Boro or Rune. I'm guessing Rune is the likelier candidate, though I'd still need to try and figure out whether Boro's non-reveal still makes sense as a wolf thing given Eonwe's innocence.

Last thing - smug moments re: Brinn and Kath notwithstanding, I was obviously wrong about Eonwe. Note to self: next time I have a feeling someone is innocent but my logic says they're not, I shouldn't listen to the logic because werewolf isn't a logical game. Sorry Eonwe (not to mention Mac, Sally and Inzil - this hasn't been my brightest game ever ), lesson learned.

Also might as well get this over with -

++Kath

[Thinlómien]

So no counter claim? How boring! I like fake reveals and hunter kills and all kinds of other messy complications

++Kath

Now where's the innocent baby child whose head we all want to pat next for doing well and surviving? I have a guess, but given my track record of guessing anyone's roles (*compulsory side-eye at Boro* ) in this game I think I'll spare myself further humiliation and just shut up...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now where's the innocent baby child whose head we all want to pat next for doing well and surviving? I have a guess, but given my track record of guessing anyone's roles (*compulsory side-eye at Boro* ) in this game I think I'll spare myself further humiliation and just shut up...

I think that's everyone! No counter reveal, so:

I am the Innocent Child.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

To Brinn, I would say think if who of the unknowns you're going to dream of tonight and lets set up a signal with the QT vote tomorrow.

Say you post before the end of day you're going to dream Lottie.

If Lottie turns up wolf, get the QT to vote Lottie. Game set match.

If Lottie turns up innocent, get the QT to vote for one of the confirmed/dreamed innocents and it would signal to us that you dreamed Lottie innocent. Because even with the QT and the 1 wolf, there would still be enough innocents to not lynch Lottie.

Um, I was thinking less complicated than that. Like if the person I dream is innocent then I will not vote for them, but still vote for an unknown.

It would be nice to know who the innocent child is before I decide who to dream of, so I don't waste the dream on them. Anyone?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Um, I was thinking less complicated than that. Like if the person I dream is innocent then I will not vote for them, but still vote for an unknown.

Yeah this makes sense. Now the remaining unknowns are Boro and Rune, so when Brinn has had her dream she knows which one is which, and can just organise the cuties to vote the wolfy one.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think that's everyone! No counter reveal, so:
I am the Innocent Child.

Good job, little one! *pats head*