Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I were to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil

+-Inziladun

I know I am sounding like a broken record, but my secondary choices would be Brinn and Eönwë.

The people I suspect the least at the moment is Pitch, Greenie and Shasta. My good feeling of Shasta I must admit are not based on anything particular save not getting bad vibes and not seeing anything obviously incriminating.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not quoting, I'm on my phone, but Boro's analysis of Inzil's vote yesterday is probably the first thing I can cognitively latch onto and go "hmm, that's a good point, maybe he is suspicious."

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.

Well, I wasn't and am still not a fan of automatically following the QT vote. Yes, they are most likely benevolent at this point and might have information we don't. That means we should seriously consider what they tell us. But should we let them make all the decisions? I don't think so.

So for the whole Lhuna thing, I suspected her but it was more like a few random points and a generic vibe thing, rather than having multiple good reasons to suspect her (like with my top suspect Inzil). So I was not at any point really opposed to lynching her, but there was an undercurrent of hesitation about making decisions on flimsy grounds. I did become a bit more certain about her when I had the time to quickly look at your, Boro's and Brinn's analyses about her.

The whole whether to follow the QT's choice was really a whole another kettle of fish. If the QT had voted for someone I did not suspect very much, I wouldn't have followed their vote. But since they voted for someone I did suspect, it was one factor that made me pick her over my other suspects (some of whom I suspected more). I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree. As far as I can tell, Shasta's suspicion of me goes back to a D1 comment where I called Eönwë's list agreeable (for which I now got the bill) while failing to say the same about Greenie - which in turn has made me more wary of letting Greenie slip through.

Agreed. I'm not sure about Eönwë-Shasta but I keep seeing Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta as things. But it's hard for me to evaluate it because I know both Shasta and Eönwë are among Greenie's best 'downs buddies so that might make them likely to lowkey team up regardless of their alignments, especially if they were innocents genuinely thinking the other one innocent too. But then again, put a bunch of buddies in the same wolf pack, and they'd likely work this way too. Therefore, I've been hesitant to read too much into it, but if Eönwë or Shasta turns out to be a wolf, I think it would prudent to have a closer look at Greenie (and vice versa).

[Thinlómien]

Btw random point aboout Shasta that I keep thinking about everytime I see his signature: I'm not sure what to make of the fact neither his votes nor the wolf kills have had in any way psychic vibes so far. Did the ww break kill his famous powers?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Btw random point aboout Shasta that I keep thinking about everytime I see his signature: I'm not sure what to make of the fact neither his votes nor the wolf kills have had in any way psychic vibes so far. Did the ww break kill his famous powers?

Hey, I called out G55 and Rikae correctly D1! And there was only one Cobbler to find!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Greenie I see, but connecting Eonwe to me feels like a bit of a stretch. He's hovering around the same place Inzil is, where I haven't dug in there, and I've agreed with one or two of the things he's said, but a bunch of other people suspect him so it wouldn't shock me if he ended up being a wolf. With the added caveat that he hammered Huin over Mac.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Based on these interactions alone, I wouldn't rule them out as packmates, although most of it could just be Huiwolf buddying up to innocent Greenie looking for an ally. If Brinn is another wolf, #346 could be an attempt at damage control. On D2 Greenie voted before the Huiwagon got rolling, so nothing to conclude from that.

I would really like to know about Brinn.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, I wasn't and am still not a fan of automatically following the QT vote. Yes, they are most likely benevolent at this point and might have information we don't. That means we should seriously consider what they tell us. But should we let them make all the decisions? I don't think so.

Who there could "have information we don't" besides the wolves?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

Well, yes. With a preponderance of innocence there, we can at least be sure what they send will be at least intentionally good, which is certainly desirable..

[THE Ka]

(Apologise in advance for the long post, have been trying to catch up since 7:30 my time)

Originally Posted by Pitch in reply Post #1093:

because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.

This whole exchange has me curious now, including in mind Shasta’s post #1040 about ‘holding votes is pivotal’. At the end of the exchange, Pitch’s reply sounds genuine, because it is:

Originally Posted by Pitch, in reply to Kath’s question on his vote, post #889

sally - it really felt like a rehashed plot from the Day before, with some of the same arguments that had been used against Mac being used against sally, and since I was feeling miuch better about Mac by then, I was wary of the same happening to sally. Plus, as I said yesterDay, the sallywagon was being pushed (and pushed very hard) by a mixture of people I didn't and don't particularly trust. I had noticed sally hint at her role earlier, so when she revealed I was willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Eönwë - I've been suspecting him since D1, based on a mix of mostly very uncontroversial posting, throwaway vote for Urwen, IMO possibly wolf-on-wolf vote for Hui and eagerness to jump on the sallywagon. I regret not doing this earlier when it could have mattered.

So, my curiosity is, why does Shasta still have misgivings about this and is asking the same question again about the timing of his vote?

Either an attempt to try and see if Pitch will give a different answer and thus, more evidence why, or to try and bring it back into the spot light to push?
If it’s a build suspicion attempt, we’ve seen several over the last few Days and players are wary of them, so this could be concluded as a risky move. Otherwise, they either didn’t spot where Pitch had replied to this same question or had forgotten. Suspicious still, but that could just as much be a villager’s mistake by oversight.


As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

Originally Posted by Zil

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

Later, we have Shasta commenting about their near DL voting and its merits along with some defense in post #1040:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.

Pitch, as they’ve admitted before, regret not voting earlier with the Eonwe vote and later in post #933 agrees with not leaving the votes last minute to help GT analysis. This follows consistent and in post #971, gives an early vote as others had discussed to help out of +-Eonwe. Later in #1030, Pitch votes Eonwe (making a second vote to Eonwe at that point), noting that he had some hesitation given Lhuna’s earlier vote for them as well, but does so consistent to what he had said earlier over others agreeing to spread the votes and not wait for right before DL.

Regardless of vote and how the QT vote went, out of the Eonwe voters this paints Pitch in a much more genuine and consistent light. There is little to no flip flopping near the middle or end of a bandwagon that might be considered suspicious of wolf trying to appear invested and hide at the same time, nor is there a habit of throwing a bunch of suspicion posts out at players and seeing what sticks and going for it. All in all between the two, this speaks more to Pitch’s innocence.

As for Shasta, it’s interesting to watch their pattern before voting when it comes to reactions to both Eonwe’s lists and then later, Rune’s suspicion of Eonwe.

In post #1005, Shasta quotes Eonwe’s list, but gives a non-commited judgement saying there are parts they agree with in the ranking and others they’re confused about:

I'm so confused about how I feel about this list. Parts of it I love (Boro, Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Lottie to a lesser extent) and parts of it I hate (Pitch, Rune, Ka and Lalaith to a lesser extent.)
What does it all mean?!

The last bit is curious. Is it a subtle signal to Eonwe or just open ended wondering?

Later on in post #1008, Rune replies to Shasta’s suspicions about his previous post, which he was called-out for an ‘odd turnaround’:

What is?
The Lommy comments?
Can't I find behaviour unhelpful and even suspicious without it automatically qualifying a person for being a quarantine candidate?
Or were you referring to something else?

Shasta replies in #1012:

It sounds, to me, like in the first post you're suspicious of her, then in the second, you absolutely don't want to vote her (which translates into not being suspicious of her, to me.) People change their minds, of course, but that seemed to take place in a very short timespan. It drew my eye because I suspect Lommy, so it was like, "Yeah, I agree with this - wait, what?"

This is the second player besides Pitch that Shasta directly starts questioning after they’ve either voiced a suspicion to or have voted for Eonwe. Arguably in the context, this is one of the more consistent elements Shasta has.

Rune later in post #1028 votes Eonwe, stating that they will not have time to return before DL. This at least, still appears to be meeting the earlier sentiment of others on avoiding last minute votes before DL and spreading for analysis. A vote for Eonwe is also consistent to Rune’s suspicions on them in previous game Days.

Shasta then in post #1031 notes that Lhuna, Pitch, and Rune have made a ‘counter wagon’ to the Lhuna one and voices mistrust. Shasta later goes on to vote Lhuna, making it the 6th vote for them and stating that another wagon they prefer is likely not going to come along.

This is fairly consistent of Shasta voting later on but runs counter to other players that Day wanting to aim for more beneficial earlier votes in order to spread them and avoid hiding places for wolves.

Looking back at these exchanges, I can’t for these arguments find Rune or Pitch that suspicious for their votes. Yes, they didn’t choose Lhuna, but then again, in context of their previous suspicions, Lhuna was not either high up on their list of candidates or there. Honestly it appears they were trying to remain consistent with what evidence they had and trusted and go with that, than trying to throw suspicion around and see what stuck to make something to stand on for their arguments.
I really don’t see wolves being this dedicated to sticking to an argument when there are other ones that are much more convenient to hide in or push. Out of the three, I’m growing more and more suspicious of Shasta and how their interest will defensively spike around others looking at Eonwe.

x'ed with Rune, Zil, Pitch, Kath, Lommy, etc...

[Loslote]

I caught up just in time to have to hop on Zoom meetings until just before the QT deadline. I might be able to pop in here and there, but in case I end up super busy and can't post:

@Cuties:
+- Ka
+- Zil

[Kath]

Ooh, forgot I hadn't done this in my earlier post.

+-Inzil
or
+-Eonwe

And I'd like to take a closer look at Brinn and Shasta if time permits.

[THE Ka]

For the QT (because I forgot in my novel there before...):
+-Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

Now I'm very curious in you.
Why are you trying to distance yourself from your previous actions of defending Eonwe to Rune and Pitch when they voiced suspicion, but not with my digging? If we're speaking of my 'last stuff'.

Originally Posted by Zil

Does that put Steve as the lynchpin?

I believe so, at least with Shasta, but I do not know who else. As said before, I don't see either Rune or Pitch being connected as they've been fairly consistent in their suspicion of Eonwe and as almost a knee-jerk reaction, Shasta starts to show sudden interest yesterDay then backs off toDay when it starts to get uncomfortable by association.