Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kath]

I'm thinking back to my suspicions the last few Days. Inzil and Lhuna have been top, and pretty much for the same reasons around their behaviour with Kit and the ensuring Ranger debacle.

Then Eonwe as well as he got involved with it all, but then quickly backed off it and berated people the following Day for bringing it up, even though he had been involved.

Votes:
Inzil voted G55 Day 1, Mac Day 2 (putting Mac ahead of Hui in the tally), Brinn Day 3 (post-reveal), Lommy Day 4 (post QT vote)
Pushed Mac into the lead over Hui, but then didn't vote him the following Day.

Eonwe voted Urwen Day 1, Hui Day 2 (if he hadn't voted, and Shasta had, it would have been Mac lynched), sally Day 3 (pre-reveal), Boro Day 4 (pre QT vote)
After being quite the key player in the Hui lynch, Eonwe has then voted very early in the proceedings since. If a wolf, might be a safe move after throwing a packmate under the wagon.

While looking at Eonwe's very helpful vote summary for that, it keeps being said that Shasta is holding his vote frequently. Brinn and Boro are in the same boat with that. And Brinn's votes were key for the G55 lynch (self preservation but it was the deciding vote) and the Hui lynch (put Hui ahead of Mac) but then more following the crowd for sally and Lhuna.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm thinking back to my suspicions the last few Days. Inzil and Lhuna have been top, and pretty much for the same reasons around their behaviour with Kit and the ensuring Ranger debacle.

Then Eonwe as well as he got involved with it all, but then quickly backed off it and berated people the following Day for bringing it up, even though he had been involved.

I mentioned it twice. The first time I suggested that given Shasta's post about having the same feeling as Kit (that I later did and still do - for now - believe was made to diffuse the situation), as well as their synchronized voting the previous Day could be a way for wolves to be 'too obvious to be packmates'. If I were a wolf, what would have been the point of suspecting someone who I thought was the Ranger (who would have been the kill pick) and trying to link her to someone else? Presumably, even if I could make it look like I didn't believe her (thus de-linking me from the kill), the connection to Shasta would be pointless.

The second time I mentioned it, it had already been blown wide open, so I mostly thought it would be good to discuss how it made Shasta look.

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.

Originally Posted by Kath

Eonwe voted Urwen Day 1, Hui Day 2 (if he hadn't voted, and Shasta had, it would have been Mac lynched), sally Day 3 (pre-reveal), Boro Day 4 (pre QT vote)
After being quite the key player in the Hui lynch, Eonwe has then voted very early in the proceedings since. If a wolf, might be a safe move after throwing a packmate under the wagon.

I find it interesting that before this, you've only ever mentioned my voting in that you've quoted Lhuna saying it was bad. And now you're going along with it?

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.

Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

That is fair. We have evidence that a known wolf did engage in this discussion. On the other hand, would they all want to associate themselves with each other and that discussion? But point taken.

[Boromir88]

A Kath-alysis

Day 1

Big contribution to the day was arguing that the proposed vote for the QT, was not Legate's idea, but G55's. Legate added to it, but she was the first to point out it originated from G55. Questions Huey about his suspicions of Mac. Suggests Mac and Pitch are the next big dust up brewing. (Turned out to be G55 and Rikae).

Votes G55. I can't see anything suspicious with Kath's Day 1 actions...other than she did vote on Day 1. She seemed primarily focused on LGP that dominated the earlier half. Settled on G55 for trying to pass the responsibility of the proposed voting onto Legate.

Day 2

Analyzes the Day 1 vote. Most suspicious vote she seemed to be saying came from Eonwe's throwaway to Urwen. Primary contribution I would say is she doesn't follow along with those saying Rikae's death framed them. Thinks more likely wolves were gifted-hunting.

Votes Inzil for pressing on about Kit being a ranger. Day 2 was between Mac and Huey, but Inzil vote looks reasoned.

Day 3

Defends why she voted for Inzil and Lhuna was her 2nd choice. Reasons being how Kit appeared to be pressed too much into revealing by Inzil and Lhuna. Votes Inzil again.

Her focus this day is on those who were pressing Kit on Day 2. Those were 2 quite lengthy posts.

Day 4

Seems to disapprove of all the revealing going on from the first 3 days. Her first post of the day focused on sally's reveal and how everyone reacted. Questions me if I believed sally's reveal. Proposes to QT to vote either Inzil or Lhuna. Looks through Lhuna's post, decides to vote Lhuna. Puts Lhuna up to 5, Eonwe 3.

Vote looks solid. If Kath was a wolf, she pretty much stabbed Lhuna in the back and turned the knife.

I haven't looked at her posts yet today. Want to try to get to a few other people...

Overall impression is feeling innocent. She focuses on one path each day, doesn't get sidetracked by all the other stuff going on. A decisive vote to lynch Lhuna when a wolf still could have saved her.

I also really just enjoy her style of questioning. It's direct and straight forward. No veiled suspicions or tricks. A simple "Did you believe sally's reveal or not?" "What did you mean with the Legate-G55-Pitch kerfuffle from Day 1?" She's probing for information, but they're not "gotcha" questions, I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.

[Boromir88]

Well, I was going to do a Ka-alysis, but I see I've cross posted with some current action regarding THE Ka and Shasta so I will read that now.

[Thinlómien]

Boro's analysis of Kath makes her look quite good, but I have to disagree about the Lhuna vote. Even if Kath had voted Eönwë, Lhuna would still have been on the lead because she reached 4 votes first. There would have still needed to be more subsequent votes for Eönwë than for Lhuna to save her, and that's why I don't think Kath's vote was that pivotal. Sure, she was in a place to give Lhuna a fighting chance. But I don't think she was in a place to save her. I can see a packmate not considering it worth it.

(Given that I'm quite suspicious of Eönwë, I can't help but to think what if the two bandwagons actually formed between two wolves yesterDay and they weren't (in a position to be) decisive enough to try to turn the tide. In that case no one's Lhuna-vote makes much difference except maybe the very first ones. But yeah this is a whole another kettle of fish again.)


PS.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I feel like I'm almost certainly going to vote for Ka now, but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by thinlómien

ps.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Boromir88]

I'm anxious to see who the QT gives us to think about today. Does anyone have a tally of our proposed votes for the QT?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Boro's analysis of Kath makes her look quite good, but I have to disagree about the Lhuna vote. Even if Kath had voted Eönwë, Lhuna would still have been on the lead because she reached 4 votes first. There would have still needed to be more subsequent votes for Eönwë than for Lhuna to save her, and that's why I don't think Kath's vote was that pivotal. Sure, she was in a place to give Lhuna a fighting chance. But I don't think she was in a place to save her. I can see a packmate not considering it worth it.

Well, Kath couldn't have known what I was going to do, but I was holding onto my vote, because there were a few (myself included) who had votes and didn't want to see lynched. Ok, maybe not the most pivotal/decisive vote, but I was waiting around to see who people were going to vote for and whether they were going with the QT or not. Definitely made my vote much easier than previous days, because I did view it as solidifying Lhuna's lynch, when there was still an opportunity to save her.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

@Cuties:
+- Ka
+- Zil

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

+-Eönwë

but I could as well go for +-THE Ka or +-Inziladun.

Are we just picking the two most likely wolves as per Greenie's analysis now?
I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.


For the Cuties:


+- Eönwë (loose thread in the Gordian Knot)
+- Zil (not fully convinced but rather than anyone else at this point)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Are we just picking the two most likely wolves as per Greenie's analysis now?
I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.


For the Cuties:


+- Eönwë (loose thread in the Gordian Knot)
+- Zil (not fully convinced but rather than anyone else at this point)

Purposely infecting people with Morgoth's Breath is meaner.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Purposely infecting people with Morgoth's Breath is meaner.

Well, when you put it that way....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by inziladun

well, when you put it that way....

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

So, my curiosity is, why does Shasta still have misgivings about this and is asking the same question again about the timing of his vote?

Either an attempt to try and see if Pitch will give a different answer and thus, more evidence why, or to try and bring it back into the spot light to push?
If it’s a build suspicion attempt, we’ve seen several over the last few Days and players are wary of them, so this could be concluded as a risky move. Otherwise, they either didn’t spot where Pitch had replied to this same question or had forgotten. Suspicious still, but that could just as much be a villager’s mistake by oversight.

Except that I wasn't asking Pitch a question at all - I was commenting on the "agreeableness" (heh) of a comment he made.

Here's the exchange in its entirety.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Explain.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

"Man, we really messed up, voting the Hunter like that. Aw, shucks."

Sounds rather "agreeable", no?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No you're right, I haven't yet responded to this:

because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.

(Sidenote - Pitch, I think it's an entirely fair representation; those are literally your words and your context. And it's agreeable. And you're known for being an agreeable wolf - it's literally your tagline. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

So this bit from Ka is based off a faulty premise to begin with.

Moving on -

Originally Posted by THE Ka

As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

Later, we have Shasta commenting about their near DL voting and its merits along with some defense in post #1040:

Pitch, as they’ve admitted before, regret not voting earlier with the Eonwe vote and later in post #933 agrees with not leaving the votes last minute to help GT analysis. This follows consistent and in post #971, gives an early vote as others had discussed to help out of +-Eonwe. Later in #1030, Pitch votes Eonwe (making a second vote to Eonwe at that point), noting that he had some hesitation given Lhuna’s earlier vote for them as well, but does so consistent to what he had said earlier over others agreeing to spread the votes and not wait for right before DL.

Regardless of vote and how the QT vote went, out of the Eonwe voters this paints Pitch in a much more genuine and consistent light. There is little to no flip flopping near the middle or end of a bandwagon that might be considered suspicious of wolf trying to appear invested and hide at the same time, nor is there a habit of throwing a bunch of suspicion posts out at players and seeing what sticks and going for it. All in all between the two, this speaks more to Pitch’s innocence.

As for Shasta, it’s interesting to watch their pattern before voting when it comes to reactions to both Eonwe’s lists and then later, Rune’s suspicion of Eonwe.

In post #1005, Shasta quotes Eonwe’s list, but gives a non-commited judgement saying there are parts they agree with in the ranking and others they’re confused about:

The last bit is curious. Is it a subtle signal to Eonwe or just open ended wondering?

I'm having trouble parsing exactly what point Ka is trying to make re: comparing Pitch and my voting-early-vs-voting-late stuff, but I don't actually think it matters all that much because again, none of that interaction on my end was aimed at Pitch; I was mostly responding to Lommy's annoyance:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Voting late enough again not to make a difference? Seeeeriously, Shasta.

As far as my post responding to Eonwe's list - that bit by Ka feels more like a reach than anything else. That post is literally me wondering out loud what it meant that my suspicions and Eonwe's list were both so similar and so radically different - did it make Eonwe more innocent in my eyes since we had those similarities, or more guilty because of those differences? (I tend to have a habit of reading people through their reactions to me and whether their suspicions jive with mine because I am egomaniacal.)

Re: Rune - here's the flip-flop in its entirety.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Almost done reading through todays action, and my initial thoughts are thus:

Lommy’s involvement in the Sally lynch, definitely makes me wary of her. To me, it was one of the most nonsensical things I have seen in a long time. I must note however that a known innocent (Legate), defended Lommy’s reasoning. So yeah, Lommy moves up my list of suspicions, but it would not be prudent to make that our only focal point.

I don’t care for Inzil's way of pushing the Lommy agenda, nor do I like the energetic way in which Lommy seems to pursue the tactic of “the best defence is an attack” today.

I get good vibes from Pitch and Lalaith so far today.

Also I like that you have gone with the early fake votes.

Underlining mine. Exactly ten minutes later:

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

If I was to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil, Eonwe or Brinn.
I am currently flipflopping on whom I suspect the most, and I would also like to look a little on Lhuna and Boro before I vote. People that I haven't been able to get a read on, but whom interesting points have been made.

+- Inzil
+- Eonwe
+- Brinn


Lastly I wouldn't want to vote Lommy today, yesterday was foolish and suspicious, but in it self not something that convinces me of her guilt.

This whole series has nothing to do with Eonwe - Rune barely mentions him as someone he might vote. To postulate that as a pattern of behavior, as Ka does here -

Originally Posted by The Ka

This is the second player besides Pitch that Shasta directly starts questioning after they’ve either voiced a suspicion to or have voted for Eonwe. Arguably in the context, this is one of the more consistent elements Shasta has.

- is not only inaccurate (was the first player supposed to be Pitch? Because again - I wasn't questioning him), it actually evidences the same underlying focus on Eonwe that Ka is accusing me of.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

This is fairly consistent of Shasta voting later on but runs counter to other players that Day wanting to aim for more beneficial earlier votes in order to spread them and avoid hiding places for wolves.

And? Sorry to be so blunt about it, but is "running counter to other players" in and of itself a basis for wolvishness now? I don't believe that, and I don't actually believe Ka believes it either.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Out of the three, I’m growing more and more suspicious of Shasta and how their interest will defensively spike around others looking at Eonwe.

K. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

------------------

To sum this whole thing up - I feel strongly that this is opportunistic-Ka. Lommy mentioned earlier that I haven't been talked about or suspected much until today. That makes the timing of this suspicion from Ka fairly suspect, IMO. Added to that is how quite a chunk of it is based on a faulty premise and something I consider flimsy at best (holding my vote til late) - the whole thing makes me feel strongly that Ka doesn't actually believe this case of hers, and simply put it together to give the appearance of hunting wolves (and pointing at an opportune target that's been mentioned by several people today as "someone to look at.")

The most damning thing, though, IMO, is this -

Originally Posted by THE Ka

- because the crux of her case and the point she spent the most time fleshing out is that I seem to be "defensively spiking around Eonwe"; which means in the case of Shastawolf you naturally have to have Eonwolf as well, because why else would Shastawolf be "defensively spiking"?

Yet there's no real mention of Eonwe at all in Ka's recent stuff, when Eonwe seems to have been picking up suspicion from the rest of the village. And her QT vote was for me. It really smacks of Ka distancing from Eonwe, in my opinion.



Now I know there have been posts since my last, so I'll go look at them.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta, in your long post you attribute this quote

As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

to me and it's not my quote. I'm pretty sure it's THE Ka because she typoed "GT" at least once and it made me smile because it made me think of the quarantined people being in "gin tonic" thread.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Shasta, in your long post you attribute this quote
to me and it's not my quote. I'm pretty sure it's THE Ka because she typoed "GT" at least once and it made me smile because it made me think of the quarantined people being in "gin tonic" thread.

Crap, yeah, it's Ka. There's a lot of formatting in that post. I'll fix it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I feel like I'm almost certainly going to vote for Ka now, but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi I am reading through the thread right now, but thought I would comment on Shastas long posts (don't know if my own quotes are included)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Re: Rune - here's the flip-flop in its entirety.



Underlining mine. Exactly ten minutes later:



This whole series has nothing to do with Eonwe - Rune barely mentions him as someone he might vote. To postulate that as a pattern of behavior, as Ka does here -

I guess I can see how arrive at that conclusion, if of course you don't understand the context of the posts.

Anyways, let me explain. The first post is me reacting to the events of the day as I read through the thread. It might be a short post, but it was actually put together over the course of 45 minutes or so.

My post 10 minutes later is a summarization of my top suspects.
You see when I decide who to cast my vote for, i normally take into account what has happened through out the game, and not just during the last day.

So put simply the posts wasn't intended to align 1:1 or be a continuation of one another, as they did not deal with the same issues.