Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[satansaloser2005]

For Greenie: I just mean mathematically speaking. I honestly don't know how I feel about Dun.

I must paint! Back soon.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi just letting you know that I am around, but I am not yet caught up with events. I have about 63 posts to go through.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally feels scrambly here.

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

YES. THANK YOU.

I mean, it's super not ideal, but there are other things that imply guilt, so quit focusing on the one thing almost everyone did wrong.


x'd with Pitch

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

For my part, I think bringing it up yesterDay while Kit was still alive was based wolfy logic - if you're a wolf, you know who your packmates are, so you know that Kit either is a Ranger or an innocent who said something weird/is planning for a potential fake-reveal for some complicated plan. If you're an innocent, you're more suspicious of everyone and thus you might be less inclined to accept it as 100% truth.

So if you're a wolf, looking at those who are avoiding what seems obvious to you is low-hanging fruit for manufacturing suspicion. But there is no reason for an innocent to suspect that a wolf that believes that Kit is the Ranger is going have her as suspicious if they're just going to kill her in the Night, especially given that (IIRC) no-one had Kit as their main suspect, so it didn't look like they were going for a lynch either.

To summarise: it makes sense for innocents to not want to just immediately (and definitely not publicly) accept Kit as the Ranger, so I'm wary of those that suspected people for not doing so yesterDay, especially since I think wolves are more likely to have the thought process that leads to that seeming like something that could be suspicious (and therefore good for manufacturing fake suspicions).

[Eönwë]

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally

[Kath]

I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post so:

++INZIL

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

I think they are doing this to give us no info, plus potentially even discourage us from it (depending what Brinn is). Anyway, clearly messing with us in some way, that's for sure.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

Breeeeep. Disagreed. I'd almost be tempted to shove it in the QT's face and vote her. But let's think about this for a sec.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

Yes, this is one, fairly plausible, option, in my opinion.

EDIT: x-ed since what I quoted

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also a quick list I made for myself just before I came back here:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

That's also a good point.

As for my vote, I would perhaps prefer something like either Brinn, Boro or Eönwë. Kinda switching between reasons for each.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Lommy

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Possible - this is certainly about as little new content as they could have given us. I don't think we can deduce anything regarding Brinn's role from this though, as this would have been a fairly smart move from Huin and G55 regardless of whether Brinn is on their side or not.

I agree. I believe this votes is designed to mess with us more than anything else, and it is certainly working on me.

Anyways I am caught up, but my quick read-through has not yielded any new suspicions. I am impressed with how much information (non-verified) this village can deduct from voting patterns, no really you guys are awesome at this.

I am still feeling uneasy about Eonwe and Lottie.
Lottie's arbitrary and flexible rules for when a bandwagon starts bothers me a great deal, but I am willing to admit that the timing of her vote yesterday makes her look good (I am sorry if this is too non commital Brinn).
And for Eonwe it is the whole Kitanna thing.

I will go back and have a look at Inzil and Sally, as votes seem to center on them at the moment.

[A Little Green]

Past bedtime for me I'm afraid.

As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before. Wouldn't be averse to lynching Boro either but haven't really had a good enough look at him to be sure, and also curious about Lhuna and Lommy and still not discounting Mac or Brinn but leaving them alone for now as there are stronger cases against the aforementioned others. At the time of writing this the tally looks like 1 for Sally and 1 for Brinn from the Cuties. Might as well go with -

++ Sally

Goodnight!

[Thinlómien]

Ka, I'm so sorry <3 Please do what feels best for you, don't worry about us. Whatever your role, it's not more important than real life. We will survive without you or without your super involved participation. Sending lots of hugs your way.

~*~

Not buying Sally's theatrics.

Originally Posted by Sally

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?

It is possible but why is it *likely*, Sally? Even if you were innocent yourself, you should have no idea about Zil. Addendum: oh, so this is just about maths? Not a very strong argument, given that maths doesn't take into account that you both voted to save a known wolf.

I suggest we ignore the QT vote. I think voting Brinn is a way to mislead us - by voting the same person as before a wolf joined their ranks, they're doing their best to refuse to give us new information.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

Thank you, this is what I've been trying to say. Probably the Kit discussion was abunch of innocents and wolves who weren't thinking through their actions and it. would. once. again. make. more. sense. to. look. at. yesterDay's. lynch. which. involved. a. known. wolf. thnx.

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.

It was me being sarcastic with Mac saying, no one else would follow because it came from him:

Lommy makes more sense at this point for obvious reasons. The mere fact that I voted for her probably makes it unlikely for her to gather any additional votes.~Mac

And well he was correct.

Edit: And now I read Ka's post. So, sorry to hear that . Hope you got some joy from being able to come back, but don't feel bad. We'll manage.

[Lalaith]

also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.

[Lalaith]

[RL] The Ka - I'm so sorry for your loss. My condolences to you and yours - I wish you all strength and courage in having to cope with this sad event at a time which is already difficult. [/RL]

[Brinniel]

Most Concerned About:
Inzil
Sally
Lhuna

Somewhat Worried About:
Boro
Rune
Lalaith
Eonwe

Not Sure About:
Kath
Ka
Shasta
Greenie
Lottie

Feeling Okay About:
Pitch
Lommy
Legate
Mac

I'm torn between voting Inzil and Sally. I think that at least of them are wolves, but I'm not sure if both of them are. And I'd like to hear more from Lhuna since she hasn't really been around toDay.

[Macalaure]

On Day 1, he starts goofing around and then jumps straight into lists, none of which seem particularly useful, I hate to say. I noticed that he was very quick to explain himself to Huin at the mildest criticism.

Originally Posted by Boro

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder.

Originally Posted by Boro

In the larger group of "under the radars" there are most assuredly wolves. Larger group, easier to stay on the outskirts. A Day 1 vote for a player in this group is low risk, but low reward. Because a lot of the "under the radar" Day 1 behavior is also a sign of ordo villagers who don't have much to say, due to a lack of Day 1 information. And they are forced to wait for information to go on.

Then there's a smaller group of "loud/active" players, and the "under the radars" need this group to stir conversation/discussion. A day 1 "shot in the dark" vote for someone in the smaller group is higher risk, but also higher reward. It's a smaller group so better percentage the shot hits a wolf. Higher risk though because that shot could also inadvertently hit a gifted.

He makes a shockingly negligible amount of sense here.

In #169 he tallies up fake votes (cue rolleyes), responds to Lommy calling him weird, and chimes in on the LPG thing, which was the talk of the Day anyway. He ends up voting for Pitchwife after contributing next to no substance for a whole Day. However, when prodded by Kath he is able to provide some insight into his thinking.


Agrees with Inzil on Eonwe's throwaway vote. In his vote analysis he pretty much ignores all votes not for Gala. I feel like we don't know enough roles yet to tell whether this was conveniently done or because he can only follow so many strings at a time. We all do that, so I don't want to outright suspect him for admitting to it. Huin, however, did vote for Gala, and this bit here is interesting:

Originally Posted by Boro

(Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious

Pointing to Huin, but no, not really.

He declares Brinn his main suspect, because she fell into Rikae's trap and he explains it at length in #363. He responds to Huin's criticism with a one-liner, though a sensible one to be fair. In #436 he defends himself quite defensively at people criticizing his focus on one group. I still get what he's saying, but still, depending on roles, this might have been very convenient. I think this is a very interesting thing to keep in mind as more roles are revealed.

When Huin came up as a possible lynch, before him getting a vote, he says it might be too late to start considering him. Instead he analyzes Lhuna, finds her suspicious, but shows no intention of actually voting for her. He lets time pass as the deadline nears.

Originally Posted by Boro

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

Originally Posted by Boro

I've said nothing about Mac, because everyone else has said quite a lot. He looks the suspicious and paranoid part and then he doesn't. His vote for Lommy doesn't feel right, but could be from I just don't find Lommy suspicious.

This has a feel of willingness to lynch while keeping his hands clean. One the one hand, on the other. I didn't say anything, but others have. Yuck.

He's been pushing for Brinniel, if you can call that pushing. He seems rather relaxed to drop that in light of the QT vote, and now is happy to go with the flow. Afterwards says that Brinniel moving on to other things and me insisting on the frame-stuff affected his decision. Meh, fair enough, I suppose, except his suspicion on Brinn was solely based on Rikae's trap on Day1, as far as I can see, so I'm not sure this goes together 100%.

Votes fairly late. If he already made up his mind to vote for me and not Huin, why the wait?


ToDay, his analysis of Huin is sadly sparse in actual conclusions. He does find it unlikely that me and Huin are both wolves. So, go me? There's not much else to say for the whole day. He talks a lot, but instead of being rock-solid, his points all feel like silly putty.


Boro feels off. The thing that gives me pause is, when prodded, he actually gives very solid reasons. What he said in response to Kath regarding the LPG, the thought process with Rikae's trap, all that is solid.

There's some suspicious connection with Huin, but not a strong one. Might just be the normal amount that any innocent randomly accumulates over time. I don't want to be "paranoid"...

He's not putting me at ease at all, though. He's definitely in my list of suspects, just not at the top at this point. There are heads more ready for rolling. I feel with him, as we get hopefully more valuable info over the next Day or so, things will clear up with him. Then he can either have my axe, or my axe in the back.


I missed a whole bunch of posts thinking and writing this out. Catching up now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.

Sure, but not in ways that will get them immediately suspected. Wolves play safer than Cobblers do, on the whole, because it's more important for them to stay alive.

[Brinniel]

++Sally

If she's the hunter, I don't understand why she would not say her pick.

X-ed with a bunch of posts

[satansaloser2005]

Crap, I missed where I was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Lottie right now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

crap, i missed where i was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Lottie right now.

Don't.

[Loslote]

Cool. Well, I'm pretty positive Sally's a wolf, but if she isn't and she hunts me, I am going to be so, so mad.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Crap, I missed where I was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Lottie right now.

Only *I ALONE* asked it like FIVE TIMES (okay, maybe only four, heh?)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Only *I ALONE* asked it like FIVE TIMES (okay, maybe only four, heh?)

I haven't been keeping up.