Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Maybe I'm just thick, but is the Dead activity really going to give the Living much useful info, other than the knowledge that the Dead gave someone an extra vote (for, to the Living, unknown motives)?

If we have a clear plan, the empowerment won't be based on unknown motives. There will be three clear options - empower someone from one group of people if person x was innocent, from a second group if evil, and from a third, failsafe group if something is wrong. That way, the Dead have options for who they want to empower in order to convey the information, and we can avoid the situation where the Dead don't want to vote for the person we selected as the "person x was innocent" message.

This assumes the Dead reveal the roles in order of arrival, but I think that's reasonable, and if they have to depart from the plan, they can use the failsafe and wait for a Visitor to deliver the more complicated message.

[Boromir88]

I was intending to break a tie. But I'll take the rest to the grave with me.

I'm here for the rest of the day. Reading, catching up and I guess I'll go from there and see if today brings any changes.

Good to see everyone here and some healthy participation.

[Boromir88]

In theory, maybe the EW didn't create a wolf N1. So, D1 there was no wolf and the EW was just trying to get a lynch/small chance to expose the GW/gifted. What would be the advantage to create a wolf N1, other than create a small chance of possibly losing the wolf in a lucky D1 lynch? If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If we have a clear plan, the empowerment won't be based on unknown motives. There will be three clear options - empower someone from one group of people if person x was innocent, from a second group if evil, and from a third, failsafe group if something is wrong. That way, the Dead have options for who they want to empower in order to convey the information, and we can avoid the situation where the Dead don't want to vote for the person we selected as the "person x was innocent" message.

But if the lists of whom to empower, as set out by Steve are alphabetical, doesn't that have a innate randomness?

Leeroy, I'm starting to sympathize.

Originally Posted by Loslote

This assumes the Dead reveal the roles in order of arrival, but I think that's reasonable, and if they have to depart from the plan, they can use the failsafe and wait for a Visitor to deliver the more complicated message.

Then again, the wait for either Visitor could be a protracted one.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In theory, maybe the EW didn't create a wolf N1. So, D1 there was no wolf and the EW was just trying to get a lynch/small chance to expose the GW/gifted. What would be the advantage to create a wolf N1, other than create a small chance of possibly losing the wolf in a lucky D1 lynch? If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

You could be right. Odds are we do have a wolf now, though.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

But if the lists of whom to empower, as set out by Steve are alphabetical, doesn't that have a innate randomness?

We want there to be at least a couple of possible people to empower for each option, so that the Dead aren't forced to affect the vote in a way they didn't want. The alphabetical ordering is just one way of dividing the living into groups, we could go with another. Most methods of dividing into groups are going to be about as good as the others, though.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We want there to be at least a couple of possible people to empower for each option, so that the Dead aren't forced to affect the vote in a way they didn't want. The alphabetical ordering is just one way of dividing the living into groups, we could go with another. Most methods of dividing into groups are going to be about as good as the others, though.

Well, they don't have to empower anyone, do they?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, they don't have to empower anyone, do they?

No, but we don't want to put them in a position where they have to chose between communicating information and not messing up the lynch. Having options gives them the ability to both communicate and potentially have some impact on the lynch vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can't believe he was targeted as a potential Good Wizard. From the evil point of view, would the Good Wizard really go so far on a limb Day 1 to cast a vote on a wolf he'd scryed? And how likely would it have been that the GW would forego a Gifted creation on Night 1, lacking any data on anyone, just to randomly pick someone for a role-reveal?

Context- more likely than the other scenario that a Wolflote killed him out of spite/panic. That was my only point. (Honestly I don't find her particularly suspicious anyway.)

x/d with the Mod- so the EW and wolves might have had some benefit to going after a possible GW Morsul- except they didn't have this clarification at that time.

Ahem. How do you know???

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ahem. How do you know???

Ahem. Because Kuru just said it toDay?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You could be right. Odds are we do have a wolf now, though.

Point being. it might be worth taking a look at those voting and who were pursuing a lynch yesterday as EW suspects. Granted, one of the more vocal "lynch someone" voices was Morsul.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In theory, maybe the EW didn't create a wolf N1. So, D1 there was no wolf and the EW was just trying to get a lynch/small chance to expose the GW/gifted. What would be the advantage to create a wolf N1, other than create a small chance of possibly losing the wolf in a lucky D1 lynch? If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

I think that the EW wouldn't get a kill if they waited for N2, based on what Kuru said earlier:

Originally Posted by Kuru

This would not be possible. The Evil Wizard couldn't create and then kill that wolf in the same NIGHT. If the Evil Wizard tried something like this the victim would go to the Dead Thread as an Ordo.

Based on that, it seems like the wolf isn't actually a wolf until dawn breaks. I think. Could we get a rule clarification, Kuru?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

And this is exactly the question I was asking (and Kuru hasn't answered yet)!

Absolutely secure innocent-lynch (unless lynched herself) on D1 and still a possibility to kill someone on N2 when recruiting her first wolf only on the very same N2 would be a no-brainer for the EW.

Kuru's answer was not to this question. He answered to a question (which I at least didn't intend to ask), whether the EW could Nightkill the same wolf she turns into a wolf the same Night. It is a totally different question and not one that would help us determining whether there was a wolf around on D1 - aka. whether reading yesterday's voting fex. is totally worth zero or worth at least a try.


Another quick point - just as a remainder - the Dead might not see as the most beneficial course of action to be the "messenger boys and girls" who make insecure attempts at telling the living who someone (of lesser consequence by game terms) was or is if they can for example lynch a baddie with their vote - or point to a known villain with it.

The Dead know who is important to know for the living - the Living only shoot in the dark - well not necessarily in the first Days but later the difference becomes remarkable - and at least later on the Living should not think they are the ones on the driving seat because they are the blind ones while the Dead are not.

*Goes back to read more*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Dead know who is important to know for the living - the Living only shoot in the dark - well not necessarily in the first Days but later the difference becomes remarkable - and at least later on the Living should not think they are the ones on the driving seat because they are the blind ones while the Dead are not.

The communication plans are absolutely less useful in late game. For one thing, the groups become smaller and smaller for each option, giving the Dead less flexibility and power. For another, the Visitors will have started to come into play, giving us more information than can be communicated via the empowerment vote. Probably around Day 5 we would have to drop the plan to some extent, or make serious alterations. That's fine, though. It doesn't have to work for the whole game. This kind of plan is extremely useful in the early game, and having it in place early on can help us get our footing. One vote is not likely to change the lynch when we still have 10+ people voting, and the Dead are not likely to be online en masse close enough to DL to tailor their vote to how the livings' votes are going anyway. Pretty much all the empowerment vote can be used for the first few times is communication.

EDIT: xed with Boro

[Nogrod]

*Surfacing back before reading all of toDay just to bring forth an idea*

How about this?

We the Living consider the votes of the Dead as a kind of advice of an older sibling or parent - they know more but are not infallible. And we should probably do this in an increasing scale of trust that there is a point in who they want to help lynch.

Like toDay (with no-one lynched on D1) there will only be Morsul voting there and he doesn't know anything more than we do - so we'll consider his vote as his suggestion, with the already statistical probability that he is more likely an innocent one, who could be as far off as anyone of us could be.

I'd say D3 is the most problematic and we should take anything coming from there with a pinch of salt - but yet most probably it would be an assessment of some fellow-villagers.

After that the dead should have settled their game with five or more people in and the goodies should have the upper hand (even if that is in no way a safe bet) - and the more Days go by, the clearer view they will have of the situation and the more we should listen to them in regards to whom they try to get lynched with their vote.

This kind of attitude wouldn't lessen the fun of people playing in the Dead thread neither lessen the need of the Living to consider thoroughly what to do with the suggestions the Dead are making.

And really: if the EW decides then to try and crowd the Dead thread, she'll soon fall short of baddies to use (she's only allowed 4 in total and only 3 at a time) and then quite inevitably lose by numbers here in the Living thread as well...

EDIT: Managed to X with at least Lommmy & Eönwe

[Nogrod]

Okay, decided to clarify my point in another short post as I truly realized the point with all (most?) of it's ramifications myself just thinking about it again.

The problem in the Dead thread is that they only know approximately half of the people. With two people entering there (on average) per one D/N -cycle and them being able to check only one in the same time-frame, there's going to be some confusion at least in the beginning (they'll know only half for sure). But like I said, the good side should eventually come to grips with that.

Thus we shouldn't take anything they say as a fact or a strict rule (X is innocent, Y is a wolf) even if we had very smart systems to make that kind of questions to them. But we should increasingly trust their evaluation of the situation as a more informed fellow-villager's (party-guest's) advice.

And like I said, the EW wouldn't want to throw all her gang into the Dead thread as then it would be a game over immediately when the Duel takes place. She needs numbers in the Living thread to make the game continue...


*Ok. back now*


PS. Has anyone or is anyone going to make a look at the voting yesterDay? With the assumption that here was a wolf there already on D1 (most probable I'd say) and how fishy the voting looked there just could be a chance there was some foul play involved - at least chance enough to merit a check. I'll look at it soon - unless someone is doing it already right now.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like toDay (with no-one lynched on D1) there will only be Morsul voting there and he doesn't know anything more than we do - so we'll consider his vote as his suggestion, with the already statistical probability that he is more likely an innocent one, who could be as far off as anyone of us could be.

Morsul doesn't get to vote toDay.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

After there are TWO residents of the Dead Thread, every DAY the dead get to vote on giving one of the living an extra vote.

edit: x-ed with Zil

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In theory, maybe the EW didn't create a wolf N1. So, D1 there was no wolf and the EW was just trying to get a lynch/small chance to expose the GW/gifted. What would be the advantage to create a wolf N1, other than create a small chance of possibly losing the wolf in a lucky D1 lynch? If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

Following on from my last post, this actually seems like what a suicidal wolf would say to try to throw us off the scent. Since there is one spare/disposable wolf, getting one into the Dead Thread on Day 1 could definitely derail it for a while, as I mentioned in this post (quoting it here for ease and because I can't be bothered to write it out again):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

If we lynch someone now, we have the following situation:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 1 in DT
D2: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N3: 3 in DT (1/3 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 5 in DT (3/5 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.

This means that at each Night, there are 2 unknowns. Of course, if we now agree to a certain rule (e.g. always vote for the unknown that's spent the longest time in the DT), then it could be easier, but there's always the chance of a wasted Night vote early on with 2 unknown wolves overpowering the general vote, and there's also a risk of wolves messing stuff up in moments where people would be tempted to break this rule, e.g. when a Visitor is there.

If we didn't lynch someone today, we'd have:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 0 in DT
D2: 1 in DT
N3: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 3 in DT (3/3 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.

Of course, this is super hypothetical and I can imagine a few situations where it would break down (e.g. Ranger save, Wizards' duel, etc.), but just thought I'd put it out there.

Of course, in this case, it would be beneficial to get a wolf into the Dead Thread immediately, as their strength in that thread would wane as soon as it gets populated by innocents following any kind of protocol (this actually brings to mind a super-crazy strategy, but I think I'll save that for another post).

So given that the EW does have a disposable wolf (that could actually be useful to them lynched on D1), I can't see why they wouldn't pick one on N1 for that reason alone. I believe we still haven't found out from Kuru whether or not the EW can make their first wolf and pick a kill on the same Night, but even they can, there is a greater risk on N2 of the EW picking an unwolfable person (the GW and their pickee) and therefore not being able to make a kill - on N1, there is a 2/16 = 1/8 chance of hitting an unwolfable, while by N2 this could potentially be raised to 3/15 = 1/5.

edit: x-ed since my last post.