Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

[Morsul the Dark]

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Every day will be day one with a lot of information from the previous day being suspect at best. In my opinion in this type of game no lynch for the sake of information gathering isn't the most helpful strategy. And as Boro said we're straight out of the gate saying do nothing...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all. Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

That's pretty much what I was getting at. Like I said, only a 1/16 chance of making a dent in the wolves. Not an ideal scenario.But not voting still chafes.
Did we ever clarify if the Wizard and the newly-created wolf have communicated? I would still lean toward the negative.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Knowing that each Night might (or might not) have given us a new wolf to deal with really will make it tough.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

That is also a reasonable point.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

Well I guess the Mod could clarify that for us, if it's relevant? Although also with what you said, unless the Wolves are doing some super-complicated scheme, even in normal village there isn't much pre-plotting on first Night.

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

Well, the Nightly kill, at least toNight, may be as much of a crapshoot for the baddies as the lynch would be toDay.

Ordinarily, they'd be mainly looking for the Seer. But in this situation the Good Wizard has that capacity. Is there anything in the Rules about what happens if the kill-choice happens to be the Good Wizard? He can only be taken out by the Evil Wizard, but how would an aborted kill on the Good Wizard look to the wolves? Could they figure his identity that way?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

-and-

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Dead Thread Vote Empowerment doesn't impact the Victory Tally.

The Victory Tally is compiled at the beginning of each phase. If the evil side equals the number of remaining goodies then evil wins at that moment. The Dead Thread Vote Empowerment is something that happens within a phase that could impact the outcome of a vote for a lynching candidate.

EDIT: And I suppose I should further clarify that victory is determined in the Living Thread.

[Boromir88]

No one throws a party like a party at Kuru's...I'll give the dwarf credit for that. There's quite a collection of folks I've lost touch with over the last couple years and it's just nice to have us back together...even in these unfortunate circumstances. This is not a nice place to meet.

The good thing about these dueling wizards game is you can even stay involved and participate after death. Sometimes it's rough to decide the first one to go, because you want to give everyone a chance to participate and play...but someone's got to go first. At least now no matter who or when you die, everyone can still influence and participate beyond the grave.

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

That's what cannon fodder is for.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so what do we have?

Morsul the Dark - Posted first, therefore obviously evil.
Inziladun - Waited for Morsul to post first to be less obvious, therefore obviously evil.
Loslote - Discusses Evil Wizard tactics, therefore obviously evil.
Boromir88 - Mostly in-character, therefore obviously evil.
Brinniel - See Lottie.
Nerwen - Clarifies the rules in her first post, therefore obviously evil.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Too helpful and involved in the discussion to be a clueless innocent, therefore obviously evil.
Thinlómien - Tries to use the 'talks about Evil Wizard tactics' argument to cast suspicion on Lottie, therefore obviously evil.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Quiet, therefore obviously evil.

Eönwë - Well, obviously I'm not evil.

Shastanis Althreduin - Hasn't posted yet, so obviously evil.
satansaloser2005 - See Shasta.
Lalaith - See Shasta.
Mithalwen - See Shasta.
Nogrod - See Shasta.
Pervencia Took - See Shasta.


Ok, this is going to be harder than I thought...

edit: x-ed since Kuru's last post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok. So I'm voting.

Now it's time for me to say that weird thing no one likes.

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

[Eönwë]

Ok, onto serious discussion then.

First of all, as most most people seem to agree, I think that a no-lynch Day 1 is a Day wasted. More importantly, it's a free headstart for the wolves (and the EW this game) on kills. Even in the (extremely) unlikely scenario that the EW didn't turn a wolf last Night, that still gives the Dark Side a free pass. So definitely up for a lynching today.

In terms of actual suspicious behaviour, while my last post was intended as a joke, Lommy's comments on Lottie's "[eyebrow-raising]" behaviour could actually be a classic case of the "this seems suspicious but I'm not actually suspecting you" wolf-tactic to sow distrust early on and have evidence of early suspicion to fall back on if necessary. While I do agree that it's best practice not to discuss the evil side's tactics too much, I also think Lottie was right to point out that it's not necessarily the case that a wolf will be added each Night. Though, ok, talking about how this might differ from the GW and what strategies might underpin these differences might be a bit much.

Anyway, seems like a quiet Day so far, so I'm going to reread the thread.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

First of all, as most most people seem to agree, I think that a no-lynch Day 1 is a Day wasted. More importantly, it's a free headstart for the wolves (and the EW this game) on kills. Even in the (extremely) unlikely scenario that the EW didn't turn a wolf last Night, that still gives the Dark Side a free pass. So definitely up for a lynching today.

I don't see it as a free headstart. Quite the opposite, we almost certainly double the number of killed innocents if we lynch today. When we have basically nothing to go on, this is a risk not worth taking. I wouldn't eliminate someone today just to look busy.