Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Morsul the Dark]

I've certainly never played a game with them. But time to pretend to be serious since my posts are mostly banter.

1. My last thought on lynch no lynch. If my math is correct we have a 6.25% of getting bad wizard today. If we forego lynching and lose a friend overnight that leaves 1/15. 6.66666% not going to lie seems to me we could easily have the same exact debate tomorrow which is one reason I'm not a fan of the policy.

2. The dead thread. Even if we make a few mistakes the dead thread could be a little Kharmic power to help us later on.

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

4. I'm going to sleep.

[Boromir88]

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

I WANT TO SEE SOME PUNISHMENT!!!!

hroom, sorry I'm going to be prone to outbursts this time. I'm not good underground, feeling a little denned up.

Who wants to come on an 8th attempt to find an exit? And if failing to find it, maybe I can get the consolation of finding the master of these halls...to throttle him for putting me through his games and schemes again.

So, there's a wizard...but is it a ninja-wizard?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

Not sure, but my guess is that they don't die, and their role as a Wizard is revealed in the narration (though whether they are good or evil remains a mystery).

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. The more wolves, the better the odds one of them dies through lynching, or from the Hunter. I can see the attraction of not creating them all back-to-back. Both Wizards will be hiding from one another early on, I would think, so they're also not going to want to put themselves forward as scrying targets until they'e made their minions.

I doubt the Evil Wizard will create all four wolves back-to-back, but I also don't think they would wait too long to create multiple wolves. While the likelihood of being discovered this soon isn't great, leaving a lone wolf for too long can be risky on the chance the Evil Wizard's identity is discovered within the first few Days/Nights.

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

The first Day is always the trickiest, so it's nice to see some good substance up for discussion already..

[Nerwen]

Good morning all... but what terrible things are happening in this village... canyon... labyrinth... whatever? Terrible, terrible things! Aiiiieeee!!!

*is immediately lynched by Aganzir*

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

Originally Posted by The Rules

There is a Good Wizard and an Evil Wizard. They are the driving force behind much of the game. They are the only two roles that are assigned by me at the start of the game. They cannot be killed by normal means; they must be killed by each other in a Wizard’s Duel (which should be thought of as being pronounced Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel in a ridiculous high pitched voice) in which both of them will perish.

As for the question of how many Gifteds/wolves we have... I concur that it's probably one of each, but the rules would seem to allow for other scenarios, so I am not sure how much point there is in trying to do a statistical analysis of our chances.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

Numerically, it might make sense, if the village can agree on this. On the other hand, Morsul has a point in saying that the odds won't necessarily change very much. But I am all for at least considering that option.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I'm off for a while, but I'll be back later, nice to see some activity here. I mean, for Day 1, impressive...

[Boromir88]

*Boro walks over to the guillotine*

You know there is the lynch in and of itself, which can be useful. But also the very threat of the lynch I find can be useful.

*Boro starts pulling levers and contraptions which set off the decapitating blade...THUD!. He resets and does it a few more times. THUD! THUD!*

Hold people's toes to the fire, as they say. Or I guess, in this case place the head a neck here...

*Boro lies down and places his head and neck in the proper spot. Anyone could come over and send Boro's head flying clean off*

You all picking up what I'm putting down?

*He thinks he hears some gasps of NO! What is the fool doing? And he wonders if there's more than one person saying in their own heads OFF WITH HIS HEAD!*

*Boro steps away from the guillotine*

I just wanted to see how it works. Would it be a good, clean death? It's all academic.

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

[Thinlómien]

*waves excitedly* It's been like a decade since the last game!

I'm at work, so just two quick points for now:

1) I would refrain from academic discussion about what are feasible strategies for the Evil Wizard as long as speculating those strategies doesn't give us any leads on the Evil Wizard's/ the wolves' identity. We don't want to give him tips, do we? This made me raise eyebrows at Lottie- but you'd assume the wolf would have more private channels for strategic suggestions. Also the EW might proclaim her potential strategies publicly to mislead us, but that's really unnecessarily bold for a first post. Anyway, the point stands that of all things to speculate aloud, best EW strategies isn't the smartest choice.

2) I'm - as you can probably guess - against a no-vote. As someone said, a lynch is always more telling than a no-lynch, and as the lynches are our only ammo, we should use them. I agree the odds are not great, but if we wait for better odds we might spend the whole game waiting while being butchered one by one in our sleep.

edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

I believe so. Isn't that the whole point of the Visitors?

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

"Better" as in "more likely".

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I agree, but Lottie was asking specifically if a lynched Wizard would just die in the normal way, and the rules are clear on that point.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

And are the odds necessarily bad? Depends on how you look at it. Will they be "better" or "worse" toMorrow, when we will possibly have another wolf and another gifted? Really not that clear-cut.

Originally Posted by Loslote

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

Are you saying you think the wolf doesn't know the Evil Wizard's identity? Or just that they won't have had time to plot together yet? But then the pack often doesn't do that much plotting on Night One anyway, even in a normal game- they usually don't have enough to go on.

EDIT: x'd since my last post.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?



Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.



Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.