Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Kuruharan]

~~~~~~~Our Tale~~~~~~~

Guests again thronged the Halls of Kuruharan. This time he promised that there would be no surprise movie starring the guests screened at this gala.

His pet, Chrysophylax, having bad memories of the last time Kuruharan hosted a party, declined to put in an appearance.

Yet again, to the delight of one and all, there were more fireworks, bouncy castles, and water balloon fights than at which one could shake a stick. Alas, no dragon rides for a nominal fee as Chrysophylax was off on a dudgeon.

After a feast of gargantuan proportions (I would describe it in excruciating detail, but I'm not George R. R. Martin and I really need to get on with the writing of our tale), the revelers retired for the NIGHT, secure in the knowledge that nothing like last time could possibly happen again…could it? I mean, other than some of the food tasting a little odd, there surely couldn't be anything to worry about...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

General Rules:

There will be no multi-lynches on the Living Thread or multi-vote granting from the Dead Thread. Vote ties in the Living Thread will result in no lynch and vote ties in the Dead Thread will result in no bonus vote being granted that DAY.

Voting should be done as follows: ++Kuruharan. Failure to vote three DAYS in a row will result in murder and sending the player to the Dead Thread. Participation in the Dead Thread is optional as you are already dead and I won’t kill you again.

Voting is non-retractable.

Dead Thread:

After there are TWO residents of the Dead Thread, every DAY the dead get to vote on giving one of the living an extra vote. The dead are subject to the same deadline as the living. The living will not know who among them will get an extra vote until it is revealed in the closing narration of the DAY.

The Dead Empowerment vote is a simple (+1) to the vote of the empowered individual.

For example, let’s suppose that Nilpaurion Felagund has voted for himself to be lynched that day. The residents of the Dead Thread think this is utterly hilarious and vote to empower him. Nilp’s nilping of himself has now gone from a single vote for Nilp to two votes for Nilp.

Since in the anteroom of the afterlife it is hard to hide one’s true nature from one’s fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are TWO residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. The voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.

Please Note: The threshold for the Dead Thread voting has been reduced to two since the Dead Thread will (presumably) not be filling up super-fast like the last Dead Thread game and I wanted to give the dead something to do sooner in the game. Yes, the first two residents of the Dead Thread will probably reflexively vote for each other for the role reveal…but then again, maybe they won’t.

The living may not look in the Dead Thread. The dead may continue to read the Living Thread but may no longer post there or interact with the Living in any way except through the mechanism of the Dead Thread Bonus Vote. The dead can read the whole of the Dead Thread, not just what happens after one dies. For those that resurrect, it is permitted for them to read and participate in the Dead Thread until the time that I post the narration announcing their return to the Living Thread. After that post, the resurrected player may no longer read any further in the Dead Thread until such time as they return to it. For those who resurrect, they may only paraphrase but NOT directly quote or cite posts in the Dead Thread. However, the dead may quote and cite posts from the Living Thread.

Please note: It is NOT ALLOWED for a Living Player to click on the post count link of the Dead Thread to check and see how many times Dead Thread player have posted. Obviously you will be able to see how many posts there are in total and who the last poster is, but that is all that is allowed. Do not check who has posted how many times, do not cite who has posted how many times, do not base arguments on it. You are the Living and they are the Dead and you don’t know what they are up to…and quite possibly neither do they.

Living Thread:

This is going to be rather different than last time.

First off, there are no hidden roles in this game and there is only a single wolfpack.

The Next Party (also known as the Village in normal parlance…)

Ordos – ordinary players with no special powers. They will stay in the Dead Thread after death.

Hunter – The Hunter may send me one name every DAY and NIGHT of somebody they would like to kill if they themselves are killed during that specific time period. Once they have sent me a pick they cannot change it until the next time period. They are not required to send me their pick at any particular time of the DAY or NIGHT, just as long as it is before I post the closing/opening narration. They may pick the same person over and over again or they may pick a different person each time as they wish. If they are killed they remain in the Dead Thread.

Ranger – The Ranger can protect players from being killed or turned during the NIGHT phase. The Ranger can self-protect and protect the same person multiple times in a row. The Ranger can deflect probes/attacks on the person of the Good Wizard. So let's say the Evil Wizard and Wolves try to kill the Good Wizard but the Ranger is protecting the Good Wizard. The Evil Wizard will receive the same message they would in any other circumstances of a Ranger save. However, unlike previous Dead Thread games, the Ranger does not have the power to resurrect. If the Ranger is killed they cannot return from the Dead Thread. The Ranger does not stop the Visitor who Leaves from leaving. The Ranger could, through some gargantuan screw up prevent the Visitor who Dies from dying…I imagine the Good Wizard will be very angry at that point.
I made the changes to the sequential protection of the same person rule and granted the ability to protect an ordo from being turned into a wolf because taking away the resurrection ability made the role seem very lackluster.

Good Wizard – The Good Wizard will be discussed in the Wizard section.

Visitor – The Visitor will be discussed in the Visitor section.

The Wolves

There is a single wolf pack. It is a standard wolf pack in almost all respects except for how it is generated. The maximum number of wolves is three.

The Wizards

There is a Good Wizard and an Evil Wizard. They are the driving force behind much of the game. They are the only two roles that are assigned by me at the start of the game. They cannot be killed by normal means; they must be killed by each other in a Wizard’s Duel (which should be thought of as being pronounced Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel in a ridiculous high pitched voice) in which both of them will perish. The specific mechanics of the Wizard’s Duel are as follows:

First, the challenging wizard must possess confirmed information (as in, I the Mod know that they know) as to the identity of their opponent. That way the phantom could not just spam challenge everyone in the thread and then claim that he has successfully taken out the opposing wizard.

Second, the challenge must happen during the DAY and cannot happen before DAY THREE.

Third, the challenge MUST be bolded in red and state the name of the player you are challenging to a Wizard’s Duel.

For example, the Evil Wizard could say Kuruharan, I challenge you to a Wizard’s Duel!!!.

At that point the Evil Wizard will feel quite sheepish because I’m not playing the game and they just revealed themselves to the Good Wizard.

However, placing the correct name in the challenge will trigger the challenge.

Once a challenge has been issued by either Wizard, neither the Good Wizard nor Evil Wizard may post in the Living Thread again! They both immediately go to the Dead Thread…where they will (hopefully) continue making life for the inmates there as amusing as possible.

I will do my best to post the Duel Narrative as quickly as possible. Cooperation from the Wizards in this regard by notifying me the NIGHT before they intend to challenge would be appreciated.

If the Good Wizard and Evil Wizard target the same person, nothing happens.

The Good Wizard – The Good Wizard creates the Hunter, the Ranger and the two Visitors. The picks do not have to be made sequentially but may be made in any order the Good Wizard chooses. On NIGHTS when a Gifted is not created the Good Wizard may scry the role of a player. The Good Wizard is informed of the current role of the target exactly.

If the Good Wizard picks a wolf for converting into a Gifted that pick is deterred but the Good Wizard keeps that pick for future use; the pick is not lost. There is one exception to this, but that will be discussed in the Visitor section.

If the Good Wizard attempts any sort of action (scrying, Gifting, etc.) on the Evil Wizard, the Good Wizard is informed of the identity of the Evil Wizard. This opens the door for the Good Wizard to challenge the Evil Wizard.

The Good Wizard is never in direct communication with the Gifteds, nor are the Gifteds ever in communication with each other. The Good Wizard may send messages via the Mod to the Gifteds. The Good Wizard may not share their own identity or the identity of the other Gifteds. If they wanted me to do that I would just not include that part of the message. This communication is RPed as dreams that occur during the NIGHT phase. If a Gifted is killed the Good Wizard cannot replace them.

The Good Wizard may not PM with either Visitor either in the Living Thread or the Dead Thread.

The Good Wizard cannot communicate across the barrier of death. However, inside the Dead Thread the Good Wizard may PM freely with the Hunter and the Ranger if they are in the Dead Thread. The Good Wizard also can no longer scry when in the Dead Thread.

The Evil Wizard – The Evil Wizard may pick up to 4 wolves in total during the NIGHTly phases. The Evil Wizard is under no obligation to expend all wolf picks on sequential NIGHTS but may use NIGHTS for scrying even if they have wolf picks still in reserve. However, there may be no more than three wolves active in the Living Thread at any one time.

On NIGHTS when a wolf is not created the Evil Wizard may scry the role of a target in quest of finding the Good Wizard. That is the only information the Evil Wizard will learn. If the Evil Wizard scrys a Gifted the Gifted role is not revealed to the Evil Wizard.

If the Evil Wizard scrys or attempts to convert the Good Wizard, the Evil Wizard is informed of the identity of the Good Wizard. This opens the door for the Evil Wizard to challenge the Good Wizard.

If the Evil Wizard picks a Gifted for converting into a wolf that pick is deterred but the Evil Wizard still keeps that pick for future use. It is not lost.

Generally speaking, the Evil Wizard is the only one of the wolves from whom I will accept a kill pick. There might be a situation where the Evil Wizard might designate somebody as a spokeswolf to me but we will hash that out ourselves if it arises.

The Evil Wizard may make kills solo once they have created a wolf (in a scenario where the Evil Wizard has lost all their wolves). This rule applies even if the Evil Wizard has wolf picks in reserve that have not been used yet but is for some reason on his/her own.

The Evil Wizard and wolves are able to PM each other during the NIGHT phase. Their identities are not a secret from each other and there are no re-conversions from one side to another in this game. If a wolf is killed in the game and the Evil Wizard has expended all four picks in creating wolves, no further wolves may be created.

The Evil Wizard cannot communicate with the wolves across the barrier of death, but may continue PMing the other wolves at any time if they are both in the Dead Thread.

The Visitors

There are two Visitors: The Visitor who Leaves and the Visitor who Dies. Their winning conditions are ambiguous.

The Visitor roles are the only ones who may resurrect to the Living Thread from the Dead Thread.

Both Visitors are created by the Good Wizard. Once the Visitor enters the Dead Thread they will remain there for a DAY/NIGHT cycle. They will then return to the Living Thread at the next available DAY cycle, assuming the game is still ongoing. This is not a Lover role. The Visitors are guaranteed to return if the game continues.

When the Visitors return they are now classified as Ghosts. Ghosts do not count as part of the final tally for victory condition purposes. The Visitors remain in the Living Thread and can vote for one DAY but then they return to the Dead Thread permanently.

The Visitor who Leaves – The Visitor who Leaves is sent by the Good Wizard IMMEDIATELY to the Dead Thread. Obviously they will discover their new role pretty quickly.

The Visitor who Dies – The Visitor who Dies remains in the Living Thread until death comes by some other means. They are NOT informed of their change in role until the narration announcing their return from the Dead Thread to the Living Thread.

There is nothing preventing the Good Wizard from inadvertently picking wolves as either Visitor. If this happens this does not change the alignment of the wolf. That wolf is still a baddie and victory and defeat for that player is still determined on that basis.

Neither Wizard may be selected as a Visitor. Neither may either the Hunter or the Ranger be selected as a Visitor.

Order of NIGHTly Activities:

ALL actions possible to be taken during a NIGHT are assumed to have happened. This is important to understand because, for example, the Good Wizard picks a player as the Visitor who Leaves and the Wolves kill that Visitor that same NIGHT that player is still the Visitor who Leaves and would still return to the Living Thread even though the narration will initially imply a wolf kill.

---------------------------------------------

NIGHT 1 has now begun! Those of you who have NIGHTly roles may now fulfill them. If you have not been notified that you have a NIGHTly role toNIGHT then you are an Ordo.

Players
Nerwen
Inziladun
Loslote
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Morsul the Dark
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Eönwë
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
Brinniel

This thread will be open for posting at 8 PM US Eastern July 10...or more accurately when I get the Opening Narration for DAY 1 posted, which will be at approximately that time.

The Ordos sleep now.

EDIT: Added Ranger rule clarification.

[Kuruharan]

~~~~~Our Tale~~~~~

The guests awoke, groggy in the early morning light. Wait…early morning light? The guests realized simultaneously that they were outside and had been sleeping on the ground.

What had happened? Why were they not in the main hall of Kuruharan’s Halls?

They looked around to find themselves on the floor of a narrow canyon. All around them were mine shafts and chambers carved into the canyon walls.

After exploring the area, the guests discovered there were exactly enough chambers for each of them and each one of the chambers had one of their names posted on the outside.

In the middle of the canyon, they discovered that same old guillotine from the last time Kuru hosted a party. Beside the guillotine was a sign that read:

“At least I can be grateful that this time there was only one of you who came to my home with murder in your heart! The rest of you will have to find out who it is and dispatch them before I let you back in my house. Be warned, I suspect this foul varlet can convert more of you to their cause!

You will note that I am not letting you stay in my house this time and make a mess of things that I have to clean up later. You’ll manage just fine out here.”

“We won’t stand for this,” shouted several of the bolder guests. They agreed it among themselves that each would set out in a separate direction and find their own ways out.

Half an hour later they were all standing in a circle facing each other around the guillotine. The canyon had turned out to be a labyrinth with no way out.

“If at first you don’t succeed,” the guests said to each other. They set off again, this time in pairs.

When they had reached, “If at seventh you don’t succeed,” even the doughtiest among them began to feel a bit discouraged.

“This is ridiculous,” one said, “we may be stuck here, but there is no reason for us to start killing each other just to find out who allegedly might have come here to kill us! There’s no proof of any of this!”





But what if Kuru was right? What if somebody had come to the party intending to murder them all?












What if…one of them had already joined them..?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It is now DAY 1. You may all post.

The Living
Nerwen
Inziladun
Loslote
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Morsul the Dark
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Eönwë
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
Brinniel

[Morsul the Dark]

Obligatory first post list.

Wolves:
Nerwen
Inziladun
Loslote
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Eönwë
Nogrod
Pervencia Took
Brinniel

Not Wolves
Morsul


There I did it. Did I won?

[Inziladun]

Well, I have no memory whatever of the prior event Kuru alluded to, but I'm doubtful that knowledge would be much use now.

So. We're looking at a Good Wizard, an Evil Wizard, and, I would think likely, one Wolf and a Gifted.

So, which of you did it?

[Loslote]

This is a much more interesting Day One than most, I think, with a lot of variables to take into consideration.

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

3. That being said, I have the feeling the Good Wizard will populate the Gifteds faster than the Evil Wizard will populate the wolves. Unless the Evil Wizard themself is in danger, I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck with just one wolf for a few Nights, to give themselves a chance to get the lay of the land before making their other two choices. Whereas one wolf is just as good as three, if the Evil Wizard can just make another when the first dies, the Gifteds are individually valuable, so I think the Good Wizard is a more motivated seller, so to speak. In which case, our odds of hitting a wolf might not increase after Day One, whereas our odds of hitting a Gifted might.

I haven't played a Dueling Wizards game before, so I've probably missed several crucial implications, but I'm excited to see how this game plays out.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.


I haven't played a Dueling Wizards game before, so I've probably missed several crucial implications, but I'm excited to see how this game plays out.

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

I wouldn't think the wolf and the Wizard can have been in contact yet. The next Day though the wolf will know the Evil Wizard.

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

Indeed. It would be a seriously lucky break to hit the Evil Wizard or the wolf now.
We have one good Seer here, the Good Wizard, but they're presumably at least going to create the Ranger before scrying.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have the feeling the Good Wizard will populate the Gifteds faster than the Evil Wizard will populate the wolves. Unless the Evil Wizard themself is in danger, I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck with just one wolf for a few Nights, to give themselves a chance to get the lay of the land before making their other two choices. Whereas one wolf is just as good as three, if the Evil Wizard can just make another when the first dies, the Gifteds are individually valuable, so I think the Good Wizard is a more motivated seller, so to speak. In which case, our odds of hitting a wolf might not increase after Day One, whereas our odds of hitting a Gifted might.

Hmm. The more wolves, the better the odds one of them dies through lynching, or from the Hunter. I can see the attraction of not creating them all back-to-back. Both Wizards will be hiding from one another early on, I would think, so they're also not going to want to put themselves forward as scrying targets until they'e made their minions.

x/d with Morsul and Lottie

[Morsul the Dark]

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

[Morsul the Dark]

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

x/d with Morsul again

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

I meant, a 2/16 chance of hitting either Wizard or his minion. That's what being up for 17 hours does.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

Actually, the Wizards predate the both of us.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've certainly never played a game with them. But time to pretend to be serious since my posts are mostly banter.

1. My last thought on lynch no lynch. If my math is correct we have a 6.25% of getting bad wizard today. If we forego lynching and lose a friend overnight that leaves 1/15. 6.66666% not going to lie seems to me we could easily have the same exact debate tomorrow which is one reason I'm not a fan of the policy.

2. The dead thread. Even if we make a few mistakes the dead thread could be a little Kharmic power to help us later on.

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

4. I'm going to sleep.

[Boromir88]

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

I WANT TO SEE SOME PUNISHMENT!!!!

hroom, sorry I'm going to be prone to outbursts this time. I'm not good underground, feeling a little denned up.

Who wants to come on an 8th attempt to find an exit? And if failing to find it, maybe I can get the consolation of finding the master of these halls...to throttle him for putting me through his games and schemes again.

So, there's a wizard...but is it a ninja-wizard?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

Not sure, but my guess is that they don't die, and their role as a Wizard is revealed in the narration (though whether they are good or evil remains a mystery).

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. The more wolves, the better the odds one of them dies through lynching, or from the Hunter. I can see the attraction of not creating them all back-to-back. Both Wizards will be hiding from one another early on, I would think, so they're also not going to want to put themselves forward as scrying targets until they'e made their minions.

I doubt the Evil Wizard will create all four wolves back-to-back, but I also don't think they would wait too long to create multiple wolves. While the likelihood of being discovered this soon isn't great, leaving a lone wolf for too long can be risky on the chance the Evil Wizard's identity is discovered within the first few Days/Nights.

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

The first Day is always the trickiest, so it's nice to see some good substance up for discussion already..

[Nerwen]

Good morning all... but what terrible things are happening in this village... canyon... labyrinth... whatever? Terrible, terrible things! Aiiiieeee!!!

*is immediately lynched by Aganzir*

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

Originally Posted by The Rules

There is a Good Wizard and an Evil Wizard. They are the driving force behind much of the game. They are the only two roles that are assigned by me at the start of the game. They cannot be killed by normal means; they must be killed by each other in a Wizard’s Duel (which should be thought of as being pronounced Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel in a ridiculous high pitched voice) in which both of them will perish.

As for the question of how many Gifteds/wolves we have... I concur that it's probably one of each, but the rules would seem to allow for other scenarios, so I am not sure how much point there is in trying to do a statistical analysis of our chances.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

Numerically, it might make sense, if the village can agree on this. On the other hand, Morsul has a point in saying that the odds won't necessarily change very much. But I am all for at least considering that option.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I'm off for a while, but I'll be back later, nice to see some activity here. I mean, for Day 1, impressive...

[Boromir88]

*Boro walks over to the guillotine*

You know there is the lynch in and of itself, which can be useful. But also the very threat of the lynch I find can be useful.

*Boro starts pulling levers and contraptions which set off the decapitating blade...THUD!. He resets and does it a few more times. THUD! THUD!*

Hold people's toes to the fire, as they say. Or I guess, in this case place the head a neck here...

*Boro lies down and places his head and neck in the proper spot. Anyone could come over and send Boro's head flying clean off*

You all picking up what I'm putting down?

*He thinks he hears some gasps of NO! What is the fool doing? And he wonders if there's more than one person saying in their own heads OFF WITH HIS HEAD!*

*Boro steps away from the guillotine*

I just wanted to see how it works. Would it be a good, clean death? It's all academic.

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

I believe so. Isn't that the whole point of the Visitors?

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

"Better" as in "more likely".

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I agree, but Lottie was asking specifically if a lynched Wizard would just die in the normal way, and the rules are clear on that point.

[Thinlómien]

*waves excitedly* It's been like a decade since the last game!

I'm at work, so just two quick points for now:

1) I would refrain from academic discussion about what are feasible strategies for the Evil Wizard as long as speculating those strategies doesn't give us any leads on the Evil Wizard's/ the wolves' identity. We don't want to give him tips, do we? This made me raise eyebrows at Lottie- but you'd assume the wolf would have more private channels for strategic suggestions. Also the EW might proclaim her potential strategies publicly to mislead us, but that's really unnecessarily bold for a first post. Anyway, the point stands that of all things to speculate aloud, best EW strategies isn't the smartest choice.

2) I'm - as you can probably guess - against a no-vote. As someone said, a lynch is always more telling than a no-lynch, and as the lynches are our only ammo, we should use them. I agree the odds are not great, but if we wait for better odds we might spend the whole game waiting while being butchered one by one in our sleep.

edit: xed with Nerwen

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

And are the odds necessarily bad? Depends on how you look at it. Will they be "better" or "worse" toMorrow, when we will possibly have another wolf and another gifted? Really not that clear-cut.

Originally Posted by Loslote

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

Are you saying you think the wolf doesn't know the Evil Wizard's identity? Or just that they won't have had time to plot together yet? But then the pack often doesn't do that much plotting on Night One anyway, even in a normal game- they usually don't have enough to go on.

EDIT: x'd since my last post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?



Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.



Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

[Morsul the Dark]

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Every day will be day one with a lot of information from the previous day being suspect at best. In my opinion in this type of game no lynch for the sake of information gathering isn't the most helpful strategy. And as Boro said we're straight out of the gate saying do nothing...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all. Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

That's pretty much what I was getting at. Like I said, only a 1/16 chance of making a dent in the wolves. Not an ideal scenario.But not voting still chafes.
Did we ever clarify if the Wizard and the newly-created wolf have communicated? I would still lean toward the negative.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Knowing that each Night might (or might not) have given us a new wolf to deal with really will make it tough.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

That is also a reasonable point.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

Well I guess the Mod could clarify that for us, if it's relevant? Although also with what you said, unless the Wolves are doing some super-complicated scheme, even in normal village there isn't much pre-plotting on first Night.

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

Well, the Nightly kill, at least toNight, may be as much of a crapshoot for the baddies as the lynch would be toDay.

Ordinarily, they'd be mainly looking for the Seer. But in this situation the Good Wizard has that capacity. Is there anything in the Rules about what happens if the kill-choice happens to be the Good Wizard? He can only be taken out by the Evil Wizard, but how would an aborted kill on the Good Wizard look to the wolves? Could they figure his identity that way?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

-and-

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Dead Thread Vote Empowerment doesn't impact the Victory Tally.

The Victory Tally is compiled at the beginning of each phase. If the evil side equals the number of remaining goodies then evil wins at that moment. The Dead Thread Vote Empowerment is something that happens within a phase that could impact the outcome of a vote for a lynching candidate.

EDIT: And I suppose I should further clarify that victory is determined in the Living Thread.

[Boromir88]

No one throws a party like a party at Kuru's...I'll give the dwarf credit for that. There's quite a collection of folks I've lost touch with over the last couple years and it's just nice to have us back together...even in these unfortunate circumstances. This is not a nice place to meet.

The good thing about these dueling wizards game is you can even stay involved and participate after death. Sometimes it's rough to decide the first one to go, because you want to give everyone a chance to participate and play...but someone's got to go first. At least now no matter who or when you die, everyone can still influence and participate beyond the grave.

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

That's what cannon fodder is for.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so what do we have?

Morsul the Dark - Posted first, therefore obviously evil.
Inziladun - Waited for Morsul to post first to be less obvious, therefore obviously evil.
Loslote - Discusses Evil Wizard tactics, therefore obviously evil.
Boromir88 - Mostly in-character, therefore obviously evil.
Brinniel - See Lottie.
Nerwen - Clarifies the rules in her first post, therefore obviously evil.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Too helpful and involved in the discussion to be a clueless innocent, therefore obviously evil.
Thinlómien - Tries to use the 'talks about Evil Wizard tactics' argument to cast suspicion on Lottie, therefore obviously evil.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Quiet, therefore obviously evil.

Eönwë - Well, obviously I'm not evil.

Shastanis Althreduin - Hasn't posted yet, so obviously evil.
satansaloser2005 - See Shasta.
Lalaith - See Shasta.
Mithalwen - See Shasta.
Nogrod - See Shasta.
Pervencia Took - See Shasta.


Ok, this is going to be harder than I thought...

edit: x-ed since Kuru's last post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok. So I'm voting.

Now it's time for me to say that weird thing no one likes.

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

[Eönwë]

Ok, onto serious discussion then.

First of all, as most most people seem to agree, I think that a no-lynch Day 1 is a Day wasted. More importantly, it's a free headstart for the wolves (and the EW this game) on kills. Even in the (extremely) unlikely scenario that the EW didn't turn a wolf last Night, that still gives the Dark Side a free pass. So definitely up for a lynching today.

In terms of actual suspicious behaviour, while my last post was intended as a joke, Lommy's comments on Lottie's "[eyebrow-raising]" behaviour could actually be a classic case of the "this seems suspicious but I'm not actually suspecting you" wolf-tactic to sow distrust early on and have evidence of early suspicion to fall back on if necessary. While I do agree that it's best practice not to discuss the evil side's tactics too much, I also think Lottie was right to point out that it's not necessarily the case that a wolf will be added each Night. Though, ok, talking about how this might differ from the GW and what strategies might underpin these differences might be a bit much.

Anyway, seems like a quiet Day so far, so I'm going to reread the thread.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

[Morsul the Dark]

So... yeah I just reread the whole Wizard doohickey. I'm slightly less confused. But still think having a confirmed identity of the EW would be good. Then there are the visitors... oy I'm so confused.

But I stand by my statements.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

Sensible, this. No help with deciding on a vote, though.