Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Whom do people think the most likely to be Wolf (ev. Wolves, if the two lynched ones were innocent)?

I still think Inzil-Shasta-Boro would be the most likely combination, but it's not definitely the only option.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I would, for that reason, tentatively suggest that it might be possible for us to win with a no lynch toDAY. I will have to run the numbers tomorrow morning (in real time for me) because I'm too tired right now.

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

Originally Posted by Kuru

A couple of ways.

1) It seems to me that Lalaith was implicitly supporting him.

2) There may have only been (and I hope there was) only one other wolf in the game left to support him.

That makes sense to me. Like, I'm not convinced (I still think Lalaith looks fairly innocent), but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

Legate, why did you wait so long to say you had the Black Breath? If you wanted to make me last minute alarmed about you after such an honest-seeming performance, it was exactly that.

Lottie for rep sounds like the sensible way to go. I mean, she's a veteran of the office by now.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

I anticipated you by several hours.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I anticipated you by several hours.

Oh, I actually saw that, but it didn't really help me I'm afraid. So basically we're probably winning and a lynch will only change the situation if all the three wolves are actually alive, only there's a theoretical chance in that case also that we lynch an innocent and they outnumber us toMorrow? Like, a lynch doesn't matter either way unless there's still three of them, in which case we're in dire straits indeed??

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

Originally Posted by Legate

Sorry about that. Well, the main reason was that I was hoping to see reactions to the Night events before announcing it. But overall, there is not very much rational planning behind it - it was, most of all, the wish to make the WWs freak out at least for a moment by making them think that their Nightly attack was prevented by the Bard. Sort of a payback from my part for targeting me. Although, to be absolutely honest, I was 99,9% sure they would target me. Given that Lottie was supposed to die that Night and Kuru was the second logical choice, which made him likely to be protected by the Bard, it was basically clear that they were going to target me.

Well, it still sounded like a wolf posting at 2am then waking up the next morning and being like "hey there's no claim about last Night I could still claim Black Breath yeehaw" - but I admit it's hard to see what you would gain by that, given that most of the village trusts you anyway. It just really rubbed me the wrong way.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

I'm pretty confident that if Boro meant mischief he would not have voted Lottie for Rep. A wolf really couldn't afford that today.

++Lalaith for lynching.

Anybody else interpret her silence toDAY as a confession? Maybe not fair...but there you are.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm pretty confident that if Boro meant mischief he would not have voted Lottie for Rep. A wolf really couldn't afford that today.

Good point - not if there were three of them, then they'd gang up and elect one of their own. If there was only two or one, then I don't see why they wouldn't vote Lottie. But basically that confirms that Boro can't be a member of a pack of three wolves so he's not a lethal threat in any case?

Hmmmmm...

I still maintain he's a likelier wolf than Lalaith, and also because I take after my father I would really rather lynch a possible quiet wolf than a resonably active one if it doesn't make any difference to our odds of winning the game.

But if no one agrees with me I don't know what's the worst we can do with lynching Lalaith toDay - lynching a gifted (but that's the same for Boro I suppose)?

[Lalaith]

Hello everyone. Sorry to rush in just before deadline like this [RL] v bad day at work [/RL]
Well it's excellent news about Lotties miraculous survival but not such good news if the plan is to lynch me - it won't help at all, I assure you.
Given my last minute arrival I've not had time to do much than a skim read of the thread but I would say that Boro stands out as acting really weird yesterDay and is still acting pretty weird toDay. He would be the one I would vote for if I were rep.
Obviously ++ Lottie and ++Boro to lynch.

[Kuruharan]

The thing that I was most worried about toDAY of the wolves coming in and orchestrating a tie to prevent a potentially necessary lynch in case there are two wolves left can't happen now!

*throws confetti*

[Kuruharan]

So...Lottie you around?

[Kuruharan]

The Bard's Theme.

Anyway, time for a funny story.

YesterDAY, when I said this...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

As outstandingly well (and with a great deal of intestinal fortitude as well) as Legate has played, if some of my theories are correct, there just might be somebody here who has played even better than he has.

And I definitely don't mean me.

Of course, if my theories are wrong...then holy cow, Legate would have ascended to phantomic and Nerwenian levels of Werewolf Awesomehood...as if he wasn't there already.

I was not, in fact, talking about the discarded possibility of Legate being a wolf. I was talking about if he was the Herbalist!

You, sir, are up there with the very top Werewolfers for playing such a bold and up front game while all the while being so vital to the ultimate well-being of the Ward.

I was actually quite worried on NIGHT TWO that you were the Herbalist, but Lottie's subsequent behavior convinced me...up until the closing narration that she was.

So if that was a ploy on Lottie's part, a tip o' the hat to her (one among many the Ward owes her) for running that one.

Sorry about not protecting you on NIGHT FIVE. I actually could have, and I thought long and hard about what to do that NIGHT. But the wolves had thrown me for a loop on NIGHT TWO by striking Nerwen, a NIGHT that I did protect you. I was out of sync with them for the whole rest of the game from that point, usually unable to protect the person that I most thought needed protection.

I wanted to have a protect of you in the bank for NIGHT SIX and the wolves had also signaled a willingness to circle back and re-strike at previous targets and I thought it a worthwhile gamble that they might strike at me again and I didn't want to waste a protect on you when I thought it likely that I'd be the target and then be unable to protect on NIGHT SIX.

A wrong guess, as it turned out.

However, in a way it worked out well because it decisively eliminated you from consideration as a potential wolf in DAY FIVE's conversations (not that I thought that was at all likely by that stage).

I feel kind of bad for Lalaith, though. For whatever reason, most of the games that I've read that she has played in she has always been a wolf. In this game I could just sense it from her very first post. I don't know if that means that my reading sample is skewed or if she just has an inordinate number of wolf-side games under her belt.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think, with hindsight, that the rules favoured the village.

That may be true to some extent. However, the wolves were actually pretty close to winning on a number of fronts, even up to the last DAY, there were winning scenarios for them.

Of course, McCaber's absence really helped balance it out in a way...so maybe nine players is the right number for the format rather than ten..?

EDIT: Also, it is Sally's death-day! Happy death day!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So basically we're probably winning and a lynch will only change the situation if all the three wolves are actually alive, only there's a theoretical chance in that case also that we lynch an innocent and they outnumber us toMorrow? Like, a lynch doesn't matter either way unless there's still three of them, in which case we're in dire straits indeed??

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

I say, let's lynch somebody. I am despairing beyond imagination and therefore probably seeing everything painted in the blackest way possible, but I am still hoping that we somehow have chance of lynching one Wolf and making the difference by that. I said that all already in my posts above... thinking there were too few youtube links on this thread. There's no way I'm gonna let go.

It really all comes down to what Zil (and McCaber) and Shasta were. Especially if I misjudged Shasta and he was not a Wolf - if it is so and you are reading this, Shasta, I am truly, deeply sorry.

In any case, because the DL is fairly close, I guess now no reason to prolong this---

++Loslote for Rep

And who for the lynch then? I said above, I am not sure if Boro is the right choice. Lalaith would be just as good for me. But I will let the village decide. For once.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate, why did you wait so long to say you had the Black Breath? If you wanted to make me last minute alarmed about you after such an honest-seeming performance, it was exactly that.

Sorry about that. Well, the main reason was that I was hoping to see reactions to the Night events before announcing it. But overall, there is not very much rational planning behind it - it was, most of all, the wish to make the WWs freak out at least for a moment by making them think that their Nightly attack was prevented by the Bard. Sort of a payback from my part for targeting me. Although, to be absolutely honest, I was 99,9% sure they would target me. Given that Lottie was supposed to die that Night and Kuru was the second logical choice, which made him likely to be protected by the Bard, it was basically clear that they were going to target me.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

This, and her unnecessary delay in voting for rep are what's made me feel bad about her.

We are well beyond the point where feeling "iffy" about me is at all acceptable in the context of this game and we have proof after proof of that.