Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

For the sake of completion, since I said I will mention every single possibility, I think we can't very well steer away from the track of not lynching Lottie or Kuru; that path has been closed to us long time ago. At the latest moment probably sometime yesterDay. It's a game where nobody knows anything, and you just have to close your eyes and make a choice. We did.

The terror I engender is profound.

But seriously, for everyone's benefit, set your minds at rest about Lottie and myself. From a game mechanic standpoint she and I cannot be guilty. Both she and I have claimed the Black Breath (her twice). Nobody actually counter-claimed any DAY we've been hit. We've survived each time and most critically of all, nobody unexpectedly died during the NIGHTS.

Lottie and I cannot be guilty.

Moving on to other matters, if my numbers above are correct, even if Legate succumbs to the Black Breath during the NIGHT () we will still win with an innocent to spare if there are anything fewer than three wolves left...and that is assuming no lynch.

The only way we are in trouble at this point is if there *are* three wolves left, and at this point that pack would have to be Boro, Lommy, and Lalaith.

While that is possible (but unlikely in my estimation) all we have to do is kill one of them, which I'm pretty sure we will do.

So, Legate...hurry up and vote Lottie as Rep.

Xed with Boro - I would have answered his question in time to help him if only I'd posted sooner.

[Kuruharan]

Also, take note that with his vote Boro just pretty much confirmed that at least one wolf is down.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The only way we are in trouble at this point is if there *are* three wolves left, and at this point that pack would have to be Boro, Lommy, and Lalaith.

While that is possible (but unlikely in my estimation) all we have to do is kill one of them, which I'm pretty sure we will do.

I agree with your analysis, and I think we're in great shape going into the last Morning. Our last task to lynch Lalaith, and I think we'll have done it. Also,

++Legate for MVP

for his no-lynch plan the first two Days, which I really think played a huge part in getting us here.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Legate for MVP

As outstandingly well (and with a great deal of intestinal fortitude as well) as Legate has played, if some of my theories are correct, there just might be somebody here who has played even better than he has.

And I definitely don't mean me.

Of course, if my theories are wrong...then holy cow, Legate would have ascended to phantomic and Nerwenian levels of Werewolf Awesomehood...as if he wasn't there already.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with your analysis, and I think we're in great shape going into the last Morning. Our last task to lynch Lalaith, and I think we'll have done it. Also,

++Legate for MVP

for his no-lynch plan the first two Days, which I really think played a huge part in getting us here.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

As outstandingly well (and with a great deal of intestinal fortitude as well) as Legate has played, if some of my theories are correct, there just might be somebody here who has played even better than he has.

And I definitely don't mean me.

Of course, if my theories are wrong...then holy cow, Legate would have ascended to phantomic and Nerwenian levels of Werewolf Awesomehood...as if he wasn't there already.

Alas, I am not a Wolf, because I agree, it would have been awesome. I would have felt extremely proud and even with the utmost humility I would still be undeniably entitled to do so. But also you have no idea how much I wish you were Wolves right now. I mean, of course I don't want you to be Wolves, but I think I don't deserve half the praise. I think I can say already now (but we can talk about it more after the game) that I feel like I took over lots of the crucial points of the game (like the no-lynch plan in the beginning and so on) and whether it was for good or bad, I am responsible for where it headed; but I am not sure if it wasn't a bit "despotic" from me. In this game, we are all fumbling in the dark more so than usual, so it is difficult to make learned decisions. But we shall see once this game ends what ends did everything serve.

I am very, very, very curious, once this game ends, to learn everybody's roles. Shasta's. Zil's. (McCaber's...)

For now, I think now voting Lottie as rep is indeed the only logical way to go, because after Boro's vote, it's the way to get a decent majority.

But I'll be around and try to think about the lynch-candidates a bit and see if anybody else still posts. (Lommy might only later, from what I know in RL about her schedule, but that's a detail.)

[Kuruharan]

It has gone all quiet.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

It has gone all quiet.

I'm here finally! Reading and commenting soon.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Whom do people think the most likely to be Wolf (ev. Wolves, if the two lynched ones were innocent)?

I still think Inzil-Shasta-Boro would be the most likely combination, but it's not definitely the only option.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I would, for that reason, tentatively suggest that it might be possible for us to win with a no lynch toDAY. I will have to run the numbers tomorrow morning (in real time for me) because I'm too tired right now.

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

Originally Posted by Kuru

A couple of ways.

1) It seems to me that Lalaith was implicitly supporting him.

2) There may have only been (and I hope there was) only one other wolf in the game left to support him.

That makes sense to me. Like, I'm not convinced (I still think Lalaith looks fairly innocent), but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

Legate, why did you wait so long to say you had the Black Breath? If you wanted to make me last minute alarmed about you after such an honest-seeming performance, it was exactly that.

Lottie for rep sounds like the sensible way to go. I mean, she's a veteran of the office by now.