Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Thinlómien]

So I think we can further confirm Lottie and Kuru are innocent. That makes me feel a teeny bit less worried about the option of Legate being a wolf after all, because these two have been his most adamant supporters.

Boro is kinda... ominous?

Originally Posted by Kuru

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Please, let's not start the not lynching business again. Until the game is over we won't know if it was a smart move or not, but I'm 99% sure it's not a smart move now, and it's very frustrating in any case.

Shasta's interesting? His outside-the-box thinking does make him look better in my eyes, even though I feel like Inzil-Shasta would have been a very likely wolf combo.

General thoughts at this point? I still think Legate the Benevolent Mastermind and Lalaith the Clueless (sorry dears) feel innocent, but I'm not leaving them out of my calculations. Shasta? Not so sure, especially if Inzil was indeed a wolf. Boro? Has hardly been here but the little we have seen isn't particularly convincing. I kinda agree with Kuru that lynching Boro would be a huge shot in the dark, but I don't like the idea of an inactive Borowolf being given a pass just because of his inactivity either. If Boro and Shasta are packmates, Shasta's recent attack on Boro could be a wolf-on-wolf distancing attempt. Note he puts Kuru first in his suspicions.

Yeah, so kinda leaning towards Inzil-Shasta-Boro at the moment, even though there's a lot of unsure in that. Of course the obvious solution is often wrong, so I definitely hope it's not something like Legate-Lalaith-Kuru.

I definitely want to hear more from Boro, (and also Lalaith). Like, if Boro doesn't post more I might advocate lynching him just because he's a liability.....


edit: xed with Kuru's #236 and onwards