Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

Hey, good perception there! Because that crossed my mind as well, that the WWs might forgo a kill, but now this actually is out of question. And I really, really find it hard that they would bet on killing McCaber. That's too much overcombination to begin with, and too risky if he turned up. Or even a risk if modfires actually are written into the narration as normal deaths, or as something else.

Hmm. I flip-flopped a couple of times while reading the previous stuff, but I am more inclined to trust Nerwen for the time being. She is being somewhat defensive, to be sure, but overall - after considering what Lottie just pointed out - I would think it more likely that Nerwen's utterly dismayed state is genuine.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

Not sending a name would be a risky strategy worth trying. But since that didn't happen... sending Cab's name would be much riskier strategy and not worth trying, in my opinion. Of course depends on the Wolves, but really - if they wanted to do that, the logical thing would be not to send a name and then pretend to be sick, not to send a name and hope the person is modfired.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

EDIT: x-ed with two Nerwens

[Loslote]

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith

[Thinlómien]

Okay, now I'm pretty conflicted about Nerwen, I didn't expect such an outburst.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.
The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering).

Originally Posted by Legate

That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

Lottie, you up for some democracy?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie, you up for some democracy?

Sure! Tis the season.

[satansaloser2005]

The morning came silently, with most sleeping in. Only Sally awoke early, a certain feeling of unease pulling her from her bed much earlier than she liked.

Every house was peaceful and in order, except that of Nerwen, whose door was partway open, her flowers uprooted and scattered across the lawn.

"Nerwen?" Sally called when a few knocks returned no response. "Nerwen, it's just me. Is everything all right?" Finally Sally nudged the door the rest of the way open, revealing a blanket-clad Nerwen curled up in the corner by the fireplace.

Flowers were clutched in her hand, the blooms near her face as if she had just been smelling them. Beside her body was a small bag, the sleeve of one of her shirts hanging out of the edge. When Sally knelt at her side, she found a roughly scrawled note in what was clearly Nerwen's handwriting.

"WOE IS MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!" the note read in over-sized letters. Below that, the writing continued. "I wish I could stay. I'm sorry."

Sally covered Nerwen with a spare blanket, reluctantly leaving her home and locking the door before going to report her passing to the group. As she approached the center of the Ward, she thought back to Nerwen's packed bag. Perhaps, just this once, a lie would be easier than the truth.


Patients
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber
Nerwen


It is now Day 3.

[Kuruharan]

Well, that's interesting.

Apparently our Herbalist didn't think Nerwen trustworthy enough to save or perhaps has fewer abilities to save than we thought and believed it necessary to save some for later. That second one is not good...especially for me since I was hit with the Black Breath last NIGHT.

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo. Now Nerwen is confirmed as having been one. I don't think I will be able to do a numbers post tonight (I will tomorrow, which is still part of toNIGHT ) but we may have reached a point where we are going to have to try some lynches. Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?

[Inziladun]

Well, so much for suspicions.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Apparently our Herbalist didn't think Nerwen trustworthy enough to save or perhaps has fewer abilities to save than we thought and believed it necessary to save some for later. That second one is not good...especially for me since I was hit with the Black Breath last NIGHT.

What do you mean by the second option? We know the Herbalist has a limited supply of herbs.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo.

I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent. It doesn't really matter anyway, as the focus should still ferreting out the Conspirators.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.

I think a lynch needs to happen at this point. The odds are at least better now of striking evil.

This statement has a bit of an Captain Obvious air though, like evil trying to look nice and helpful.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?

Maybe Nerwen gave off Gifted vibes? That's the only reason I can come up with.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

What do you mean by the second option? We know the Herbalist has a limited supply of herbs.

I meant that the number of Herbalist saves might be limited to as few as three or four. They might also be lost when used regardless of if the target was genuinely afflicted or not.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Be not bereaved, dear one, all is not yet lost! Is not the sky the bluest we've seen in weeks? Is not your own flowerbed responding to the sunlight - look there, how the colors dance! All will yet be well, if you just keep looking on the bright side.

(No, this isn't a bardic hint or anything like that. It's just... I mean, it's Nerwen. )

In other news, I apologize for my absence. I'm afraid I won't be around much today - Saturday is the busiest day of the week for me. As such, I'm going to vote for my representative fairly early, probably in the next hour or two. It's likely to be for Lottie or my moon and stars, given the obvious. I'll follow along as I can, though.

My priceless treasure...! You have almost rekindled the waning light of my spirit. Almost...

Originally Posted by Loslote

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith

Let's look at the most *likely* wolf strategy for toDay, hmmn? Isn't it going be "build suspicion against last Night's target"? I think it's quite possible a Zilwolf got a little too excited by your theory...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering.)

Actually, if we decide to give the wild theorizing a rest- then yes, we did have a kill last Night. Me. Everyone need not accept my story 100% while I'm still alive, but at least we can examine it from that point of view.

I don't think I said anything particularly "gifted" sounding yesterDay, though.
Edit: accidentally quoted wrong person.
Edit: x'd since Lottie at #121.

[Kuruharan]

Ok, now I've caught up.

I agree with the seemingly building consensus that Lottie should be Rep toNIGHT.

I also am tilting more toward supporting the idea of no lynch toNIGHT.

I know, I kind of want to roll my eyes at myself for saying it...so I will.

Yes, there are dangers, and the possibility of a reduced evidence trail high on that list...but think of the upsides.

1) Keeping as many people as possible alive in the Ward, pushing us one DAY closer to the Ride of the Rohirrim (I don't think I've ever longed for their coming or sympathized with the plight of the Gondorians in Minas Tirith quite as much as I do now).

2) If Nerwen is telling the truth (a definite possibility) we will still have 9 inmates in here with us, outnumbering the wolves 2-1, and making it harder for them to vote as a block. We might have 10 still if McC should yet appear.

3) There seems to be great disagreement on a potential candidate for a lynch toDAY...and a resolution to the argument might not be forthcoming at any time in the near future.

Just food for thought, but please everyone think on it.

[Kuruharan]

Made a bit of a misstatement on point 2 above regarding items in favor of a no lynch.

2) If Nerwen is telling the truth and the Herbalist heals her...the rest reads the same as the original.

Edit: Xed with Nerwen

Things have livened up a bit.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

Well not exactly the explanation I was hoping for But ok, fair enough about the subjective part - I understand if you find her the most suspicious, but objectively speaking, there is not much logic in lynching her if she is supposedly dying of Black Breath.

Anyway, just a quick list then, too, so that I can lead by example, resp. since Kuru already posted his, that I hopefully inspire others.

Green zone:
Lottie - sensible and all, plus most probably innocent, based on how things look.
Kuru - feels mostly okay. Is active and everything, there were a couple of times when I was like "but what if!!!", but there is no objective reason for me to suspect him.

Sub-green zone:
Nerwen - for the time being, I am okay with believing her. I understand the suspicions some are having and if there is anyone to pull off some awful thing, it would be her. But it makes no sense to lynch her now.

Yellow zone:

Lommy - generally having good points, or if not good, then at least being fairly contributive to the discussion and all. If nothing else, I am not afraid of her being a "quiet Wolf". So, not any priority lynch for the time being.

Lalaith - like with Zil, I just have sometimes these on-off vibes from her that I am not sure what I am dealing with. But generally nothing dramatic, I would like to get more reading on her.

Shasta - I don't see the points Kuru brings against him as very much valid. His vote was x-ed with all the other votes, so in that sense, it is just as well. As a note, I disagree with his lobbying to send in Nerwen toDay (and like I said, we probably should not do that - not yet, just in case, also while we have probably a better choice on our hands). If I believed any Nerwen-conspiration theory, then he would fall right in (lobbying for a packmate to be elected, if they already made such an effort to pretend she was about to die).

Orange zone (undecided and if it came to lynching, not opposed to any of the below, of course with some more, some less):

Inziladun - what I said above. Confusing, most of all (the same with his last one-liner of an answer to me about Nerwen. I mean, that's all good and well, but who are you? xyzzy?)

Boro - okay, first of all, where is the active Boro? Secondly, what kind of a behavior it is if you are being inactive and when you post, it is to ask one question of two players who said who they wanted to lynch the Day before?

...but as you can see, it is mostly about not having a reading on those, or rather not getting what they are up to.

Zero zone:
McCaber - it would be nice if he showed up.

If I had to name our Wolves now, I would say Shasta, Boro, and somebody. But that would also mean a very quiet pack.

In any case, I am up for electing Lottie toDay, not Nerwen. Let's give Nerwen a "probatory time", especially since she's been the source of some controversion; I see no reason to elect her on top of everything.

EDIT: x-ed with all the Kurus and Nerwens after Zil's post

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Inziladun - what I said above. Confusing, most of all (the same with his last one-liner of an answer to me about Nerwen. I mean, that's all good and well, but who are you? xyzzy?)

Well, I think the xyzzy era preceded my WW involvement. Anyway, I'm afraid I'm just not very analytical at the moment. Being at work doesn't help.

I guess I'd be on board with Lottie-rep. I can't think of a better candidate.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

x/d with Lottie and Kuru

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

x/d with Lottie and Kuru

Oh. Why am I "sketchy"?

I think you jumped on Lottie's suggestion veeery quickly...

Edit: x'd with Kuru.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh. Why am I "sketchy"?

I think you jumped on Lottie's suggestion veeery quickly...

Ah, dueling suspicions. Nice.

I never said you were a super-odd-evil-Conspirator, but if I had to pick one for a lynch it's be you.

x/d with Kuru and Legate

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah, dueling suspicions. Nice.

I never said you were a super-odd-evil-Conspirator, but if I had to pick one for a lynch it's be you.

x/d with Kuru and Legate

Except that under the present circumstances it would make absolutely no sense to lynch me toDay.

You know what would make sense? One or more wolves pushing the notion that I am a Very Suspicious Character, on whom no healing should be wasted toNight. It's such an obvious strategy that I'd have been quite surprised if no one had tried it.

Edit: x'd with Kuru.
Edit 2: word left out.

[Lalaith]

Right, I'm going to vote for rep now to avoid any risk of modfire.
++Loslote for rep please.

I don't have any strong feelings about a lynching candidate. I'm not feeling the Nerwen suspicion myself. If things get more interesting/revealing later on, it will be past my bedtime
However, barring any major excitements - if McCaber hasn't turned up maybe vote for him as he'll be modfired anyway?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kuru

Nerwen

Ahh…yes…well…

I had the distinct impression yesterDAY that she was trying to signal that she had the Black Breath. I might have been off, but I had that impression. That does not make her look good to my mind toDAY.

Meaning my early Day One banter? Well you see, at the time I assumed victims were allowed to reveal outright- which they are, so actually it would be better to say I failed to guess that other players would assume they weren't. The point is that it didn't occur to me that it would be taken as a "hint".

Originally Posted by Kuru

Conclusion: I am *deeply* uncomfortable with her. Lottie’s suggestion regarding a potential plan exploiting McC seems a little chancy to want to risk for the wolves…but it would explain a lot to my mind. With the lack of a competing sick claim though, Nerwen’s claims cannot be discounted.
I can’t emphasize enough how uncomfortable on many, many fronts I am with her.

Hmmn. Lottie's theory on McCaber makes so little sense to my mind that I am myself rather "uncomfortable" with anyone who thinks it does. This is not really personal... it's just that a logical inference from the game dynamic is that, having targeted me last Night, the baddies will be trying hard to discredit me toDay... so when I see people doing what seems to me like clutching at straws, well it makes me wonder, even about you, who have otherwise seemed pretty innocent.

Also-

Nerwen vs. Lottie
Is it possible they are both baddies and have concocted some kind of scheme?

Come on, how could that work?

Edit: x'd since last post.
Edit2: typo

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Come on, how could that work?

Would you be understanding if I said I didn't want to explain?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Would you be understanding if I said I didn't want to explain?

I'm not sure, actually. I get that you might be afraid of helping the evil side by doing so.

And look, I'm not getting any particular bad vibes from you, Kuru... it's just, well, what I said about the wolves' likely strategy of trying to discredit targets means I don't think I can just let this go.

Can I put it this way: do you truly, honestly have a theory that would account for two false claims and no counterclaims? You don't have to explain it, just "yes" or "no".

Edit: x'd with Lalaith.

[Nerwen]

I'll follow suit
++Lottie for rep.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Right, I'm going to vote for rep now to avoid any risk of modfire.
++Loslote for rep please.

Thank you, Lalaith for voting. I was beginning to worry you had fallen asleep on us.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Can I put it this way: do you truly, honestly have a theory that would account for two false claims and no counterclaims? You don't have to explain it, just "yes" or "no".

Yes.

How about this:

"O Great and Wise 'erbalist, we thy 'umble charges express our great gratitude to thee for last NIGHT's good work. I, Kuruharan, son of Khoreth of Durin's Folk do 'umbly beseech thee to 'eal Nerwen of the Folk of Oz of whatever foul disease 'ath smote 'er. Unless, of course, McCaber the Absent happens to appear and claim to be sick.

I do beseech this with 'and on 'eart and in all sincerity in spite of my funny accent, which just seemed too amusing not to adopt.

Unless, of course, being Great and Wise you 'ave a better idea."

And I mean every word of it...which will hopefully further set Lottie's mind at rest about me too.

Now...on the subject of Lottie I would happily vote for her right now...except I would really like some idea of what she will vote for because there are some potential lynch victims I will absolutely not support.

And I'd prefer not to lynch anybody today.

Xed with some additional votes

[Thinlómien]

Okay, let's get a least one ball rolling.

++Lottie for representative


As for the suspicions, then, I think making a list will help me sort my thoughts out:

Nerwen - there's something a little off about her and if there's a wolvish scheme going on right now I'd bet she's involved. I find it puzzling that she's made black breath hints on both Days, even though her explanation for her behaviour yesterDay kinda makes sense. Mostly I'm just really confused as for what on earth she'd be trying to achieve as a wolf, but I'm not discounting the option she's thought things through more than I have.

Kuru - I keep flip-flopping on him. Some of the things he says sound pretty shady, sometimes he sounds very honest and, un-scheming? Definitely not a lynch priority in my mind however.

McCaber - would be nice if he appeared, but I'm getting a little pessimistic here.

Lottie - I think she's innocent.

Lalaith - hard to read, quiet and friendly. Could be anything, but would a wolf really be so confused about the rules? (Okay, we all are a bit confused about them, but she seems more than most.)

Legate - looks like innocent Legate to me so far, and I like his keeping the discussion alive and rolling.

Dun - probably on the top of my suspicion list. I am well aware I might just be jumping on a bandwgon here, but he is the one who sort of stands out as fishy. There's just something wrong about the way he questions people and their points in a kind of happily polite manner. Like, if we had a cobbler in the village, I'd be pointing fingers at him. It sort of feels like he's trying to sidetrack the discussion. (Or maybe he's just taking part and we have different priorities. But he just rubs me the wrong way.)

Boro - very quiet, appears with a ninja question about Inzil, then disappears again. Very weird. Definitely keeping an eye on him.

Shasta - so far seems like basic Shasta, slightly lurkery, loud when he gets in the mood, sharp and a little angry. (Sorry my friend. ) Not on the top of my suspicion list, but he's fooled me before.

I'll be off now for a while, then come back to mock vote. I hope everyone else will mock vote too.


edit: xed with Nerwens and Lalaiths