Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.

Also, there's this, from Kuru -

I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.

- which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So then, if we have a wolfpack of three, I think two of them are Kuru and Boro. For the third... well, it's obviously not Lottie. It's technically possible it's Lalaith - but after thinking her fairly innocent all game, and then her mentioning the possible no-kill... I doubt it. Could it be Legate? Well, I suppose it could - Kuru's been fairly vocal about Legate being "clear" most of the game, as far as I can tell, and the no-lynch being the optimal strategy was fairly clear from the beginning - no reason a canny wolf couldn't pounce on that to seem innocent. That's only a "maybe", though. I think, after yesterday's attempt to throw shade on me alongside Kuru out of nowhere, Lommy's probably more likely to be the third wolf. I'd probably prefer a Kuru/Boro/Lommy lynch order.

I'll go on record again as not particularly wanting to vote for Lottie a fourth time in a row. But at this point, she's already got a vote (albeit from a probable wolf) and it's better to capitalize at this point in the game.

++Lottie 4 repz.... again, I guess

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup.

Sounds like a stymied and frustrated wolf to me.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win.

Hence the frustration. The Ward's initial adopted tactic of not lynching was specifically designed to counter this problem.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice when as you say...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves).

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.

Or a sign of a plot developed in the NIGHT so that the wolves will be on the same page and saying the same thing during the DAY attacking one of the players that poses the greatest threat to them.

Xed with the last Shasta

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

Can only lynch one at a time.

Priorities and probabilities.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

Risk vs. reward, which I'm sure you know all about - giving up one kill attempt -that has a major drawback in clearing someone, and isn't strictly necessary in any case, as today's situation proves - in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch). And, also, look at the situation you're in today, as has been pointed out - one vote away from winning the game entirely. Not a bad return on giving up one kill attempt, wouldn't you say?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice

Same reason the innocents would "fail" to lynch someone. Different strategies for different setups.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

- in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch).

That is not true.

I did not want Inzil lynched yesterday and argued against it. See Post 167 and Post 209.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Do you mean these?

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Indeed. You said much the same about Lalaith -

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

- and Lommy -

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

- lots of "mights" there. In fact, I think your strongest candidate was, well -

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.

- me.

When it came down to Inzil versus Lalaith, though -

Make no mistake about it, I do not trust Inzil. He may very well be bad and we may need to eject him.

However, of the realistic candidates on offer, I feel worse about ++Lalaith.

Sorry, Lalaith. You know I love you.

I'd almost argue you seem to have felt worse about Inzil earlier - it's a bit hard to tell, though, with all the "mights" floating around. However, at the time you quasi-voted, the votes stood thusly -

Loslote=>Lalaith
Zil=>Lalaith
Lommy=>Inzil
Legate=>Inzil

- with Lalaith, Boro, and myself to vote. Lalaith could obviously be expected to vote for Inzil in self-preservation, and Boro abstained (eyebrow-raising; I'd have expected him to care more, I suppose). In any case, it's an interesting tie to have made; your vote kept the votes tied for as long as possible, and you made it fairly plain in your post that you'd be fine with Lalaith or Inzil. It seems disingenuous that you'd then try to use that as evidence today that you didn't want Inzil lynched.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

However, at the time you quasi-voted, the votes stood thusly

You are continuing with your transparent attempts to twist my words. I in no way quasi-voted. When I voted I flat out stated that I wanted Lalaith lynched yesterDAY.

There are three wolves, therefore, I am allowed to suspect more than one person at a time.

We are, however, only allowed to lynch one person at a time. So I have to make a choice about which potential candidate to support at any one time, based on factors such as the intensity of my belief in their guilt and the likelihood of my vote tipping the scales toward lynching the candidate I feel most strongly to be guilty.

For the record, a quasi-vote looks like this...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Lottie 4 Rep

I'd go with Lommy or Boro, at this point. Outside shot at Inzil, I suppose, but the first two (mostly after Lommy's most recent spin on things I've done).

Talk about wishy-washy...

It seems disingenuous that you'd then try to use that as evidence today that you didn't want Inzil lynched.

Inzil might have been bad...and given that we've lynched him I hope he was!

What I object to is your implication that my alleged support of lynching Inzil yesterDAY, an allegation that is not backed up by the easily examined facts, is somehow indicative of my participation in some elaborate and torturous plot to deceive the Ward and win the game as a wolf.

What I pointed out was that your assertion fell flat on its own merits.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I suppose another good question would be, why would a Borowolf use his vote on the cleared innocent Lottie so early on in the day, when the game hinges on a single vote (assuming an innocent Inzil)?

Well, voting anyone but Lottie at this stage is silly. Although he did try, early on, as has been pointed out. Regardless, look at who Lottie has suspected today - Lalaith and myself, for the most part. Whereas Lommy and Kuru are basically given a pass - it's a reasonable assumption to think she'd continue going after Lalaith and I today and leave his packmates alone.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You are continuing with your transparent attempts to twist my words. I in no way quasi-voted. When I voted I flat out stated that I wanted Lalaith lynched yesterDAY.

I'm not twisting anything. You're overreacting a bit, I'm afraid. Each time I've used the phrase "quasi-vote", I've used it to mean the vote that we would cast if we were voting traditionally. In which case your "vote" for Lalaith was a "quasi-vote" - because you didn't have to adhere to it.

My own quasi-vote was in no way "wishy-washy", either - Lommy had very recently acted in a way which made me suspect her and I'd suspected Boro based purely on process of elimination. Inzil was there purely because I thought Lalaith looked better, and they were the two on the chopping block, but I specifically put him last. How is that "wishy-washy"?

What I object to is your implication that my alleged support of lynching Inzil yesterDAY, an allegation that is not backed up by the easily examined facts, is somehow indicative of my participation in some elaborate and torturous plot to deceive the Ward and win the game as a wolf.

I think I've already pointed out that your support of Inzil's lynch was something more than "alleged". Yes, you ended up plus-plusing Lalaith, but you did so in a manner that shifted responsibility for the eventual choice entirely off of you and you made it patently clear that you were okay with either candidate.

[Kuruharan]

Anyway, as entertaining as this is, we are reaching voting time.

Since, Heaven Knows, I wouldn't want to be accused of quasi-voting, I'd like to be able to make all my votes clearly and in one post.

As I said at the start of the DAY, I think both Shasta and Lalaith are wolves.

It seems like Lalaith is on quite a number of people's suspicion lists so can we accumulate enough votes to tell our Rep to lynch her?

[Loslote]

Shasta, I disagree so strongly with your interpretations of what's been going on that it's almost like we're playing totally different games.

I do think the wolves *need* to attack at least one of Legate or Kuru toDay, simply because of the way the numbers currently stand. If all three of Legate, Kuru, and I are out of the running for the lynch toDay, then that leaves only four people - Lommy, Lalaith, Boro, and Shasta. We have between three and two wolves in those four people, depending on Zil's alignment. The chances of us hitting a wolf are really very good so long as we stick to only these four people. If we suddenly expand that to include Legate and Kuru, then our chances go way down. So I'm very suspicious of the people trying to cast suspicion on either of those two - yesterDay it was mostly on Legate, toDay it seems to mostly be on Kuru, but both Days the suspicion was flaky and unsubstantiated.

I feel much worse about Shasta following his attacks on Kuru and Boro toDay, both because of the potential motivation behind the attacks and the manner of the attacks themselves. He seemed almost desperate to swing the momentum back against Kuru, and kept picking at little things like why Boro didn't vote yesterDay (which made sense to me, he didn't have enough time to read through properly and didn't think he had a good idea of who might be guilty yet) or why Kuru didn't want to lynch Boro toDay despite suspecting him (again, makes perfect sense, we have targets that deserve higher lynching priority). I would put Shasta at the top of my list toDay.

Edit: xed since Shasta's #244

[Boromir88]

Remember when I said this back in #191 (everyone should be able to, not like I've done much of anything):

I wouldn't be throwing any parties. I'm likely to be pretty useless for as long as I'm still around, just a tired soul who's going to be an body for the cold stone tomb whenever the conspirators get into a sticky spot. (I see it's kinda started to happen).

But rest assured I won't go out THAT way (mod-firing). The conspirators will have to stick their necks out if they want me gone...I just can't see (nor should anyone expect) myself doing anything to make them want to get rid of me this time. :/

I figured out early on, I wasn't going to be able to do much good in terms of contributing suspicions/ideas/strategy, but I was not going out via mod-fire. I could at least fulfill my civilian obligation and in that way make the conspirators work to convince the rep and innocents into getting rid of me.

I won't blame the rep (assuming it's going to be Lottie tonight), if the will of the people says I should go. My lack of activity isn't a choice. I never choose to be unhelpful (even as a baddie I try to at least appear helpful). I'm helping to the best of my abilities right now...by assuring I wasn't going out from a mod-fire, I would at least make the conspirators waste a day on me.