Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.

I was thinking the same. In that way, having one generally trusted elected representative helps a lot. Because the WWs can't very well manipulate vote at least in that way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here. And to be perfectly frank, I trust Kuru about as far as I can throw him (hint: not far). I'll reply to his points in #225 first -

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

I still believe this, for the record. I'll explain below. Also, you said yesterDay that you were suspicious of me for making this comment because it was "overly pessimistic". You can't have it both ways.

Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

I didn't think he was evil. I'll be the first to admit I've had more innocent-reads than guilty-reads this game - Inzil was one of them. As Legate has said today, I only quasi-voted for Inzil over Lalaith because I tend to have a stronger innocent-read on her. Could I be wrong? Of course I could be - anyone could. I don't think I am, though.

Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

I already admitted that the McCaber modfire is what threw off my calculations. Honestly, I put that scenario together during the Night. This is the only game we've ever played where innocents can be certain of surviving the Night, and I couldn't be here during the proper Day, so I took advantage. Also, it's easy to scroll past things when you're playing on mobile.

Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

I didn't, at the time. Like I already said, the first two lazy days played havoc with my Werewolf radar. I didn't really suspect either Lommy or Lalaith, and neither had said overly much in any case (I know, pot meet kettle) - it wasn't until the very end of the day yesterDay that I began to suspect Lommy.

Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Defending Inzil isn't suspicious unless you know for a fact he's evil - which you can't, unless you're evil yourself. Odd, that. In any case, Legate is scary when left unlooked at and I had to narrow it down to three.

Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Cause it's boring. No one's denying it was the sensible option - you'll notice I voted for Lottie in the end. But Lottie's been rep every day and I'm playing this game to have fun.

Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

Already explained this. The quasi-voting had given every appearance of coming down to Inzil and Lalaith - of the two, I was more confident in Lalaith being innocent.

----------

Now then. Why's Kuru a wolf? Well, it's actually fairly devious.

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup. I don't think Sally would do that. As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves). The wolves' other option is to outnumber the village, but the same limiting factors apply to that scenario as well. It's doable, but only just. The setup makes much more sense, in my opinion, if the Herbalist can only save once.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win. Reporting someone to the guards is a much better method of killing than demoralization (which clears an innocent every day unless counterclaimed). Look at the numbers (the ones Kuru is so fond of crunching ) - even having "missed" two kills, we're still in a possible 4v3 situation today if Inzil was indeed innocent. All the wolves need is a single innocent vote to go their way and they've got a majority.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

And Boro, who I think must be a wolf based on process of elimination, started the day by suggesting Kuru be representative, which leads back to the "single innocent vote" above. He's voted Lottie by now, of course, after being called on it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.

Also, there's this, from Kuru -

I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.

- which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So then, if we have a wolfpack of three, I think two of them are Kuru and Boro. For the third... well, it's obviously not Lottie. It's technically possible it's Lalaith - but after thinking her fairly innocent all game, and then her mentioning the possible no-kill... I doubt it. Could it be Legate? Well, I suppose it could - Kuru's been fairly vocal about Legate being "clear" most of the game, as far as I can tell, and the no-lynch being the optimal strategy was fairly clear from the beginning - no reason a canny wolf couldn't pounce on that to seem innocent. That's only a "maybe", though. I think, after yesterday's attempt to throw shade on me alongside Kuru out of nowhere, Lommy's probably more likely to be the third wolf. I'd probably prefer a Kuru/Boro/Lommy lynch order.

I'll go on record again as not particularly wanting to vote for Lottie a fourth time in a row. But at this point, she's already got a vote (albeit from a probable wolf) and it's better to capitalize at this point in the game.

++Lottie 4 repz.... again, I guess

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup.

Sounds like a stymied and frustrated wolf to me.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win.

Hence the frustration. The Ward's initial adopted tactic of not lynching was specifically designed to counter this problem.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice when as you say...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves).

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought.

Or a sign of a plot developed in the NIGHT so that the wolves will be on the same page and saying the same thing during the DAY attacking one of the players that poses the greatest threat to them.

Xed with the last Shasta

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

Can only lynch one at a time.

Priorities and probabilities.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

Risk vs. reward, which I'm sure you know all about - giving up one kill attempt -that has a major drawback in clearing someone, and isn't strictly necessary in any case, as today's situation proves - in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch). And, also, look at the situation you're in today, as has been pointed out - one vote away from winning the game entirely. Not a bad return on giving up one kill attempt, wouldn't you say?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice

Same reason the innocents would "fail" to lynch someone. Different strategies for different setups.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

- in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch).

That is not true.

I did not want Inzil lynched yesterday and argued against it. See Post 167 and Post 209.

[Thinlómien]

So I think we can further confirm Lottie and Kuru are innocent. That makes me feel a teeny bit less worried about the option of Legate being a wolf after all, because these two have been his most adamant supporters.

Boro is kinda... ominous?

Originally Posted by Kuru

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Please, let's not start the not lynching business again. Until the game is over we won't know if it was a smart move or not, but I'm 99% sure it's not a smart move now, and it's very frustrating in any case.

Shasta's interesting? His outside-the-box thinking does make him look better in my eyes, even though I feel like Inzil-Shasta would have been a very likely wolf combo.

General thoughts at this point? I still think Legate the Benevolent Mastermind and Lalaith the Clueless (sorry dears) feel innocent, but I'm not leaving them out of my calculations. Shasta? Not so sure, especially if Inzil was indeed a wolf. Boro? Has hardly been here but the little we have seen isn't particularly convincing. I kinda agree with Kuru that lynching Boro would be a huge shot in the dark, but I don't like the idea of an inactive Borowolf being given a pass just because of his inactivity either. If Boro and Shasta are packmates, Shasta's recent attack on Boro could be a wolf-on-wolf distancing attempt. Note he puts Kuru first in his suspicions.

Yeah, so kinda leaning towards Inzil-Shasta-Boro at the moment, even though there's a lot of unsure in that. Of course the obvious solution is often wrong, so I definitely hope it's not something like Legate-Lalaith-Kuru.

I definitely want to hear more from Boro, (and also Lalaith). Like, if Boro doesn't post more I might advocate lynching him just because he's a liability.....


edit: xed with Kuru's #236 and onwards