T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

This might be village victory, then, right?

++Shasta

[Farael]

Not that I NECESSARILY distrust Sally but are we 100% SURE that there were two wolves? A wolf has already pretended to be the Seer... and why hasn't our alleged Seer told us of any other of her dreams?

I counsel caution here... Sally please tell me some more about you

[Rikae]

Whoa, whoa there, hold on people.

First off, calling for reveals is premature. We don't know that the seer dreams are all still alive - if they are, yeah, a seer reveal of three dreams + seer would narrow our unknowns down to three people, but if not, it really would be unwise.

Second, we don't know that there's any kind of ranger at all. "Very strange" suggests there isn't, and something else prevented the wolf kill, quite possibly something we can't count on in the future.

Third, the narration suggests there are three wolves.

Lottie, what the heck are you doing? Sally, you'll have to give us more than that.

[Rikae]

Or rather, the narration suggests there were three wolves, and now are two.

Hmm...

Or perhaps there was a cursed, and that's who the wolves attacked...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Or perhaps there was a cursed, and that's who the wolves attacked...

Huh. That would be 'strange indeed', so I guess that could be it. That's...not as good.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

First off, calling for reveals is premature. We don't know that the seer dreams are all still alive - if they are, yeah, a seer reveal of three dreams + seer would narrow our unknowns down to three people, but if not, it really would be unwise.

Second, we don't know that there's any kind of ranger at all. "Very strange" suggests there isn't, and something else prevented the wolf kill, quite possibly something we can't count on in the future.

Either way, the narration said the Agan was going after Galadriel, and if she was right, she'll be back again toNight, and we'd have lost our Seer. Even if that's not a guarantee, I think the risk that the wolves know who the Seer is and that they'll kill her as soon as they can is great enough to justify a reveal, especially since we're far enough in the game that the dreams can be useful - especially since I believe Sally's reveal - she wasn't in any danger of being lynched, and if she lied about Shasta being a wolf, we'll know toMorrow and lynch her accordingly. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense.

Third, the narration suggests there are three wolves.

Oh. I misinterpreted it, then, my bad. Still, even if it was three wolves, we'll be down to just the one wolf after toDay, so that's still not bad.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Loslote

. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense

Are we sure we don't have a cobbler? I really wish i was home to be able to read up on things

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either way, the narration said the Agan was going after Galadriel, and if she was right, she'll be back again toNight, and we'd have lost our Seer. Even if that's not a guarantee, I think the risk that the wolves know who the Seer is and that they'll kill her as soon as they can is great enough to justify a reveal, especially since we're far enough in the game that the dreams can be useful - especially since I believe Sally's reveal - she wasn't in any danger of being lynched, and if she lied about Shasta being a wolf, we'll know toMorrow and lynch her accordingly. A fake reveal from Sally at this point in the game doesn't make sense.

If she's honest she can and should tell us everything she knows. In fact, she hasn't even called herself the seer, or Shasta a wolf.

I wonder... let me go check something.

[Rikae]

Just looking at Shasta/Sally interactions. Seems he did suspect her, and the reasons look a little fabricated to me, but he went after Lottie far more strongly.
I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

This may seem paranoid, but she's expecting people to trust her before she's given us much of anything, and that doesn't sit right with me.

[Rikae]

Actually, now that I work it out, she couldn't win our trust long enough to win (2 wolf 5 innocent toDay, 1 wolf 4 innocent toMorrow, 1 wolf 2 innocent day-after-tomorrow) - not unless there are three wolves left (3 wolf 5 innocent, 2 wolf 3 innocent, 2 wolf 1 innocent).
But it was 2-3, which I'm now thinking almost certainly means a cursed and we have 2 wolves right now.
Perhaps she's sure Shasta is the seer and believes she's already doomed, and sees an opportunity to get him lynched AND out Nimrodel, going out in a blaze of glory. I could definitely see Sally doing that.

I'm not saying she can't be the seer but I absolutely think all voting and/or revealing should wait until she comes back and gives us a more complete reveal to work with.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.


Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

Is my reasoning in the above scenarios correct?

[Coppermirror]

Assuming that Sally's telling the truth and that she dreamed of a Shastawolf, and that as of last Night there may now be a Cursed wolf, I should apologise for failing to vote on Day 2. What happened was that I plain couldn't decide who to vote for, but didn't feel comfortable leaving Agan, who hadn't voted yet, in a place where she could be the one to decide the outcome. So I got a half-baked idea that maybe I would wait to see who Agan voted for and vote the opposing way. But, possibly anticipating that, she placed her vote part way through the final minute before the deadline, and I was too slow.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Farael

Sally please tell me some more about you

Very well. As you wish.


~~~~~~~~

Single elf seer seeking trusting villagers to help eradicate wolf infestation. I'm a Taurus (but I don't drive one), I like short walks to the cupcake store, and my hobbies include catching wolves and staring quizzically at villagers who don't believe me. My favorite color is wolf blood red, and my favorite food is the humble pie the wolves will be eating at the end of this game. If you respond to my reveal, we'll have a lovely evening ridding ourselves of pesky wolves and doing a victory dance (though this may have to wait until our second date if there is a cursed around). Please respond by voting for the known wolf I've given you toDay.

~~~~~~~~


Hello. I'm back.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Very well. As you wish.


~~~~~~~~

Single elf seer seeking trusting villagers to help eradicate wolf infestation. I'm a Taurus (but I don't drive one), I like short walks to the cupcake store, and my hobbies include catching wolves and staring quizzically at villagers who don't believe me. My favorite color is wolf blood red, and my favorite food is the humble pie the wolves will be eating at the end of this game. If you respond to my reveal, we'll have a lovely evening ridding ourselves of pesky wolves and doing a victory dance (though this may have to wait until our second date if there is a cursed around). Please respond by voting for the known wolf I've given you toDay.

~~~~~~~~


Hello. I'm back.

Cheeky believe me, I WANT to trust you! But I'm going to need a bit more than what you've given me. Who else have you dreamed about? Surely now it's not the time to hold back, any known Ordos you can give us will narrow the search for a possible third wolf

[satansaloser2005]

Both of my other dreams are ordinary villagers. Yes, I said are; both of them are still alive. I'd like Nimrodel to reveal first purely so that if one of the innocents has been turned and they lie about their role in an attempt to clear themselves, I'll know they have been changed. It's a slim chance, but, well, this is a trippy game, man.

[Farael]

I'm not sure I follow your logic here. By revealing Shasta you've made it so that the only person with an incentive to fake reveal is him.

Why would a fake lover come out, when you would know better? And why are we all assuming the lover is on our side?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Farael

Why would a fake lover come out, when you would know better?

Because they don't know who I've dreamt, and they might find it worth it to take their chance to add themselves to the "known" innocent camp. Wolves are weird, man. They'll try a lot of wacky things. *cough* Agan *cough*

Also because y'all were rude to me and have been calling me a cobbler for half the freaking Day, so make it up to me a little.

[satansaloser2005]

For those of you who want a bit more, I'm amenable to revealing this now: I dreamt of Shasta Night 1. Observe.

Originally Posted by Sally, to Shasta

Now, now, love. That's not nice. I understand you're upset about your precious one being gone, but there's no reason to take it out on me. I am not a werewolf. *harrumphs*

There's my first hint (bolding mine because italicization won't show in quotes).

Originally Posted by Sally, while discussing seer antics

There's one wolf down in my head....

There's my second.

Originally Posted by Sally

My prince must be avenged!

This was highlighted in the original post purely for the sake of a later remark and also to help point out my other dream result if I was killed in the Night. It was also highlighted because how dare the wolves kill Boro that early in the game.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Each Day the seer lives is another Day they could reveal a wolf.

Here's another tip that I've caught a wolf.

Originally Posted by Sally, to Shasta

Agan being in trouble at the time makes it a way bigger red flag than it would have been otherwise, but your timing looks incredibly sketch, and I'm an easy bandwagon, which is why I think you picked me.

The red flag comment here was meant to reinforce the highlighted note about Boro above. Also, my apologies to Shasta; I had meant to put "in trouble" in quotes to indicate the debatable nature of Agan's status at the time, but I was sleepy at the time and apparently forgot to add said punctuation. That was unintentionally contradictory of me. Whoops.


x'd with Farael

[Coppermirror]

Whoever Sally dreamed of on Night 2 might have been turned into a wolf later, but since if anyone was wolfified it was on Night 3, there's a possiblity that the innocent Sally dreamed that Night is the only person who could be counted as a known innocent. Might it depend on exactly when Nerwen-moddess gave out the information?

[Kitanna]

I realize I am playing a pretty terrible game and have barely been here and I am sorry, but...

++Shasta

I'm choosing to believe Sally because my dog died today and I am most certainly not in the mood to pick posts apart right now.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm choosing to believe Sally because my dog died today and I am most certainly not in the mood to pick posts apart right now.

I'm really sorry *hugs *

[satansaloser2005]

So I'm thinking Nimrodel should step up now. Yes/yes?

[Coppermirror]

If there's a Nerwen-moddess around, would you consider answering this question? For the purposes of this question, setting aside whether there actually is a cursed villager who became a wolf last Night, if there had been one, and if the Seer had dreamed of that person last Night, would you have told the Seer the updated information about that person, or would you have told them the non-updated information?

[Rikae]

I'm sorry to hear about your dog, Kitanna.

Well, my vote actually doesn't count anymore at this point. What Sally's saying about a cursed-dreamed-ordo false revealing as Nimrodel sounds like utter nonsense, for the record, but so does Shasta's "I show up as a wolf".

Whatever.

++Noam Chomsky

Sally, if you're the seer, please plainly reveal your ordos before the end of the day. If your hints are like the ones about Shasta I wouldn't count on us finding them.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, if you're the seer, please plainly reveal your ordos before the end of the day.

My ordos, she says. Then again, she's not among them, so I shouldn't be terribly surprised.

I am back and will read and cackle a bit before I reveal my other dreams and go to bed.

[satansaloser2005]

Known roles:
Shasta (wolf)
Copper (ordo)
Farael (ordo)
Sally (seer, duh)

Unknown roles:
Lottie
Rikae
Kitanna

In case anyone cares, the dreams are listed above in order.

[satansaloser2005]

Having put some pressure on the village to wait on my information, I'll note that Rikae seemed more perturbed by the wait than I believe an innocent her would have been. She really seemed to turn sour after I said my dreams were all alive, which is another point of interest to consider after I am inevitably gone toMorrow. I could well be wrong and she's just annoyed, but this smells of a furry Rikae realizing the tightness of her present spot. If there's a third wolf, I could think of no better candidate.



Note that we could (read, should) have at least a 1/3 chance of nabbing the last wolf (if there is one) toMorrow. The fact that Nimrodel didn't reveal and make it 50/50 makes me think they may not be aligned with the village, or that they are and their role is best kept hidden, which hopefully means the wolves will have quite the interesting Night if they get another one at all. I could speculate further, but I'll be dead come the morn and it likely won't be relevant anyway.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Known roles:
Shasta (wolf)
Copper (ordo)
Farael (ordo)
Sally (seer, duh)

Unknown roles:
Lottie
Rikae
Kitanna

In case anyone cares, the dreams are listed above in order.

Sooo, this game is utter insanity.

Assuming Nerwen would have told Sally if she dreamt Nimrodel (which why wouldn't she) that means one of these three unknowns is Nimrodel and one is a wolf and one is an ordo. I know I'm an ordo so will we be playing a round of musical reveals for the role of Nimrodel with the other two unknowns?

Thanks to Agan I'm not sure who to find guilty. Agan claimed to have dreamed Rikae innocent. Wolf on wolf? Wolf jumping on an innocent to confuse things later?

Then she suggested the remaining voters try to get Lottie lynched. Both Lottie and Rikae didn't believe Agan's reveal, but still didn't vote for her which I found odd then and I find odd now.

I have to get to work, but I'll be back around my lunch hour.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If there's a Nerwen-moddess around, would you consider answering this question? For the purposes of this question, setting aside whether there actually is a cursed villager who became a wolf last Night, if there had been one, and if the Seer had dreamed of that person last Night, would you have told the Seer the updated information about that person, or would you have told them the non-updated information?

Obviously this is a rather difficult question for me to answer. To my way of thinking, this hypothetical Cursed would probably not have assumed wolf status until the Night was over- so would *not* have shown up to the Seer as a wolf last Night.

The above should not be taken as confirming any part of your scenario, however.