WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

Just to quote a few:

Originally Posted by Cop

Kitanna:
In favour of voting her:
Ah. Her Day #2 Enca vote that could have been an attempt to set up an alternative to a Mac (or Inzil) lynch. If somebody was trying to save him, it was most likely to be her.
Possible "no lions" Lionish slip about G55's posts.
Mixed points: Mac puts her on his Day 1 suspicious list, but says it's flimsy - good cover for her?
He continues to hedge at #131 about her and others.
Kit makes lots of mixed statements about Mac's guilt and non-guilt.
At #179 Mac might be trying to suggest one of Kit, Boro and Rikae was dreamed innocent.

Originally Posted by Greenie

++ Kitanna
In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

Originally Posted by me

Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her.

You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer.

Boro's return makes more sense than his actions yesterDay. I feel better about him already, even though it seems we still disagree.

Originally Posted by Boro

I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

It wasn't that you stated that her vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion, it was the dramatic way you pulled a full-blown defense of her quite out of the blue that struck me as weird and not entirely innocent. Yes, as an innocent you can feel pretty confident that another player is innocent too. But my experience from past games tells me that the most flamboyant speeches proclaiming someone's innocence usually come from seers (which you're not) or from wolves overdoing their plan to call someone innocent (because wolves don't have any genuine second-guessing going on).

Originally Posted by Lottie

What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Are you serious?? I don't like the double kills either, but if a village started with as many players as we have now (12) there'd be 3 wolves and we only have 2 to find, so compared to that we're still pretty ok and at least I'm still kind of hoping/assuming the lovers are siding with us because mathematically it makes more sense. Lynching the bear doesn't bring us any closer to victory, but we could theoretically get rid of the wolves toMorrow if we get it right both Days. This suggestion is so fishy that I don't even know what to say. Pretty bold for a wolf, though.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Plus they might want to target the ranger (or the bear?) and avoid the hunter. But in general I agree with Nogrod's points up there.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Great, so now my brain is tempted to jump from the assumption "Boro was a wolf who knew Kit was innocent" to "Boro was a bear who knew Kit was innocent". That being said, I wonder if the bear and the maiden are laying false trails to other villagers to ensure their lover's survival if they die themselves. Not that we can do much with that piece of speculation (except I can maybe further justify my suspicion of Boro's defense of Kitanna, lol).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.

Maybe they are just messing with our heads. Or getting gifted vibes from these people? Or bear vibes?

What on earth is going on with Sally. Also, since Eomer has been asking the same questions as you, the reasons why Kitanna was voted yesterDay have been and will be repeated.

Originally Posted by Sally

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

False. It is not mathematically impossible although I agree it's very improbable. (Really, what's with all this crappy math in this game?)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

Amen to that. I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

I'm going now, and I will be back later, not sure when and for how much time, but I'll be here.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

I'm just frustrated that I didn't get a chance to post yesterDay, so it's particularly annoying that one of the few people I didn't suspect at all was the one that was chosen, and I couldn't do anything about it. Also, two of the people I suspect quite a bit voted Kitanna and got away with it.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

This is all I said about Kitanna in my analysis:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.

So yeah, I'm one of those who "knew" Kitanna was innocent, along with Boro, Eomer and Eonwe. There you go, all four baddies for you.

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions. Innocent Nog might do the same, but he'd do it more blatantly!

Others I don't feel so good about would be Encai (still) and Inzil, for wolf-on-wolfishness.

Unfortunately I'm going to have to vote early toDay.

[Rikae]

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

Just checking this on my phone and this caught my eye. Please slow down Rikae! I'm sorry if I have misrepresented you. All I said before was that you had been one of those to point out things in Kitanna's defense (this was before you analysed Mac's posts.) Now my impression was that more or less all analysts yesterDay found Kitanna suspicious, if you didn't, then I misremembered.

And to everyone who suspects me, do you really think I would have killed Gil if I was a wolf? That would be plain suicidal, both because there was quite a lot of suspicion against me already yesterDay and because the hunter is still alive. Also I can't fathom why as a wolf would I have every Day talked about how it makes way more sense for the lovers to side with the village. Really, think about it. I have a feeling I'm being set up as a lynch candidate since the beginning of the Day and I don't like it. I don't want to die with such a crappy track record and I don't want to die as a helpless victim of a wolf ploy!