WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Loslote]

Cop suspected four people yesterDay: Eomer, Lommy, myself, and, later, Kit. I remember being a little surprised by that, since of the original three suspicions, two of us (Eomer and myself) were not generally considered suspicious, and in fact, both of us were pretty generally agreed upon to have done things that looked more innocent than not. Cop's suspicion of Eomer and myself was unusual relative to the suspicions most people had that Day. If Cop was killed as a no-trace kill, it seems interesting to me that the bear chose someone with such unusual suspicions. My guess is that Cop was one of the few people who didn't suspect the bear and/or maiden to some degree. This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).
-----
What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

Sure, except for how I also said somewhere in the middle there "and by the same argument A or B might be "Jinx", so do we want to try our luck with lynching A or B, or do we want to focus on the wolves". If we want to focus on the wolves, that's fine. However, I thought Cop's death was too strange to be passed over completely, and I used the information I had to reach a logical suspicion. Normally, at this point, I would have simply moved Enca and Boro to my "suspicious" list. However, I suspect that one of them is the bear and/or maiden, and it really is a question whether or not we want to use a lynch on a bear suspicion, so I decided to pose the question to the village at this point rather than jumping in feet-first.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok Nogrod, I know for sure that you were pushing for a Kitanna lynch. For what its worth, I still consider you likely innocent for other reasons (see previous posts); but I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.

I don't think I was jumping on you. I was just pointing out that the kind of hindsight easily readable from your post is a kind of a flag - if not red then orange.

It might be a question of semantics though. To me it read like a little smug besserwissenschaft, but if it actually was just an honest question you willing to understand the reasons... well then I failed to read it from there. The eternal problem of doing things not in your mother-tongue...

[Nogrod]

To add on my earlier comment on Lottie's suggestion... I'd say we stick to searching the treacherous Lannister Lions because with them we at least have a clue (MacLion) and we know their general modus operandi ie. we have some ideas about what kind of things to look.

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Okay. That's a scenario.

But it's also a scenario full of if's... like any scenario we might build on the Bear at this point, I'm afraid.


First there's the "if" of the lovers being under suspicion aka. some pressure to be careful with their kills.

Now it seems you say that "exactly because them choosing Cop shows they were under pressure", but that is indeed begging the question as to whether there could have been any other reasons for the lovers to pick Cop?


Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

Yes, I suppose so. I just found it strange that, of all the people, Cop - whose suspicions were so unique yesterDay - was killed. For most possible scenarios, it seems like we could find someone who would have better fit. (Though, admittedly, your Eomer-me theory wouldn't work with anyone else!) But, yeah, I guess it is a bit of a stretch.

[Nogrod]

I seem to be so happy making different explanations as to forget to underline in the end their point...

So the point of the above different scenarios was that there are so many reasons and non-reasons for different lover-combinations to pick Cop last Night you can't quite pin point one that looks reasonable and think you got them.



Another thing before I go to sleep (it's 3.30 AM).

As I've had myself some problems following all the kills by the different sides I checked the Nightkills and they are as follows:

Bear
N2 Wilwa (seer)
N3 Nerwen
N4 Cop

Lions
N2 G55
N3 Volo
N4 Gil

I'm not sure if I can see any pattern there - in either of the lists. But please see them more closely if you can.

But I could say, that it somehow looks like after the terrible first gameNight kill the Bear and the maiden fair have been hunting possible lay-low lions.


Whether I am right or wrong with that interpretation, I'd say to the lovers that you should keep sticking (start to stick) with the village: we have better numbers to offer.

We are twelve all in all. 2 lions against 10 non-lions - and even if the Bear itself was not counted as a non-lion - it would still mean that we have at least 9 against 2 ratio when counting the winning conditions. So help us get the lions and you'll have better chances at winning.


The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.


EDIT: X'd with Lottie.

[satansaloser2005]

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

What with the midafternoon DL, inability to keep avatars straight when on my phone, and references I don't understand and therefore have to take at face value much to my apparent detriment, I have very little reason to keep playing at this point (other than the narrations, which have been fantastic, for which I heartily applaud our fair lady moddesses).

I have no other focus toDay. If we can't manage a more sensible lynch than the sham that was yesterDay, I have no further purpose here, and I'm done.

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?


I have a headache and it's currently super hard to look at my computer. I'll be back in a bit when I'm medicated and fed.

[Rikae]

I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

I don't necessarily disagree with the points you made, but this comes across with a self-conscious air. And how would Nog, or anyone else, manipulate you, unless you allow it?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

You are rather accomplished, not to mention modest.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

Oh, it's quite clear you're up to something. I'm not getting the idea it's an evil something, though.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Enca is one I've never played with before, which makes it difficult to interpret normal/odd behavior. She voted for Nog Day 1, me Day 2, and Kit yesterDay.
At any rate I think that Bear-hunting is less effective than Lion hunting at this point.

x/d with Sally, Rikae, Lottie, and Rikae again.