WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nogrod]

To add on my earlier comment on Lottie's suggestion... I'd say we stick to searching the treacherous Lannister Lions because with them we at least have a clue (MacLion) and we know their general modus operandi ie. we have some ideas about what kind of things to look.

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Okay. That's a scenario.

But it's also a scenario full of if's... like any scenario we might build on the Bear at this point, I'm afraid.


First there's the "if" of the lovers being under suspicion aka. some pressure to be careful with their kills.

Now it seems you say that "exactly because them choosing Cop shows they were under pressure", but that is indeed begging the question as to whether there could have been any other reasons for the lovers to pick Cop?


Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.


Do you see this problem?

Yes, I suppose so. I just found it strange that, of all the people, Cop - whose suspicions were so unique yesterDay - was killed. For most possible scenarios, it seems like we could find someone who would have better fit. (Though, admittedly, your Eomer-me theory wouldn't work with anyone else!) But, yeah, I guess it is a bit of a stretch.

[Nogrod]

I seem to be so happy making different explanations as to forget to underline in the end their point...

So the point of the above different scenarios was that there are so many reasons and non-reasons for different lover-combinations to pick Cop last Night you can't quite pin point one that looks reasonable and think you got them.



Another thing before I go to sleep (it's 3.30 AM).

As I've had myself some problems following all the kills by the different sides I checked the Nightkills and they are as follows:

Bear
N2 Wilwa (seer)
N3 Nerwen
N4 Cop

Lions
N2 G55
N3 Volo
N4 Gil

I'm not sure if I can see any pattern there - in either of the lists. But please see them more closely if you can.

But I could say, that it somehow looks like after the terrible first gameNight kill the Bear and the maiden fair have been hunting possible lay-low lions.


Whether I am right or wrong with that interpretation, I'd say to the lovers that you should keep sticking (start to stick) with the village: we have better numbers to offer.

We are twelve all in all. 2 lions against 10 non-lions - and even if the Bear itself was not counted as a non-lion - it would still mean that we have at least 9 against 2 ratio when counting the winning conditions. So help us get the lions and you'll have better chances at winning.


The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.


EDIT: X'd with Lottie.

[satansaloser2005]

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

What with the midafternoon DL, inability to keep avatars straight when on my phone, and references I don't understand and therefore have to take at face value much to my apparent detriment, I have very little reason to keep playing at this point (other than the narrations, which have been fantastic, for which I heartily applaud our fair lady moddesses).

I have no other focus toDay. If we can't manage a more sensible lynch than the sham that was yesterDay, I have no further purpose here, and I'm done.

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?


I have a headache and it's currently super hard to look at my computer. I'll be back in a bit when I'm medicated and fed.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

It is certainly sad to hear you're in stress and an unconvenient DL can be annoying. But even an impossible DL shouln't keep you from reading the thread at some other time - and fex. find the reasons I think most of us Kit-voters gave for voting her quite a several times. So let's not start a seventh round of reasons to vote Kit... you go and read them.

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

That said you're correct in saying the lions could have used the Kit-Wagon to their advantage as it is an easy place to hide when most of the people are of the same mind. Actually I think I already said earlier toDay, that my educated gut-feeling would be that one of the lions voted Kit and the other for someone else.

And anyway, the fact that someone voted Kit doesn't make that person a lion even if it is possible or even probable that at least one of them did so. Seven of the Kit-voters are alive and we only have two lions left, so probably 5 to 6 of the 7 are not lions...


Okay. I'm off for quite some while now but will be back later and willing to go back to the drawingboard and restarting from the only fair source of knowledge aka. Maclion and things around him.

I see Aganzir's rule-confirmation now... and it kind of confirms also my point about the order of importance. With two lions we still face a possibility the lovers might think of going to the dark side but if we get one more lion down... well it's basically really close we win as it makes a lot of sense for the lovers to join us then.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so RL got in the way of me posting yesterDay, but seriously, what happened? I'm going to reread yesterDay, but that vote seemed to come out of nowhere. I may be slightly overreacting because she was the only person I was almost certain was innocent, but still...

[Kath]

“Do I take it to mean that you actually want me to die, then?” asked Lommy, her face drooping.

“Yes,” said Eönwë.

“Quite,” said Lottie.

“Of course,” said Inzil.

“Why not?” said sally.

“That's how it is,” said Nog.

“I'm afraid so,” said Green.

“Fine,” said Lommy resolutely and laid down on some wilted rose petals that happened to be on the floor.

(“I'm gonna laaaay yooou dooown …” sang the two yellow haired musicians.)

“What are you doing?” asked Eomer.

“I'll lie here until I grow old and tired and die,” said Lommy.

(… on a beeeeeed of roooooseees.” The singing continued.)

“Oh for goodness sake,” Rikae said, “do stop being so dramatic. Would your beloved Stannis just lay down and die quietly?”

Enraged at this derision of her one true king, Lommy leapt back to her feet with a snarl and vaulted over the bar. Seconds later she had ripped down the antlers that adorned the wall and turned to brandish them at the waiting crowd.

“The Lord of Light will never die!” She cried. “His fire will burn forever. Let any who disagree step forward now and face me!”

No one stepped forward, but unfortunately for Rikae, everyone else quickly stepped back.

“Um.” She gulped, staring into Lommy’s wild eyes.

And there, in front of them all, apparently angered by the mention of her erstwhile king Stannis Baratheon whom she no longer served (if she ever truly had), Lommy began to change. She dropped to four feet, sprouting silvery hair and her nails and teeth rapidly elongating as she climbed atop the wooden counter.

Unfortunately for her, she dropped the antlers in the process. Not sparing a moment Rikae reached to grab them, and before Lommy had finished her transformation, she skewered the newly revealed lion right through the heart. Blood spurted out around the piercing bones as Lommy slowly slipped to the ground.

(For toniiiiight I sleeeeep …”

Collective breath held, the customers waited to see if anything further was coming. Would a lover, realising that Lommy’s death meant their own imminent demise, suddenly appear? But as time slowly passed, it became apparent that Lommy had simply been a murderous lion.

( … on a bed of horns.)

And with that refrain ringing in their ears, and their hearts lightened by the events of the evening, the patrons went off to bed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvR60Wg9R7Q

~ ~ ~

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3
Coppermirror, ordo - snacked on by bear on Night 4
Gil-Galad, ordo - served to the Inn in a pie of his own making on Night 4
Thinlómien, Lannister lion - antlered to death with a Bon Jovi backing track on Day 4

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Encaitare - random peasant
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Nogrod - house Swann
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Night - nocturnal beings do your work!

[Aganzir]

The golden lioness was now the sole champion for Lannister glory.
“Who should I kill tonight?” she said to herself, talking out loud to fill the emptiness the murders of her fellows had left. She padded back and forth across the kitchen.
“Should it be somebody I think is gifted? Should it be to protect myself? Should it be to avenge my fellows?”

Eventually, she decided on the latter. She took the stairs four at a time and reached Boro's room, which, despite having three beds, was empty but for him.

“Good morning, Boro! Rise and shine!” she said with a wicked gleam in her eyes.
“Urgh... Huh! What is it?” Boro was suddenly alert.
“A Lannister always pays his debts,” the golden lion purred.
“What is this madness?” Boro cried.
“My name is Lannister. You killed my fellows. Prepare to die,” the lion said, and with that, she jumped lightly atop Boro and pinned him down, unsheathing her razor sharp claws.
“So you are a Bolton,” she said. “I'll let you taste your own medicine.”
She slid one of her claws under Boro's skin, and he cried out in pain when she started moving it back and forth, separating the skin from the flesh with natural skill. After what felt like a very long time Boro finally went unconscious, and she continued her work without interruption.

When she was done, she picked up the skin, meaning to carry it down to the hall for all the Inn to see. But on her way to the stairs, there was a huge shape looming in front of her.

“Pray tell me,” it said, “why is Inziladun's bed empty?”
“How should I know?” said the lion. “Maybe he's a brother of the Nights Watch.”
“I think not,” said the bear.
“Well then, maybe he's trying to fool us both by sleeping elsewhere.”
“I think not,” said the bear.
“And now, excuse me, if I may...” said the lion.
But the bear stepped in front of her and said, “I think not.”

With a snarl, the lion threw the Boroskin on the bear's face and tried to turn and leap away, but unperturbed, he reached to grab her with his enormous paws. She swayed and tripped under his weight, and the bear used the situation to get a firmer hold on her. He sank his teeth into her neck, ripping through her jugular vein and pulling out her throat. Blood dripping from his mouth, he roared in triumph. Terrified faces appeared from behind the doorways, wondering what the awful noise was. The gruesome sight of a gigantic hairy beast, with the mutilated remains of a lion dangling from its jaws, met their eyes. Convinced they were all about to die, the remaining patrons ran down to the main room and desperately tried to get through the door, but it was to no avail. Thunderous footsteps approached from behind them, and they turned to see the bear leaping down the stairs.

But they need not have feared. The bear jumped straight at the door and crashed through the heavy wood (and through Rikae, who had the misfortune to be standing in his way and died straight away). The way was clear.

Encaitare was the first to move. She rushed out to embrace the bear and shower him with kisses, and the bear looked a little taken aback but answered her affections by licking her face with his rough tongue before turning into A Little Green.
“We want. No harm,” she said, her arm around Encai's waist. “We leave. You leave. Me love Encai.”

“Thank you, o gracious bear,” said Eönwë. He stepped forth and threw aside his cloak, and he was clad all in black underneath.

One by one, the patrons walked out and continued each in their own direction. Last of all came Eomer. No one had noticed his violet eyes that had, as of yet, no glint of madness.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3
Coppermirror, ordo - snacked on by bear on Night 4
Gil-Galad, ordo - served to the Inn in a pie of his own making on Night 4
Thinlómien, Lannister lion - antlered to death with a Bon Jovi backing track on Day 4
Boro, ordo - skinned by lion on Night 5
Rikae, ordo - dropped out on Night 5
Inziladun, Lannister lion - killed by bear on Night 5

Alive:
Eönwë, RANGER - house Royce
Encaitare, THE MAIDEN FAIR - random peasant
Loslote, ORDO - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green, THE BEAR - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22, ORDO - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim, TARGARYEN - house Stark
Nogrod, ORDO - house Swann
satansaloser2005, ORDO - random peasant

GAME OVER. INN WINS. LOVERS WIN.

[Rikae]

I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

Wait, what? Ok, my brain really is fried.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

Although it's a reasonable assumption that a Kit voter was a Lion, it isn't a certainty.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

I've already answered that. And how were you so certain she was innocent?

[Inziladun]

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?

[Nogrod]

Interesting... this is actually Rikae's first post of the Day:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Lottie corrected her on the next post... but well, it looks like she was here toDay with a firm intention to try and get me suspected.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...

Could you actually clarify this a bit Eönwë? Was that the "being in Mac's shoes" thingy or something else?

[Nogrod]

So we have the makings of a LommyWagon and InzilWagon. How do I get this deja vu -feeling?

Well, I can't deny I have suspected them both during the game, but I'd be actually rather leaning towards lynching Rikae at this point.

Of course if no one else is up to it it would be a waste of a vote.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

I don't necessarily disagree with the points you made, but this comes across with a self-conscious air. And how would Nog, or anyone else, manipulate you, unless you allow it?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

You are rather accomplished, not to mention modest.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

Oh, it's quite clear you're up to something. I'm not getting the idea it's an evil something, though.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Enca is one I've never played with before, which makes it difficult to interpret normal/odd behavior. She voted for Nog Day 1, me Day 2, and Kit yesterDay.
At any rate I think that Bear-hunting is less effective than Lion hunting at this point.

x/d with Sally, Rikae, Lottie, and Rikae again.