WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[Kath]

Lommy ... nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Prediction = wrong. I'm here!

Inzil said the Maniac is aware of their role in the Admin Thread, and I would agree with Legate that the Maniac isn't counted in the baddie count given their variable role.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Finally here. It's been a couple of really crazy days - and what Lommy said earlier rings a truth: I'm not going to be very active toDay (too tired of trying to get a real grasp - if there is anything to grasp with this number of posts anyway) - and the DL really is 5AM so all the Finns will most probably vote earlyish this time around.

The only things that kind of give off a slight ping on the radar thus far are:

1. Nerwen's early gun-happiness - which could be just a way of trying to get the ball rolling and therefore laudable.

2. How Boro's important point was totally lost under a more or less odd discussion of whether the maniac is playing for the goodies or baddies... where the former, I think, was the obvious answer - and seems to be it. But what Boro said merits repeating: as we don't want to lynch the maniac (the danger for us is in lynching her/him) but want her/him killed by the wolves by Night (to take one of them with her/him for sure) - the wolves might like to impersonate the maniac trying to avoid lynching that way.

So let's be extra careful with that.

Other than those things, I feel I have little to say right now. But I'll sit back and relax and try to come with something / anything more constructive in a moment - even if it doesn't seem too probable with this little to draw conclusions or speculate upon.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy ... nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Prediction = wrong. I'm here!

Darn, then I guess I can't steal Shasta's mantle just yet!

Glad to see the discussion (slowly) starting. It's also getting late here, but at least almost everybody has posted something already.

I'm not sure what to make of Boro's and Nogrod's underlined worry about wolves posing as the maniac. How do you do that except by fake revealing anyway? (And I see that as possibly being more beneficial to the villagers in the long run -

ACTUALLY WAIT

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?

Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

What say you?*

(* given the nature of the game, I should probably apologise for quoting movie!Aragorn)


edit: xed with Greenie's later post

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

To clarify, by "toDay we lynch two innocents" I mean that we lynch an innocent who takes another innocent with him/her - and by the way the maniac might even take a wolf with him/her. (Now that I'm thinking a little further I'm also aware the maniac could take the seer or ranger with him/her too but personally I think it would be worth the risk because we'd still get one wolf down.)

edit: xed with both posts

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

ACTUALLY WAIT

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?

Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

What say you?*

(* given the nature of the game, I should probably apologise for quoting movie!Aragorn)

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.


EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Leg and Lom.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.

Exactly my thoughts as well.

The maniac is a powerful weapon I'd rather not lose - and would be inclined to suspect anyone who suggest us to lose her/his ability to kill a wolf. A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

Agreed, although a known innocent the wolves can't kill is a definite asset especially towards the end of the game and could be the tie-breaker.

Originally Posted by Legate

d) the WWs have to decide whether they want to "make a trade" of one of their members during Night-killing the Maniac, or just leave the known innocent (a powerful force) around. It also leaves the Ranger free to guard someone else, because the Maniac can in the worst case just "trade" him/herself. Sounds fair!

Unfortunately, I don't think the wolves would want to trade a wolf for a known innocent.


edit: xed with Sally and Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The maniac is a powerful weapon I'd rather not lose - and would be inclined to suspect anyone who suggest us to lose her/his ability to kill a wolf. A known innocent early in the game is just one person we should not vote but whose view of things is as imperfect and indecisive as anyones.

I agree, although I also think it might be a simple matter of preference - play it safe but lose a potential advantage (Maniac reveals) or take a risk that might pay off or backfire (Maniac does not reveal). And while in this particular matter the "play it safe" -option would probably be the one the wolves would favour, it's also a valid opinion for an innocent, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to suspecting Lommy either - especially as her NO WAIT -part looked pretty honest to me.

Okay, the above was written before Lommy's later post where she tells us to scratch her plan. That makes me think better of her. (Also - classic Lommy flip-flopping! <3)


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, Sally and Kit

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

*poke* Does it help if I poke belatedly?

Legate, enlighten me if I'm being stupid but why would the Maniac revealing mean by default getting a wolf by Day 2? What if there is no counter-reveal nor a Night-kill of the known Maniac (which the wolves would be insane to do)?

I really need to get some sleep now (just when things are getting interesting, how typical). I don't feel comfortable voting anyone at this point given how little has happened, but I'd feel even less comfortable abstaining. The only thing that's caught my eye so far is nothing but a hunch, but here it is -

Originally Posted by Sally

That was informative, yet strangely unsettling.

Something rubs me the wrong way here, maybe it's this being the only comment she makes on the whole Maniac issue in a post otherwise comprised of banter. Safely noncommittal, leaving ends open, casually concerned but not really. Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing, so

++ Sally

Good night!

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.

[Coppermirror]

Summary/analysis part 2

This is going to be more hurried than the above part, unfortunately.

Greenie: comments on all the posts so far. It's unavoidably a little bantery but she also gives a limited analysis. The reasoning in #27 about how to catch someone "impersonating the Maniac" is confusing and I can't wrap my head around it. If anyone was trying to detract from the point about not wanting to lynch the Maniac, this looks the closest thing to it. But in #32 she makes a very clear and salient point about what the Maniac reveal issue comes down to, so on balance I think she wasn't trying to detract from it. Agrees with Nog about the advantages of the Maniac not revealing but also thinks it might come down to a matter of preference; very even-handed here. Thinks better of Lommy. Votes for Sally on a gut feeling.

Nothing stands out as suspicious in Greenie's posts, but she could easily be a wolf playing it safe. Her reasoning seems sound. The vote doesn't have a great basis but she gave her reasoning and there really wasn't much to go on.

Kath : Showed up briefly, but has basically been absent. This is bad. But I take it from things people have said that this is normal Kath behaviour, so I won't vote for her toDay based on this.

Boro: Banters. Brings up the Maniac, and that's the first non-bantery thing said up to that point. Doesn't post again until #63, where he comments on his speculation about the Maniac's allegiance before Inzil's clarification. Disagrees with the Maniac reveal plan. He likes Shasta, Nog and Greenie, is okay with Legate, and is troubled by Lommy. I can see his reasoning for the latter but I don't agree. He then votes for B]Lommy[/B].

It's hard to get a read on Boro, but he made an effort to get the discussion going at least. I won't vote for him toDay.

So in addition to my list above...
?????: Kath.
Neutral about: Greenie, Boro

I'm likely to vote for Legate soon.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen at #78 and all the posts after it.

[Coppermirror]

Vote count so far:

Greenie --> Sally(1)
Legate --> Boro(1)
Lommy --> Sally(2)
Nog --> Kitanna(1)
Boro --> Lommy(1)
Lottie --> Legate(1)
Cop--> Legate (2)

There's a tie between Sally and Legate.

Yet to vote: Kath, Nerwen, Sally, Shasta, Kitanna

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It comes down to whether we value a known innocent over possibly having the Maniac take down a wolf. I can't say.

Well that was so simply put that it twists my brain.

Arggh now that I'm thinking this further the game is (lovelily) frustratingly complex.

Because yes, it would be the best if the maniac is killed by the wolves.

But then again, how big are the chances that s/he gets targeted by the wolves? Like between 1/3 and 1/2. (Whereas a known innocent would be an immediate benefit, especially if it was accompanied by a known wolf.)

And now I wanted to say, scratch my plan, the maniac should just reveal if s/he's in danger of getting lynched, and suddenly I see where the concern about wolves pulling the maniac card is coming from.

Geez.

Well, scratch my plan anyway I guess, although in the end it's of course up to the maniac him/herself.

Werewolf is hard. Maybe I should shut up because I feel like flip-flopping is going to come out of my mouth (or keyboard) - if it already didn't.


edit: xed with Nogrod

[satansaloser2005]

Beg pardon. I just have to get this out of my system.

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly. We have zero control over who the maniac takes down, and while losing the maniac could also eliminate a wolf, it could also cost us our seer or our ranger (or, knowing my luck, me, which would be just as tragic ). Sure, we would have a known innocent and eliminate a bad lynch target, but the wolves may decide it's a good idea to target them straight away. Why would the baddies want to kick the bomb? Frankly, their odds of survival are better now.

The earlier the maniac is killed, the more likely their random target won't be a wolf (the wolves are 25% of the group right now, which will almost certainly grow as the game progresses). As the group gets smaller, killing the maniac becomes a bigger risk to the wolves, so if anything, I think exposing the maniac toDay would only lead to their death toNight, and I don't think that's a good idea.

I may have thought about this a little too much.


x'd since 29, as I was distracted by food

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Beg pardon. I just have to get this out of my system.

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly. We have zero control over who the maniac takes down, and while losing the maniac could also eliminate a wolf, it could also cost us our seer or our ranger (or, knowing my luck, me, which would be just as tragic ). Sure, we would have a known innocent and eliminate a bad lynch target, but the wolves may decide it's a good idea to target them straight away. Why would the baddies want to kick the bomb? Frankly, their odds of survival are better now.

The earlier the maniac is killed, the more likely their random target won't be a wolf (the wolves are 25% of the group right now, which will almost certainly grow as the game progresses). As the group gets smaller, killing the maniac becomes a bigger risk to the wolves, so if anything, I think exposing the maniac toDay would only lead to their death toNight, and I don't think that's a good idea.

I may have thought about this a little too much.


x'd since 29, as I was distracted by food

You should ignore all of this nonsense. I had it in my head that the maniac's ability was random regardless of when they were killed, but upon looking at the role again, I see I was mistaken. Whoops.

Well, ignore all of it but the link. That's still relevant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Wait a second. I think either I am missing what you are all talking about here, or you are all absolutely off-track yourselves.

The way I see the idea with the Maniac revealing is this:

1. Maniac reveals. ("Hello. I am the Maniac.")
Two possibilities follow:

2. Nothing happens - fine. We have a known innocent.
2a. During the Night the WWs decide to kill the Maniac, which essentially means trading one of their own for a known innocent (since the Maniac always kills a Wolf during the Night).
2b. During the Night(s) the WWs pass Maniac by, ergo leaving an immortal known innocent.

3. Or there is a counter-reveal. Now we have a known pair out of which obviously one is a Wolf and other a Maniac.
3a. We lynch one of them straightaway.
3aa. We lynch the Wolf, everyone is happy and we have a known innocent.
3ab. We lynch the Maniac, we lose him and one more person, who may be 3aba. an ordo, 3abb. a Wolf, 3abc. a Gifted. Whereas 3abc. is the most awful thing that might happen, 3abb. might statistically have at least some chance of success (though of course it's all just pure chance anyway) since one would assume the WWs would rather be voting for lynching the Maniac, not for their packmate. That would also leave some interesting remaining voters to scrutinize AND in either case, we'd have a known Wolf - the other person who wasn't lynched!!!

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I didn't realize the game had started! Nobody poked me .

[Nogrod]

EDIT: REferring here to Legate's scenario about how the different maniac-revelation scenarios would go...

I was basically thinking more subtler things - and these early Days... No pompous revelations but a wolf leaving nice little hints some others (not probably most of the people) might get to say s/he's the maniac, and then those few would start defending her/him in case of someone esle suspecting her/him, based on them catching the hints and not willing to see her/him lynched.

There is lot of that going on in a Werewolf game: that you have your thoughts and interpretations who might be bluffing or hinting at something, but you're not willing to share your reasons 100% openly becasue the wolves might not have noticed it or something like that.


EDIT: X'd since Shasta

[Thinlómien]

Don't I love this discussion...

Legate, you are saying basically exactly the same as I am, but leaving out the same vital and obvious fact: that we can get a wolf through the maniac if we leave him/her alone, if s/he reveals, we can't count on getting a wolf. (But we do get an innocent.)

Originally Posted by Legate

3b. We don't lynch them, but we keep them both around until some more convenient time. Which simply might be a tactical tool to use later during the game, but might also create dangerous confusion by pulling too much attention to itself, causing controversy ("to lynch or not to lynch", "I want to lynch XY because they suggest lynching this one or that one of the two revealed 'Maniacs'" etc...), simply too much chaos. Personally I would be fond of 3a if it came to such decicion. But not to get ahead of ourselves...

...what?? We should definitely NOT do this.

Originally Posted by Legate

...the bottom line being, I think if we want to do it, might be better to do it in a bigger village than in smaller village. So it might be good.

Agreed. Although, if I understood Sally right, she had a fair point in saying that the further the game goes, the bigger a threat the maniac is to the wolves, so maybe we want to keep him/her around to keep the wolves on their toes.

Also, if *I* was the maniac, I probably wouldn't reveal because being a known innocent is kind of boring.


edit: xed with everything after Legate's abc post

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As for the penguin's plan, I think it's a little too risky, honestly.

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Help, can someone tell me who the penguin is?

- Am writing up analysis.

Lommy.

[Loslote]

Okay, I'm back - sorry I was so quiet today, I had a long day of moving.

First, I would not suggest the Maniac reveals themselves toDay. The potential to catch a wolf unawares at Night is, I think, more valuable than the potential to catch a suicidal wolf - which is what that wolf would have to be to counter-reveal at this point.

I found Greenie's vote more innocent than not - there really wasn't much to go on when she voted, and I can see where she got her gut feeling vote from (I don't share that gut feeling, but I can understand it). Lommy strikes me as seeming innocent, too, by virtue of her slight flip-flop over her plan - that could either be a wolf anxious to avoid committing to a potentially suspicious plan or an innocent genuinely concerned that her idea might not have been as helpful as it had been intended. I'd be less inclined to vote for either of them.

Legate, for no real reason, strikes me as a little suspicious. Nothing vote-worthy, but his overall tone comes across as a little too careful for my taste.

Add in Nog, who has seemed mostly fine so far, and you've got the bulk of the posters thus far. Not a whole lot to go on, so if someone would say something incriminating soon, that'd be appreciated!

EDIT: xed since Cop

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I could be wrong but I'd guess her "gun-happiness" was just a normal "rule of three" post - obligatory Day 1 banter.

Yeah, personally I saw it also too just as Day 1 start banter, especially since it was really one of the first posts and nothing had happened before (and everything else in the posts around it was just Cleveland-banter).

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Yes, this is a valid point and, I think, an important one, but the thing is - how does the Maniac behave? How do you impersonate a Maniac? I mean, if the Maniac plays for the village they'd want to get Night-killed, right? Which would mean they might try to impersonate the Seer, which would mean the wolves would try to impersonate the Maniac who tries to impersonate the Seer who tries to impersonate... I mean, maybe you others can follow this, but I can't, at least not this tired. Anyway what I'm saying is that catching someone "impersonating the Maniac" is easier said than done.

In shorter and clearer version, WWs might only want to impersonate a Maniac by saying "I am a Maniac!", or that's how I see it. Simply a way e.g. for a known Wolf to escape the noose, just like they have been doing with Seers for ages.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

ACTUALLY WAIT

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?

Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

What say you?*

(* given the nature of the game, I should probably apologise for quoting movie!Aragorn)

Hey, that actually might not be a bad idea at all! Of course it means exposing an innocent (a known innocent), but it

a) leaves the one known innocent alive for at least the time being
b) eliminates the risk of accidentally shooting down two innocents by lynching the Maniac during Day,
c) puts the WWs in front of the decision: to either counter-reveal or just leave the village with extra security and known innocent,
d) the WWs have to decide whether they want to "make a trade" of one of their members during Night-killing the Maniac, or just leave the known innocent (a powerful force) around. It also leaves the Ranger free to guard someone else, because the Maniac can in the worst case just "trade" him/herself. Sounds fair!

By all means... sounds really good. Gotta think about it for a bit still, but sounds really good!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

2. How Boro's important point was totally lost under a more or less odd discussion of whether the maniac is playing for the goodies or baddies... where the former, I think, was the obvious answer - and seems to be it. But what Boro said merits repeating: as we don't want to lynch the maniac (the danger for us is in lynching her/him) but want her/him killed by the wolves by Night (to take one of them with her/him for sure) - the wolves might like to impersonate the maniac trying to avoid lynching that way.

Since the Maniac's role pretty much revolves around dying to fullfill the role, who is to say they'll align with the village? A hunter can at least chose who they think is evil, Maniac is subject to the whims of the mod-god.

I kind of see the Maniac as a potential cobbler/hunter hybrid, a wildcard as Boro put it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the maniac to reveal RIGHT NOW?

Ta da, we have a known innocent. Or, if a wolf rises to the bait and fake reveals, the worst thing that can happen is that toDay we lynch two innocents and toMorrow we lynch a wolf, which is still a good scenario for us.

Interesting...

Originally Posted by Lommy

To clarify, by "toDay we lynch two innocents" I mean that we lynch an innocent who takes another innocent with him/her - and by the way the maniac might even take a wolf with him/her. (Now that I'm thinking a little further I'm also aware the maniac could take the seer or ranger with him/her too but personally I think it would be worth the risk because we'd still get one wolf down.)

I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched. We lose three innocents before Day 2 starts. And there's only twelve villagers right?

But if the Maniac's reveal is believed we do have a known innocent. And in such a small village it could be dangerous to wait for a known innocent to appear.

I'd say the risks and the reward on this plan are probably about equal.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Since the Maniac's role pretty much revolves around dying to fullfill the role, who is to say they'll align with the village? A hunter can at least chose who they think is evil, Maniac is subject to the whims of the mod-god.

I kind of see the Maniac as a potential cobbler/hunter hybrid, a wildcard as Boro put it.

The Maniac is on the village's side. The Mod had said it several times loud and clear.

I don't know if this guarantees us a wolf lynch on Day 2 though. Say our Maniac reveals and is not believed and lynched. We lose three innocents before Day 2 starts. And there's only twelve villagers right?

But if the Maniac's reveal is believed we do have a known innocent. And in such a small village it could be dangerous to wait for a known innocent to appear.

I'd say the risks and the reward on this plan are probably about equal.

It is definitely risky. But Day 2 Wolf lynch is basically guaranteed with this. See my elaborate scheme above Because if the Maniac reveals, then I guess he/she should be believed unless there's a counter-reveal, no? I mean, no reason to lynch somebody who comes forward saying "I am the Maniac!" with no counter-reveal. And if there IS a counter-reveal, well, then one of them is a Wolf and the other is not. Simple as that. Yes, the worst ratio is losing 2 innocents to 1 Wolf, which I think is still better for the village (if you take the percentage of WWs:innocents in total, if they lose one, it hurts them more than if we lose one), especially in the beginning, OR it creates potentially an even more powerful tactical advantage - one more known piece on board, eliminating a whole one bundle of decisions we have to make (a bundle of decisions regarding one person).

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The Maniac is on the village's side. The Mod had said it several times loud and clear.

I honestly don't remember reading that. I must be blind. Scratch everything I said in my last post about that. Sorry.

[Coppermirror]

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

[Nerwen]

Ugh! Scratch what I just said– we *are* 5:3! I was looking at the wrong post before. (That’s what I get for trying to work and play WW simultaneously.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

I concur– but that’s also why this might actually be a rather good move for a wolf under suspicion.

Anyway, I said I was going to do that Lottialysis. I had a whole lot of things come up, but maybe I can find time now.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

An unrevealed Maniac is more valuable than a revealed one, increasingly so as the game progresses, but a revealed Maniac certainly beats a lynched Maniac, especially on a day when a bad lynch most likely means the end of the game. That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

If Kitanna is really the Maniac, and she gets lynched the way she initially suggested, she's more likely to hit an innocent than a wolf. The odds aren't quite as awful as I thought at first glance, but it's still not a good idea.

Not many people have shown up yet toDay, so there's still the possibility of there being a counter-reveal from the real Maniac if Kitanna's a wolf.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

I was a lynch candidate D1 and D2. I was wrong about Legate. I was wrong about Nog. After that I was unlikely to be mistaken as the seer and killed in the night. It would be easy for the wolves to get me lynched today. I'd say I was in adequate danger.

[Nerwen]

Lottie, Day One

#7. Banter.


#64. Opposes Lommy's suggestion that the Maniac reveal. Finds Greenie's vote “more innocent than not”. Lommy also seems innocent, Legate seems a little suspicious “for no real reason”. Nog seems “mostly fine”. Joking requests that some say something incriminating.


#79. Vote-post (Legate 1)

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'm really not thrilled with any of the options so far. I've still got a bad feeling about Legate, but I don't have anything concrete, and I'm not completely comfortable voting for him. I'd be more comfortable with him than with the other three on the table, though, so...

++Legate

Comments: The wording of that vote-post could well have looked like a Seer making sure no-one would think she had actually dreamed the person she voted. Only… apparently not, since the wolves killed Greenie instead.

Nothing much there otherwise– she only mentioned one still-living person (Lommy), and only in passing.


Lottie, Day Two

#103. Doubts the wolves thought Greenie was the Seer (theory already put forward by Coppermirror at #97 and Lommy at #98); believes she was instead chosen as a safe kill.


#134. Flags Kath's vote-post/suspicion list at #128.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So this caught my eye as being...off. I don't know Kath's playing style very well, but this post of hers came off as being at once flippant - "they are both clearly self preservation votes", "I rather feel lynching sally or Kitanna would give more information" - and, at the same time, almost grasping at suspicions. For one thing, her suspicions about Kit and Sally are flimsy at best, but she phrases them as though they're simple and clean-cut and obvious. She mentions Nog, Nerwen, and Lommy, but doesn't actually say anything about them - basically a "I thought they might be suspicious but I don't know" kind of statement that doesn't do anyone much good. I'm not at all happy with this vote, and Kath has definitely jumped to the top of my list.

#138. Makes a list.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Suspicious About
Kath - I've mentioned my problems with her vote earlier.
Coppermirror - Hasn't posted all that much, but what he has posted has been really non-committal. He voted Sally just because of Greenie's death, which could have been a wolf planning for an easy frame and not expecting the village to pass up the lure.

Unsure About
Nogrod - I don't necessarily suspect him, because he hasn't done anything suspicious, but I definitely don't trust him either.
Boro - He doesn't seem like normal Boro to me, but that might even be a sign of his innocence - he's normally a much more subtle wolf.
Nerwen - I haven't got a real read on her yet, but she certainly hasn't done anything to make me suspicious.
Shasta - I don't have a read on him. Hopefully his schedule will allow for more psychicing toMorrow!
Sally - I feel better about her than not, but I'm not willing to move her down a level just yet.

Feeling Pretty Decent About
Kitanna - I know she's been under some suspicion thus far, but I don't see the reason for it. She looks pretty good to me.
Lommy - She's looked innocent since Day One, which should maybe be worrying, but I'm comfortable with her for now.

Comment: Could this have been taken as a Seer’s list? It might point to either Kitanna and Lommy as innocent, or Kath and Coppermirror as wolves.

After this, she becomes very active in the “Seer-Greenie” debate.


#145.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Originally Posted by Kitanna
You must think me a mighty foolish wolf to so blatantly defend Sally as a packmate.

I don't know if Sally is actually guilty, but I know I'm not. And I don't think Sally is a foolish enough wolf to night kill someone who leads to clearly to her. So I'm not sold on her being guilty right now.
Yes. Yes, that exactly. Everyone keeps insisting that Greenie was a Seer kill, and I don't buy it at all. If she was a Seer kill, it was a dumb move on the wolves' part - if she was a Seer kill, then the wolf would have to be Sally, and we all know that. It's obvious. It would be the most obvious Night kill a wolf could make, and I do not think Sally would have done it. You know what it could have been? An easy frame. I mentioned Cop earlier as potentially having killed Greenie during the Night with the intention of using that death to frame Sally earlier - it looks like that argument could apply to Nog and maybe even Lommy as well.

#146. Emphatically disagrees with Nogrod (who at #147 suggests the kill implicates Sally

Originally Posted by Lottie

Why would the wolves have thought she was a Seer at all? She didn't talk like a Seer. If anything, if she were a Seer, I'd read her vote post as saying in giant neon letters, "I DIDN'T DREAM SALLY THIS IS NOT A DREAM”:

[Quotes Greenie]

"Nothing but a hunch" "I don't feel comfortable voting, but I'd feel less comfortable abstaining" "Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing" These are not the things a Seer would say if she had dreamed a wolf. These are things a Seer would say if she wanted to make sure, if she died overNight, no one would think she'd dreamed this person. I in no way find this adequate reason to kill Sally.

#151. (Replying to Nog at #149, #112.)

Originally Posted by Lottie

Making a list is Seerish? Enough to get her killed? I don't think so. Anyway, if she were making a Seer List Post, I think she'd have committed more than just "Something there?". Something there says to me, "That caught my eye. Better watch her" not "SHE'S A WOLF I DReAMED IT". And a Seer trying to cover her knowledge? Right. So what you're saying is, "I know it doesn't look like she looked like a Seer but the wolves thought she was a Seer BECAUSE she didn't look like a Seer you know what I'm saying" and I really do think you're trying to frame Sally at this point, because this is just too weak an argument, especially from you. So...

++Nog

#152. Makes a tally.

And that’s it. Self-evidently, she was wrong about Nogrod. But could she have been right about Sally– i.e. could her heated defence of Sally have been taken as evidence that she’d dreamed her (innocent)? Or were we meant to think that (and something on the list is the real reason)?

EDIT:formatting.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm on my way to work for the day. I haven't had a chance to read a thing, but I'll do so when I return four hours or so before the DL. *poofs*

[Boromir88]

It's going to be another one of those days where I have to vote early...although not as early as the last day.

Thoughts are...I believe Kit's reveal. It's a must to get a wolf today but at least there's still all 3 gifteds to work and I think at this point in the game it is best to have a revealed maniac. It's not ideal but best when we need to get a wolf today.

[A Little Green]

Almost did a Kath but didn't, thanks to Lommy for reminding me we had started! Anyway, I'm super tired so I will unfortunately have to be quite brief toDay, but should be around more toMorrow if I make it that far.

Right-o. As far as I can tell -

Nerwen discusses both Clevelands and Maniacs. Also mentions the "rule of three", which I suppose somebody has to do in every game.
Sally also mostly banters this far, and calls Inzil's rules clarification "informative, yet strangely unsettling". Something there?
Coppermirror remains on the Cleveland sector for now.
Loslote, while not discussing Cleveland, has only posted one early banter post toDay, I assume she'll be back.
Kitanna confuses me because I got the impression that she posted a lot of substance even though she mainly answered banterish posts and commented shortly on the Maniac.
Lommy adequately summarised an average Day 1 and puts in a healthy Lommy amount of AIEEEs and exclamation marks. But she's also the one to ask Inzil for clarification about the Maniac.
Legate has not posted a single novel yet! Instead, one banter about goats and technology and some other confusing stuff, and one post speculating about the Maniac. I don't really understand his "brain-shortcut" (though love that word!!) but it's probably not very relevant since it's related to speculation on a topic that was later clarified by the mod.
Nogrod hasn't posted yet but he's sitting across the table from me and typing forcefully so I bet his post will appear before mine.
Shasta isn't here either, I hope he knows the game is on!
Greenie is happy to be playing werewolf!
Kath is cute. She's also sensible about the Maniac.
Boro gets the credit for the first fully on-topic post on the thread, ie. rules speculation on the Maniac. His original interpretation is rather different from mine, and apparently that of many others as well. Could be he's just an independent thinker (we know he is), could be he's scheming, could be he was trying to provoke discussion? Anyhow I'm not worried about him at the moment.


EDIT: x-ed with Noggie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

1. Nerwen's early gun-happiness - which could be just a way of trying to get the ball rolling and therefore laudable.

I could be wrong but I'd guess her "gun-happiness" was just a normal "rule of three" post - obligatory Day 1 banter.

Originally Posted by Nog

2. How Boro's important point was totally lost under a more or less odd discussion of whether the maniac is playing for the goodies or baddies... where the former, I think, was the obvious answer - and seems to be it. But what Boro said merits repeating: as we don't want to lynch the maniac (the danger for us is in lynching her/him) but want her/him killed by the wolves by Night (to take one of them with her/him for sure) - the wolves might like to impersonate the maniac trying to avoid lynching that way.

So let's be extra careful with that.

Yes, this is a valid point and, I think, an important one, but the thing is - how does the Maniac behave? How do you impersonate a Maniac? I mean, if the Maniac plays for the village they'd want to get Night-killed, right? Which would mean they might try to impersonate the Seer, which would mean the wolves would try to impersonate the Maniac who tries to impersonate the Seer who tries to impersonate... I mean, maybe you others can follow this, but I can't, at least not this tired. Anyway what I'm saying is that catching someone "impersonating the Maniac" is easier said than done.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Yes, this is a valid point and, I think, an important one, but the thing is - how does the Maniac behave? How do you impersonate a Maniac? I mean, if the Maniac plays for the village they'd want to get Night-killed, right? Which would mean they might try to impersonate the Seer, which would mean the wolves would try to impersonate the Maniac who tries to impersonate the Seer who tries to impersonate...

Love you!

And you're right. It is hard to say. But...

But there might arise a situations where it would not be that complicated. I was not calling for a definitive plan to follow certain kind of acts but to keep our eyes open where that might be plausible (naturally it's not wise to specualte too much on those beforehand).


EDIT: X'd with Lommylings

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

There isn't really much to go on with, indeed, I will just observe on the observations, then. I guess it would be interesting, in the light of any future events, to see the interactions or how people perceive others here.

I like Nogrod's pointing out of the thing Boro said about the Maniac (that WWs might be impresonating him/her), but then again since the Mod has confirmed how the role works, it's essentially the same thing as impersonating any Gifted in any normal game. But of course, it's probably the best way for a Wolf to avoid lynch. Unless they also want to flush out a Seer and pretend that they are the Seer instead. I guess that might bring some interesting dilemmas to the Wolves who are under threat of lynching and consider reveal, which might play nicely to the village's hand.

I also like Greenie's summary of people, but rather for its amusement value. The only thing I find remarkable is her "buddying-up" attitude towards Boro and (very, very slightly) Kath. But I guess that would be just more interesting in hindsight if the situation seemed like it was relevant (e.g. Greenie turning out to be a Wolf or somesuch), for now there's really nothing much overall.

I am definitely going to post here still later, in the hope of reading something more before that and thus being able to make some more reasonable list of everyone and get some ideas from it. I wanted to say "third time's the charm", except that I think that would be already my fourth post, so anyway, before the next time I post I just hope more people would show up so I can post something substantial based on that. Also, with other fellow Finns, not going to stay up too late. So hope people just are around and post a bit...

EDIT: x-ed with second Greenie, Lommy and Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

since the Mod has confirmed how the role works, it's essentially the same thing as impersonating any Gifted in any normal game.

Well yes, and no.

I think the maniac is actually very interesting character in this game because s/he can deliver a certain kill if the wolves try to get at her/him during the Night. That is not usual. Also - as the other side of the coin - s/he is dangerous to us exactly lynched: Legate actually himself mentioned earlier thet the manic can take down a wolf as well if lyched - which is true, but something I don't think lessens the danger considerably.

So this maniac is - to my mind - no regular game-character and thus impersonating the maniac would have different dynamics from impersonating some other roles more regular to the game.


EDIT: Sally: Check the rules! The maniac delivers a certain wolf-kill if targeted by Night!