Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.


I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

You mean this sort of thing?

Originally Posted by Lottie

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first

[A Little Green]

!!!

For me, this is pretty straightforward. I know Lottie is lying, so by definition Shasta has to be telling the truth.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eonwe's reaction to finding himself supposedly in the same situation I'm in now is very interesting. If you know somebody is lying because what they say is simply not true (as would be the case if he was innocent), how convincing their tone is should have nothing to do with it. If somebody tells you that bananas are purple, however convincingly they say it shouldn't be of any consequence at all since you already know they're lying. Eonwe is ostensibly in the same situation as I am, and maybe it's a difference of temperament or personality but his reaction was pretty far from what seems natural to me in a situation like this.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Also - what? Is this a confession? I'm confused.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

[A Little Green]

Also, I don't know how much I'll be able to be around toDay, so just in case (and to get it out of the way) -

++ Eonwe

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

[Nerwen]

Day Three

Lottie

#251.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This is–

1. The post Lottie points to as evidence for her dreams (#315).

2. The post she says made her “panic” that she had given herself away to the wolves (#303), #308). Also, I presume, the post to which she attributes her supposed Ranger-protection (#303).

Quite a lot to get out of that, I think.

(By the way– can somebody kindly explain to me exactly what Steve has said or done in the course of this game that made him look so shiningly innocent? Or even innocent at all? Really not seeing it.)


#252

Originally Posted by Lottie

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

This, while consistent with Lottie’s account of her dreams, also would neatly explain why, if in fact a wolf, she did not later carry out her (presumed) earlier plan of naming Cop as her dream– she could hardly have done so after actually saying “we shouldn’t consider her a known innocent”. (As for why a wolf-Lottie might say this in the first place– well, by this point there were probably getting to be a few too many almost-known-innocents around.)


#261.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

More buddying up to Lommy, looks like.


#275. Casts fourth vote on Boro.

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.

Or is this supposed to be where Seer-Lottie blew her cover? But Lommy and McCaber had both already given being “pretty sure Eönwë is innocent” as their sole reason in their vote-posts on Boro– hers is just a paraphrase of theirs.



Shasta

#221.

Originally Posted by Shasta

[Quotes my post to Steve (#220) regarding Echo’s death]
Basically, this. QFT.

I should be back soon with some actual comments, but this just begged for a "^" post.

#247.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.

#248. [Replying to Cop’s doubts of McCaber ]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

The rest of the post is an analysis of the Nerwen-Steve spat. It is too long to quote in full. Shasta supports my reasoning and is “leaning towards” Steve being a wolf. He does, however, conclude with this comment on my vote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

Which is certainly a peculiar thing for a Seer to say about a dreamed innocent.

#259.
A response to Steve’s response (#256) to his previous post. Again, states agreement with my point on Kath, defends me against Steve’s “accusatory” tone and states a belief that Steve may be '"finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.’


#260. [Replying to Lommy at #258– the same post quoted by Lottie at #261.]
You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?


#269. Vote post, and reply to Lommy at #265.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

#270.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thanks hun.
No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

#273.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

#277.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

Well, indeed. I mean, if he’s a wolf he must have been laughing his head off at this point.

I mean– what happened?!


[After Steve cast the fifth and final vote for Boro]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Note: technically X’d with Greenie, but saw her vote-post before finishing.

EDIT: added omitted comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Yes– it’d be like when the Cursed Villager is Turned– no traces to the last wolf because he/she was innocent before that. Perhaps worse, since Saruman can select the player.

Nasty thought here: I wonder if it works on gifteds?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Fine. You can lynch Steve toDay - we have enough innocents to be able to afford that - but when he turns out to be an Ordo, lynch Greenie toMorrow.