Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I love this situation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but now, we have either Shasta and Greenie sorcerers, or Eönwë and Lottie sorcerers.

All of the rest of us:
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lommy

should now be considered known innocents, I think. Unless something very interesting is going on.

I'm going to go and take a good look over things. We need to get Saruman toDay if we possibly can.

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

So if Lottie is the Aura Reader, she never dreamed of me. Hmm. I'd previously assumed she had; that's why I thought she was the Aura Reader before.

I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus.

That’s fair enough. On the other hand, this–

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nope. If I'd dreamed you, I would've been much more vocal in my support of you - if I recall correctly, when you revealed, I said something along the lines of "well, I guess we can trust her, for now, but don't get too comfortable."

– perhaps answers my concluding question. We’ll see.

[Nerwen]

Day Two

Lottie

#107.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Maybe this could have been seen as a Seer hint? For the most part, though, Zil was fairly non-committal. He certainly didn't jump in guns blazing saying "x is evil", so I think he was probably a no-trace kill.

I have said (#148) why I don’t like this post, but here it is again:

Originally Posted by me

Thing is, as I said in my analysis of Zil, his posts taken together might well have given off a gifted vibe, but that one by itself actually doesn’t look much like a hint. Through paranoid eyes, this looks rather like someone who has, in fact, studied Zil’s posts in detail, but wants to appear as if she hasn’t– and is also trying a bit of misdirection.

#115.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Echo, while frustratingly (and, it seems, purposefully) vague, does come off to me at least as being simply a nervous newbie. Unless he/she (did we ever get clarification on that point?) does something glaringly eeeeeevil, I'm inclined to give him/her an extension on his/her newbie pass.

Holby alarms me, but I get the impression that's just her style. Makes me nervous, though - it's too easy to hide under that.

Though I didn’t say actually as much, the first part of this struck me as being, at best irresponsible– letting the newbie think it’s all right to go on playing like that. The other one, on our known wolf is... well, it’s ambiguous.

#147.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If you are a sorcerer, then you know who the other sorcerers are - and, by extension, you know the other sorcerers aren't. If you want to suspect anyone other than your fellow sorcerers, you have to fake suspicion.

On another note, I don't know what to think of Holby anymore. Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused.

YesterDay, Kath was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.

So why hadn’t Lottie dreamed Kath the Night before, if Kath was her “strongest suspicion?”


#160. regrets lack of activity; comments on McCaber’s reveal:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?

Originally Posted by #188

Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.

#200. Casts the first vote on Holby.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.

Shasta

#118.
Long post.

Finds Greenie dubious because she “elected not to say anything” regarding the number of villains and for her “delayed reaction” to Echo’s vote on Kath (that is, Greenie first simply reminded Echo to bold the vote, then only later reacted with shock to its contents).
Believes a post of Cop’s that Lommy found suspect was just “Cop’s brand of humour. very dry, that one.” Like Lottie, finds Cop’s controversial posts of the previous Day to be more innocent than not, though he also comments,

Originally Posted by Shasta

Although this bit was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser -
Quote:

I honestly can't tell if the fact that she considered how saying that would make her look before posting it makes her look better or worse.

He spends some time making a case against Legate (!), whom he doesn’t seem to realise is dead (?). In the course of this he several times he approvingly cites points made by Lommy.

Shasta concludes his post with this:

Lottie's vote post at #97 makes me uneasy. The tone is almost as if she's grateful her vote choices have been narrowed down, and that's never something an innocent actively wants.

Holby, by contrast, has a much more panicky feel to it (context - Lottie's post was seven minutes before DL, Holby's was five, so both extremely close to the end of the day, but Lottie was pretty calm about the whole thing.) I would, however, like to know why Holby found Legate more suspicious than Cop or Kath. I don't thinK I remember her being suspicious of him prior.

And Eonwe casts the deciding vote for Legate over Kath. He mentions Legate as a possible wolf earlier, so no real surprises there. Definitely worth a look later though, depending on what Kath turns out to be if she dies.

Echo makes the first post of Day 2 and mentions four people in his/her post - none of which are Kath. Curiouser and curiouser.

Curiouser and curiouser is right! How could either a wolf OR Seer not be aware of who had been lynched?!


#155.
Another long post.

My refutation (#121) of one of his points against Greenie, and Greenie’s self-defence (#122) are “fair enough”, but “I just think the two posts taken together look strange”.

Banter with Lommy.

Disputes Boro’s contention (#137) that Holby’s weird list of the Day before was in itself suspicious:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't know that I buy this. I've seen things said purely in jest taken as "evidence" before, and I think it's very rarely ended well.

Agrees with Boro that Lottie’s “I’m inclined to think they’re both innocent” statement looks bad. [Note: Boro speaks of this as having referred to Lommy and Legate; actually it was Greenie and Legate]

Disagree with Kath (#138) that Cop’s vote for Legate was fishy, pointing out that Cop needed to save herself. Is curious, though, why Cop herself didn’t mention this as a reason. Supports Kath’s suggestion to Echo (that he/she should star giving clearer answers).

Responding to Greenie’s suspicion list (#151):

Originally Posted by Shasta

So you aren't going to attempt to fry the lone fish in your fourth (and most suspicious) category? You're not really helping me think you innocent, Greenie.

Note mild defence of Holby. On the other, the spat with Greenie doesn’t look that much like wolf-on-wolf to me– though who can be sure?

#176 [Replying to a comment by Lommy regarding his strange mistake about Legate]

Originally Posted by Shasta

No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

#213. Self-votes (the last vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by Shasta

I took a nap. My bad.

++Shasta

Well! More Ugh! Shasta’s mistake about Legate is bizarre, coming from a non-ordo of any stripe– yet he must be one.

Their votes are interesting. Shasta could have voted Holby, or could have tied Cop with Holby, negating the lynch– but did neither of these things. Lottie did actually vote the wolf– however, as Boro (I think) pointed out, it was a classic set-up for a “safe” vote.

At this point, by their own accounts, our rival Seers had had the following dreams:

Lottie: Nobody, Me.
Shasta: Me, Lommy. (Should I be flattered to be getting so much attention?)

That coming Night, “Seer” Lottie supposedly dreamed Steve and “Seer”-Shasta dreamed Boro.

Problematic, in both cases. As Shasta was, for all intents and purposes, silent on Day One, we obviously can’t make any comparison between dream-choices and stated suspicions that Day. On Day Two, the best that can be said is that he does nothing that would actually contradict his account– he doesn’t actually seem to have left any clues to his dreams at all. And I have to wonder why he didn’t go on to dream Greenie, his chief suspect at this point.

Lottie’s case is similar– but quite a bit more so. She lists me, her (supposed) sole dream at this point, as “likely innocent”– but couples my name with those of McCaber and Greenie. Meanwhile, apart from the rather sudden vote on Holby, her only real suspicion either Day was Kath, whom she never dreamed either Night.

[Coppermirror]

++Eönwë

I'm in agreement with the arguments in favour of lynching him here. And we'll be okay even if we're wrong.

[Eönwë]

Well, I suppose I might as well:

++Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Well, good luck, village.

[Loslote]

++Steve

Good Night, village. Good Night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I've woken back up. Anyone feel like getting me up to speed?

[satansaloser2005]

After the day's events, no one could sleep. The wizards remained vigilant, staring up at the black sky as they waited, their ears searching for the slightest sound, the faintest hint that someone may be moving.

The sound they heard, however, was far from faint.

Everyone leapt to their feet, following the sound of two women screaming until they came upon Greenie and Copper . Unfortunately, they were too late.

As their friends approached, both lasses fell to the ground, their bodies limp, their hands empty. Part of Greenie's cloak had been burned away, its absence revealing a dark hand print. Copper lay beside her, her robes mussed and ripped from a struggle. She, too, bore an unnatural hand print on her body, but hers was around her neck.


Casting:
Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
McCobbler
Lottie
Lommy

Cast aside:
Sally (moddess)
Morsul (collateral damage)
Legate (wizard, lynched Day 1)
Dun (wizard, slain Night 2)
Holby (sorcerer, lynched Day 2)
Echo (wizard wizard, silenced Night 3)
Boro (wizard prince, lynched Day 3)
Steve (wizard, lynched Day 4)
Cop (killed Night 4)
Greenie (killed Night 4)

[Coppermirror]

Ahaha, I only got to take out a wolf at a time when I knew for certain who they were.

Shasta and Greenie, why did you choose to night kill me then, knowing that I could be the Pact Mage and that I would definitely get one of you if I was?

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.


I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

You mean this sort of thing?

Originally Posted by Lottie

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first

[A Little Green]

!!!

For me, this is pretty straightforward. I know Lottie is lying, so by definition Shasta has to be telling the truth.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eonwe's reaction to finding himself supposedly in the same situation I'm in now is very interesting. If you know somebody is lying because what they say is simply not true (as would be the case if he was innocent), how convincing their tone is should have nothing to do with it. If somebody tells you that bananas are purple, however convincingly they say it shouldn't be of any consequence at all since you already know they're lying. Eonwe is ostensibly in the same situation as I am, and maybe it's a difference of temperament or personality but his reaction was pretty far from what seems natural to me in a situation like this.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Also - what? Is this a confession? I'm confused.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

[A Little Green]

Also, I don't know how much I'll be able to be around toDay, so just in case (and to get it out of the way) -

++ Eonwe

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

[Nerwen]

Day Three

Lottie

#251.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This is–

1. The post Lottie points to as evidence for her dreams (#315).

2. The post she says made her “panic” that she had given herself away to the wolves (#303), #308). Also, I presume, the post to which she attributes her supposed Ranger-protection (#303).

Quite a lot to get out of that, I think.

(By the way– can somebody kindly explain to me exactly what Steve has said or done in the course of this game that made him look so shiningly innocent? Or even innocent at all? Really not seeing it.)


#252

Originally Posted by Lottie

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

This, while consistent with Lottie’s account of her dreams, also would neatly explain why, if in fact a wolf, she did not later carry out her (presumed) earlier plan of naming Cop as her dream– she could hardly have done so after actually saying “we shouldn’t consider her a known innocent”. (As for why a wolf-Lottie might say this in the first place– well, by this point there were probably getting to be a few too many almost-known-innocents around.)


#261.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

More buddying up to Lommy, looks like.


#275. Casts fourth vote on Boro.

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.

Or is this supposed to be where Seer-Lottie blew her cover? But Lommy and McCaber had both already given being “pretty sure Eönwë is innocent” as their sole reason in their vote-posts on Boro– hers is just a paraphrase of theirs.



Shasta

#221.

Originally Posted by Shasta

[Quotes my post to Steve (#220) regarding Echo’s death]
Basically, this. QFT.

I should be back soon with some actual comments, but this just begged for a "^" post.

#247.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.

#248. [Replying to Cop’s doubts of McCaber ]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

The rest of the post is an analysis of the Nerwen-Steve spat. It is too long to quote in full. Shasta supports my reasoning and is “leaning towards” Steve being a wolf. He does, however, conclude with this comment on my vote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

Which is certainly a peculiar thing for a Seer to say about a dreamed innocent.

#259.
A response to Steve’s response (#256) to his previous post. Again, states agreement with my point on Kath, defends me against Steve’s “accusatory” tone and states a belief that Steve may be '"finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.’


#260. [Replying to Lommy at #258– the same post quoted by Lottie at #261.]
You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?


#269. Vote post, and reply to Lommy at #265.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

#270.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thanks hun.
No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

#273.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

#277.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

Well, indeed. I mean, if he’s a wolf he must have been laughing his head off at this point.

I mean– what happened?!


[After Steve cast the fifth and final vote for Boro]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Note: technically X’d with Greenie, but saw her vote-post before finishing.

EDIT: added omitted comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Yes– it’d be like when the Cursed Villager is Turned– no traces to the last wolf because he/she was innocent before that. Perhaps worse, since Saruman can select the player.

Nasty thought here: I wonder if it works on gifteds?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Fine. You can lynch Steve toDay - we have enough innocents to be able to afford that - but when he turns out to be an Ordo, lynch Greenie toMorrow.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought as much.

More specifically, I thought she had probably sent me a few specific "I'm the Aura Reader and I know you're gifted" hints. But if she's telling the truth those would have to be coincidental. And if she's a sorcerer she wouldn't have been able to guess...probably.

[Kath]

Right, after yesterDay's debacle on my part I am posting and voting right now to make sure we don't end up with any stupid modfires.

++EONWE

The only way to find out which of these two are telling the truth is to lynch one of their suggestions. Now Shasta says this one is guilty, Lottie says he is innocent. Therefore lynching Eonwe tells us who the Seer is. If it is Shasta then the pool of potential wolves is much reduced by his dreams. If it is Lottie then we know exactly who to lynch toMorrow. So to me this option makes the most sense.

This is likely to be my only post toDay as I think I am out until past deadline.