Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Shasta

So you*aren't*going to attempt to fry the lone fish in your fourth (and most suspicious) category? You're not really helping me think you innocent,Greenie.

I have formed some kind of an opinion on Cop - or, at least, I have a pretty shrewd idea of what she's said and done. I can't claim the same of many others. I was talking about how I'll try to use my time, not who I'll attempt to fry. I may fry her still toDay, but concentrating on one person only has rarely ended well in my experience so I'll try to look at other people too. Does that make sense to you?

That said, I'm off to try to be a man of my word and do some rereading. Back soon!


EDIT: x-ed with Kath and Lommy

[A Little Green]

Oh, and I forgot to say that I believe McCaber; if he's a wolf he's insane.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So you were writing a post overNight? I always consider that a little suspicious, although I know by now that innocents do it too.

Actually writing a post overNight wouldn't explain that since Legate was a lynch and not a Night kill.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Don't forget the option that the lovers are some other people entirely, in which case it would actually be a rather clever wolf ploy to claim to be the lover of the innocent Day1 lynch (or Night2 kill for that matter).

What? I'm confused about lover rules in general, but I don't get this point. If the lovers are some different people entirely, then surely even if they haven't found each other yet they'll be able to do the math and realize that both McCaber and Legate can't be lovers if they are, too, so they'd know McCaber was lying. Which would make it a pretty risky lie to tell, I think.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Anyway, I'm currently entertaining thoughts of a*Coppermirror-Echo-Nerwen*pack, but it makes little sense as Coppermirror would hardly have told a packmate on the thread to go invisible as she could have very well said it during the Night phase. But*Coppermirror*and*Echo*could be packmates based on what*Cop*speculated about packmates giving advice to*Echo*last Night. So I don't really know.

That doesn't really work, because the theory of packmates giving advice to Echo last Night was based on there having been no Night phase in the beginning of the game, and if there was no Night phase, Copper actually couldn't have said anything to packmates before the game began. So that means that this obstacle to your theory actually doesn't exist! So yes, theoretically Cop and Echo could be packmates.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What? I'm confused about lover rules in general, but I don't get this point. If the lovers are some different people entirely, then surely even if they haven't found each other yet they'll be able to do the math and realize that both McCaber and Legate can't be lovers if they are, too, so they'd know McCaber was lying. Which would make it a pretty risky lie to tell, I think.

True, but I doubt the lovers would want to reveal themselves by pointing fingers at McCaber. But I still agree it's much more likely McC is telling the truth, also based on meta reasoning.

Originally Posted by Greenie

That doesn't really work, because the theory of packmates giving advice to Echo last Night was based on there having been no Night phase in the beginning of the game, and if there was no Night phase, Copper actually couldn't have said anything to packmates before the game began. So that means that this obstacle to your theory actually doesn't exist! So yes, theoretically Cop and Echo could be packmates.

What? No! Cop's point was that Echo's more "reasoned" behaviour toDay could be because of packmate briefing last Night and that the briefing couldn't have taken place before Day1 because the game started with a Day phase. My point then was that Cop sounds almost like she's telling what actually happened last Night in the wolf PM discussion ergo she and Echo are wolves.


edit: xed with Copper

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Actually writing a post overNight wouldn't explain that since Legate was a lynch and not a Night kill.

True... so he started writing it yesterDay before DL but didn' post it??? Confusion.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

True... so he started writing it yesterDay before DL but didn' post it??? Confusion.

No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

[Kath]

Well I am going to have a look at everyone now and then probably vote.

Nerwen:
Well my suspicion yesterDay really was fairly tenuous as I said. ToDay I think she did a fair analysis of Inzil and while I do not think it would be so easy to decide he might be the Seer the things she found were fair indicators if you were looking extremely hard. She has suspicions of Lottie and Cop - largely centred around the way they responded to Inzil's death. Has ended up voting Cop with rather tallies with the way her suspicions have developed. I see nothing concerning in her posting toDay.

Cop:
Well now. I quite like that she's arguing back. I do like a good debate.

A pity about Legate. I can see how that happened now and I really should have known better.
I requested clarification.
Legate looked okay to me aside from the one point that looked really bad, which meant that there was a risk of him being a confused innocent who had just failed to explain himself. In retrospect it would have been better to give him the benefit of the doubt for the Day. All the same, I don't regret placing that vote, because Legate was still the person I suspected the most at the end of that Day.
It really is generally pretty suspicious to be a large part of someone's death and then basically say 'oops shouldn't have done that'. If you suspected him most at the end of the Day then you could not have known better at the time. It's just weird.

Then of course there is my mistaken attribution of that post. Now that I have rediscovered that it was Cop then obviously my suspicion surrounding this comment moves to her.

To respond to Cop's question about why I found her previous comment about invisibility suspicious but am happy to ignore her direct comment to Nerwen, it is because her previous comment appeared to be directed towards the wolves. Saying directly to Nerwen that she is visible is a very different kettle of fish (to steal a metaphor from Greenie).

I call Boro's statement all but throw-away because it was put in rather at the last minute. Oh, that one thing she said in that one post is also weird but I'll come back to it with more time. He's hardly spent hours over it.

Lottie:
So Lottie said that Greenie and Legate would not be a wolf on wolf argument but rather an innocent on innocent one. If we have a wolf pack that includes Lottie this would suggest to me that Greenie is a packmate.

Her 'Seer hint' about Inzil is weakly reasoned. I feel she could have done better if she was really looking for hints. Nerwen found a few better examples. So perhaps a wolf who knew this was not the reason they had killed him.

Greenie:
I already said I don't think Legate did flip flop within his post but that obviously is in the back of my mind about Greenie.

Also she just feels to be slipping past without me noticing her. Everything I read gives me this feeling of vague suspicion. I don't really have time to look into it now but I will come back to it toMorrow.

Lommy:
Feels innocent to me toDay.

Shasta:
Currently I feel is innocent, largely due to his forgetfulness around Legate!

McCaber:
Counting him as a known innocent now.

Boro:
Given that he has gone for the Day I am willing to give him a pass for now. I would like more time to converse with him. Plus his big post had some good reasoning in it that made him sound much more like the usual thoughtful Boro.

Echo:
Has begun to at least respond to what he has asked. If he does later come back and give an explanation for that comment about Greenie then I will be much happier about him. If not, well.

Holby:
I am very unhappy about. If a complete newbie is now posting more sense than someone who has been around for a few years? It is very worrying.

Eonwe:
Am still fairly happy with him for breaking the tie yesterDay.

My current feeling is some kind of Lottie/Copper/Greenie wolf pack. Not sure about the Greenie part because she is flying under my radar and I will want to take a much closer look at her toMorrow.

I am going to post then vote.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kath

My current feeling is some kind of Lottie/Copper/Greenie wolf pack.

I don't know whether this post should make me feel more confident or wary, because this is exactly the pack I'm thinking of.

edit: though Cop's most recent post is making me doubt it a little.

[Thinlómien]

Likely packmates
- Copper and Echo (what I said about Cop speculating about Nightly talk)
- Copper/Holby/Eönwë and Kath (any of the three could've been trying to save Kath yesterDay)
- Lottie and Echo/Holby (she's giving them free passes a tad too happily)

Unlikely packmates
- Echo and Kath (the witch-hunt and the latter's frustration with the former - I feel that is Kath was Echo's packmate, she'd rather try to encourage/tutor them than just straightaway give up on them)
- Boro/Lottie and Kath (both clearly put her in the risk of being lynched yesterDay)
- Copper and Nerwen (the invisibility thing would make no sense)
- Echo and Holby (or then I'm not giving Echo enough credit, but their jump on Holby toDay is quite aggressive to be wolf-on-wolf)


edit: xd with Greenie's last

[Echo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Likely packmates
- Copper and Echo (what I said about Cop speculating about Nightly talk)

hmmm interesting,..but sorry doll.
and the part about me and holby,...that was cute,..i laughed

[McCaber]

Man, it seems being out for the first Day and a half really did a number on my investigation skills. Holby is looking suspicious, Lommie's looking innocent, and I'm looking out of time to make a choice.

I'll probably vote Holby unless something happens in the next half an hour. But knowing how ends of days work, something probably will.