Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kath

Oh and unless anyone comes out to refute it I am willing to accept McCaber's claim of being lover. Assuming this means he is now on the side of the village entirely then please McCaber vote toDay so we have no modfire of an innocent!

But, if one of the Lovers is killed before they find each other, they remain an innocent ordo in things like narration and to the seer. Do we really gain something by voting for him now?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You people are thinking in weird ways, this scenario for example would never have occurred to me.

If you're innocent and you weren't thinking about that scenario and associated points, you're worrying me, Lommy. If you're a sorcerer, then that was a canny comment to make, to cast suspicion on people who are trying to work out what the sorcerers' plans are likely to be.

I may make a post towards the end of toDay explaining a bit more about what I think you're overlooking, if I don't have to leave earlier than that, because there are some things you really ought to have in mind toDay.

Edit: crossed with Lommy since #166.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If you're innocent and you weren't thinking about that scenario and associated points, you're worrying me, Lommy.

What?! Why?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What?! Why?

No need to panic, I'll explain before the end of the Day if I have time, even if I get lynched. There are reasons why it should be then. If I don't have time and I get killed, it's my devout hope that somebody else will be able to explain the point instead the next Day, since I think it's a point that people should at least be aware of.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

No need to panic, I'll explain before the end of the Day if I have time, even if I get lynched. There are reasons why it should be then. If I don't have time and I get killed, it's my devout hope that somebody else will be able to explain the point instead the next Day, since I think it's a point that people should at least be aware of.

Now this is very mysterious, and I hate to say more in an innocent than in a guilty way. And I was almost convinced I was going to vote Cop toDay! Will have to think.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

No need to panic, I'll explain before the end of the Day if I have time, even if I get lynched. There are reasons why it should be then. If I don't have time and I get killed, it's my devout hope that somebody else will be able to explain the point instead the next Day, since I think it's a point that people should at least be aware of.

So... when are you planning on doing this?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So... when are you planning on doing this?

Now would be okay.

My point that Lommy didn't seem to have realised is one of the biggest advantages the village has in this game, IMO, which is that it started with a Day phase. This means that although the sorcerers probably knew who the others were, they had no time to talk to each other and make plans. After Night #1, they are likely to have made contact and plans. They have a potential weakness in the switch between those times. This is something that innocents should be watching out for.

That's it, it wasn't a big thing, but it was something Lommy missed. I think it may have been covered by someone else in the meantime.

[Loslote]

Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.

[Eönwë]

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)
Holby -> Nerwen (2)
Echo -> Holby (4)

[Eönwë]

Is there anyone else left to vote that's around now? I don't want to vote Cop and cause a tie.

[A Little Green]

LOTTIE
(Not including Serverman banter or other irrelevant stuff)

The first actual impressions on people, early on Day 1, are that she feels "pretty good" about Cop, is shaky on me but leaning innocent, and thinks my Rule of Three squabble with Legate looks innocent-on-innocent. Lommy strikes her as "a little less innocent, but nothing that shoves her into 'terrifying sorcerer' territory just yet". Has no read on Zil, Kath or Nerwen.

Then, speaking about Kath accusing her of refusing to make a statement:

Seriously, though, this post just made me rather uneasy about her. A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers. It could just be Day-1 lack of proper suspicions and trying to get traction, but it doesn't sit well with me.

Finds Cop's reaction to the whole "my tone looked off to me too" -discussion "wonderfully innocent" and is fairly certain Cop is innocent. Is also "leaning innocentish" on Legate, though with some reservations.

Then moving on to her famous vote post:

So we have a triple tie between*Cop,*Kath, and*Legate, with no clarifying rules on tie-breakers? Well then.

++Kath*

I find her far more suspicious than either*Cop*or*Legate.

I get Boro's (and was it Shasta's?) point about this looking as if she was relieved about the choice being limited. However, in light of what she said prior to this, the vote makes perfect sense. Kath was the only one she suspected anyway, whereas Cop and Legate were ones she had specifically mentioned looked innocentish to her.

Moving on to toDay, she suggests that a quote from Inzil might have been taken for a Seer hint or else that he was a no-trace kill. I don't really buy the Seer hint theory but it doesn't really tell me much about her innocence or guilt.

She thinks Echo comes off as a nervous newbie (though "frustratingly and purposefully vague") and is willing to extend his newbie pass. Holby alarms her, but she "gets the impression that's just her style". These reactions look to be following the same trend of being noncommittal and diplomatic that Kath accused her of yesterDay.

She then argues slightly with Kath and revises her opinion of Holby, saying she isn't sure anymore. She ends the post with

YesterDay,*Kath*was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.

Which is pretty much what I was thinking, too: where is this Kath suspicion coming from? Apart from the one post on Day 1, she doesn't really give reasons for her consistent suspicion of Kath. I hope she returns to elaborate!

And in her latest post to date, she comments on McCaber coming out:

I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?

Which is more careful than most others, but seems sensible for both innocent and wolf.

Conclusions? On the whole, I think Lottie looks pretty innocent. She is at times over-diplomatic and her Kath-suspicion is a bit odd, but her general behaviour especially yesterDay seems logical and sensible. She's down to the Relatively Small Fish -category with Steve, I'd say.


EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 172

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Which is pretty much what I was thinking, too: where is this Kath suspicion coming from? Apart from the one post on Day 1, she doesn't really give reasons for her consistent suspicion of Kath. I hope she returns to elaborate!

Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.