WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Rikae]

That last line had the wrong tone. I mean, that's what I say and people can always disbelieve it; nothing I can do about that.

[Nerwen]

Just to lighten the atmosphere, I wish to say that I really found this little aside aside quite amusing:

Originally Posted by Sally

...Rikae's flip flop (though not in the style of either of our wonderful mods)...

[Nerwen]

About yesterDay: what I'm thinking is that Zil and his comrades, McCaber and The Unknown Wolf might have thought they were likely to lose him soon, and might even have come up with a plan to bus him. But– as I said here, McCaber's death would have been a nasty shock to them, and obviously changes the dynamic quite considerably. So it's a question of whether they would have stuck to such a plan after that. Zil, at least, gives me quite the impression of someone who would have preferred to stay alive– I think the motivation behind his self-vote was that "it worked for Rikae", rather than that he was truly resigned to being lynched.

[Nerwen]

Also, about Rikae:

Thing is, I don't, and never did, agree with the consensus that Rikae's self-vote and loss of temper "screamed innocent". I have seen her act just like that as an innocent, and I've seen her act just like that as a wolf. Not that I mean she would fake it, but, you know, wolves can get angry and frustrated too. (Besides, two of those strongest in pushing that line were Zil and McCaber.)

On the other hand, this "flip-flopping" business on Morsul the Day before yesterDay, that Sally sets so much store by– no, I really don't see anything in that. Sometimes one sees a player as guilty early in the piece... and then comes back towards the end of the Day and finds that *everyone's* for lynching that person– and wonders why the calvary hasn't ridden to the rescue.

[Nerwen]

Having read through yesterDay, I must say things don't look good for Sally. Her scorching attack on Rikae does indeed look as if she's trying to provide an alternative target, or at least a distraction. Later, after other players concur in finding Zil suspicious, she starts heavily pushing the notion that Rikae and Zil are packmates. And at all times her focus is on Rikae rather than Zil– even though he was the main issue of the Day, Sally barely mentions him except to try and connect him with Rikae.

Really, on the face of it, it seems as if there should be no question about whom to lynch toDay.

And yet– I am worried that maybe things are not as they seem. Just as I have seen a guilty Rikae act just like a "frustrated innocent", I have seen an innocent Sally act much like this. Also– would a Sallywolf fasten on Rikae? I'd say anyone else would have made an easier target at that point.

I'm just saying, it's entirely possible they're both innocent, and the real wolf is maybe Little Miss Submarine.

[Nerwen]

It could be Nog, too. The McCaber revelation may make him look better, but it doesn't actually clear him, since it would have been a matter of which fellow to sacrifice. Still, if it were me I'd have tried to save the more experienced wolf, i.e. McCaber.

[Kath]

Nog! Never have I been so insulted! Except I really have been no use and I am sorry. I'm here for a little now and then will be here for the last few hours before deadline.

Kath, Nerwen, Rikae, Nog and sally left. One is a wolf, one is the ranger, three innocent.

Is it worth the Ranger revealing toDay? Say if sally was the Ranger and revealed, that leaves us with 4 unknowns rather than 5. Bad luck we lynch an innocent we're down to 1 wolf and 3 innocents. Ranger gets Night killed we're down to 1 wolf and 2 innocents and have to get it right toMorrow.

The maths is still the same even without the reveal but it would give a bit of a rallying point. I'm just flat out fed up of coming to read the thread and wanting to leave because I'm uncomfortable with these horrible exchanges. That's not werewolf, that's personal. To have a 'known' innocent (assuming we trust the reveal or there's not a counter reveal or a triple, double bluff reveal!!) would be nice!

On to more thread-based topics. I do still suspect sally but whether innocent or guilty I can understand her frustration with the easy ride Rikae seems to be getting. That said, I would like some evidence for sally's assertion that 'Brinn trusted me'. We saw the Rikae evidence but was there actually any for sally?

Nerwen is also right about Rikae. I have seen her behave this way as many times guilty as innocent. Our own reading of Brinn's dreams could well be wrong. However, that's all we have. Maybe it's a mass delusion but I'm with Nerwen on having to hope it's not.

Nog - now for as much as he says he has no read on me I have to say I feel the same about him. Will definitely have a proper look at him later.

My POV just based on read through not actually analysing anyone:
Gut says sally.
Annoyance says Rikae.
Unknown-entity-fear says Nog.
Appear to feel fine about Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand, this "flip-flopping" business on Morsul the Day before yesterDay, that Sally sets so much store by– no, I really don't see anything in that.

I agree. Let's also remember it was Morsul we are talking about: hardly someone you'd have to push subtly or very openly to make other people think he might be suspicious...

With players like Gil and Morsul suspicion comes quite naturally because of the way they play. One can agree with a suspicion or even point it out, but can also jump from frustration if most people take the "easy way" bandwagoning a lynch on that kind of players.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Also, about Rikae:

Thing is, I don't, and never did, agree with the consensus that Rikae's self-vote and loss of temper "screamed innocent". I have seen her act just like that as an innocent, and I've seen her act just like that as a wolf. Not that I mean she would fake it, but, you know, wolves can get angry and frustrated too. (Besides, two of those strongest in pushing that line were Zil and McCaber.)

I'm actually glad someone recognizes this. Ever since that game where I was a wolf and got mad at people going after an innocent Mac, people have been saying I'm so tricksy and false and everything, when I was actually genuinely mad.
The same things often annoy me regardless of my role (people saying things that seem simplistic, don't make sense to me, or seem to take werewolf itself in a direction I don't appreciate). Besides, I'm not proud of my temper and wouldn't want to benefit from it in any way.

About Kath: well, I was kind of hoping for a ranger reveal and a known innocent myself, so I can't suspect her on that basis. A vote for her feels like a shot in the dark.

Nerwen and Nog are both ringing alarm bells and either one could have been my top suspect in a different group. The wolves have done a good job of leaving people alive who are difficult to read and trust (myself included).

On that note, (to Sally in particular), if Brinn did dream of me on Night 1 she almost certainly did so because I'm supposedly so hard to read/always suspicious or whatever my reputation is, in which case it would be a shame to throw away the one bit of useful information our seer managed to give us. I mean, I suppose the wolves left me alive on the assumption I could still talk my neck into a noose, or at least lead people astray. I might be doing just that: I wish there were retractions, because I wanted to vote thoughtfully toDay, not impulsively!

About Nog and Nerwen: the former is playing very carefully, and doesn't really seem to be making that much effort to find wizards. From an innocent Nog I'm used to seeing wild schemes and trickery, rants about submarines, etc.
Nerwen doesn't seem quite right either; in this case, it's all the talk of what the wolves are thinking, and vehemence about what that might be and why wolves do this or that. No, that's not always suspicious, but if there is anything a wolf might get genuinely annoyed at, it is being suspected for the wrong reasons! Perhaps she speaks the truth about gunning for the seer? Didn't Volo also suspect her? Perhaps their plan was "kill Volo and try to pass off the reason as Rikae rather than Nerwen"? I'll have to go back and look at Volo's posts to see if this makes sense, because right now I just remember Nog mentioning Nerwen as a possibility.

And, on the other hand, the fact that Sally got that upset about having her theories dismissed suggests those theories are honestly held.

No, I'm really not very sure about my vote anymore at all. Yes, I could do that as a wolf: pretend to make a vote in anger and then regret it, in order to absolve myself of responsibility and set up my suspicions for the next day. I could, but it would be extremely risky when I'm already under fire for "flip-flopping", and it would also border on unethical by my standards (like I said, I'm not proud of my temper and don't want to benefit from it. I start every game hoping to play it cool, regardless of my role, and I fail every time. )

[Nogrod]

Nerwen's vote on Kath was a welcome reminder to me that this is not over yet - even if I tend to suspect Sally a bit more than anyone else at the time (although puzzled with her freaking out - you know Rikae you have a talent in drawing that behaviour on others? ) and am afraid that if we don't lynch her toDay we'll be facing a real dilemma toMorrow unless we get the last Wizard (other than Sally, that is) toDay.

Nerwen's vote both reminds me of the possibility that she is the last Wizard as it speaks volumes on behalf of her innocence! I'm leaning towards the latter though as it seems the last Wizard would not like to appear controversial at this point - and argumentwise I'd say Sally looks the clear favourite to be the lynchee. So going againts that would be unnecessary for the Wizard.

Btw. the point I had between the relation of Volo's death and Nerwen's innocence was and is, shortly made, the following: Volo made those seer-remarks early on D1 (in his first post) and Nerwen was one among the few he suspected. On the next Day he dropped his suspicions on her - and even went on to say this (bolding mine):

Originally Posted by Volo

I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.

So both pointing to doing something yesterday aka. by Night + saying he feels he's lost his case against her.

Now if Nerwen is an innocent - which the Wizards would know - that would look pretty seerish. And well, Volo is dead after that.

Also, while I agree on the substance of what you say Rikae about the possibility that Brinn wished to check you for the reasons you state, I'm kind of uneasy with the fact that you think it important to actually state them yourself at this point.

Tricksy this is...

[Rikae]

Of course it's important to mention it, Nog. If Sally is innocent we can't afford to have an innocent vote wasted on me at this point in the game.

I'm really getting tired of everyone pointing out how awful a person I am. I'm not going to say any more about it, but I'm getting tired of it. I know people dislike me, and I know they have good reason to, but can we just drop it and finish the game, please?

[Nogrod]

That said, here's what I think now.


Sally - It's firstly and foremostly her sudden attack on Rikae yesterDay after Zil got majorly suspected - and the small things matter; she seemed to have more or less concentrated on Rikae and not paying too much attention to the possibility that Zil could be the Wizard. Surely an innocent had also tried to think about that possibility, but if you have a mission to accomplish that kind of things are easily forgotten.

That point I need to check back though before voting as even if that is how I remember it went yesterDay and someone (Rikae?) commented on it toDay - I have to read it myself to be sure I'm not being blindly walked by someone (especially Rikae if it was her) here.


Rikae - Even if her temper and self-votes - and other early votes - do not make it any easier to trust her, I'm still leaning on her being our safest bet for an innocent just because of what Brinn said and how she defended her vehemently in the tightest spot. And while saying that I'm very much aware I could be wrong here.

I'd not be happy to see her lynched toDay, but if we don't get a wizard toDay, I'd say toMorrow she should be as liable to be lynched as anyone. So no eternal vetoes for her, but yet I think we have better candidates toDay.


Nerwen - Well I wrote about why I think her more likely innocent than not on my post above. What scares the living daylights from me is that at the same time I know her being one of the smartest and most coherent players there are - and it's hard if not impossible to catch her lupine-version from a slip or a blunder as she just doesn't seem to make them.


Kath - I'm really torn with her, the basic point being what I made earlier, that she is out of time and plays reasonably. The problem being, that both a troll and a wizard, if being intelligent and facing the situation Kath has, could have done the same thing.


EDIT: X'd with Sally & Rikae

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

"If ever oh ever a wiz there was the wizard of Oz is one because; because, because, because, becaauuuuusssee ..."

Wait, wait, wait, wrong kind of wizard right? I mean I haven't seen any green city round here, and no hot air balloons either. Maybe that clears Green of being an evil wizard type. Or maybe that's what she wants us to think and she's really green as ... as ... a really green evil thing. Like spinach.

Eurgh. Spinach. Just thinking of that has me feeling sick. I'm out of here.

This was a basis of suspicion for some people. I can see it, and if Kath were a bold wolf, this could have been an overt attempt to let the cobbler know who's boss, but honestly, given how early it was, and how she responded to others' reactions to it, I think it was just random. There wasn't much to go on at the time, and Kath does enjoy the wacky, so I think this was just silliness. Innocent or wizard silliness, I don't know, but I really don't think anything was meant by it.

Originally Posted by Kath

Had found myself worrying about Volo. There seemed to be a lot of looking at what everyone else had done and not giving much away. Then suddenly he comes out with big bold statements which made me feel a lot better about him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Am still worried about Volo having re-read my thoughts. Don't like that he was suspicious of me for possibly deliberately failing to respond to a comment on me being Cobbler-ish. Also he did spend nearly the whole Day not giving strong opinions on anything. Will see if looking at toDay changes my mind on that.

I think these two bits about Volo are Kath legitimately not being able to make up her mind. In the former, she says she worries about him, then that some of his posts make her feel better, but in the latter she goes back to being worried.

The point I would like to make here, however, is that she doesn't call him suspicious. She doesn't say he might be a wizard. She says she worries about him. If we go back to the theory (which I hold at least a little stock in) that Volo was killed because the wizards thought he might be the clever troll, it's entirely possible Kath could have picked up on that and been making a note there, either for her own benefit or for that of her guild mates. Speaking of which....

Originally Posted by Kath

Quick note having read the narration - I don't think it's a surprise Volo was killed. When I was posting about him yesterDay I kept having freak-outs that his weird behaviour could be Seerish. Least we got lucky with him being the Cobbler rather than the actual Seer!

She even says she thought he could have been the seer. So, you know, not good.

Originally Posted by Kath

Question about the Rikae debacle: has she actually quit? 'Cause if she has we're down another player assuming Bane is modkilled toDay. And if she has quit when will her death occur. ToNight? ToMorrow's end of Day? Having dead weight hanging round without knowing the role will be irritating for trying to work out roles. How many wizards are we after, if the Seer (assuming she isn't it) is lynched/killed are there Gifted's left to be aware of etc.

Kath is asking questions here I'm not entirely comfortable with. I understand the desire to know what's going on, but if Rikae is innocent, I could see this as a Kath jumping up and down to see who all will be struck down without effort.

In fact, the fact that she specifically said, "Are there gifteds left to be aware of, etc." really looks quite bad. After all, who would be the most interested to see if the gifteds are dead? The wolves.

Originally Posted by Kath

I am a weeny bit confused. sally posts this, stating she thinks Gil is unlikely to have been dreamed a wolf as Seer-Brinn would have pushed much harder for the lynch had she dreamed him.

But there's no explanatin of how Gil is suspicious in a way other than being a potential dreamed wolf. sally then votes Gil with no further explanation than 'you're suspicious'.

I don't like it.

This was explained by Nerwen and possibly others. I have no problem with Kath finding that strange, as I know she's been pressed for time. I could see an evil Kath using this to try to spin people against me, but I could just as easily see an innocent Kath missing something and acting on inaccurate information. This could really go either way, so....nothing here, I guess?

Originally Posted by Kath

I would say it is the 'if it came between him and Rikae' bit that's important. She is making a very clear statement that she won't vote Rikae. I'd say she was the dream there.

I won't completely dismiss Kath's point here. Yes, Brinn seemed to trust Rikae more than Morsul, but let's add some context to her (Brinn's) statement. We all know how Morsul was acting. Between Morsul and Rikae, on any given Day, Morsul is probably going to be acting more suspicious. Again, I'm not denying the fact that Brinn could have dreamt Rikae, but she also could have expressed this preference because of their actions or because she didn't have a clue and flipped a coin or simply because she enjoys playing with Rikae. Between Rikae and Morsul, she preferred to lynch Morsul, but that was also a choice between Rikae and Morsul, so let's not forget that. And I swear, that's all I'm saying on that matter.

She then brings up the thing about me and Gil again, which at this point no longer seems like a Kath who didn't know any better, but rather a Kath with an agenda.

The next Day(s) she goes after me and has been consistent more or less ever since. Okay, fair enough, I suppose, but....you know you misunderstood the whole Gil thing, right?

Originally Posted by Kath

Is it worth the Ranger revealing toDay? Say if sally was the Ranger and revealed, that leaves us with 4 unknowns rather than 5. Bad luck we lynch an innocent we're down to 1 wolf and 3 innocents. Ranger gets Night killed we're down to 1 wolf and 2 innocents and have to get it right toMorrow.

The maths is still the same even without the reveal but it would give a bit of a rallying point. I'm just flat out fed up of coming to read the thread and wanting to leave because I'm uncomfortable with these horrible exchanges. That's not werewolf, that's personal. To have a 'known' innocent (assuming we trust the reveal or there's not a counter reveal or a triple, double bluff reveal!!) would be nice!

I'm sorry, but no. As Nerwen said, I don't like the push for the ranger to reveal; at this point, the only thing it's going to do is get them killed.

Originally Posted by Kath

I would like some evidence for sally's assertion that 'Brinn trusted me'. We saw the Rikae evidence but was there actually any for sally?

Not much, to be honest. I mostly used myself to make a point. Here is what Brinn had to say on me.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Originally Posted by Brinn

Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.

So, you know, Brinn never suspected me either, which is the point I was trying to make earlier. It doesn't mean she dreamt me though, just that she trusted me (which again, is the point I was trying to make earlier, blah blah).

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen is also right about Rikae. I have seen her behave this way as many times guilty as innocent. Our own reading of Brinn's dreams could well be wrong. However, that's all we have. Maybe it's a mass delusion but I'm with Nerwen on having to hope it's not.

Nog - now for as much as he says he has no read on me I have to say I feel the same about him. Will definitely have a proper look at him later.

Kath has spent much of the game having no read on people. I'm not implying she's done it intentionally -I honestly believe she's been busy- but it's also a convenient place for a wolf to hide.


Conclusion: Suspecting someone (who suspected her, by the way) of being a seer and having that person conveniently die, continuing with a flawed logic even after it was explained to her, being pretty vague on everyone but the person she's been voting, suggesting the ranger reveal toDay, saying she might vote Rikae just out of annoyance....yeah, I'm not so sure now the wizard couldn't be Kath.

You know, I think maybe you're all evil.