WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

I'm sorry to keep harping on Rikae, but this sort of thing is bothering me more than her self-vote or even her possibly-in-quotation-marks confession.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, enough about Rikae.. The Greenie-Boro thing is quite interesting... though it's hard to say yet what it's all about...
EDIT: x'd with Lottie.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lottie

At this point, I highly doubt Rikae is a wizard. I don't think a wizard would act like this in this scenario. I think she's simply a stressed-out person who is frustrated and that frustration is clouding her judgement. Pure and simple. It's happened before, to a lot of people. At this point, I'd prefer to leave her alone - the current trend seems to be 'Provoke Rikae. Get into a tizzy over how confusing her responses are. Vote, rinse, repeat'. This is getting us nowhere, and the actual wizards are probably sitting back and laughing their pointy hats off at us.

Very likely- but I have to tell you that I have in the past known her to do the emotional,"frustrated" business as a wolf. That's why I've been having trouble leaving this this alone- even though it is probably the case that she's just an innocent in a bad mood.

EDIT:x'd with Lottie.

[Nerwen]

Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lottie, it actually is a fallacy, and I don't think you're reading properly what I've said, or realising how much of a weird straw man case Rikae has been putting up. I would explain again, but it's very late here, I'm tired and feeling pretty frustrated myself after all this.

No, see, you're not reading properly what Rikae is saying. From what I understand after reading through her posts quite thoroughly is that she's saying exactly what I was saying, but she was more frustrated and upset, and thus what she said could be misunderstood. She's not putting forward a straw-man argument. She's taking what she perceives to be unjustified suspicion of her and explaining why it isn't necessarily the case. She isn't saying the wizards don't look for the Seer - she's saying that's not the only factor in their kill choice. Big difference.

[satansaloser2005]

So....I have myself a new toy, and toDay we're going to see how poorly/slowly I type on it.

I still say Morsul is a wolf, and that Volo tried to save him. I have no idea why they would have killed him though.

Rikae was oddly pushy about me having a look at Oz yesterDay, which I also find highly suspicious, especially given that we now know he's innocent.

I've read little to nothing of toDay's posts, but those were my feelings as of the beginning of toDay. I'll be back later-ish after I've eaten and actually read the entire thread.

[McCaber]

Back. Reading. So far it looks like a really weird situation.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Exactly what I was thinking. Nerwen's thinking is rather narrow minded. I remember from past experiences as a wolf that unless we had a really good feel on who might be the seer, we would go after either a no trace or someone who could potentially be dangerous (but whose death wouldn't incriminate us).

Now if this was unusual behavior from Rikae, it'd be one thing. But she's acted this way before, so I don't think there's any need to get so worked up over it.

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

[McCaber]

So based on today's actions, Rikae looks better than she did, and Morsul looks worse. This seems like a frustrated innocent getting caught up in personal stress (speaking of, I really hope it gets better for you, Rikae), because I've seen her act like this in the past. In a tense, late game situation a wolfae might try a gambit like this, but there's just no gain now.

Morsul, on the other hand, looks like an opportunist wizard leaping on the chance to get an easy kill off.

[Nerwen]

Arrrgh! I am approaching the "rage quit" stage. I never said all wolves will always target the Seer under all circumstances. I was responding to Rikae's contention that they so rarely do that there's something wrong with even looking at the kill from that angle. This is simply false.

I am getting tired of this whole thing. Maybe I look like I'm persecuting her, but it wasn't my intention and the fact is she has been quite unreasonable.

EDIT: x'd with McCaber.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard. Now tell me a wizard would never kill someone they didn't think was the Seer. It seems to me that following that policy is suicidal and stupid from the perspective of a wizard. I think Rikae had a good point, is too frustrated at the moment to really defend it, and is being bullied by you, a wizard, taking advantage of an easy kill.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard.

Well having been a wolf a bit too many times I can tell you there is nothing more urgent for the wolves as to get the seer - whatever the cost.

Well at least to any wolves that have a "high profile" aka. being high on the potential seer-dream list.

But what raises my eyebrow is that Lottie uses their failure last Night as an argument on them not willing to find the seer... It looks a bit too deliberate?

Nothing I think proves for sure Rikae is a wizard - even if that option does present itself not only based on Volo but also on Rikae's actions toDay.

But Boro, and somewhat Gil as well, look bad from the POV of the Wizards thinking Volo the seer (I have yet to see a more convincing explanation as him to be the Wizard-pick as he would have been an easy lynch toDay).

From what I have had time to read my own suspicions seem to be gathering around Brinn as well. It's coming too late to hold things back at the moment, I mean.

[Nogrod]

Rikae (3) I'm torn with: it's not the first time she would have pulled this kind of a show when guilty. And there are god reasons to believe she's a Wizard. Then again, there are other explanations (Boro (1) fex.?)

Morsul (2) could be the easy pick because of the way he posts. Which fdoesn't mean he couldn't be a wizard.

I doubt Nerwen (1) is a Wizard. Or Greenie (1).

Have suspicion on Brinn but haven't had time to just pin it down...