WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold.

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Copper

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection.
…
Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.

Aka. they thought it was more important for them to kill him than let him stay as a potential lynchee. So the idea they thought him the seer sounds most probable. And that’s why I concentrated on that aspect in the early hours of the Day.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

I don’t think Volo’s first post would have been what made the case for Volo to be picked as it would have been outrageously clumsy from the real seer. So I’m quite drawn to a conclusion there was something in his suspicions that over-rode the Wizards’ possible wariness about that first post (which still could have been the first reason they got the idea about Volo being the seer).

Nerwen: what I meant with the problem of two dreams on N2 was exactly that: that it would have been impossible for the seer to dream both you and Rikae on the same Night – and if one was to think the seer had dreamt of you both it looked more probable it was N2 than N1 (Volo changed his view on you Nerwen considerably after N2 but also went after Rikae much more strongly on D2 – the problem being that he wasn’t that forthcoming on D1 with Rikae). But my conclusions on that whole problem anyway was that I think of you Nerwen as more likely innocent and Rikae more likely a Wizard based on what the Wizards could have thought about you two in relation to Volo (if I didn’t make that clear enough).

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.

Exactly my thoughts (like I said already yesterDay). It felt like the wolves were leaning back and seeing the voting going the way they were comfortable with.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.

Well no. Or a partial ”yes” for the first sentence (not a total acceptance as I’m not sure whether the Wizards thought of Volo as the seer – but it seems thus far the likeliest explanation). But other than that, I have not made up my mind (even if it’s close) – and I have no wish to find out reasons to help lynching a certain person just because… (and talking about you especially, well actually it would be very nice to play with you for a long time). But I wish to get the Wizards lynched, whoever they are, and thus far the scenario where they killed Volo because they thoguht him the seer looks the most believable – and the only person it seems to point seems to be you.

But yes, maybe I have not considered all the things or have missed something. I do look forwards to be corrected – and will change my mind immediately when shown why what I think is not plausible.


Rikae… Noooooooo!!!!
Not again, please. (referring to her self-vote, that is)

Okay. I need to go back preparing the dinner for us – and I’m seriously lagging behind (only gotten to where Rikae voted herself) so forgive me if I have been talkng about things that have been somehow radically changed by this time. Back later…

[A Little Green]

As usual, not quoting everything as that would be insane. My comments in italics

DAY 1

Frustration with banter

Pom, McCaber, and Morsul get points for the effort of trying to post substance; hates Day 1s because they are the easiest for a wolf to hide in; says she doesn't object to banter in general but that it's a problem if it gets out of hand

Originally Posted by Brinn

So far I'm feeling good about Rikae. She seems the most genuine at least. Pom seems okay as well, for now.

I don't like Copper's vote because Boro has hardly said anything and I don't know how she can get a gut feeling about him based on those posts. I'd hold off on voting her toDay though, because I haven't played with Copper before and don't know her playing style.

Morsul votes Kath based on some weak cobbler suspicions. But wouldn't it be better to vote for a suspected wizard? But I'll let it pass, since in his defense there is so little to go on right now.

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

My vote toDay will be:

++Nerwen

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.

Not overly fond of this vote, but it was early on in the Day and quite little had happened, so I'm willing to give it a pass. Also, this makes me doubt that both Rikae and Brinn are wolves, as I don't think an otherwise careful Brinnard would cheerfully point to two of her three fellows as innocentish in a Day 1 post.

DAY 2

Comments on Nerwen's speculation of why Pom panicked after her vote; thinks the likeliest scenario is

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

Originally Posted by Brinn

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.

Kind of obvious but makes sense.

Writes a list; I'm quoting it in full regardless of the length, sorry for that, but it seemed like the best choice.

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.

What struck me was that she is being extremely careful, almost too diplomatic; there is a but in almost every paragraph. Might just be undecided ordo (I can symphatize with that!) but somehow the tone is measured rather than confused.

Says defensiveness isn't necessarily suspicious; forgot the cobbler when doing her list, agrees with the suggestion that Nog might be one.

Another list:

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

This makes me feel better; not as noncommittal as the previous list.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

Again a lot of buts here.

Nog looks better; explains her change of opinion about Nerwen:

I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

Votes for Volo; still wary of Oz, but wants to hear more from him


DAY 3

Speculates about the Volo kill, doesn't really add anything new

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

I already speculated about this before; something rubs me the wrong way here, though at the same time it's a sensible point to make. Gah.

If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.

This seems a bit weird - speculating long about Volo's death, then saying it might be wiser to talk about something else.

Wonders whether Morsul and Oz weren't both innocent since she doesn't find Morsul all that suspicious

Thinks Morsul's ”innocent Cab” -comment is likely hypothetical and if it really is, would not be surprised to find a Wizer among those who pursued it; thinks Morsul's point against Lottie was indeed flimsy but not necessarily Wizard-like

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I agree with this, but it tells little about Brinn's alignment as long as we don't know Rikae's. I'd say that if Rikae is evil then Brinn looks bad too, but Rikae's innocence wouldn't tell us anything about Brinn. If that makes sense. Then again, that Day 1 post makes me think it unlikely that they are fellows, so I don't know what to think. Helpful, I know.


CONCLUSIONS?

What stood out to me was that Brinn is playing really careful. It could go either way - a Wizard playing it safe by being diplomatic and leaving both ends open, so to speak, or an innocent who sees something for and against each argument and thus has a hard time being of any opinion. Oh my. That latter option sounds like what I'm doing in this particular post, actually! Anyhow, I'm not sure this analysis helped me form an opinion on Brinn's alignment, but at least I have an idea what she's said and done, which can be counted as progress.

Sorry. Not my shrewdest day toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Brinn, Nerwen, and Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.

You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.

[A Little Green]

I'd really love a reread of McCaber (sorry for the lack of bolding, 'Downs or my laptop or both are messing up), will hopefully do that at some point. Dinner now, back later.

[Morsul the Dark]

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

Annoyed and stressed I am. Ragequit I did. The fact that people fail to see my sarcasm and fail to see how utterly ridiculous this certainty about Volo is has really killed my desire to be helpful all the more.

[Rikae]

Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.

Thanks, Greenie & Morsul for the condolences.

See you in the postgame discussion, everyone. Get smarter, please.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I'm off. Guess I won't be posting again, so once you have my role, please take a good look at these people who are so certain Volo was thought a seer, who behaved as though it was unquestionable etc. once it is clear that that isn't what they did at all.

Since I'm the only one in position to know that at this point, I can say what it was instead - almost certainly a framing attempt, and Copper's attempt to look like she's pushing the seer theory independently looks very bad to me. I think perhaps the wizards suspected him as the cobbler, even, and took the package he gift-wrapped for them. Of course wolves like to frame innocents and control the next day's lynch. Of course they do. Any experienced player knows that, and Nerwen is experienced. Of course they also go for seers when they think they spot one, but to behave as though this is the only way they choose kills is absurd.

Sure would be- if I or anyone else had done this. This did not happen, Rikae.. For instance I initially said the evidence against you was "thin" and that it might all be a distraction/false trail. It's right there in my post analysing Volo.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.

I'll be waiting. I would just think you would know me well enough by now to know it's disingenuous to cast vague suspicions and leave a veiled hint you have good reasons but don't want to say them yet. That is you are clearly trying to project you know something about me, but have now twice said you don't want to right now.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Annoyed and stressed I am. Ragequit I did. The fact that people fail to see my sarcasm and fail to see how utterly ridiculous this certainty about Volo is has really killed my desire to be helpful all the more.

What certainty about Volo? You mean the way that several people think the obvious or most likely possibility is that he was killed as a potential Seer candidate threatening a wizard? I can understand that you'd be really worried about being voted for, but...

If you're innocent, you need to bear in mind that even if we were to take that view as set in stone (which I don't think is true), there's no guarantee that you were the wizard they thought Volo had caught. He suspected others too, and thought that various other people were innocent.

So, if you're innocent, it's best to calm down and try to think of other avenues aside from ragequitting.

Edit: cross-posted since Rikae at #233.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.

[Rikae]

"No trail" - or better yet, a false trail.

The only thing is, would Nog and/or Cop and/or Nerwen wizard be that obvious? Once I'm lynched, they're under scrutiny. Or won't they? Am I crazy? Does everyone really believe that every wolf-kill is of a suspected seer? Maybe I really know nothing about this game after all these years...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I've been there and I know nothing of the kind. When I'm a wolf I try to eliminate gifteds, or failing that, players who seem generally dangerous. Some wolves do favour no-trail kills-though not you, as I recall- but no wolf with any sense *doesn't* look for the Seer. Again, this is all common knowledge, and whatever you are I just can't understand your motivations in saying otherwise.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.

I on't know how you managed to miss all this either. And as I said- we were bound to speculate about the kill. That's just normal. You were completely overreacting.

EDIT: x'd since Rikae at #352.

[Rikae]

Ok, I'm still here and had to respond to this. You're twisting my words, Nerwen. I didn't say the wolves didn't look for the seer, I said they rarely choose the kill because they think it's a seer. I said they rarely "have" a good seer suspect, and yes, this is according to my experience. I've certainly never gone for a player because s/he was "dangerous". Dangerous how? A good player? A good player on the wrong trail is useful, and killing a good player on the right trail is dangerous. Dangerous because they are correct? See the latter statement. Heck, I've left suspected seers alive rather than legitimize their suspicions.

Either the wolves are being very, very bold today or this game isn't what it used to be.

Ok, now I really have to go.

[Rikae]

Oh, one more thing: it was Greenie who said it was the only explanation that makes sense.

Remember that.

[Nerwen]

I am not twisting your words, Rikae. You are the one who seems to be responding to what you imagine people have said rather than what they've said- all this "certainty" about Volo, and everyone "believing every wolf-kill is of a suspected Seer". These are strawman arguments, pure and simple.

For the last time. Maybe the kill was meant to frame you. That is always possible, and I said it might be. All right. The rest of us- those who are innocent- can't know that. We're bound to speculate and put forward scenarios about why he might have been killed. As usual.

I mean- I thought Gil was paranoid!

EDIT: X'd with Rikae.

[Nerwen]

Yes, sure. Greenie could indeed be a wolf framing you. I'm not ruling that out. I pretty much haven't ruled anything out at this point.