WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

Okay, here's the first part of my opinions on people. I'll split this up because it's likely to take some time.

Bane: He commented ominously on Gil, and pointed out to Greenie the incongruity of Pom's vote with what she said, thinking she hadn't considered it. Later on, Pom is his top suspect by far, but he decides to abstain from voting on account of newbieness. He seems pretty sensible, but the lack of voting concerns me.

Shasta: He voted Pom, making that the deciding vote. That was important. However, I don't think it says anything at all for whether Shasta is innocent. From either side, that was a good move to make. He didn't know the game had started until late, so can't blame him for lack of posting.

Sally: Is looking so innocent that I'm really worried that she's a wizard fooling us all. Went for Pom after her slip, and thought that a wizard Gil wouldn't have been laying things on so thick on Day 1.

Nog: I agree that he's the most likely to have attempted to save Pom, and that the chances are from his behaviour that if so, he's far more likely to be a cobbler than a wizard. But if - if - he's the cobbler, is it really a good idea to lynch him toDay instead of trying for a wizzard?

There were some non-committal comments, but he did express some suspicions. And, reading through his comments, I can imagine them all potentially coming from an innocent. As for the vote, I understand that someone might want to create a tie and see what happens, and on the face of it it's not terrible behaviour, but that time if someone had swooped in to try to save Pom, it could easily have lead to another person's lynching. So...I'm on the fence about Nog and hope to come to a conclusion soon. Still thinking about it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Volo

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

This? This is still the most disconcerting thing I have seen anyone say all game (and it's a game that includes Morsul, so that's saying something ). Intentionally starting a bandwagon and admitting to doing so is just never going to sit right with me. Especially given that Pom was a wizard, this looks like an attempt to save a packmate that simply didn't work.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

Gil-Galad, "Gil"- - His vote on Nerwen is flimsy at best and the whole Red Shirt defense... I've used that to good effect as both an ordo and wolf but to push it as far as this hmmm.... Watching you

First of all, an excellent point on Gil, good sir. There's playing the victim and then there's standing outside the window with a salt shaker and a violin, acting like a sad old lady so the little piggies will let you come in and eat them. Gil really seems to be doing the latter to me. Of course it leads to some hilarious mental images, though the clothing in question would then be more of a light-ish red....

However....I'm sorry, but how do you know McCaber is innocent again? I'll feel like quite an idiot if I just did that thing where I ask a question I shouldn't ask, but this seems horribly out of place to me (and I believe Lottie's already mentioned it anyway, so it's not like no one's noticed). There are only two ways you can know he's innocent: Either you're the seer or you're a wizard. I like to think you'd be more cunning as a seer, though this definitely lacks finesse regardless of which is your role. However, a wizard would be more able to take risks (having guild members to carry on and all that), so I'm leaning that way.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.

A fair point as well. As noted, Volo went overboard and overstated on trying to prevent a Pom (and McCaber) lynch. Suspicious indeed.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way- I don't think anyone else has pointed this out-
here Pom speaks of Cop as a male, which unless I'm very much mistaken is incorrect. That argues against their being packmates (though not conclusively).

Not necessarily. I'm still not sure if Captain of Despair is male or female. Then again, that's because Mac bussed him/her right away.....

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that's not the real problem- it's that Nog both speaks of the lynch as already decided: "So it's Pom now (first with as many votes)" and of what "any further votes" could tell us. A real brain-twister, that post is.

Another interesting point. It seemed like an attempt at fishing for votes, although there weren't many voters left at that point (and as stated, two of them were Nerwen and Kath, so there was very little hope they'd show up). Nog doesn't seem that dangerous to me at the moment, however, and I really do need to keep my brain focused on my own observations, lest I be swayed into voting someone I didn't previously think wise.


A list in a moment.

[Loslote]

Alright. I have to go to work, and I won't be back until after the DL, so I'll go ahead and

++Morsul

Because I think he slipped when he assumed/knew Cabbie is innocent, and while I have more concrete suspicions on Nog, I also happen to think Nog is a cobbler, not a wizard, so I'd prefer not to vote a suspected cobbler when I could vote a suspected wizard.

[satansaloser2005]

Suspicious:
Volo - for that whole "I'm creating a bandwagon" thing
Gil - for being far too much of a martyr to be legitimate
Morsul - for assuming Cab's innocence

Hmmmm:
Nogrod - for his post late yesterDay
McCaber - Pom's reaction to his vote (one she'd seen it) strikes me as incriminating, though I could be reaching
Shasta - he would totally do that to one of his mates, no question (nothing else though at the moment)

No strong feelings:
Greenie
Brinn
Dun
Nerwen
Oz
Rikae

Leaning innocent:
Cop - it seems unlikely that Pom would do what she did if Cop were her mate

Will not vote toDay:
Boro - not going to be here anyway, so it doesn't seem sporting
Kath - at risk of modfire, and nothing to go on anyway
Bane - at risk of modfire
Lottie - speaks sense, at least for now



x'd with Trollottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Problem with Internet at home. Can only get on from phone. Will not be voting today - cannot read thread. Don't lynch me. Bad idea. Hopefully fixed toMorrow.

[Gil-Galad]

Volo has been one that has been playing rather... Sloppy. This could mean that Vol has no role and thus little interest, or trying to play it super low if given a role. The bandwagon comment and bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee is unsettling.

Thus for toDay, I am going to have to say:

++Volo

If he turns out to be an Ordo, then I will have to go back to my initial suspect of Brin. We shall see toNight as I won't be back on until right before the deadline.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Zil

Greenie's vote could be seen as bandwaggonish, but she reasoned it pretty well.

Actually I cross-posted with Rikae's vote, so I thought I was the first to vote McCaber.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Ok, I need to leave for class soon which means I need to make my voting choice for toNight now. And I have to say, from here Rikae's sudden turn after Pom's and my votes looks rather fishy. She did her best to turn everyone's attention away from Pom and onto me, despite that our votes and reasoning were basically identical (and on line with what Rikae herself had posted just ahead of that). To me, that behavior reads like being able to make points against a fellow wizard while getting an innocent lynched at the same time. Maybe I'm too close to this to see really objectively on it, but as I'm short on time and nothing has really jumped out at me toNight as wizard-sign,

This is, I think, a shrewd point. I probably can't vote McCaber toDay since he makes so much sense to me!

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Also a good point, and something I might want to look into. (Especially seeing as those two ladies are the players I've always had most trouble reading. Them and Inzil, that is.)

Originally Posted by Cop

Shasta: He voted Pom, making that the deciding vote. That was important. However, I don't think it says anything at all for whether Shasta is innocent. From either side, that was a good move to make.

Might be just a different opinion on what's a good move for a wolf, but for me, giving a fellow a deciding vote that way seems insane. Especially coming from someone who had hardly had time to post at all and who therefore could have gone for anyone without seeming inconsistent. So yeah, giving Shasta a pass for the moment.

Originally Posted by Sally

Intentionally starting a bandwagon and admitting to doing so is just never going to sit right with me.

The thing is, you can't lynch anyone without multiple people voting for the same person. What killed Pomzard yesterDay was, in effect, a bandwagon. We tend not to call it that because it worked out well for us, but that's essentially what it was. So yes, I think that in our great adversity to bandwagons, we tend to forget they can be pretty useful too.

Which is not to say that I agree with Volo's vote for Nerwen. I never could read her so I have next to no idea whether to suspect her or not, but I definitely don't think she's our best bet toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Gil and Copper

[Kath]

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Off for a readthrough. :-)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Correct.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Off for a readthrough. :-)

Just affirming that it indeed is correct And as a general reminder, that votes should be cast before the XX:01 time.

[Kath]

Comments on me:
I fear I have misunderstood something given how many people commented on my post about the Wizard of Oz yesterDay. Someone said me not replying was suspicious. Even had I been there I wouldn't have known what I was replying to - what did I miss?

Ah it was Volo who said my failure to reply was trying to intentionally be mysterious. He would have undoubtedly noticed my absence and knows my playing history. This is odd to me.

Pom:
Mentioned the Gil/Nerwen debate and determined both were innocents. Thinks Cop's early vote for someone who is usually a valuable villager is suspicious. Says Brinn is suspicious for voting someone who was trying to get discussion going. Thinks Nerwen isn't suspicious. Went 'oh no! bandwagon!' after STARTING the bandwagon! Well I can see why she was lynched now!

Votes:
Cop --> Boro (gut feeling, little content)
Morsul --> Kath (Cobbler hints <-- this I don't get!)
Brinn --> Nerwen (excessive banter and picking comments to use for lynch material)
Gil --> Nerwen 2 (no reasoning, says she has most input but won't add another name?!?)
McCaber --> Coppermirror (for being hasty and suspicion-mongering)
Pom --> Coppermirror 2 (focusing on Boro's IC comments but ignoring others)
Rikae --> McCaber (for the Cop bandwaggon)
Greenie --> McCaber 2 (overeager Cop suspicion and misrepresenting what people said)
Inzil --> Pom (for telling people to watch those who vote Cop, after voting for Cop)
Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much)
Lottie --> Pom 2 (some suspicion of her, no suspicion of the others on the block)
Boro --> Coppermirror 3 (for their vote - this brought the votes to a tie again)
Volo --> Nerwen 3 (anti-the-others-bandwagon and little reasoning - this was bringing an old name back in, she hadn't had votes for quite some time)
sally --> Pom 3 (blatant bandwaggoning)
Shasta --> Pom 4 (puts her in the lead - wasn't labelled as a crosspost so was a choice)
Nog --> McCaber 4 (for voting early and hanging around - knew this was a vote that wouldn't affect the lynch)

Pom dies and is a wizard (yay!).


Yesterday:
I think 'suspicion-mongering' is harsh for Cop, who voted very early amidst a lot of banter.

I was interested to see in the early banter of yesterDay that within Mors' seemingly empty list there were a couple of items of note. He said Brinn is 'fairly low key so will watch' - does this mean that she is under the radar so we need not to forget about her or is there vague suspicion there? Pom was also there as 'always seems suspicious to me'. I have no knowledge of their previous games so if there is history there perhaps this makes sense, otherwise perhaps interesting given the lynch yesterDay.

Rikae and the wizards turning into gifted's thing ... attempt to start conversation?

Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

Nerwen hinting that if Cop does a lot of re-capping posts she is more likely to be a wolf. Good laying of ground-work by a wolf to pick up on later, can see what Brinn meant.

Gil and Nerwen mini-fight probably not an issue. Gil always dies early precisely because of exactly what he did yesterDay. Nerwen overreacts to this kind of playing.

Rikae faintly defends Pom - saying a wizard would surely be less wishy-washy.

Greenie suspects Nerwen for such different reasons to Brinn, she seems to then end up with suspicion of Brinn too! Crazy suspicion triangles going on. Thought Cop could be a wizard with the Boro vote because there is no way a bandwagon would have built up - I agree with this.

Had found myself worrying about Volo. There seemed to be a lot of looking at what everyone else had done and not giving much away. Then suddenly he comes out with big bold statements which made me feel a lot better about him.

Quick thoughts on yesterDay coming up then will read toDay.

EDIT: Crossed with everyone since my last post.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The thing is, you can't lynch anyone without multiple people voting for the same person. What killed Pomzard yesterDay was, in effect, a bandwagon. We tend not to call it that because it worked out well for us, but that's essentially what it was. So yes, I think that in our great adversity to bandwagons, we tend to forget they can be pretty useful too.

This is true, but he didn't say, "I don't think McCaber and Pom are guilty, but I think Nerwen is." He specifically said, "McCaber and Pom are....up to three votes, so this is to counter that." The candidates presented to him were not to his satisfaction, so he offered another one. Nothing wrong there in theory, but given that he voiced his opinion so strongly and that the "less suspicious" candidate he tried to prevent lynching was a wizard....well, you can see where that's going.

It doesn't feel like he was lobbying for a guilty candidate. It feels like he was lobbying for a candidate he wanted.


x'd with Gil, Morsul, and Dun

[Inziladun]

After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

[Morsul the Dark]

++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.
x'ed since Zil

[Volo]

Impressions (unfortunately based mostly on Day1 and a quick skim):
A Little Green, "Green" - been on rather friendly terms, playing careful, trying to avoid taking a negative stance - ok, that's my reactions due to her agreeing with a few of my thoughts. Feels like a bit too obvious a strategy for a Wizer, more like being careful not to make too many assumptions. I'd say Innocentish zone.
Bane Mantra, "Bane" - sharp eye on the situation, I'd be surprised if is a Wizer.
Boromir88, "Bore" - something doesn't fit, actually my impression is a bit like when we were Wolf partners ages ago.
Brinniel, "Brin" - Critical eye, I feel she'd more good if she were Innocent than damage as a Wizer, otherwise I can't say which way she'd go.
Coppermirror, "Cop" - I might bite the idea that Pom tried to avoid actually having Cop lynched, which would point to Cop being suspicious. At that point it would have been a safe move for Pom, since I don't regard her being once suspected before her vote.
Gil-Galad, "Gil" - When I last played with Gil, his playing style was rather varied based on his role, this game he certainly resembles his Wolf-self: the active caring contribution, being of what feels like a central player, also more desperation than otherwise. Sorry, but avoiding lynching based on strong hunches feels silly at the moment - and there was a series of comments where he was defended quite strongly: I did that in one post, Boro several times, also sally. I felt there was something odd with his feud with Nerwen - like two active players on the same side getting too agressive (I recall Wolves usually staying to the side in such situations - or clearly dissociation from each other). Actually, now that I write down my thoughts, I'm not so sure and will once again give us the benefit of doubt.
Inziladun, "Lad" - Flying over my radar, actually.
Kath, "Kat" - Innocent? The most likely Cobber to my eyes. Dunno.
Loslote, "Lot" - Submarining under my radar, actually.
McCaber, "Cab" - I've had my doubts, but atm doesn't ring alarm clocks.
Morsul the Dark, "Mors" - I don't recall playing with him, but he seems genuine and I would feel surprised if he were a Wizer.
Nerwen, "Nerve" - I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.
Nogrod, "Nog" - He seems to have written more general observations conserning the game than actual analysis of this particular game. Somehow that feels a bit off. But then again, he often implies that he's in a hurry, and I can certainly connect to that. Ah, I trust I've played enough with him to figure him in the end, but nothing more than a slight wariness at the moment.
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.
Rikae, "Rick" - I'm growingly more wary with Rikae. Her actions seem like Pom^2. She's been influencing without answering for the responcibility.
satansaloser2005, "Sal" - No idea. Carefree?
Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz" - too little data.
Volo, "Vol" - I'll have loads more time on Day3 and Day4, so if you can forgive me for not keeping up, I'll try to earn my place.
Is G55 playing in this game?

xd w everything since 23:21

Huh! My internet connection was reset and I nearly had a heart attack with even this being deleted.

[Rikae]

Well, just first impressions (yes, I'm late, which proves I'm not a wizard):

First of all, I'm kicking myself for that "a wizard would be more careful" business yesterday! Seeing Pom & Cab's votes I was sure there was evil afoot, and my first instinct was to blame Pom. I had the post half typed up, then went "nah, too sloppy to be a wizard".

If I recall correctly it was Nog who mentioned that Pom was panicky about being in a possible bandwagon, which was a sensible statement and I almost said so (again). In fact, it was more sensible than the speculation I see about Pom's panic today: that is, as a wolf she would be jumpy about the possibility of looking suspicious, and her first response to Cab's apparent bandwagoning was "this makes me look bad!" which, of course, it did. I doubt a wolfish Nog would cast Pom in such a bad light at that point when he could have ignored it. I also doubt he would have cast his late vote in such a way as to draw negative attention to himself in a last-ditch attempt to save a packmate. Also Pom's #95 about Nog naming the wrong number of wizards - which he didn't, anyway - is odd. Why is she jumping on a reason to make Nog look more innocent, though she words it in the least conclusive way possible? Could just be a wizardish interest in a remark about wizards, spun into something semi-substantial but non-committal. Could also be an attempt to make a packmate look innocent. I'm not leaning in that direction, though.

I'd rather leave both Nerwen and Nog alone for toDay. They are talkative and sooner or later, if evil, could slip up; if not, they're helpful to have around.

Cab, your vote looked opportunistic, so the reasoning was secondary. My first suspicion on Cop was thin but all I had to go on at the time, but (as I was hoping) the reactions to it were informative.

Looking at Greenie: she comes off as very agreeable yesterDay, and goes after Cab at the point when people were wondering whether he or Pom looked worse for bandwagoning against Cop. She defends Pom slightly. I can't say if it's wizardish or not at this point.

Bane and Nog are the first ones arguing against Pom:

Originally Posted by Bane

Pom warns us to be suspicious of people voting for Cop, which includes Pom. Don't you find that to be a bit incongruous?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It feels pretty natural to me that - if she is just a troll that is - after voting and seeing there was another vote to Copper as well, just as the talk around him had started, she felt people should pay attention to it; even if she is herself included. I mean I could have said that if I were in her position.

Then again - and the trouble being - I could have said that also were I a wolf and in her position, just to make myself look considerate. A safe vote would be something a wolf would long for. Maybe a PomWizard thought her vote for Copper was safely reasoned when she sent it, but then seeing Cab's vote made her uneasy and she felt she had to downplay the idea she was bandwagoning, at least in any sneaky fashion?

Ok, he's wishy washier than I remembered about it, but it makes sense.

Inzil was the first to vote for Pom. I don't find it particularly innocentish: at this point she didn't seem very likely to be lynched.

Oz's vote for Cab (#130) looks quite bad to me. At this point advancing a Cab wagon would seem possible and desirable to a wizard (assuming Cab is innocent, and Pom's reaction to him makes me think so). He uses reasoning others have put forward, and reiterates suspicion of red shirt Gil (to look consistent, and as a possible easy lynch in the future?)

Nog continued to argue against Pom in a couple more posts when he could have easily let it drop. Makes him look better to me.

What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.

Originally Posted by Oz

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts.

Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

Also, for the record, I don't hate banter. I just find recapping banter suspiciously pointless, and when I'm asked to be a troll, I do it my way.

Ok, for reasons stated above:

++Ozban