Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[McCaber]

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

That's where I've been leaning since the most suspicious to me had been Copper...the asking me how I felt about Nerwen's translation struck me as rather odd, but last several posts have relieved general feelings of oddity.

Legate's been making a history of voting early for me...frankly, I think I've just become an easy target for him when he hasn't got much of an idea/hold on anyone else playing...as annoying as it can be, I'll forgive the behavior today.

[Inziladun]

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

x/d with Boro

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

You're one of the two players I suspected the most toDay (albeit not on great grounds, but I don't have anything better to go by), and I decided not to vote for G55. I want to play straightforwardly here, and not be cowardly by failing to vote for the person I suspect the most, even if that means casting a second vote and perhaps looking suspicious because of that.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to be present through the DL, but I can't see much that will change my mind today...

++sally

No point in waiting...get a few names out there and see what happens/others decide to do.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.

There's a possibility of that. Based on the few suspicions we've had toDay, she seems like the most reasonably suspected person at the moment.

Yes, I can see how she might be a wolf, in which case all or most of the suspicions are justified and likely true.

Yes, I can also see her as an innocent making... what's the word? Not slips. Not mistakes. Just saying things that others could turn against you, when it's just a coincidence.

I would leave Cop for now, because while she looks like she's bandwagoning, it also looks like she's being bandwagoned. Plus, I haven't changed my mind about Legate. Or my guts feelings. Take your pick.

EDIT: xed with Cop and Boro

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

You're one of the two players I suspected the most toDay (albeit not on great grounds, but I don't have anything better to go by), and I decided not to vote for G55. I want to play straightforwardly here, and not be cowardly by failing to vote for the person I suspect the most, even if that means casting a second vote and perhaps looking suspicious because of that.

I can respect that, though it still looks opportunistic, much more so than Lommy's.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I would leave Cop for now, because while she looks like she's bandwagoning, it also looks like she's being bandwagoned. Plus, I haven't changed my mind about Legate. Or my guts feelings. Take your pick.

I don't see how Coppermirror is the subject of a bandwagon, unless I've missed something.

[Inziladun]

Legate does seem a little off, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't see how Coppermirror is the subject of a bandwagon, unless I've missed something.

Not in the sense that she's gaining votes, but that peope are sticking suspicion stickers onto her one after the other. A bandwagon of suspicion before the bandwagon of votes.

[Eönwë]

I'm currently considering the idea of Boro-Legate pack, but I'm not sure they'd be that obvious when there're only two of them.

Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far.


edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.

[Coppermirror]

Wow, we got lucky there. Good work, ranger.

I have to leave now, but I wrote up a post last Night. Looks as if I don't need to edit it in response to someone getting killed overNight after all. I'm just going to post it unabridged and head off to do Christmassy things.

Unabridged post:

What a tragedy! I'm terrified.

To think that Boro the Reindeer and [name] have been killed too. Truly, we must work harder to erase the Doom of Christmastown. I think we should beware those who haven't said their piece...but nobody seems to listen to ghosts around here.

Anyway, analysis. I wrote this up overNight, so it isn't up to date and may contain errors. I also didn't have time to finish it, so it only covers a few people, and I'll be so annoyed if one of those gets killed off overNight. Ideally I'd have looked at everyone. But for the people I have covered, I've got a few questions I'd like to have cleared up.

A pity that we lost Boro. Given our odds, it was quite likely that we'd lose an innocent yesterDay, so we can at least be happy that we lost an ordo rather than a gifted. But it really sucks, because Boro looked innocent and was being useful. He was actively participating and even suggesting new ways for people to discuss things.

I was a bit curious about people's choices for suspicion yesterDay, so I went through and counted how many posts each person made. Here's the post count from yesterDay (and a vote count, although not in order of timing):

Sally: 1 post (and no vote!)
Shasta: 10 posts (Voted Boro)
G55: 14 (Voted Legate)
Coppermirror: 14 (Voted Inzil)
Eonwe: 4 (Voted Boro)
Morsul: 6 (and no vote!)
Nerwen: 2 (and no vote!)
Inzil: 14 (Voted Boro)
Boro: 14 (Voted Sally)
McCaber: 6 (Voted Sally)
Thinlomien: 7 (Voted Inzil)
Legate: 7 (Voted Boro)

Accordingly, if we were simply going by voting for the most visible players, the biggest targets should have been...G55, me, Inzil, and Boro-innocent. All of whom came under a decent quantity of suspicion yesterDay, for one reason or another, and Boro who got voted off. I think we've messed up Day 1 rather badly in this regard. On the other hand, what were we supposed to do – suspect people who hadn't posted yet much? McCaber and Boro-innocent both ended up voting for Sally. They were both criticised for doing so, and I can see why. But, maybe they were right to take that tactic.

Three people haven't even voted. All of those people were among those who didn't post much, so there's little to go on there. Morsul mentioned in the admin post that RL things would cause problems for his participation, so I'll give him a free pass on that (although since he's also not going to be around much toDay, heaven help us if he's a wolf). Nerwen and Sally, though...

Given that three people didn't vote and that many people didn't post much at all, toDay I will be very wary of the possibility that all of the wolves could be among the non-voting and not-posting-much people. 5 people posted a decent amount, and 4 of those survived. 7 people remain who didn't post nearly as much.

Inzil

Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.)

Inzil started to suspect me at the point when I said I was voting for him, thinking it was a bandwagon. The reason Inzil appeared to suspect G55 was because she was wanting to pick over the are-they-coded posts in the open. For Legate, the reasoning is as quoted below. None of these seem totally unreasonable reasons, given the low amount of serious discussion yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can respect that, though it still looks opportunistic, much more so than Lommy's.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Legate does seem a littleoff, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.

Inzil, who is the person you suspected the most yesterDay?

I'm not sure whether I still suspect Inzil. Going through his later posts in more detail and at my leisure, there's actually nothing in particular there which stands out as suspicious. Hmm. Okay, no. I'll revise my opinion: I don't find Inzil nearly as suspicious toDay as I did yesterDay when I voted. If I was voting right now, I wouldn't vote for him (I'd probably vote for McCaber or even a submarine). But this isn't the same as thinking that he's innocent. Though seeing Inzil's reaction was helpful, I do regret that he had to vote for someone else to save himself from a three way tie, since if he is a wolf that would have been great cover for his voting choice.

McCaber

Originally Posted by McCaber

Right now I'm probably going to vote sally, but I'm willing to give her another hour or so to show up. Silence is most assuredly not golden here, but will just get you a lump of coal in your stocking.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Honestly, he [Eonwe] was so quiet I'd forgotten he existed. But seeing as he's contributed since then, he has deferred my wrath toDay.

I've given her an hour, and still nothing.
++sally
Let that be a warning to those who would remain silent.

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style?


Sally – nothing to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted once.

Nerwen – hardly anything to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted twice.

Morsul – very little to go on. Didn't vote, and posted 6 times, mostly without substance at the bantering end of the game.

Legate:

Initially, Legate wanted us to look for Cobblers and people trying to respond to them. He didn't have a huge range of suspicions, but did suspect Boro.

Legate's suspicion of Boro-innocent's behaviour was hard to follow, and he ended up voting for Boro-innocent based on that. The vote was the first vote of the Day. If his suspicions were genuine, thinking that Boro was not acting like himself and being “really strangely noncommited at first and somewhat shifty now “ would be sufficient grounds for a vote. But I can't quite understand why Boro seemed shifty to Legate.

Legate, could you explain it a bit more, as concisely as possible?

On gut feelings yesterDay, I had considered Legate suspicious, but now I'm not so sure. But I would like to know more about the suspicion of Boro, even though Boro said that Legate's in the habit of voting for him.

In response to some things yesterDay which I didn't have time to comment on then:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I can understand that those were the two you found most suspicious, but it seemed to me that you had decided "Okay, these are the two I'm going to decide between" and basically left everyone else alone. I didn't really see a reason to have narrowed the field to two people so early.

Oh, okay, I see your reasoning now. But I think you were being too hasty in that line of thought. My vote was placed when the deadline was an hour and a half away. I don't consider that an early vote at all. I did mention about half an hour before I placed my vote that I intended to vote for Inzil, and that gave him a chance to respond. Placing a vote at that time also allowed me to watch and see how people would react, since I ended up being able to stay around to watch until the deadline. I mentioned this before, but I don't like it when all the meat of a Day's discussion is limited to the last few minutes, especially a Day 1.

If I have time later I'll look at yesterDay's posts for Shasta, G55, Eonwe and Thinlomien too, although by the time I get around to it it's likely that we'll have a bunch of new things to analyse. I'm too busy toDay for much.

I should note that I do find it suspicious when people show up close to the end without seeming to try contributing beforehand. Going by that on its own, Eonwe looks the worst.

I don't want to lead everyone off on a wild goose chase, but I'm still really confused about what Boromir was talking about yesterDay when he thought that there was something going on between me, G55 and Legate. Unfortunately he's not here to answer. I thought that maybe he was the cobbler when he posted that, but since he's a proven ordo now, his suspicion must have been genuine. And I have no idea what it could have been based on, which is annoying. Does anybody else have a guess?

Happy Christmas Eve to you all. We must not forget our Christmas cheer, even in these tragic times.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.)

When Boro got that second vote, he was the one put on the chopping block. No one else really suspected Inzil, so I'm not sure there wasn't some ulterior motive. Reasonable enough explanation, but I'm still wondering why he went with Boro over sally.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style?

Part of that is that I only realized the game had started like three hours before deadline. Part is that there really isn't much to say on Day 1. And part of it is just that I'm not naturally a very talkative person. I'm trying to get better at that, though.

[Coppermirror]

Rolling up my long, ghostly sleeves now...

I may be dragged out somewhere for an outing this afternoon, and I'm not sure when that will end, so there's a risk I'll miss the deadline. If I can decide on a vote in the next hour or so, I'll place it. Which means I've got to try to get through all this really quickly.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Voting record:
Lommy--> Inzil (1)
Legate--> Boro (1) *Not bolded
Cop--> Inzil (2)
Boro--> Sally (1)
McCaber--> Sally (2)
Steve--> Boro (2)
G55--> Legate (1)
Inzil--> Boro (3)
Shasta--> Boro (4)

Looking only at the voting record, the only person we know to be innocent was Boro, and he got 4 votes.

Of these:

Legate - hasn't shown up yet toDay, and so hasn't been able to answer my question asking for clarification about the reasons for finding Boro suspicious. I'm a bit in limbo on this issue, accordingly.

Eonwe - had been considering the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack. Other than that I can't seem to find his reasoning for his Boro vote. This is a bit unfortunate.

Eonwe, why did you vote for Boro? (...Based on what he said earlier, there's a big risk he won't be around to answer this.)

Inzil - says it was because he didn't want to vote for Sally, who mostly hadn't showed up and didn't have an opportunity to defend herself. That's not an unreasonable stance.

Shasta - voted right after Inzil did. They posted in the same minute, so it's possible that (a) he thought he was breaking the tie and hadn't seen Inzil's vote, or (b) he did see it, but wasn't prepared to raise up any other candidate (Sally or Inzil ) to three votes and force a tie/he needed to cast a vote.

His reasoning is just that Boro should have known better than to vote for somebody who wasn't there. He also didn't want to vote for any of the top three candidates. That's not unreasonable either.

It's difficult to draw a conclusion from all this. Legate drew a target on Boro for reasons I don't understand, and Eonwe followed up with a second vote based on reasoning I can't find (other than the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack).

For a moment I'll throw around the possibility of a Legate-Eonwe pack (and guys, I'm not accusing you here, just imagining scenarios). Legate apparently has a habit of voting for Boro early on in games. Knowing that and that Boro is innocent, they could use that as cover for a Boro vote, and Eonwe could follow on with it...But if that was planned out, would Eonwe omit to give any firm reasoning? Wolf-Eonwe wouldn't want to say "I suspect him for the same reason Legate does", but I find it hard to believe that someone would skimp on finding another reason. Provisionally, I'm going to conclude it's not likely that we have a Legate-Eonwe pack here. It's also just not likely that two wolves would vote for the same person when they're only a two-wolf pack.

Ah, and I see as I write this that Legate has posted with his reasoning for the Boro vote. I'll have to read that.

Nice pictures, G55!

[Galadriel55]

Cop, the Modess has kindly extended the Day for another day. You don't have to worry about voting.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Speaking of this, to transit to the present, I still have similar feeling about some people's posts, similar like I did yesterDay. Mainly G55's posts sometimes give rather "fake" vibe, and partially also Cop - namely of the current issues, I am not 100% sure what to make of Cop's "pre-prepared" post. I am fine with somebody writing a post overNight when they know they e.g. are not going to have time to write in the Morning, even though of course we could debate how fishy is that since anyway, nobody except for Wolves knows who is going to die (thus how the mechanics of the game will look in the morning), and, perhaps more importantly, nobody except Wolves knows whether they are going to survive till morning - so what if it's a waste of time, huh? Of course, it can be only a nice brain exercise - but more importantly, I am not sure if I'm buying what Cop did, apparently making a point of having a pre-prepared post and showing off to us all that it contains the pre-made line "oh, poor Boro and [name]". Sort of looks to me like something a Wolf could do as "look everyone, here's a proof I didn't know who was going to die toNight, and I am proving it by showing you that in my draft, there is a blank spot I intended to fill in after the narration has been posted". I think an innocent could have pretty well just deleted the second name from the sentence after finding out that no [name] died, but this looks to me like intentional effort of trying to prove one's innocence.

I get you. *nods* I get you. I would generally agree with what you say. Except that I have myself written more posts overNight as an innocent than as a wolf (). But I hear what you're saying about the [name] part of it. Can't say it proves Cop's guilt or, well, proves anything, but I suppose it adds to the air of... uncertainty? Do you get me?

I will leave that for Cop to answer herself. But I must say, I will consider the points you bring up, Legate.



I'm glad you both enjoyed the pictures.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Cop, the Modess has kindly extended the Day for another day. You don't have to worry about voting.

I totally didn't see the extension until now...

Still find McCab suspicious but obviously now that I have time I may find my vte unfortunate, as one big purpose of the vote was to avoid modfiring befre DL tonight(as I thought it was still tonight and whether or not I'd be back was in question...)

I hope this post is straight forward enough if not:


Silti löytää McCab epäluuloinen, mutta ilmeisesti nyt minulla on aikaa saatan löydän VTE valitettavaa, sillä yksi iso tarkoituksena äänestys oli välttää modfiring befre DL tänä iltana (koska ajattelin, että se oli vielä tänä iltana ja onko olisin takaisin oli kyseessä ...)***

***Courtesy of Google-Translate

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I totally didn't see the extension until now...

Modlote posted it only after your vote, I think.

[Coppermirror]

Back, reading, and trying to put together a current chart categorising suspicions. Looks as if worryingly little has happened since I was here last.