Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Merry Christmas all, or belated ones, hope you have enjoyed/are still enjoying it... Also, because of Christmas (as I'm sure for many of us), I am not going to be here posting anything long (I will be around more once again later), so for now only a few notes...

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Legate, could you explain it a bit more, as concisely as possible?

It was several factors, of course. Basically the first thing about Boro that raised my attention, was him not behaving the way I am used to him behaving. He tends to be active and poking around people, especially when he's innocent (previously I had actually caught Borowolf a few times based on that, resp. once he killed me because he had succeeded in talking me out of it). Anyway, that was the starter, though at that point he wasn't alone - well, basically nobody had spoken anything actual at that point. But he was one of those I had expected to say something of value (given that it was like 5 hours before DL and midnight my time!). What sort of moved this further were his replies to me, which, looking back, is actually what I think had cost him my vote. But his posting just looked "dishonest" to me, or however should I call it, it simply had the sort of fabricated tone: he started really strong defense - it wasn't the content of it, but the manner. Especially that "why would you vote person X instead of you"-list idea seemed really fabricated, I still get that feeling when I remember it even now. And well, then I had to vote.

Speaking of this, to transit to the present, I still have similar feeling about some people's posts, similar like I did yesterDay. Mainly G55's posts sometimes give rather "fake" vibe, and partially also Cop - namely of the current issues, I am not 100% sure what to make of Cop's "pre-prepared" post. I am fine with somebody writing a post overNight when they know they e.g. are not going to have time to write in the Morning, even though of course we could debate how fishy is that since anyway, nobody except for Wolves knows who is going to die (thus how the mechanics of the game will look in the morning), and, perhaps more importantly, nobody except Wolves knows whether they are going to survive till morning - so what if it's a waste of time, huh? Of course, it can be only a nice brain exercise - but more importantly, I am not sure if I'm buying what Cop did, apparently making a point of having a pre-prepared post and showing off to us all that it contains the pre-made line "oh, poor Boro and [name]". Sort of looks to me like something a Wolf could do as "look everyone, here's a proof I didn't know who was going to die toNight, and I am proving it by showing you that in my draft, there is a blank spot I intended to fill in after the narration has been posted". I think an innocent could have pretty well just deleted the second name from the sentence after finding out that no [name] died, but this looks to me like intentional effort of trying to prove one's innocence.

From new things toDay I am feeling somewhat uncertain about Steve (his replies to McCab), though that's more just the air of it, nothing specific. And I still feel more or less genuine vibes from Morsul especially, even though I'd join to ask him to make his thoughts a bit clearer to us (and his vote seems a bit rushed, but apparently he thought DL might come).

Looking forward to see more people posting in the following time, also there are many I would like to form my opinion more strongly about (people with less show yesterDay like Shasta, people with less input yesterDay like Zil, people with no vote, like Nerwen and sally).
Like I said, I am not promising to be around extensively, but I hope to chime in at least once or twice tomorrow my time.

EDIT: x-ed with G55's very nice themed pictures

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am fine with somebody writing a post overNight when they know they e.g. are not going to have time to write in the Morning, even though of course we could debate how fishy is that since anyway, nobody except for Wolves knows who is going to die (thus how the mechanics of the game will look in the morning), and, perhaps more importantly, nobody except Wolves knows whether they are going to survive till morning - so what if it's a waste of time, huh? Of course, it can be only a nice brain exercise - but more importantly, I am not sure if I'm buying what Cop did, apparently making a point of having a pre-prepared post and showing off to us all that it contains the pre-made line "oh, poor Boro and [name]". Sort of looks to me like something a Wolf could do as "look everyone, here's a proof I didn't know who was going to die toNight, and I am proving it by showing you that in my draft, there is a blank spot I intended to fill in after the narration has been posted". I think an innocent could have pretty well just deleted the second name from the sentence after finding out that no [name] died, but this looks to me like intentional effort of trying to prove one's innocence.

It's totally normal for me to write posts in advance of the Day beginning, if one can call things normal based upon only three games. For example, if you check the first game I played, where I was an ordo (relevant post here: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=67) you'll see that I used a pre-prepared post on Day 2 then, although that time I did have the time to edit it. I wrote that one even though I thought there were 50% odds I'd be the one killed overNight.

I would actually have had to do more editing than just deleting the name from the sentence there. The surrounding lines would have had to be re-written too ("What a tragedy! I'm terrified" doesn't fit at all when the Ranger's just made a great save, does it? And so forth...), and on the evening of Christmas Eve with a heck of a lot still to do, I was relieved that because of the Ranger-save I could slap an unabridged on my prepared post and go away ASAP without checking through it and making alterations.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Cop, the Modess has kindly extended the Day for another day. You don't have to worry about voting.

Yes! Thank you, Loslote-Modess. That means I can take my time.

[Inziladun]

Here momentarily. It's been a long day, with family visits unfortunately mingled with dangerous weather situations. All seems to be quieting down now though, and I plan to be around much more tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm going to settle down and look at the voting record from yesterDay, go over the people I missed covering in my earlier post toDay, think about toDay so far, and try to catch us a wolf.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm not sure how far I'll get with that before I go to sleep, but I'll make sure to do that when I wake up if nOh, I get it then. So, it's not just the fact I voted for you but that I didn't plainly mention a suspicion of you before she cast her vote for you. That's fair enough considering how little there was to by for anyone yesterDay. Although since Lommy was the first voter and few people at that point had put down any serious suspicion of anyone, that reasoning would have risked anyone making a second vote for you looking dodgy.

Your explanation later in that post seems reasonable, I guess. On the minus side, I tend to be suspicious of people who make a point of saying "Let's get those wolves!", as if to spotlight their innocence. I will say you probably wouldn't be my primary candidate for a vote at this time.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I do find it a bit perturbing that anyone took that as actual speculation seeking out the Seer/a hint for wolves. I was aware that there's a taboo for obvious reasons on mentioning Seer-hints one thinks one's found, but didn't realise that it went as far as mentioning things that have been considered and basically discarded as a possibility (but which are still relevant to the discussion), to the point where people would rephrase that as "oh, I think [living player] might be giving seer hints" as you just have and which Nerwen did before (as "Hey, wolves, look what I found!"). I would find that sort of rephrasing suspicious of itself, but a few more people seemed to think the point was fair. Looks as if I've misjudged the level of paranoia for that element of the game.

Nerwen made a good point addressing this.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Can you say that again please, because I think I'm missing something? What accusation? I do not believe I've accused Boro of wolvery at any point.

I was curious about that myself.

[Coppermirror]

I'm still reading through the earlier posts and drawing impressions from those, but seeing the current trend towards G55 votes, I'd really like to know what G55 has to say about that. Could you respond to the suspicions that you're not acting like an innocent G55, if you're around?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm still reading through the earlier posts and drawing impressions from those, but seeing the current trend towards G55 votes, I'd really like to know what G55 has to say about that. Could you respond to the suspicions that you're not acting like an innocent G55, if you're around?

I have responded to the clear-cut suspicions (or some at any rate... have I missed any? I can address those if you bring them up), but what can I tell you if I don't sound innocent enough for you?

That's a very easy reason to get me lynched by. And not something I can prove someone wrong about (no, I do sound innocent! - doesn't work, does it?). And I have been lynched for something similar in the past.

Tell me, do I sound fake to you? Just out of curiosity. Because, you know, you don't have to base your decision off a trend, whether it be in the negative or positive way.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Tell me, do I sound fake to you? Just out of curiosity. Because, you know, you don't have to base your decision off a trend, whether it be in the negative or positive way.

I've just got to your name on the analysis list I'm doing and am just beginning to look through your posts now, so no, I haven't yet got a decent opinion on whether or not you're looking innocent. From what I've heard before and what you're saying now, you have been lynched while innocent for just sounding "wrong" a fair amount of times before.

You do seem a bit worked up, but that could be caused by getting two votes so far, and it also seems to me that a decent amount of people are cooler-headed as wolves than they are as innocents.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Back and reading. I do have to say my initial impression of the G55-wagon is that of... convenience, almost, although I can hardly blame Legate for wanting more content from people. I'll go through and do a more detailed post momentarily.

[Galadriel55]

Ah, screw all my plots and schemes, they never work anyways.

I am an Ordo.

On Day One I thought I'd make myself look like the Seer, so as to distract the wolves the following Night. However, all my suspicions have been genuine and very true. I have indeed suspected Legate based on feel. And I do believe I was the target last Night for that very reason.

ToDay, based on that belief (and, objectively speaking, I was the most Seerish looking person around), I decided to play Cobbler and try to get a reaction from Legate.

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm saying?

Plus, there are instances where I sensed Legate hinting at me. Especially the "fake" posts...


So, my conclusions, based on the above. Legate is a wolf. Last Night he was thinking that I have dreamt him on Night1 (which I did not, but he didn't know that). ToDay, as a means of trying to explore the possibilities this gave me, I did my best to dissuade him of my Seerness and persuade him that I am the Cobbler, which was also kinda difficult because I wanted to get him lynched.

Who is his mate and who is the real cobbler? Dunno. Nerwen and Lommy are worth looking into, but Lommy doesn't look like a potential mate, more like a cobbler. And Eonwe, Cabbie, and Zil are under a questionmark.


So, here's my proposition. Lynch Legate toDay. If he's not a wolf you can always burn me at the stake toMorrow. Deal?

++Legate



EDIT: xed since my last

[McCaber]

After getting off of work and doing some rereading, I have to rescind my accusations of G55. I misremembered what happened yesterDay and didn't do enough study on the holidays.

Legate, on the other hand, only gets worse while looking back. He jumped all over Boro yesterDay and really didn't do that good of a job explaining himself. I didn't want to believe it, but he looked like a wolf confident that he could get rid of a tough enemy early on a weak case.

[satansaloser2005]

Don't trust:
Legate
Dun

Shifty:
Cop
McCaber

Unconcerned at present:
Lommie
Gal
Morsul
Nerwen

Will not vote toDay:
Shasta
Steve


The top two categories are open for business.


EDIT: x'd since the last McCaber

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That said, I'm rather concerned the suspicion around her may be partly built on McCaber's statement about her having been "the one who rolled with that accusation [i.e. Boro's being a wolf] and made it stick"– which doesn't seem to be what happened at all.

Well, I don't know. A lot of it seems to have been based on feel. No one really mentioned Cabbie's early post as a part of the basis of their suspicion of me.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The top two categories are open for business.

Don't know about Zil, but I won't mind a Legate lynch at all.

[Nerwen]

Just a note: I see various people have mentioned my lack of posting. The fact is, a Sugar-Plum Fairy has a *lot* to do at Christmas– sometimes not even murders can get in the way of that.

Originally Posted by G55

I'm still reading through the earlier posts and drawing impressions from those, but seeing the current trend towards G55 votes, I'd really like to know what G55 has to say about that. Could you respond to the suspicions that you're not acting like an innocent G55, if you're around?

And how is G55 supposed to answer that? "Yes, I am so!"? Really, that looks like a very calculating post, and does not make me think better of you, Cop.

But since you ask– I think what they are mainly talking about is– well the same thing I noted about you, actually– a general air of self-consciousness, as though she's been posting more with a view to "looking good" than anything else.

That said, I'm rather concerned the suspicion around her may be partly built on McCaber's statement about her having been "the one who rolled with that accusation [i.e. Boro's being a wolf] and made it stick"– which doesn't seem to be what happened at all.

EDIT:X'd since Cop at #192.

[Coppermirror]

Wow, with what's been going on in the last few posts, that changes things a bit. Finally something really interesting has happened!

So I'm going to go ahead and post my incomplete list of suspicions and do the rest in a bit, otherwise it's all going to be 100% out of date by the time I finish writing.

Sally - Had one post including well-reasoned analysis, but has posted very little aside from that. She's said she'll be posting later with a suspicions list, which is good. On the basis of her posts so far I'm not very concerned about her.

Shasta - I'm on the fence about Shasta. I've seen an innocent Shasta and a guilty Shasta before, but in this game I've been unable to draw a conclusion so far about which he's acting most like. I really need to see more posts from him.

Morsul- Not particularly worried about Morsul, although he doesn't seem to have been posting a lot, and that makes him much harder to analyse.

Nerwen- Going by gut feelings about her tone, and having seen a few more posts from her, my concerns have lessened a bit. I'm not getting especially suspicious vibes from her, and her arguments are mostly hanging together. (Then again, if she were guilty my impression is that she'd probably make coherent arguments too.)

But looking through her posts toDay one by one, I see there hasn't been a huge amount of content (proviso: this has not exactly been Super Content Day for anyone). She addresses a number of points about my posts in reasonable depth, and considers McCaber, but there's not a lot of discussion about other people to consider, and that makes her a lot harder to judge. She said she'd be back later with more thoughts, though.

G55 - One of the most active players. Posted a gut suspicions list and voted for Legate. Overall, I was suspicious of her early on Day 1, but thought as the Day progressed that her gut suspicions looked genuine, so I decided not to vote for her.

ToDay, overall, she looked a bit erratic at times, most notably in post #185, and seemed a bit worked up.

And with G55's latest post, that knocks most previous views of her out of the water.

At first glance I'm actually inclined to believe her. But even if she's an ordo as claimed, it doesn't necessarily follow that she's correct and that Legate is a wolf. I'm going to think this over.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And how is G55 supposed to answer that? "Yes, I am so!"? Really, that looks like a very calculating post, and does not make me think better of you, Cop.

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

In particular, Legate had been saying that G55's conduct was strange in her last few posts before his vote for her. And really, post #185 looked a little odd, as if G55 was saying she was the Cobbler. She ended up not addressing that point in her reply to me.

And now with G55's big statement...G55 playing a pretend-Seer and pretend-Cobbler so far actually does fit pretty well with things so far. Boro thought he saw something either good or bad going on with me, G55 and Legate. Maybe it was fake Seer-hints from G55 implicating Legate that he saw, and me coincidentally backing off from G55 around then?

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

So...I think I'll believe G55 toDay. But that doesn't mean I'll vote for Legate just like that. I'm going to go now to look through Legate's posts to see if I can see the dynamic that G55 claims is there.

Edit: cross-posted with all of this page so far.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After getting off of work and doing some rereading, I have to rescind my accusations of G55. I misremembered what happened yesterDay and didn't do enough study on the holidays.

Legate, on the other hand, only gets worse while looking back. He jumped all over Boro yesterDay and really didn't do that good of a job explaining himself. I didn't want to believe it, but he looked like a wolf confident that he could get rid of a tough enemy early on a weak case.

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am an Ordo.

On Day One I thought I'd make myself look like the Seer, so as to distract the wolves the following Night. However, all my suspicions have been genuine and very true. I have indeed suspected Legate based on feel. And I do believe I was the target last Night for that very reason.

ToDay, based on that belief (and, objectively speaking, I was the most Seerish looking person around), I decided to play Cobbler and try to get a reaction from Legate.

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm sayiing?

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

But now..would a wolf try this? The Cobbler might, but why?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Don't trust:
Legate
Dun

Shifty:
Cop
McCaber

Unconcerned at present:
Lommie
Gal
Morsul
Nerwen

Will not vote toDay:
Shasta
Steve


The top two categories are open for business.

Reasons for these?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

Not great– but a bit higher than usual in this particular village, simply because of the low numbers. You do have to factor that in.

EDIT:X'd since G55.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

I'd simply been leaning toward an evil you, and all this needs digesting.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

I thought that too, but one of the votes came from an already-suspicious-looking Legate probably trying to move some of the heat off of himself.

EDIT: x'd with Inzil

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

Which he indeed wasn't:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For instance, think I'm blind to the fact Legate, Copper, and G55 are up to something...but whether that be good or bad I can't quite determine yet. But given enough time, usually you can tell soon enough.

Though you are probably right about what he was referring to... unless he has somehow swapped accounts with Shasta.

Edit: xed with Zil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

It actually is, yes– but you see that really surprised me, because it's hard to defend oneself against something as vague as "feels wrong" or "not posting like her usual self". I may have mistaken your intention there, but I thought you might be setting her up to make an ineffectual defence that would then give you an excuse to lynch her.

EDIT: X'd since Coppermirror at #203.

[Coppermirror]

A list of suspicions towards the end of the Day. I think these are a good idea for people to do. Of course, my suspicions are likely to change a lot depending on the outcome of toDay's voting.

Not especially suspicious:
Morsul
Sally

Vaguely suspicious:
Nerwen
Shasta

Reasonably suspicious:
Thinlomien
Eonwe
Inzil
McCaber

Really suspicious:
Legate

Either an ordo or a very elaborate Cobbler:
G55. I don't believe it's possible for her to be a wolf, based on what we found out to Day.

I see there have been a few posts since I wrote this, so I'll look at those before placing my vote.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Was this ever responded to? I feel like this is a good point.

Yes. I said earlier that firstly, this was the person I said I'm planning to vote for a few hours or so, and secondly, he was not entirely without suspicion, and thirdly, some people did not vote yet.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

I don't get the Rikae quote reference, but that post was me trying to get Legate to, you know, establish closer contact, so to say.


Anyways, my suspicions:

I'm pretty calm about Sally, Shasta and Morsul. Steve and Cabbie are complete enigmas. Cop doesn't strike me as very wolfish, but then other people bring up good points about her, which I don't necessarily agree to wholeheartedly, but there is reason behind them. In other words, I'm torn. I've had so many changes of heart about Zil these two Days that I'm still a bit dizzy; I have a very conflicted opinion. Nerwen seems like her regular self. Thing is, she's darn good at looking like her typical self as a wolf. So when I have time I will be taking a closer look at her interactions with others moreso than the contents of her posts. And Lommy - I'm quite suspicious of her, but somehow the idea of a Lommy-Legate pack doesn't seem exactly fitting based on some of their interactions toDay. I'll be taking a closer look at this one too.

And, of course, I suspect Legate heavily of being a wolf.

EDIT: xed since 229

[McCaber]

Votes:
Morsul --> McCaber (1)
Lommy --> G55 (1)
Legate --> G55 (2)
G55 --> Legate (1)

Yet to vote:
sally
Nerwen
Shasta
CM
Eonwe
Inzil
McCaber