Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Brinniel]

Day 2

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think the circumstances require a Sally + Steve theory to explain them, no. It's always likely enough that a substantial bandwagon on an innocent includes a wolf. If I had to pick *one* of them right now, I think Steve would be my guess– though that's more a feeling at the moment (and, to be fair, I may be picking it up from other people– I need to read back over yesterDay).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So at the moment I can see myself voting for Lottie, Nerwen or Zil unless something drastic happens.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I basically concur with this, though I think I prefer Pom over Steve.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?

---

Thinking back at past Days, I considered that perhaps Nerwen's suspicion of Eonwe might make them less likely to be packmates. But that she decided to vote Pom over him at a time when Eonwe was in the running to get lynched is suspicious. Eonwe adding her in his list of lynch candidates also indicates the possible baddies suspecting each, but not enough to get them lynched tactic.

EDIT: X-ed with Morsul

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Morsul

ratio: 5-2 we lynch me, ratio 4-2 night phase maybe 3-2 dream reveals km or innocent meaning you know your two km. then two lynches later a win.

You are assuming Elendil's dream would go to an innocent which is not necessarily true.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You are assuming Elendil's dream would go to an innocent which is not necessarily true.

that's true just remembered Moddess changed the rule on that.

I stand by what I said yesterday Sally is innocent therefor I believe Manwe and Eonwe the We's are evil.

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm going to go through Lottie's posts tomorrow jst to make sure I'm satisfied of her innocence though frankly feeling really good about her.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Morsul

that's true just remembered Moddess changed the rule on that.

It's always been that way. The rule she changed is that the dream can't go to a known innocent.

[the phantom]

Connectivity problems.... If I don't show up again know that's why, and I'll go someplace in the morning to get online if I have to.

[the phantom]

Ugh. There. At least got those two done and posted before my connection went out yet again. I'll look at Lottie and Morsul tomorrow.

G'night.

[Brinniel]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Morsul

The other person who worries me a bit is Nerwen not much suspicious but almost too clean. Besides which she has a record of flying under my radar...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, and there has been something a bit "off" about Morsul's posting since the start– at least, I was thinking about voting him even before I logged on again– only, I'm not sure about the wisdom of bringing another candidate into play *now*.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Morsul

So Nerwen posts a bit discussing Phantom's plan.

A while later posts her list then mentions suspicions on me but doesn't vote me because it'd be bad to bring another candidate forward.

Ends up not voting at all.

Not much to go on rather careful and with no vote nothing to really discuss about her. the play first day was very clean. As I've said before almost too clean.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for Morsul– we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is, but I don't think it's quite got to that point.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Morsul

So Pom was Ordo which means to me anyway Sally is evil Nerwen is evil and probably ZIl. Nerwen and Sally keep suspecting me but never vote me.

---

Again, there is the possibility of packmates suspecting each other, but not too much.

If Morsul is evil, Nerwen could've chosen to suspect him to distance herself from him, but attributed his suspiciousness to his typical playing style as a valid reason not to actually vote for him.

If Morsul is innocent, Nerwen could've been building up suspicion and perhaps was using the "we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is" comment to pave the way for an easy lynch further down the road.

[Brinniel]

Unless I missed something, Manwe and Nerwen never really share opinions of one another. Which tells us absolutely nothing.

[Morsul the Dark]

Before I go,
Nerwen's vote for Lottie.

If Lottie is evil it would have accomplished nothing except confirming Nerwen's guilt and therefore could be ignored

However what if Lottie Is a KM and Nerwen was deflecting attention away from her by using the above logic against us?

Or Lottie is innocent and Nerwen was playing an awful mind game.

I'm still fairly certain Lottie is innocent but that vote bugs me more than it should maybe.

[Morsul the Dark]

I didny realize I wouldn't be home in time for DL using wife's phone don't know how to use it so can't make brackets So ill make this proper at home but for now

vote eonwe vote

Please pardon typos

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's always been that way. The rule she changed is that the dream can't go to a known innocent.

I know but the rule change means that the dream would have to go to one of the three unknowns which would be mathematically Russian roulette I forgot the Known part, tha would've given you three candidates....

Actually clarification here please moddess if the gifted is in the four unknowns and one is eliminated can Erendil send her dream to one of the others because Erendil can safely assume the other two unknowns are KM, just have to pass that knowledge onto the rest of the group.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Actually clarification here please moddess if the gifted is in the four unknowns and one is eliminated can Erendil send her dream to one of the others because Erendil can safely assume the other two unknowns are KM, just have to pass that knowledge onto the rest of the group.

Well, currently there are 4 unknowns, so this should not be a problem - it's not a choice of sending a dream to a KM or not sending one at all. If such a situation will arise, though, that all innocents are known, yes, Elendil may send his dream to whoever. At the moment this is not the case, though.

[the phantom]

MANWE

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 1

As for Isuldur's power, I would say not to reveal himself- if we already have Amandil making himself known we're giving away two roles! You are wanting a very transparent game aren't you tp?

So, is he genuinely concerned, or is he a worried KM? I mean think- if Isildur reveals Day 1 what are the KMs going to do about it? If they go to kill him then they're letting Elendil and his dreamer & dream target have another night alive and allowing the next dream to take place, and they won't be killing the more dangerous Anarion either. I'm thinking a KM might be unnerved by such an open game.

He does not vote Day 1, and everyone knows how a hate submarines. It would've been a golden opportunity to give us some info.

Day 2 he starts right off incriminating Morsul, and also paints Sally as innocent.

Later in the day he actually compares Steve and Morsul-

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 2

It's like a clearer more concise version of Morsul to me. I'm inclined to give him a miss for today over Morsul who is just that more.."washy".

In the end he indeed votes for Morsul.

On Day 3 he oddly brings up my Day 1 vote for Lottie a couple times (this is before Lottie revealed with her dream).

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

you voted Lottie first day phantom

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

well i've lumped the morsul, sally, pom and steve in the wishy washy. You voted Lottie first night, and i've not looked at her properly yet (or Nerwen) and will do later toDay so will be back later.

What was the point of bringing up the Day 1 vote? Was he trying to get me to renew my suspicion of her? Trying to justify suspicion of her by pointing out that a known innocent had suspected her at one point? I'm not sure what's going on there....

Later that day he clearly indicates suspicion of Steve & Morsul, as both of them are placed in his theoretical pack whether or not Lottie is lying.

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

Pushing the spam aside, thank you Lottie for the revelation

Thanking Lottie for her dream I think strikes me as premature. How did he know she had dreamed? How did he know she wasn't a KM? How did he know Nerwen would be guilty?

I find that a bit suspicious.

CONCLUSION:

Given all of this in total a Manwe-Morsul pack seems increasingly unlikely. Manwe-Steve is possible, and so is Manwe-Lottie though perhaps slightly less likely.

[the phantom]

STEVE

Day 1 comes right in and says, "Phantom's probably good. But ya know- it's Phantom." Inconclusive in the end, and undecided on whether there should be a dream chain or a secret reveal. His pros & cons etc. are perfectly accurate of course.

He votes Eomer because he floated the idea of not voting at all Day 1. Two of our knowns voted that way too, so I guess I can't fault him for it.

On Day 2 says this of Pom-

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Her last two paragraphs here here might be defending Morsul a little too much. However, I don't think packmates would be that obvious.

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).

That's interesting. This is potentially a KM tying his fellow to an innocent- hence if Pom comes up innocent Morsul looks better or if Morsul comes up evil Pom looks worse.

Later he speaks generally favorably of Sally.

Then about Pom again (responding to Nerwen)-

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Well, there did seem to be a sudden wave of Pom-suspicion when I started that post, so I was expecting to see something incriminating, but couldn't. More surprise than anything.

Now I kind of get this, as that's how I felt after reading Pom. There was so much flowing that direction that I felt I needed to do a thorough reading of her and frankly I found nothing, hence that post I made announcing she had a free pass from me.

He then says he's willing to vote for Lottie, Nerwen, or Inzil. Already one packmate on the list. I doubt he places two there, particularly given the dangerous position Lottie placed him in on Day 1.

He votes after the deadline then. Why? Why hold the vote so late? No KMs were at risk anyway, so I suppose it's not incriminating in that regard, but perplexing.

He arrives late to the party on Day 3, which is too bad, as it would've been nice to see something from him before the bombs began dropping. He understands why Lottie was chosen for the dream. Seems to accept the dream premise with fairly open arms.

CONCLUSION:

Beyond the fact that he appears to not be allied with a Lottie-KM, there isn't much to say of him considering the amount he's posted. His votes are safe and the main suspicious thing he does is tie Pom to Morsul, which makes for a likelier pack than Steve and Manwe I would say.