Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Morsul the Dark]

I've been trying to figure out if Pom Is indeed evil what would defending me get him?

I think it's a reach But here goes: Pom defends me votes Sally I being inclined to help him because of his defense vote Sally try to get others to do the same. Sally lynched innocent. Day three I get set up as a fall guy lynched innocent finally day four Pom lynched. that would give potentially 4 more deaths before a KM is gone.

I think I'm leaning Pom right now but waiting to see more from others.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I've been trying to figure out if Pom Is indeed evil what would defending me get him?

I think it's a reach But here goes: Pom defends me votes Sally I being inclined to help him because of his defense vote Sally try to get others to do the same. Sally lynched innocent. Day three I get set up as a fall guy lynched innocent finally day four Pom lynched. that would give potentially 4 more deaths before a KM is gone.

I think I'm leaning Pom right now but waiting to see more from others.

How do you know Sally is innocent?

[Morsul the Dark]

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul

#6 - naive banter; however, right off the bat, we find this -

Originally Posted by Morsul

Moving along:

Does fourth make me the nonexistent CC?

We have 3King's Men right?

I'm grabbing at straws here, I realize that, but it's just weird to me that Morsul refers to the CC as "nonexistent" here (meaning he knows G55 took it out) but asks for clarification on the number of baddies... which ought to have been in the exact same place as the CC-removal.

#17 - compliments phantom.

#78 - posts list of three, agrees with "phantom's dream plan" but thinks revealing Isildur is a bad idea.

#112 - worried about Sally - "possible bandwagoning" - and Nerwen - "too clean" - while thinking Eonwe is "a bit fishy but not vote worthy." Votes Sally.

#124 - defends his vote a bit, compliments phantom again, and defends his double checking of the baddie numbers (which is still odd to me).

#141 - explains his real reason for voting Sally - he thought Eomer was Erendil, and Zil the dreamer that saw Sally's guilt. Sally has actually already said most of what needs to be said regarding this. It doesn't really hold up if one looks at it too close, but again, Morsul thinks like this all the time.

#144 - confused by Lottie a bit. Mentions Boro could have been the dreamer.

#154 - banter, obviousness, and phantom.

#163 - obviousness. Thinks probably only one KM voted for Eomer in response to Inzil.

#171 - gets it wrong regarding if Boro was the N1 dreamer.

#173 - obviousness.

#176 - nothing useful.

#179 - grr.

#182 - continues speculating as to which Gifted Boro was.

#199 - continues being Morsul.

#205 - speculates about Phantom's day 1 vote.

#207 - corrects Pom.

#210 - clarification, obviousness, and a Lottie-ism.

#213 - still thinks Nerwen is "too clean".

#216 - obviousness.

#219 - is Morsul, and thus confusingly, arbitrarily contrary. Sally's suspicions of him are better, and Pom defending him is suspicious.

#228 - questions Inzil about having missed where Phantom dreamed Brinn.

#231 - doesn't know who to vote for. Sally "seems innocent", Pom suspicious, but Lottie makes a good point relating to Pom's innocence.


Conclusions -

It's always hard for me to say anything about Morsul. He's almost always self-deprecatingly wrong, but it's practically impossible to tell how much of that is intentional (read: wolvish) and how much of that is just typical Morsul.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me

Ah! I'm sorry, I read your post wrong. Also, I don't think putting effort into formulating arguments against someone is ever a waste of time - even if they do draw suspicion like nothing else. After all, even if you are easy to lynch, Sally can't just vote for you without putting forward an argument and considering the issue carefully. You are easy to lynch, but that doesn't mean the people doing the lynching can afford to be complacent about it. If the lynchers are innocent, they'd better have a good reason for voting for you - actual reasons, not just 'he seems furry' - and if they're KM, they have to at least look like they've got reasons. Throwing away a vote on you is a sure sign of not really caring about the lynch - or just trying to lynch someone, anyone, who isn't a packmate.

All that goes to say, I don't suspect Sally for how much effort she's putting in. If anything, it makes her look more innocent to me.

EDIT: xed since Morsul

[satansaloser2005]

There's something you've forgotten, Phantom, dear, or at least something missing from your mathulations. In the event of Shasta's death, the role of the next gifted on the list is revealed to a random ordo. Thus, if Shasta dies, Isildur (or, if we're super lucky, Elendil, though I hold no hope for that) will be revealed to one of the innocents. So our future situation is in truth better than you describe it. Well, not for Shasta, I suppose....

[the phantom]

Okay, so going off my master list from yesterday here's the six people I came into the day slightly more willing to vote for-
Morsul, Lottie, Steve, Sally, Inzil, Nerwen

To go with my earlier voting hypotheses- Inzil and Sally receive elevation and Morsul, Lottie, and Steve receive slight elevation. Conveniently all 5 rank in my bottom 6 from yesterday.

That's either very encouraging or very worrisome, in that there is a clearly paved road leading to these five people. If the non-voters Manwe and Nerwen are the culprits (joining with Pom) then I'd say we're in trouble.

What do people think of reactions early today to various theories on what Boro was and why he was killed? That's what I'm looking at currently- post to come....

[Mänwe]

Sally's was rather dramatic..and it took her about 40 minutes to calm down and then post making light of the situation.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

There's something you've forgotten, Phantom, dear, or at least something missing from your mathulations. In the event of Shasta's death, the role of the next gifted on the list is revealed to a random ordo.

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

Fair enough. I was just thinking of the slight advantage of having, for instance, Agan know that Nog is Isildur. If Agan reveals it rather than Nog doing it himself, then we know (or rather, can likely conclude) we can trust both of them, rather than just the one. But yes, you're correct, and I'm certainly not saying I want Shasta killed. I don't want the mean men to hurt my favorite psychic.

EDIT: x'd since the quoted Phantom

[the phantom]

Early day reactions-

Originally Posted by Morsul

if Shasta dreamed Boro and boro was killed that means the KM anticipated Elendil's dream which in turn means they's is clever and I don't like clever wolves/KM they're tricky

Complimenting himself? It reads like it...

Originally Posted by Inzil

The assumption of failure here and accompanying "dismay" looks a bit odd. (speaking of Morsul)

I agree to this to an extent. I already said what I found suspicious about him yesterday, and his whole manner of saying things today is striking me the same way. But it's so darn consistent that I'm beginning to wonder if it's his style. In other words, I'm darn suspicious of Morsul, but simultaneously I worry that I could be perfectly backwards due to lack of familiarity.

Not to mention his formulations for yesterday's vote are in fact wrong (why he would make the vote choice given his assumption, as Sally pointed out I believe) and yet in the moment yesterday it's believable that he'd make a hasty gut-reaction mistake, where as if he is a KM he might've come up with a more logically sound reasoning in order to look better. Hmm.... I'm very undecided with Morsul. I think I'm leaning towards not voting for him today. At least if he stays alive longer I'll get to know him better for the future perhaps.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I find it difficult to see a Borondil putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.

This is what a KM would say if they were in fact not gunning for Elendil and yet being told that Boro clearly looked like Elendil. In other words, injured pride defending the kill choice.

Near the beginning when I wasn't entirely forthcoming with my Boro kill explanation this was said-

Originally Posted by Lottie

If it's something that'll help understand where we're at and what's going on, would you mind explaining it a bit for me?

Now it makes sense to request that I explain myself. Innocents want useful info naturally. But the fact that she qualified it by saying "Tell me IF it'd be useful to the village" seems somewhat fishy, as if she's a KM wanting a more accurate picture of how good her kill was, but she obviously can't request in that format thus she requests that I illuminate the situation "if it's for the good of the village". Interesting...

Now Sally- she jumps into examining people and doesn't get into the Boro issue much, which is a bit curious seeing how momentous it is. But of course for a KM the most important issue heading into today is setting up another innocent lynch, so really the Boro thing is just a big distraction.

There is much to think about...

[Brinniel]

Known Innocent:
Brinn
Phantom
Shasta

Feeling Good About:
Lottie - Her defense of Pom makes me feel better about her. I don't think she would so obviously defend her if they were both evil. And if Pom's innocent, why defend her when she could potentially be an easy lynch?
Sally - In general she seems okay and has given me no reason to suspect her. Her suspicion of Pom seems more genuine compared to others; for one thing, it's understandable for an innocent to automatically feel suspicious of someone who votes against them. I was wavering on placing Sally in the not sure category, but for now I'm more inclined to think her innocent.

Not Sure:
Manwe - I haven't heard enough from him to get an idea about which side he might be on.
Nerwen - I have no vibes on her right now.
Eonwe - I've seen people make points against him and perhaps he has made a few iffy comments. But at this point, I really can't tell whether he may be good or evil.

Watching:
Pom - She's on my watch list because I can see a possibility of her being evil, but I won't vote for her toDay for the reasons I stated previously.

Suspicious:
Inzil - His suspicions against Pom feel like they could be fabricated.
Morsul - Same as Inzil, plus he keeps making slips as others have pointed out. While I have seen innocents make many suspicious slips, it could be just as easily a sloppy KM.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Feeling Good AboutSally - In general she seems okay and has given me no reason to suspect her. Her suspicion of Pom seems more genuine compared to others; for one thing, it's understandable for an innocent to automatically feel suspicious of someone who votes against them. I was wavering on placing Sally in the not sure category, but for now I'm more inclined to think her innocent.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Suspicious:
Inzil - His suspicions against Pom feel like they could be fabricated.

I fail to see how Sally's suspicions of Pom are necessarily more justified than mine, when Pom voted for me YesterDay.

x/d with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Ok, looking through people's posts now. First up, Pom.

Day 1
Looking at her posts, she seems fine. I'm not sure about her list, but then again, it was Day 1, and there really was very little to go on. And despite what Shasta says, I actually think what she's saying about Inzil isn't unreasonable or hypocritical; what I think she's saying is that he's stating the obvious too much, and stepping back from his criticisms unnecessarily, which is fair enough.

Day 2
She's definitely more mixed today.

Good:

• She's the first person to mention phantom getting the N1 dream. Seems good in context, because people (myself included) were getting rather too caught up in the Boro-discussion, when really there was not much that could be known.
  

Eyebrow-raising:

• Her obsession with the Morsul-voters here, here and here. Three posts in a row about it is a bit (read: very) excessive, not giving much of a chance for any response (only Nerwen gets a chance in that timeframe). But then, is it something a wolf would do? Seems quite risky.
• Her last two paragraphs here here might be defending Morsul a little too much. However, I don't think packmates would be that obvious. I also can't judge fully until I've read his posts again.

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).

edit: x-ed since Lottie
edit: just realised formatting was terrible

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).

Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It's always hard for me to say anything about Morsul. He's almost always self-deprecatingly wrong, but it's practically impossible to tell how much of that is intentional (read: wolvish) and how much of that is just typical Morsul.

Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[Inziladun]

I feel I've pretty much been dead weight thus far, but I'm hopeful I can make up for it now that the weekend's here.

After thinking things over and seeing the most recent posts, I'm now more inclined to go with Steve over Pom. As noted, his was one of the Eomer votes, and it still seems likely at least one of those was evil. I know it isn't me, and seemingly not Brinn. That leaves Sally and Steve, and of the two Steve looks worse, based upon toDay's activity.
What tipped the balance was Nerwen's # 272. If Steve turns out evil, then Pom is pretty well implicated.

++Steve

x/d with all since # 273. Yes, I'm that slow.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

Well, there did seem to be a sudden wave of Pom-suspicion when I started that post, so I was expecting to see something incriminating, but couldn't. More surprise than anything.

edit: x-ed since me

[Mänwe]

Ive looked a bit at Sally, Steve and Morsul and so indirectly a smidge at Pom and Inzil and i'm in two minds behind that quagmire especially with phantoms list.

[Eönwë]

So at the moment I can see myself voting for Lottie, Nerwen or Zil unless something drastic happens.

[Eönwë]

Day 1

• Mostly lots of banter
• Accepts the three-person list immediately, but that is kind of inevitable for someone arriving so late. Doesn't say anything either way.
• Doesn't like the suggestion of using Isildur's power at all, especially on a Day 1. I suppose there are other schools of thought, but to me that's an opinion that seems to be on the side of the villagers. Of course, she certainly knows that, so it could be a nasty wolvish tactic just as easily.
• I don't like this post. She's just agreeing without adding anything.
• Calls out Morsul. Maybe a slightly excessively, but justifiably.

Conclusion: Not sure quite what it was that made me find her fishy yesterDay, but she seems quite all right to me so far.


Day 2

• First one to seriously move away from the Boro discussion. Could go either way. A KM would want to start setting up a lynch; an innocent would want to start discussion on the Day ahead when it's clear that we won't know Boro's role for certain. The post in itself makes a lot of sense, though it is quite heavy for so early in the Morning. She's not messing around (well, she is, but she's also definitely going for it).
• Posts thoughts on people, with some songs.
• Not sure what to make of this. Seems a bit contrived.
• Rips apart Morsul's Day 1 logic. Such strong and consistent attacking doesn't seem too wolvish to me.

Conclusion: Other than this post, she seems pretty good to me. I'm quite surprised at this outcome myself, given my suspicion of her yesterDay, but there you have it.


General comments: There's not going to be time for me to look through everyone, it seems. Manwe has said too little anyway, so there's not much I can say. Morsul seems just like a very skittish innocent at the moment, because I imagine a wolf would be more concerned with convincing others than himself. So that leaves Nerwen, Zil and Lottie for me to look at, and even then, only briefly (half an hour to DL).

edit: x-ed with phantom