WW: XCVIII ~ Game Thread ~ Death at the Foot of Taniquetil

[Nogrod]

Talking about Freudian slips?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Which is aleways a problem

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No kill last Night and no ranger to stop it...NOw that is either a darn bad luck for the wolves (they managed to post 3 X 3 names without a single one colliding with the other aka. covering 9 out of 10) oer then one or two wolves are really lackluster... Which brings to my mind the idea of lynching Skip Spence toDay unless he doesn't appear toDay when he will be modfired anyway.

But sure this feels like there is at least one wolf - if not two - who are very inactive. Or, like I said, they had a ridiculously bad luck.

Truth. I actually need to have another look at the rules to see precisely how the wolves' kill choice works, because....the odds of them all picking different people are insane. Of course they could have picked each other, but then wouldn't they- no, no, I'm going to read the admin thread later and I shall comment more on last Night's events at that time. In any case, whether by luck or laziness, we have all risen to see another Day, and I shall count this as a blessing.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I actually mentioned that on the admin thread, actually.

Actually.

Originally Posted by Copper

YesterDay was a shambles, with so few posts. We don't have a lot to go on from that. At least with there being no Night kill this time, there's a little less time pressure.

Day 1 - Innocent lynched. Village 7, Wolves 3.
Night 2 - No death. Village 7, Wolves 3.

The worst case scenario from this point on is:

Day 2 - Innocent lynched. Village 6, wolves 3.
Night 3 - Innocent killed. Village 5, wolves 3.
Day 3 - Innocent lynched. Village 4, wolves 3.
Night 4 - Innocent killed. Village 3, wolves 3. Village loses, wolves win.

...Actually, I see I'm wrong. This doesn't give us less time pressure. If there had been a Night kill, we'd simply have lost at the end of Day 3. rather than on Night 4. We have to catch a wolf toDay or tomorrow. There's also a chance that the wolves will kill one of their own, but that chance reduces as time goes on, and judging by the lack of a Night kill, it's reasonably likely that two of them are in contact. Or it could be as Nogrod suggested: maybe at least one wolf is in among the people who didn't show and are at risk of being mod-fired. Statistically there are good odds that at least one of those at risk of mod-fire is a wolf.

Your mathulations make me happy, as it means I don't have to do the thinking necessary to do them myself (because, quite frankly, I have neither the time nor the energy today). However, Wolfphry's Law dictates that whoever can be modfired, will be modfired, and rarely will this help the village. Let's continue to hope that one of the wolves is idle (at this point, is that just Skip?), but let us by no means assume that is the case.

Also, things always look bad, especially in a small village. It both is and is not as bad as it seems. Play the game. Hunt the wolves. Let the numbers speak for themselves as the Days progress and then have a panic attack about numbers. Right now three wolves are not as big a threat as you might think (well, they are, but it's not exactly dire circumstances at this point).

Originally Posted by Copper

If some players really are going to get mod-fired, I'm not sure what the best plan is for toDay. There are too many variables here, not knowing who's going to show up. I'd like to be able to work out the odds of whether Nog's suggestion of possibly lynching Skip Spence would be to our advantage.

There are three wolves. If we have no candidates toward Day's end, then fine, sure, let's kill someone who is going to die anyway to in a way buy ourselves more time, but even if Skip is a wolf, he has packmates, and they must likewise be killed. I'd rather go out in a blaze of accidentally nuking the village than to kill villagers in their sleep and hope that we chase out the wolves that way.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But my question is, why do you feel the need to bring that up? With a smiley?

I've read through the two pages (thank you so much for making this easy on my brain, my darlings) and I don't think this is quite the issue it has been made out to be. Yes, Nog took this a bit too seriously, perhaps, but he's not campaigning to kill Shasta because of that comment. Let us ignore that exchange for at least the moment and concentrate on other things. Mountains, molehills, and soon, murderous- oh, never mind, Nilp's not playing, so there's no use in being blissfully masochistic. *grump* Still, let's take this easy, at least for toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"Agree"? He did jump on Shasta– no question. I wonder why, though.

Because he's Nog and, bless him, he can overthink things quite easily. I call no harm on this once more and am now moving on from it. However, this is a prime opportunity for someone to slip in and either side with Nog or try to paint him a villain for jumping on my starry-eyed darling. If this talk does continue, I'll be keeping a much closer eye on those involved.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bleurgh!

My keyboard has gone partly crazy> I must have hit some queer key/combination *see!( as my special marks come from totally odd keys and some have disappeared totally like _ aka. the questionmark...

Does anyone know what kind of combinations change the keys_

*I\ll try closing the machine first though(

Funniest thing I've seen all day. ^_^

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thanks. Yeah, I shot the laptop off and then on again. Darn shortcut -key combinations...

RED LIGHT. RED LIGHT. RED LIGHT. Or, you know, typo. Still hilarious though. (Tell me. Did you shoot the battery?)

[satansaloser2005]

So there's only one vote, and it's for Pom? And DL is in a bit under an hour and a half? Oh, cupcakes. This is going to get crazy....

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Talking about Freudian slips?

Nog is being way too entertaining toDay!

Ahem. To business. First off, Sally comments in great length on a discussion she thinks is not really relevant, which strikes me as funny. I mean -

Originally Posted by Sally

I've read through the two pages (thank you so much for making this easy on my brain, my darlings) and I don't think this is quite the issue it has been made out to be. Yes, Nog took this a bit too seriously, perhaps, but he's not campaigning to kill Shasta because of that comment. Let us ignore that exchange for at least the moment and concentrate on other things. Mountains, molehills, and soon, murderous- oh, never mind, Nilp's not playing, so there's no use in being blissfully masochistic. *grump* Still, let's take this easy, at least for toDay.

--

Because he's Nog and, bless him, he can overthink things quite easily. I call no harm on this once more and am now moving on from it. However, this is a prime opportunity for someone to slip in and either side with Nog or try to paint him a villain for jumping on my starry-eyed darling. If this talk does continue, I'll be keeping a much closer eye on those involved.

Both myself and Nog had already dropped the issue at this point. The talk does continue only since Sally took it up again, which makes no sense if she really finds it irrelevant. Makes me raise an eyebrow or two.

Secondly, Boro is being rather noncommittal which worries me. Nevertheless, I can sympathize with him (and Nog) on not wanting to vote for anyone who contributes. Although at least in my case the problem is that I don't really suspect anyone who doesn't!


EDIT: x-ed with 2xSally, Boro, and a third Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The talk does continue only since Sally took it up again, which makes no sense if she really finds it irrelevant. Makes me raise an eyebrow or two.

Meh. I was commenting as I went along (having gained the benefit of my prior skimming before I read through for that post) and just knew there was more said on the issue. I do believe I said more than needed to be said on a subject that wasn't actually brought up as much as it initially seemed.

More importantly, how many eyebrows do you have, dear?

EDIT: x'd with a reflective Coppermirror

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Sally

ARE YOU SERIOUS? *checks* Ugh. I am just beyond fired now. I had my player list beside me and everything and still didn't realize- Let us never speak of this again.

No? I was thinking of reminding you of it... every day... for the next fifteen years...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. Two pages shouldn't take too long.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Sally

Meh. I was commenting as I went along (having gained the benefit of my prior skimming before I read through for that post) and just knew there was more said on the issue. I do believe I said more than needed to be said on a subject that wasn't actually brought up as much as it initially seemed.

Hmm. That doesn't really make me feel any better about you, if not worse either. There's still the question of, if you thought a certain conversation is futile and a waste of the village's time, why comment on it at all?

Originally Posted by Sally

Also, how many eyebrows do you have, dear?

For future reference: five.

[Nogrod]

Reading this one kind of made me pause for a moment.

Originally Posted by Sally

There are three wolves. If we have no candidates toward Day's end, then fine, sure, let's kill someone who is going to die anyway to in a way buy ourselves more time, but even if Skip is a wolf, he has packmates, and they must likewise be killed. I'd rather go out in a blaze of accidentally nuking the village than to kill villagers in their sleep and hope that we chase out the wolves that way.

So how about turning the thinking upside down?

It seems Skip is not playing and we are having no good candidates - or at least it feels nasty to try and pick anyone with this little to go for - and so Skip is going to be modfired. And we are actually pretty low on players in the first place. So also from the POV of having this game going just a while longer - and thus giving us even a possibility of finding the wolves by some reasoning - we should at least discuss about this kind of damage-management vote toDay. If and when the wolves don't know each other - at least all of them - there is no team-play to be read from this Day either so it is not so bad if all vote the same.

If I have forgotten something important - or you see a way in which this could backfire let me know so I stop advocating it.

And well, it kind of feels like cheating a bit. But let's think about it anyway?

PS. If Skip is not playing he probably hasn't realised the game has begun - so he could be a wolf as well (about 1/3 possibility). It wouldn't sound like Skip to react like "nah, just an ordo, I'm not playing".

[A Little Green]

All right, dearies, it's bed-time for me. If I have it right, Pom is the only one with a vote this far. I have my doubts about her, but not enough to give her a second vote. I also considered Nog but decided to give him a pass for now (mainly because everything I've found suspicious about him this far has been stuff I always suspect him for when he's innocent). Or some submarine, for that matter, but Shasta is still coming toDay it seems and I don't want to lynch him before he has the chance to show his quality (heh heh), and MCR had some RL trouble, didn't she? If so, I'd be inclined to give her another Day. Copper has looked innocentish all along and Boro more so after his most recent post. Who I was thinking of is instead

++ Sally

Part gut-feeling, part her inclination to pursue an irrelevant topic; makes no sense for an innocent, makes sense for a wolf. Flimsy, I know, but it's the best I've got.


EDIT: x-ed with everything on this page!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Secondly, Boro is being rather noncommittal which worries me. Nevertheless, I can sympathize with him (and Nog) on not wanting to vote for anyone who contributes. Although at least in my case the problem is that I don't really suspect anyone who doesn't!

Good luck finding a guy who does not have some type of commitment issue.

No, but seriously, while yeah noncommital, I could be committed to vote for anyone, except maybe Copper, at this point...if that makes sense? Currently my suspicions would be either completely rhetorical or ad hominen..."you're a wolf aren't you? Yes. You are, don't lie!?" Which would only aggrivate and give headaches to everyone. Try as I might not be a pushy, confrontational stickwad, we should all know it will happen at some point. But I try really hard not to be, because there is the expectation I be highly aggressive and prodding...at the same time it's emotionally taxing. And I just haven't felt like making that investment yet. It will come, usually if and when the situation gets direly desperate it comes. But until then I just try not to be a douche that winds up lynching the seer.

I don't see how it would do any good, but suppose it is more chatter, which is definitely needed. Something seems off with Pom's behavior and posting. Even the "Yeah my posts are strained" was weird, because then she pivots to griping about the limitted posts again.

And Nog is definitely paranoid, but as sally said...it is Nog.

But considering these two had been the most contributing so far, I didn't want to bother with vague feelings of offedness, just have a mental note to watch and wait. Since, as I said, I'm a firm believer the chatty wolves all hang on their wolves and actions at some point. But if they're chatty innocents than it's not worth losing them early on, especially with a relatively substantial "under the radar" group.

Edit: crossed with Greenie a few times and Shasta

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And Nog is definitely paranoid

Or just creative in trying to look for different possibilities for lycantrophy?

Someone has to do that too.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Boro used the exact same wording, "shot in the dark", before Rune did.

Well picked. I mean that might be exactly a kind of phrase a wolf might wish to use trying ot signal out. The problem of course being so might an innocent as it is quite a common idiom...

And yes, these are just trying to catch even tiny bits of things from here and there in hopes that they start to pile up at one time or another. And I do still think trying to signal other wolves is a wolf's number one priority...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro's post #13 is the first thing that really caught my eye, especially his vote and reason behind it -

Originally Posted by Boro

++Nerwen

Do, I think Nerwen wolf would howl as she did? Meh. Probably not, but it's no different than any other shot in the dark reason.

It makes me think he doesn't care one bit about the lynch, so long as it's not him - and I can very easily see a wolf falling into that mindset this game.

Originally Posted by MCR

I seem to be having difficult making a decision as well. I've looked through at others' viewpoints, and they all seem reasonable. However, I've got to agree with Coppermirror. Rune gave little to the discussion, and his post was quite short.

Now, I don't want to pick on the newbie, but this seems a little one-sided, considering Boro's post was just as short, as were Pom's. Could be a case of newbie-wolfism.

Nogrod does the same thing, almost -

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That said - and here's my second thought for the moment. Of those posted I could say that Nerwen's "howl" and Rune's emphasis on his vote being "a shot in the dark" look the most plausible candidates for the wolves trying to signal each other.

- failing to note that Boro used the exact same wording, "shot in the dark", before Rune did.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But my question is, why do you feel the need to bring that up? With a smiley?

Oh no. Cursed smiley. It seems I have been caught. No one ever uses smileys unless they're evil, so clearly I'm... wait, what?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And this later thought that two wolves know each other and thusly their choices are less likely to succeed must be bore in mind.

This, I agree with, though. Given the no-kill last night, I think it's most likely that two wolves know each other. What are the rules on if a group of two wolves that know each other send a list, but the third wolf does not (i.e. are inactive)?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean he could have posted something of some substance, any comment on the game, anything, something, but all he did was that.

No I couldn't have. All I'd done was skim a bit before getting one post in in case I didn't wake up in time (I promptly went out after that and knew I wouldn't be awake again until late in the Day).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Boro's post #13 is the first thing that really caught my eye, especially his vote and reason behind it -

It makes me think he doesn't care one bit about the lynch, so long as it's not him - and I can very easily see a wolf falling into that mindset this game.

Yes, but important distinction...I don't care about the lynch as long as it's not the seer. If it so happens I am a top lynch suspect, this you can trust me on, I won't fight it much and I definitely won't bite. It might be disappointing for you to hear this, considering how you might feel about biters.

[MCRmyGirl4eva]

Now, I don't want to pick on the newbie, but this seems a little one-sided, considering Boro's post was just as short, as were Pom's. Could be a case of newbie-wolfism.

Thanks for not picking on me, but ouch... you think I could be a wolf? I'm too adorable for that! Haha.

MCR: She seemed earnest and serious. She followed my vote for Rune, but for a different reason than my vote. This might, possibly, have been something she would consider a safe, non-suspicious vote. She's not going to be around much, and that worries me.

Personally, though I can see the reasoning here, I don't think it's quite fair. However, I suppose that could be because I'm on the recieving end. Sorry guys, but at least I informed you, istead of disappearing without a word. That's got to count for something, right?

Okay, I have to vote pretty early today, since I don't have much time left on the computer.

He hasn't put his mind out very much, he's mostly been keeping to himself. A bit too quiet for my taste.

So my vote is for:

++ Boromir88

My alternate choice would have been Nogrod, but as he seems to be one of the main factors keeping the game going, I have decided against it.