WW: XCVIII ~ Game Thread ~ Death at the Foot of Taniquetil

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I suppose I should probably go read the thread now....

The muffin should do that...

[Pomegranate]

Okay, I see your point. But I do feel that you're now thinking a bit pessimistically.

Yes, the best material we could get from a normal day 1 would be hints of collaboration. But I don't think it is only that. I think we can also see something from the "wolf-hints" and how people react to those (as I was trying to do regarding Nerwen's howl), from the way people react to discussions, to accusations etc. that tend to rise eventually when people post seriously. It is maybe not quite as tight evidence of anything, but it is something to start the game with. Which is more than nothing, and should be more than if we'd just all 'act wolvishly'.

...But I admit I didn't think it that much yesterday, it was more just 'I want more stuff to analyse and people to have to take responsibility of their posts!'

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Yes, the best material we could get from a normal day 1 would be hints of collaboration. But I don't think it is only that. I think we can also see something from the "wolf-hints" and how people react to those (as I was trying to do regarding Nerwen's howl), from the way people react to discussions, to accusations etc. that tend to rise eventually when people post seriously. It is maybe not quite as tight evidence of anything, but it is something to start the game with. Which is more than nothing, and should be more than if we'd just all 'act wolvishly'.

Agreed. And I'm probably just not so pessimistic. One just has to try and make people post...

And did people have more reactions to my suggestion on D1, the laying out of it would have been a nice one - and might have given us some hints as the reactions would go -but sadly there were only like so few posts yesterDay the point of it kind of melted away...

Post people, post!

C'mon! (to sleep now on my part...)

[Galadriel55]

*proclaims loudly*

What game of 'Wolf is this, when most
Of all the players do not post?

*turns to stone in the sunlight*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

*proclaims loudly*

What game of 'Wolf is this, when most
Of all the players do not post?

*turns to stone in the sunlight*

This being Gal's only post? Extremely disconcerting. There's not a promise of "I'll be back later" or even the slightest hint of her feelings/suspicions. I do believe she's said she'll be busy for the duration of the game, but this....this seems almost like calculated avoidance.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

This being Gal's only post? Extremely disconcerting. There's not a promise of "I'll be back later" or even the slightest hint of her feelings/suspicions. I do believe she's said she'll be busy for the duration of the game, but this....this seems almost like calculated avoidance.

Gal is not playing dear. I assumed that was just a bored haunting wight shouting and releasing frustration for not having much in the form of amusing to read and alleviate deadly boredom.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Gal is not playing dear. I assumed that was just a bored haunting wight shouting and releasing frustration for not having much in the form of amusing to read and alleviate deadly boredom.

ARE YOU SERIOUS? *checks* Ugh. I am just beyond fired now. I had my player list beside me and everything and still didn't realize- Let us never speak of this again.

[Coppermirror]

I'm very rattled right now over a real life thing which I've just found out is almost certainly going to drink up the little bit of free time I'd intended to spend on this game. It's likely that my activity, which was not that hot anyway, is going to go down, and it's possible I may just have to drop out. I won't drop out toDay, at least. (Is this game cursed or something? Players not showing, and MCR also having real life trouble. Are we going to be most mod-fired game in history?) But if I'm still alive by Day 4 it's likely that I won't be able to do anything more than avoid getting mod-fired, and there is just no way I can be here on Day 5. I'm very sorry. I'll do my best to contribute what little I can, but my mind is not going to be on the game.

That said. *rolls up sleeves*

My impressions so far
Nog: He put a lot of effort into keeping the game going, both yesterDay and toDay. I find it hard to believe that a wolf would be going to those sorts of lengths when he could just sit back and watch nothing happen. That in itself could be a wolf strategy, but eh, I'm inclined to think that Nog is not very suspicious at the moment.
MCR: She seemed earnest and serious. She followed my vote for Rune, but for a different reason than my vote. This might, possibly, have been something she would consider a safe, non-suspicious vote. She's not going to be around much, and that worries me.
Pom: Didn't show up to vote. Seems to have reasonable content to their posts, and I do think the suggestion of looking for wolf-hints is good. Overall it seems hard to get a reading on Pom's posts.
Boro: Only one post, and with fairly little substantive content. I didn't see anything especially suspicious about it. Like so many of us, he's just got to post something more.
Nerwen: Only one post. It's quite likely she was just joking, but if she wasn't...that doesn't necessarily mean that she's a wolf. Pom touched on that point earlier, and I think it's correct. It could be a signal to wolves, but one or two people looking a little bit wolfish would actually be a reasonable, if risky, strategy on the first day, in order to attract the wolves' attention and perhaps get them to waste a dream on an ordo.
Shasta: Has said next to nothing. This is very concerning.
Sally: Likewise. And ditto to it being concerning.

The people who haven't shown up yet: worry me very much. I have no information to go on here.

It's worthwhile to analyse yesterDay's content, but that's not enough, especially as so many players weren't here or active then. Those people must talk. We need a discussion topic. What about trying to think of an overall strategy for the village, or for trying to think of what strategies the wolves are likely to be pursuing? It may not be a good idea to discuss who the wolves are likely to want to kill, though, since they're obviously in a position where their strategy has been ineffective, and we don't want to give any pointers.

[Coppermirror]

I should vote soon.

Out of the people who have been posting, the one I have the most suspicion of is Pom. However, that's not based so much on the actual things that have been said. It's an overall impression, and actually, a lot of the things that are supposedly suspicious about things Pom has said don't seem to stand out as suspicious to me. So...no real evidence, but a gut feeling. In a situation where Pom is one of the most active players, has been contributing to the discussion, and seems to generally make good points. I could vote for Pom, even though it would feel unfair.

Or I could vote for someone quiet. Like Nog considers above, there is the option of voting for someone who's going under the radar but is not likely to be mod-fired. That would mean Sally or Shasta. I have nothing to go on with them at all. But...are they going to make it here in time to vote toDay? If they don't, won't they be mod-fired? If they do, there should at least be their voting record and any reasons they might give for their vote to look at the next Day. But unless their content picks up, they'll still be submarines.

Cross-posted with lots of people.

[Coppermirror]

Sally's shown up, and is posting plenty of content. Won't vote for her. Shasta has shown up, and is reading the posts, and may get back to us with content too.

And the more I look at Pom's posts, the more helpful and reasonable they seem. Gahh.

I have to vote right now, so:

++Shasta

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Boro: I feel a bit doubtful about his lack of internet leading to long enough, yet unsubstantial post - you had time to go through us all, but not go through what had been said? Then again, there was not a lot to analyse, and Boro both brings up the case against Nerwen and votes for her, which raises his points in my head since it is a relatively valid point (as much as anything is valid on day 1) and thus he risks the lynching of a potential pack mate. Then again (again), there's nothing that will make me trust Boro anything more than a bit :P

And that's the way I like to keep things, one you can never trust nor be comfortable with for any extended period of time.

Of those posting and participating more actively than myself, I really have no desire to vote for to lynch today. It's hard to want to lynch those contributing on vague misfeelings when there is a good crowd of quiet. I mean we all hang on our words and actions eventually. Eventually the chatty wolf has to lie or give red herrings when they're words (posts) don't match their actions (votes and night kills).

At this point with very little in the way of words, and even less in actions, I don't like the prospect of lynching anyone who is being active.

Looking at the limitted actions..Rune and Nog voted for Pom. Rune is dead proven innocent. Nog's reason to tie and see which one the rest would do, or possibly save, but unfortunately no more votes after. Copper and MCR both voted Rune, and look reasonable enough. He had at that point made 1 post and basically repeated Nerwen.

So, it seems ever more likely I will vote for someone who have been less active than me...Shasta, sally, Skip...if any of you are around, please start adding, something. Anything.

Edit: crossed with sally...well yes, that qualifies as "something."

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So, it seems ever more likely I will vote for someone who have been less active than me...Shasta, sally, Skip...if any of you are around, please start adding, something. Anything.

Oh, my sweet Boro, what have you done? You seek to harm me? I am stunned into (or rather, out of) silence.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The muffin should do that...

Wait a sec. Wilwa is playing?! How did I miss that?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wait a sec. Wilwa is playing?! How did I miss that?

Sorry, I meant the Cupcake...

[Nerwen]

To take up Pomegranate's point: as far as giving us something to analyse goes, it doesn't really matter that the wolves didn't all know each other on Day One (as we now know for certain). The usual "find people trying to protect each other" method goes out the window, sure– but, to replace that, we should be able to detect them trying to make contact/plan the kill choice. I say "should": the *real* problem is that there was so little activity yesterDay, it's statistically possible that no wolf posted at all.

On the subject of probabilities and statistics– Coppermirror, the village *always* has to catch a wolf in the first few Days. I have to tell you, new players quite often go through a phase where they tie themselves in knots over this fact, but honestly, it's just how WW works.

EDIT:X'd with Coppermirror.

[Nerwen]

So, some things from yesterDay:

#6.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's say you are a wolf X and you need to get someone killed by the rules which say there has to be at least two votes for the kill to take place in the first place. So how do you pick your choices when the kill demands others (you don't know who they are) to think the same way? So all the "high-profile" players are more probable to enter their lists as any wolf would pick them thinking the others would think like the same... So not so much strategical discussion but trying to make the same pick other wolves would do (in your opinion). So the "obvious ones" die first.

Note, though, that this is part of an explanation of his previous post (#3), and doesn't, in context, have quite such a "now, here's the plan" look to it.

Pomegranate (#8) responds:

Regarding obvious kills. No-traces should be the second pretty obvious group of targets - though, on a second thought, especially if the wolves don't know each other, there is not quite as many traces left by a kill of a loud player than there would usually be. Indeed, agree with Nog about his point on the wolves not being underhanded by the set-up of the game.

Which does have a "here's the plan" ring– to the extent of being a mark against Pom, I think. However, it's also true that the wolves did *not*, in fact, manage to co-ordinate their kill-choices last Night, so... *shrugs*

[Nerwen]

Another thing I find quite interesting is that, although my "howling" post yesterDay occasioned a good deal of comment, I only got one vote. This suggests that there were indeed wolves amongst those present, and that they weren't willing to try lynching me, just in case.

–It would be nice if this logic worked the opposite way, to clear Boro, since he jumped in and voted me right away– but there is always the possibility that a Borowolf had dreamed me already. And yes: this is reasoning from my knowledge of my own innocence. Sometimes you have to...

[Coppermirror]

Still nothing from Skip Spence and A Little Green, although it seems likely that A Little Green will show up later. On the bright side, it looks as if all the people here today will vote.

What isn't good is that so far the following people have said very little: Boromir, Sally, Shasta, Skip, and A Little Green. (Although to be fair, Boromir's one post did at least have a vote in it.) That's half of our number. How can we seriously try to pick out wolves when half the village have said so little that we can examine? We can look at the people who have posted so far, on the grounds that Pom and Nerwen and others have been discussing, although even for those the conversation has not exactly been raging away. It's come to the point of having to weigh up the problem of only considering half of the village vs the problem of including the other half as well but having no evidence to judge them by. I have no idea what we should do. Both options are distasteful. I'll try to think about it some more, but for now I've got to go to sleep.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the subject of probabilities and statistics– Coppermirror, the village *always* has to catch a wolf in the first few Days. I have to tell you, new players quite often go through a phase where they tie themselves in knots over this fact, but honestly, it's just how WW works.

Yep, that must be true. This village is a particularly small one, though, so I do find it helpful to know exactly what the limits we're working with are.

[Pomegranate]

Partially I mentioned the obvious kills - the post that sounds like "here's the plan" - to get rid of having only one of that kind of plan posts. If there would've been just Nog's post, I felt like it would only be too obvious for the wolves to follow that logic - however, if they would need to decide between several plan-like things, or if we would've got some proper discussion on the topic, it would be less probable for them to get the night-kill right. And they didn't - whether it was partially due to what I said, don't know, but we should be happy for the extra time.

And Coppermirror, I feel your pain. Cannot just keep shouting "People, contribute", but it's really hard to do anything with just the few of us commenting.

[A Little Green]

Ouch. So sorry for the no-show yesterDay! And today I was at work until just now which is why I haven't been here.

Anyhow - there are two people that particularly interest me at the moment, namely Nog and Pom, and their interactions.

Originally Posted by Nog

But my question is, why do you feel the need to bring that up? With a smiley?

Nog gets quite unreasonable with Shasta first, on a post that I read as a completely normal remark (the sort I could easily picture Nog himself making). Seems jumpy.

Now, Nog's point against Pom is the following:

Originally Posted by Nog

Now you say there you doubt the merits of the "plan" because it would "keep us from having something to analyse today and tomorrow", and "could prove to be pretty disastrous". Now thinking that the wolves don't know each other, we the villagers already are in that position that we can't deduce or argue about anything from what happened on D1 as there is (probably) no co-operation by the wolves; which is more or less the only thing we might try to catch normally.

So the question becomes, how didn't you realise that? Now if you were a wolf, that would be logical as there would have been no natural way for you to think about that situation from the POV of a villager - which is very different from a normal game indeed this time - but had only thought of it from the POV of a wolf and thus had not noticed it (probably more busy with a thought of how to find your mates which must be a stressing question to a wolf). That would actually be even more believable explanation if you've been busy and had no time to think this properly...

This is actually a good point (especially for Day 1), regardless of that I disagree with Nog's premise that trying to confuse the wolves by having everyone "act wolvishly" (whatever that means) would benefit the village.

The interaction becomes even more interesting when Nerwen raises the point of the two of them giving "here's the plan" -posts; Pom responds with

Originally Posted by Pom

Partially I mentioned the obvious kills - the post that sounds like "here's the plan" - to get rid of having only one of that kind of plan posts. If there would've been just Nog's post, I felt like it would only be too obvious for the wolves to follow that logic - however, if they would need to decide between several plan-like things, or if we would've got some proper discussion on the topic, it would be less probable for them to get the night-kill right. And they didn't - whether it was partially due to what I said, don't know, but we should be happy for the extra time.

Wait a second - this looks as if Pom was working under an assumption that Nog is a wolf, and yet she doesn't really seem to suspect him.