Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Pitchwife]

OK, so the unknowns from my perspective are (in alphabetical order) Cop, Eomer, Gal and Shasta. The last wolf has to be one of these four.

For the record, I don't like all the hullabaloo Cop made about herself and Gal being innocent based on their roles in slaying Nessa, never failing to associate the two of them, which has a whiff of wolf buddying up to innocent. Also, her explanation of how she came to vote Nessa in #67 would sound wolvish like hell if Nessa hadn't been a wolf herself (more or less "Hm, I need someone to suspect, I think I'll pick Nessa. O look, she's done something suspicious! Great, I can vote her now!")
On the other hand, her D1 vote tied Nessa with Kit, and her D2 vote was the second for Zil after three for Kit. I have a hard time imagining a newbie wolf cub making two such brazen wolf-on-wolf votes in a row, and am therefore inclined to believe her innocent and chalk the passage in #67 up to noobishly awkward wording.

(to be continued)

[Pitchwife]

Eomer
His dislike of both the Nessa votes and Nessa'sown vote, maintaining a conveniently neutral position, as well as his throwaway vote for sally on D1 could fit the third wolf. His first reaction to the two seer-reveals was pretty non-committal (#100), but later he argued in Kit's favour (#127) and ended up voting Zil, tying him with Kit at three votes each.

Now I know (unlike the rest of you) that Zil's and Nessa's packmate did the sensible thing yesterDay and voted the dreamed wolf, leaving it to two innocents to try to lynch the revealed Seer; so the only thing about the D2 votes we can draw conclusions from is the time they were made and how they changed the tally. That said, I highly doubt a wolf would tie their packmate with the seer -

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion about him, but if I limit the amount of overthinking I'm willing to engage in, he does look better toDay than he did early yesterDay. As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

(to be continued)

* * *

PS. Where is everybody else, by the way? Looks like I may end up quadruple-posting...

[Pitchwife]

Galadriel, the 55th of her name
On D1 she first suspected Nerwen for some vibe feeling (in a post that x-ed with Nessa's vote for me and Cop's vote for Nessa), but then scolded Nessa rather harshly and drove the final nail into her coffin. Could be a wolf deciding to push what's falling and make herself look good in the process, but on D1 and with two votes for an innocent to piggyback on? I doubt it. Her explanation for her vote in #63 does sound a little self-conscious though.

YesterDay she turned up rather late, seemed to trust Kit from the get-go and suspected me for pushing the Kitwagon together with Zil.

(Which reminds me, I owe her an answer to this:

Originally Posted by Gal55 #123

And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

In theory, you're totally right. In praxi, I had to vote by the time I did, and had to make up my mind which seer to trust, so I pressed Kit for her dream because if she was fake, she might somehow contradict herself, and took her refusal as indication that she had no dream to tell and was reluctant to invent one. If I could have waited, I would have.)

She later relativized her suspicion of me, keeping me in the orange category however, and later gave the last vote to Zil after stating her intention to do so earlier.

Oh well. A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known. But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

(to be continued)

* * *

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

Good point, actually. I have looked over that in my analysis/summary. This kinda makes a number of points I made moot.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known.

Oh, I was torn alright. It was all because of Zil's D1 "I don't like Kit but it's really thin" talk that made me confused at first (since how likely is that?). But then there was the time when Seeromer dreamed Nerwen and Shasta the first 2 Nights, who he said were wolves, but they claimed to be both gifted. So coincidences happen. And other than that Zi's pick of Kit and Nerwen (the other Seer and a dead person) as dreams sounded just too much like a typical self-defensive fake reveal. Now if he said he's just an ordo, or said he dreamt someone else...

But anyways, I did debate quite a lot in my head. The reason you don't know about it is because I barely had time to write my final decision, forget about the process by which I arrived to it. I post only 2 or 3 times a Day, which is abnormally quiet for me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

Huh, I wish I would play like you describe as a wolf!

[/self-opinion]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.

I was there, but I was writing the analyses for 3 or 4 hours. It doesn't actually take that long, but it does when 5 different people call you to do all kids of stuff when you're in the middle of a thought process.

[Galadriel55]

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?


...I know why. Because Lommy isn't playing. Someone has to do her job for her.


(mirror, to explain this to you since I'm not sure you know how Lommy - aka Thinlomien - plays, she's famous for flip-flopping)

[Galadriel55]

Ah, it feels good to quadruple-post! Finally I feel like I'm playing properly!

[Pitchwife]

Shasta
Was the first to vote Nessa on D1, and one of the starters of suspicion against her together with Nerwen (accepting that he'd had the thought independent of her, as he claimed). At the time the only reason to suspect Nessa was her famous latching on to Nerwen's/Eomer's suspicion of sally for latching on... (you all know the story), so he couldn't foresee she would earn more votes for her throwaway vote for me; meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

Turned up late on D2, long post in which he questions me, sally and Cop, explains himself to Kit and banters with Zil; nothing eyebrow-raising in there. Argued for Kit being legit; summary of Zil, concluding that

Originally Posted by Shasta #115

it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

Weighing the arguments, nothing wrong with that.
Then votes Zil, putting him in the lead, because:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

Now this last reason sounds weird to me. Shasta, if you believed Kit to be the real Seer (as your previous posts indicate), why even consider tying it up? Why even mention that it played a role in your decision, when "I believe Kit, see above" would have been perfectly sufficient? Or did you secretly wish you could have voted differently and gave yourself away here?

[Pitchwife]

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

[Pitchwife]

So it's Eomer or Shasta.

Gal has two very good points here:

Originally Posted by Gal's monster post #153

Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.

and

Originally Posted by the same

Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.

In my post on Eomer above I only looked at the tally, not the posts that were made between votes and stated opinions. This does change the picture.

Also, saying if that sally's not a wolf if Zil is and declaring me innocent and misled by Zil "buddying up to me" (which I must say I didn't notice if he did it) look like fishing for innocent allies.

Finally, Shasta isn't here to defend himself against my Freudian interpretation of his vote post, and I like to be sporting toDay.

++Eomer

Á vala Manwë, and good night.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

Ah. Alright. I had very vivid memories of Borowolf besieging RangerNerwen about who she saved the Night before. (That game wolves won and chaos reigned and it was all very epic, but I would not like a repeat, thank you). And then less vivid memories from other games as well.



I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.