Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Pitchwife]

Eomer
His dislike of both the Nessa votes and Nessa'sown vote, maintaining a conveniently neutral position, as well as his throwaway vote for sally on D1 could fit the third wolf. His first reaction to the two seer-reveals was pretty non-committal (#100), but later he argued in Kit's favour (#127) and ended up voting Zil, tying him with Kit at three votes each.

Now I know (unlike the rest of you) that Zil's and Nessa's packmate did the sensible thing yesterDay and voted the dreamed wolf, leaving it to two innocents to try to lynch the revealed Seer; so the only thing about the D2 votes we can draw conclusions from is the time they were made and how they changed the tally. That said, I highly doubt a wolf would tie their packmate with the seer -

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion about him, but if I limit the amount of overthinking I'm willing to engage in, he does look better toDay than he did early yesterDay. As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

(to be continued)

* * *

PS. Where is everybody else, by the way? Looks like I may end up quadruple-posting...

[Pitchwife]

Galadriel, the 55th of her name
On D1 she first suspected Nerwen for some vibe feeling (in a post that x-ed with Nessa's vote for me and Cop's vote for Nessa), but then scolded Nessa rather harshly and drove the final nail into her coffin. Could be a wolf deciding to push what's falling and make herself look good in the process, but on D1 and with two votes for an innocent to piggyback on? I doubt it. Her explanation for her vote in #63 does sound a little self-conscious though.

YesterDay she turned up rather late, seemed to trust Kit from the get-go and suspected me for pushing the Kitwagon together with Zil.

(Which reminds me, I owe her an answer to this:

Originally Posted by Gal55 #123

And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

In theory, you're totally right. In praxi, I had to vote by the time I did, and had to make up my mind which seer to trust, so I pressed Kit for her dream because if she was fake, she might somehow contradict herself, and took her refusal as indication that she had no dream to tell and was reluctant to invent one. If I could have waited, I would have.)

She later relativized her suspicion of me, keeping me in the orange category however, and later gave the last vote to Zil after stating her intention to do so earlier.

Oh well. A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known. But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

(to be continued)

* * *

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

Good point, actually. I have looked over that in my analysis/summary. This kinda makes a number of points I made moot.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known.

Oh, I was torn alright. It was all because of Zil's D1 "I don't like Kit but it's really thin" talk that made me confused at first (since how likely is that?). But then there was the time when Seeromer dreamed Nerwen and Shasta the first 2 Nights, who he said were wolves, but they claimed to be both gifted. So coincidences happen. And other than that Zi's pick of Kit and Nerwen (the other Seer and a dead person) as dreams sounded just too much like a typical self-defensive fake reveal. Now if he said he's just an ordo, or said he dreamt someone else...

But anyways, I did debate quite a lot in my head. The reason you don't know about it is because I barely had time to write my final decision, forget about the process by which I arrived to it. I post only 2 or 3 times a Day, which is abnormally quiet for me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

Huh, I wish I would play like you describe as a wolf!

[/self-opinion]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.

I was there, but I was writing the analyses for 3 or 4 hours. It doesn't actually take that long, but it does when 5 different people call you to do all kids of stuff when you're in the middle of a thought process.

[Galadriel55]

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?


...I know why. Because Lommy isn't playing. Someone has to do her job for her.


(mirror, to explain this to you since I'm not sure you know how Lommy - aka Thinlomien - plays, she's famous for flip-flopping)

[Galadriel55]

Ah, it feels good to quadruple-post! Finally I feel like I'm playing properly!

[Pitchwife]

Shasta
Was the first to vote Nessa on D1, and one of the starters of suspicion against her together with Nerwen (accepting that he'd had the thought independent of her, as he claimed). At the time the only reason to suspect Nessa was her famous latching on to Nerwen's/Eomer's suspicion of sally for latching on... (you all know the story), so he couldn't foresee she would earn more votes for her throwaway vote for me; meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

Turned up late on D2, long post in which he questions me, sally and Cop, explains himself to Kit and banters with Zil; nothing eyebrow-raising in there. Argued for Kit being legit; summary of Zil, concluding that

Originally Posted by Shasta #115

it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

Weighing the arguments, nothing wrong with that.
Then votes Zil, putting him in the lead, because:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.

Now this last reason sounds weird to me. Shasta, if you believed Kit to be the real Seer (as your previous posts indicate), why even consider tying it up? Why even mention that it played a role in your decision, when "I believe Kit, see above" would have been perfectly sufficient? Or did you secretly wish you could have voted differently and gave yourself away here?

[Pitchwife]

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

[Pitchwife]

So it's Eomer or Shasta.

Gal has two very good points here:

Originally Posted by Gal's monster post #153

Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.

and

Originally Posted by the same

Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.

In my post on Eomer above I only looked at the tally, not the posts that were made between votes and stated opinions. This does change the picture.

Also, saying if that sally's not a wolf if Zil is and declaring me innocent and misled by Zil "buddying up to me" (which I must say I didn't notice if he did it) look like fishing for innocent allies.

Finally, Shasta isn't here to defend himself against my Freudian interpretation of his vote post, and I like to be sporting toDay.

++Eomer

Á vala Manwë, and good night.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)

Ah. Alright. I had very vivid memories of Borowolf besieging RangerNerwen about who she saved the Night before. (That game wolves won and chaos reigned and it was all very epic, but I would not like a repeat, thank you). And then less vivid memories from other games as well.



I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

[Galadriel55]

Now I feel like I'm alone here. Been waiting for the past couple hours for someone to post.

[Coppermirror]

Back now. I'm going to do a quick analysis of the first two Days for each person and then look at the posts from toDay.

[Coppermirror]

I'm starving hungry, so posting my analysis and deciding on a vote will have to wait until after dinner (can't concentrate any more!). But currently I am tending towards seeing Pitchwife as innocent, leaving Eomer and Shasta as the remaining suspects. Points made by G55 and Pitch about Eomer seem fairly persuasive, so if I had to pick someone ASAP, I would probably pick Eomer. But I still need to consider the case against Shasta carefully. He hasn't said much yet, so I want to see more of what he has to say. He's planning to analyse me, but I would very much like to see what he thinks of the other candidates too.

[Coppermirror]

I don't think that we have much to learn from yesterDay's voting. It would be a good tactic for a wolf to vote for Inzil there and leave the innocents to vote for Kitanna, and after the point when it looked as if innocents might not go for Kitanna it would still be good for self preservation.

Eomer

In general, I think Eomer has been sensible and logical throughout the game. However, there are some points of concern.

Originally Posted by Eomer

"Drat and bebother this village. I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch."

Then in a later comment he votes for Sally.

If he's a wolf, it's impossible for him to be defending a Pitchwolf here. It is possible that he's a wolf defending a fellow Nessawolf and trying to discourage a third vote for her. He explains his reasoning later, and it makes decent sense.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

This is a good point. It was a very safe time for him to be suspicious of Inzil.

His comment earlier about thinking he sees a move and considering the possibility of "Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates" (followed by a later vote for Sally) may have been an attempt to cast suspicion on the latter two innocents. Hmm...This is quite vague, but I wonder if, given that Inzil was looking suspicious at the end of Day 1, Nerwen being killed was a response to Eomer's analysis? Perhaps to try to make him or Inzil look less suspicious. I'm not sure this reasoning follows, so I'll look it over again once I'm done.

He still voted for Sally even after Nessa's suspicious move. It was essentially a throwaway vote, and it came a minute after G55's vote for Nessa, so he may or may not have seen the latter.

Inzilwolf's analysis pegged Eomer as a wolf. Bluff or double bluff? What a headache. It's probably better just to ignore this point.

Eomer says that

Eomer says For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.

He cannot be covering for a packmate here. If he's a wolf, he's being very reasonable as a cover. He also thinks that Pitch is probably innocent and that Inzil was trying to buddy up to him before. Again, this can't possibly be an act of covering for a packmate.

I think that if I were an innocent in Eomer's position, I would probably also have reached the conclusion of Shasta being the most suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitch

As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

This worries me a bit. At this point I do wish I had more recent info on the other players and was aware of what is usually in-character for them.

Shasta

He really hasn't posted much, and that's worrying. He made the first vote for Nessa, which I do not think does anything much to prove innocence. At the time, Nessa had not done anything hugely suspicious (although I think it was enough to base a vote on at a pinch).

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

So Shasta is certainly capable of throwing his packmates shamelessly under a bus.

What bothers me most about Shasta is something Inzil said on Day 2.

Originally Posted by Inzilwolf

"Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day. "

Inzilis misleading there, making it sound as if Shasta voted for Nessa after she placed her suspicious vote, rather than before.

One thing that makes me think Pitch is more likely to be innocent is that he picked Inzil up on this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

"Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen."

But was Inzil trying to subtly deflect attention from a Shastawolf (in circumstances where someone might well notice) or was he trying to put suspicion onto an innocent? Or maybe he just made a mistake. Inzil knew he was going down at that point, whether yesterDay or toDay.

G55 mentioned that something Shasta said on Day 2 (about how a frustrated Seer-Kitanna might withhold an innocent's name) helped her a lot in her reasoning for voting Inzil. That reasoning also helped me out a lot. But, just because it's sensible doesn't mean he can't be a wolf.

I see Shasta's just made a post in which he's quite suspicious of me. I'll consider this after I've finished writing up what I meant to in this post.


Pitchwife

Not here on Day 1, of course, so nothing to learn from that.

Originally Posted by Pitch

If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

This is true. However, this and a few other things do look a little suspicious, paired up with the vote for Kitanna. It's a reasonable conclusion to come to. In fact, Pitch's behaviour here strikes me as something a wolf would really want to avoid. It could be a situation of "A wolf wouldn't say something this suspicious, so I'll say it" but that in itself is very risky, and the sensible thing for a wolf to do that day, knowing that Inzil would be a known wolf by toDay at the latest, would be not to get too close to Inzil.

Saying that he had thought Inzil might be Radagast based on his Day 1 hinting makes some sense, and even known innocent Sally was taken in by that.

I think that was has persuaded me is that Pitch has not been behaving the way a sensible wolf might. Essentially, he's been behaving in a way that a wolf could easily have avoided. As I write this I'm feeling a little less sure of his innocence. At present I'm not planning to vote for him, but I'll check over other people's analysis and anything said since and think it over again.

Galadriel55

If she's a wolf, she's been playing a very calm game and has failed to make any mistakes. I think she's been under the least suspicion out of the non-known-innocents still in the game, which makes me worry a little bit just in case we've been played very well.

Her vote for Nessa was third and the final one needed. She could have been hoping that Eomer or Nerwen would vote for Kitanna and thus give Nessa a fighting chance. But Nerwen did have some mild suspicion of Nessa, and a wolf might reasonably have thought she would have voted for her, had she voted. In which case giving the final vote for Nessa would be a bright move which could reasonably insulate G55 against much suspicion for the rest of the game. Even so, that would be very risky and probably unnecessary. If G55 is a bold wolf, I think she's done very well. But I think that if she's innocent as I expect, her train of thought was logical in the circumstances.

Kitanna said that

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I can see G55-wolf steering votes toward a packmate, but I don't know if I can see it on Day 1.

Kitanna has presumably played with G55 before and would have an idea of this.

G55 indicated early on that she would vote Inzil unless something spectacular happened. Now, Inzil would have been caught anyway by toDay, so no wolf really gains from where they placed their vote yesterday, but her analysis was fairly persuasive and she might as well have placed her vote right then. Wolves would still have benefited heavily from the extra Day it would have taken to lynch Inzil, had we not believed Kitanna in the end.

At this point I still don't have any real suspicion of G55. Given that I think the wolf is likely in the other three, I'm going to continue assuming that G55 is innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

DL is in ~30, correct?

[Coppermirror]

I'm intending to vote for Eomer. If he's not a wolf, I will vote for Shasta the next Day.

G55, you asked me a few things before. I'll answer that toDay if I have the time, and toMorrow if I don't.

But sorry, Eomer and G55, I'm 100% newbie. Flattered that you think I'm not, though. I've just read a loooot of old games. It's interesting how different it is to play than it is to read.

[Coppermirror]

Let's hope we'll get 3 wolves in a row.

[Coppermirror]

So G55 was taken instead of Sally. This is very interesting indeed, and quite a surprise.

Why her?...Pretty much everyone trusted her. She wasn't quite at the point of being a known innocent like Sally, but there was no realistic chance that anyone would vote for her. I suppose she might as well have been a known innocent, if you think of it that way. In which case....

There must be some advantage to the wolf of killing her. Sally, the wolf may believe that you will be easier to persuade than G55 that they're innocent and one of the rest of us is not. Either that, or they are doing this just to confuse us. G55 was around a fair amount yesterDay and did what I thought was quite good analysis. Perhaps there's a chance she struck upon a damaging point for the wolf.

I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything. There's one point I suspect Shasta on that's bothering me a bit and which I want to look over again in case it's a trick against him. At present, before going through my analysis, I do still find Shasta the most suspicious and the one I'm most likely to vote for. But the Day is long. And really, after such a puzzling move from the wolf, I feel quite motivated to track them down and not allow luck to enter into the equation.

Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious. And I thought Eomer and Shasta were. Can't remember what Sally thought.

ToDay is the last Day. If we fail toDay, the village loses without a doubt.

Worst case scenario:
ToDay: 3 villagers, 1 wolf.
We lynch an innocent villager. 2 villagers, 1 wolf.
ToNight: The wolf kills an innocent villager. Village loses.

Yes, that's got to be correct. Therefore...I must assume that the move of taking out G55 is to the wolf's advantage in some way. Even a very small way. My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.

Eomer, I'm sorry we made a mistake lynching you yesterDay! I'll do my best to look for the wolf. Although I'm beginning to think they're a trickier customer than expected.

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

[Coppermirror]

I wonder if this is the action of a Pitchwolf?

I need to check the past Day to be sure, but I believe G55 was most suspicious of Eomer-innocent and Pitch.

YesterDay I said that I would definitely vote Shasta toDay. Sally yesterday did at least consider the possibility of a Shastawolf earlier on, too. A Pitchwolf could have been trying to get rid of the person with the most serious suspicions of him.

Or it could be a Shastawolf trying to pull off a double bluff and give us a headache. Aargh.

I'm going to sleep on this, and come back in the morning to get analysing and checking over the previous Day.