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Old 02-29-2012, 06:14 AM   #1
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I'm confused.

Lommy, do you know something about this? Did you manage to dream? I said I'd reevaluate you if you wouldn't die during the Night, but I obviously didn't expect this. It would seem that we've got some cool magical powers on our side (or, well, if we count Eru's death as caused by something unnatural, then perhaps not completely on our side but affecting things around us anyway) - if it's not Lommy, then what is it? Empress's ghost?
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:18 AM   #2
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They didn't forget to send in the kill, did they?

At any rate, this is nothing but a great opportunity for the village. I know who my top Spy-suspicions are at the moment, and I'm very interested to see what else develops.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:43 AM   #3
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The narration does indeed start with some kind of suggestion that they would've just forgotten the name. However, the end doesn't seem to suggest that, it would seem that there's something going on which isn't caused by them.

I'll have to go to a flat viewing soon, but I'll be trying to do some analysing of at least Pitch-Boro-Nog-rest of us and Lottie-Boro-Nog-rest of us-combinations toDay.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:57 AM   #4
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Well, Lommy should have gotten another dream last Night. Even if her target was different than she intended, that's still significant.
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Old 02-29-2012, 08:26 AM   #5
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As I said yesterDay, I don't think someone casting suspicion on our known Spies is necessarily a sign of innocence. It looks to me as if pretty much everyone left has had some interactions with them. That said, I wanted to look at any noteworthy things people said about Boro or Nog, independent of Seer-info or whatnot. I'll try to get to everyone at some point (except Lommy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I meant to start this post by asking if there was something I missed that would explain the three rants about the evil of random votes, but since I don't seem to be the only baffled one, I gather there wasn't. Not sure if it means anything, it probably doesn't, but that conversation seems both uncalled-for and overdone.

I'm starting to notice a rather odd pattern concerning people's attitudes towards the back-and-forth between Legate and Zil. Looking at eg. the following quotes:



What strikes me is that everyone of them is doing more or less what Pitch here describes - himself included! That is, keeping the Zil-Legate-issue in the spotlight while at the same time implying that it isn't really relevant, or that both two look innocent. I don't know if I have anything here, but it stood out to me.
One of the people she describes as doing that was Boro.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Eonwe looks sharp (me likey) and Boro slightly fishy. The latter is part gut-feeling (he seems too laid-back and nice, somehow - I mean, he's always nice, but this time it seems more conscious, sort of) and part because of the way he reacted to my previous post. He neatly downplays his own part in the pattern I wrote about by calling the whole thing shrewd observation and saying he won't vote me today. That was a really sketchy way to explain it, but I'm dead on my feet and need a bed.
Ok, so some rather specific suspicion on Boro, Day 1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Agh. Going with the only feeble lead I have -

++ Boro

I'd love to stay and read and discuss and most of all think, and do something a bit smarter than this, but unfortunately I've got to go. I'll be more active toMorrow, I promise. Good Night!
And a vote for Boro. The first vote of the Day. Since she didn't know what was going to happen after she left, this might seem reckless if she was his packmate. Then again, he didn't seem to be in any serious danger of being lynched at that time. Mostly people were talking about me and Legate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Err- what? Not entirely sure I get this point, or rather, I get the point all right but didn't get the framework. Anyhow, yes, if someone started it, I'd say it was Shasta, regardless of that Nogrod suggested it first. I know Shasta is brilliant as a wolf and I wouldn't put something like this past him, but nothing really points that way in my opinion. Unless he and Lommy are in cahoots, but I've not seen anything that would really support that, either. I'm more curious about Eonwe.
Here she defends Nog against a claim that he started the Bom-wagon. At that time Steve had not revealed, obviously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Boro - As others (himself included) have pointed out, he has seemed more himself toDay so I'm, if not letting him completely off the hook, then at least not concentrating on him.

Nogrod - Someone (was it Shasta?) had an interesting point about him defending Gal. Also and more importantly, I agree with Boro that he's been more reluctant to take the lead than usual - reminds me a bit of a certain RL game where he almost won as a wolf by basically letting us lynch each other while he smirked a bit and poked us to the direction he wished. At the same time, though, he's giving me good vibes (which in itself probably means he's evil since I always suspect him when he's not.
Thinks Boro looks better at that point (Day 2), and agrees with Boro's suspicion about Nog. I'd think it risky, if I were Greenie, to link myself to both of them in that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Legate more or less said what I meant to say. I'm really not comfortable with Eonwe's jump on Nog. I'm not sure about Nog myself, but the way Eonwe is painting him black without pausing to consider the alternative is alarming.
Agrees with Legate about Steve's attack on Nog (pre-reveal) looking bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Right -

++ Eonwe

He was one of the ones I was least comfortable with, and that jump on Nog settled it.
And votes for Steve based on said attack. If Greenie was a packmate, this would be a natural move, I think, since Steve's case against Nog would certainly have raised eyebrows, and they would have loved to have gotten him lynched. Indeed, that could have happened had he not revealed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I remember thinking yesterDay that Nog's wolvery makes Boro look shinier; don't remember what that referred to but I'm sure I'll find it.
I don't remember if she ever said what that reason was, but this is a interesting quote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Boro - Half the time, I'm convinced he's evil; the other half, I'm convinced he's innocent. I still seem to recall something about Nog's wolvery making him look good, but I've no idea what that was! And, sadly, no time to check.
And another reference to what she'd said above, with still no elaboration.

Hmm. At times it looks like she's acting reckless if she were a mate of Nog and Boro, and at times I could see it as plausible.
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Old 02-29-2012, 09:05 AM   #6
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Dark-Eye Popping in very quickly...

Sally is innocent.

I'll be back later when I have managed to get some schoolwork done.


PS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pom
I'll have to go to a flat viewing soon, but I'll be trying to do some analysing of at least Pitch-Boro-Nog-rest of us and Lottie-Boro-Nog-rest of us-combinations toDay.
Why these combinations exactly?
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Old 02-29-2012, 09:14 AM   #7
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Lottie

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I think Lommy's post is understandable - it was at the very beginning of the Day and it was more useful than banter, which was the other option at that point. But just because Legate and Nog are typically wordy doesn't mean Legate had to elaborate on that to such great extent, and it definitely doesn't mean Nog has to post the exact same thing as Legate already has.
Some minor suspicion on Nog, lumping him in with Legate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Then why isn't it? I wouldn't have even noticed it if it were said every game. It would just be normal. Part of the reason it's so odd-looking is that it is, in fact, abnormal. Just because it 'needs to be said', according to you (which I disagree with, by the way - if a bunch of people post giant blocks of angry text about not randomly voting every game, no one will read them after the first few times. It will cease to have any meaning whatsoever) does not mean I am forbidden to comment on it when, for the first time in my memory, not just one but three people post about it.



No. I disagree. Now, I'm not a linguistics and philosophy of language expert, but I do know from experience that just because you say something loud enough doesn't make it happen. Yes, if everyone here posted and said that, no one would random vote, but that's just because everyone would have to agree to post. As it is, clearly some people don't agree, because people do random vote. Ranting loudly won't make them change their minds. It'll just make people skim your posts because your rants are obnoxious.



People like Bom and Sally are basically expected to post little to nothing of substance on Day One. You and Legate are not. When people do what I'm not used to them doing, I pay attention more than when they do what I am used to them doing.



But I had noticed it. I just hadn't posted about it yet. When Rikae asked, I figured I might as well flesh out my concern about the post.
All this was in response to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
First, eeeeeeeeeeeevil. Second, when I saw Legate comment on this just a couple posts afterwards, he jumped at least one category of 'suspicion' - meaning, from 'unsure', he breezed straight up to 'feeling fairly good about' in one post.
This is pretty much in line with Greenie, suspecting Steve because of the way he jumped on Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
But...but in this case, that would be stupid. Sorry, but it would. Assuming Steve gives us the name of Nogwolf toDay, the Ranger protects him toNight. Then he gives us the names of his other two dreams toMorrow. Assuming Steve tells all toDay, the Ranger has to choose which to protect, Steve or the ordo, and may get it wrong and cost us a known innocent a Night early.

Also, I trust the reveal enough to go ahead with a Nog-lynch, so:

++Nog
Votes for Nog after Steve's reveal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
Obviously Steve is innocent, but Lommy, Sally, and Nate also seem pretty good to me, and I'm leaning innocent on Boro, Shasta, and Zil (though hardly definitively yet!). I have no read whatsoever on Greenie, and if there's anyone else playing, I've gotten so little a read on them that I've forgotten them entirely.

Obviously, this means that one of the people in my second category are evil. For now I'm thinking it'd be more likely to be Boro and Shasta - I'm more confident about the first three I mentioned, and Zil and Greenie, for some reason, don't strike me as all that evil this game (of course, they also don't strike me as all that innocent, but that's why they're in the categories they're in).
The mild suspicion on Boro seems unnecessary for a mate of his.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
I'd be willing to consider the option of a Legate-Shasta-?Pitch? pack, at any rate.
But here she has Shasta as a likelier Spy than Boro, apparently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
This post of Boro's makes me think that not only would Pom and Nog, as Lommy said, be likely packmates, but so would Pom and Boro. In that post, Boro's basically writing Pom off as innocent, and implying that an evil Pom would happen in the future - that is, not this game.
To put Boro with Nog seems pretty risky if she was a mate of theirs.

Based on all this, I think Lottie is one of the less likely Spies.

x/d with Lommy
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Old 02-29-2012, 09:39 AM   #8
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Pitch

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
G55's outburst against Rikae feels pretty genuine to me, and I don't quite get what Boro thinks was so over-the-top about it - I mean, if she had the impression that Rikae was trying to suggest Lottie suspect her, being outraged is an understandable reaction; and as Rikae's post looks just like that on the surface, who's to blame her. (Only, knowing Rikae a bit, that would have been remarkably unsubtle.)


That's actually a good point. Wolves usually love discussing rules and technicalities rather than discussing people, they're great for talking a lot without saying much.

Legate, one thing I'd like to be clear about - if, as you say, you weren't accusing Zil when all this started, are you accusing him now or is your insistence merely scientific interest in his thought processes?


You want to read up on the Corsairs of Umbar. We're the only pure Gondorians left - that rabble up north are just mudbloods.


Isn't it?


How would you describe what's going on here?
There's some small questioning of Boro about the row between G55 and Rikae. He also responds to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
No, what Lottie is saying is that Zil's post that followed hers didn't have anything to do with her poke/attack/whateveryouwannacallit, unlike Lommy had supposed.
FWIW, I was mildly annoyed by Lottie's failure to get my sarcasm, but I didn't think of it as an "attack" until Lommy, ironically, blew it up into one.


In which way would you say has Lottie acted like a bold wolf? I fail to see where she's done anything particularly bold yet.
Both those were responses to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
It's not like I can't empathize to some degree with being annoyed by Bom and wanting to set an example, but what exactly was that supposed to accomplish? I mean, you said it yourselves:

and

and you still decide he's the best lynch choice? After ranting at such length against random votes? How was picking Bom any better?

Yes, I know, lynch a submarine on D1 if there's no better choice, and if it has to be done, better now than later, but after all of yesterDay's controversy, was there really no better choice?

Or was there a wolf getting heat who had to be saved?


That's actually a good find.


No, your vote list is confused there; Eönwë's vote was the fourth for Bom and came before Nog's.
He responds to Nog some more, and says Pom had a "good find" in noting that Nog, not Shasta, originated the ideal of the Bom-lynch.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Because it does make a difference whether Shasta started the whole thing by himself or took the lead from you, doesn't it? Pom says it better than I can.
Again a response to Nog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you? And if you think the latter, then say it instead of just throwing insinuating coughs my way.
And again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
My personal guess would be that the first of your Rupert Murdoch scenarios (love you for that btw) is true and it's Boro, or I don't see why she would have said that thing about wabbits and coyotes at all.


Tell - of course not, hint - all I can say is there've been precedences (IIRC G55 did it just a few games ago). It's rare, and even rarer that the village picks up the hint, but not as unheard of as you paint it here.

Anyway, it's bedtime, but I should be back an hour or two before DL. See you.
After all the "questioning" he did on Nog, and their back-and-forth, it seems odd that he didn't really suspect him more. All of that could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

And Pitch apparently forgot all about Boro.
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