Game Thread: TIG XCII - Disaster by the Lake

[Kitanna]

Kath? She only had two posts.
Post # 33, Pressed for time, rereading
Post # 35

G55, Kitanna and Bom should be the three wolves. One wolf says 'well we could start with silly list posts' but unfortunately they all three did it!

Bom? It's Day 1. Pretend to be the cobbler if you want. As long as you're an innocent not a Gifted then if you end up dying it's protecting Gifteds. Shame for the village if silly behaviour ends up with us lynching an innocent over a wolf though.

G55 votes Nerwen. Well, clearly a random vote. Guess we'll have to hope we see more of her toMorrow.

Inzil's a bit aggressive. 'And you know this how?' to Nerwen, and something previously toward Bom I think.

Agan - kind of agree with her comment on G55 saying only around Nights. Was an odd thing to point out really. Could have just said 'oh no it turns out I'm not really around on the days that are Days', mentioning Nights at all is unnecessary. Could be a hint. But, G55 isn't going to be back toDay, so pass for now.

Lottie and Bom are both using kthxbai. Cobbler to wolf? Wolf to wolf? Totally random?

Nerwen also a bit aggressive, particularly towards Lottie.

Ooh Nog's catch on Inzil is interesting! If Inzil turns out to be a wolf there could be some good leads in there.

Pitch looks good. Or at least, lots of interesting comments. And made me read Agan's post: we are not in the same wolfpack ... suggesting that one of the two is in a wolf pack?

So,

++INZIL
Somewhat aggressive. Still considering Nerwen's 'back-stabbing' comment deeply suspicious despite pretty much everyone else considering it to be a reply to G55 voting for her the post before. If he forgot about G55 voting for her, then he only read half of the post he quoted by Shasta - in which Shasta mentions G55 voting for Nerwen ... this quote coming immediately after another mention of Nerwen's comment being suspicious.

That's it from me toDay.

So...she pretty much had something to say about everyone. Her top suspect was for the ill-fated Inzil though and she voted for him. Aside from seeing Inzil as aggressive she didn't make much of a case for anyone. That could well be why she was killed. I think the only person she didn't mention was Sally.

I wanted to take a closer look at Lottie, Nog, and Greenie today. There was quite a bit of back and forth around DL. Nog and Lottie appeared to dominate it, but Agan chimed in and Greenie made some points about Nog and his suspicions.

Lottie:
# 10: She threw out some theories about Bom. I didn't take it seriously at the time because it was ended in a joking matter. Having the chance to think it over, maybe the first part was a serious theory put forward. The second part was certainly a joke at the expense of Bom's avatar.
# 19: This is the "never mind then" post Nog and Greenie argued over.

I don't think I've played with him enough yet - I didn't realize this was standard Bom. Never mind, then.

She responds to Greenie saying this is normal Bom. Nog believes this isn't normal innocent behavior, but I've seen innocents and wolves pull this move. A simple misunderstanding can cause someone to backtrack. The never mind is the oddest part of her statement. It seems unnecessary to put that in, but it also seems like a convenient slip to jump on.
She also states she's done the same thing G55 did (random vote) as a guilty and an innocent, excuses G55 for the moment.
# 34: Responds to Nerwen's "how could you not know this is what Bom plays like, he always does this!" with "I haven't played in months!"

I didn't think it worthwhile to continue looking at it as somewhat suspicious.

I don't think Lottie she have backtracked so drastically. She hasn't played with Bom much and if this behavior is suspicious, then keep a watch on it.
# 37: Comment on G55's vote
# 39: States she's leaving she for awhile.
# 61: Argues with Nog about her backing off of her Bom theories. I read this as pretty sarcastic and angry.
# 65: Lottie just isn't happy here
Mostly she doesn't like the earlier cases against Inzil or Nog's suspicion of her, but isn't convinced enough to vote either.
# 68:

Usually I don't think of gifteds as trying to attract attention, and that's what I thought Bom was doing.

# 73: Continues to defend herself against Nog.
# 75: Responds to Agan about why a wolf would draw suspicion.
# 82: Votes Nog. Can't say I'm surprised. Admits some of this vote is personal bias at this point.

Looking at Lottie she certainly got worked up after Nog pointed out the "never mind, then". I think she slipped in her speech, whether sinister or not, I'm not sure yet. She backed off of her Bom theory when confronted that this is his regular style. But she did make valid points as to why she could believe him to be a wolf parading as a cobbler. Mostly she was agitated by Nog.

Nog is next...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kit

Kath?

My thoughts exactly. If you pointed a gun to my head and asked me why, I would say a traceless kill. I don't notice any particular gifted vibes comming from her.

But the next question then is, why did the wolves not choose someone who would point more in the wrong direction (leave a false trace)?

Am I being a tree stump and missing something obvious?


Anyways, some basic impressions from yesterDay:

Pitch: I didn’t locate any fur on him. Looks innocent enough to me.

Bom: is Bom. I didn’t expect anything other than silliness from him. Can’t say anything about his alignment, though.

Nerwen: hard to say anything about her just yet. But this game she doesn’t make me nervous or scare me like in previous games, though I try to keep in mind how deadly sharp she can be to either side.

Kit, Shasta, and Greenie are sensible, and hopefully innocent.

Nog: sometimes made neat points, but at other times he has been plain illogical. I don’t want to condemn him right away because of that, though; he might be an innocent who looks at things differently than I do, or he might be a wolf who left some holes in his persuasion, or a cobbler who is just messing with our heads and taking our attention off the real wolves. Currently I think the last two are more likely.

Lottie: sweet-tongued. Defensive. I understand her defensiveness, but I haven’t played enough with her to tell if her tone is normal. I guess it is, since no one commented on it before.

Agan: is confusing. Jokes are jokes, but by the end of Day 1 you do stop fooling around with obvious silly bluffing. What’s up with your wolf-packs?


And since a lot of you tried to take apart my previous post, all that I meant way that Days fall on my busy days and Nights fall on my less busy days. As Greenie put it, I was just complaining about my luck. I hope to make it up toDay.

And just to be on the same page as you guys, can you define a "bad vote"? Unreasoned? Bad for the village? Simply wrong because you's convinced X is innocent? Badly timed?

More comments to follow.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nog

I need to vote 2-3 hours before the DL

Haha. So much for that.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Not only at work but listening to online shows and playing Werewolf at the same time? Crime must be running rampant in Alabama.

But more seriously, I don’t know about Alabama, but it certainly is in Esgaroth. And it is our duty to stop it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Clearly you haven't seen the state of her kitchen

Lucky you haven’t! If you look at the state of my room you'll know why I would never be asked to run anything in RL, let alone a kitchen when all the time something burns, boils over, goes bad... To give you some idea about that, the only things in my room that I constantly put away as a rule are scissors and pins. I once almost sat on one.

Ok……That was more that a bit random.

Originally Posted by Bom

Galadriwolf55 still doesn't seem that terribly suspicious to me, though that opinion is subject to change

How could you be suspicious or not suspicious about someone who isn’t there? This statement had me scratching my head.



Oh, and I think Wolf-zila is referring to Inzil. And he's a he, Bom.

Edit: xed with Kit

[Kitanna]

Nogrod:
# 20: Makes a point that as a wolf, saying he's the cobbler is a good place for Bom to hide. He's not letting Bom slip by for this.

If Galadriel were a gifted she wouldn't have then slipped that "I can actually participate a bit more are Nights" -thing. That would be far too reckless. But could she slip it as a wolf?

I feel like he's grasping at straws with this. Obviously Day 1 is mostly making weak cases as best you can, but this looks... opportunistic.
# 24: Mentions a bold team of Bom, G55, and I. Doesn't feel strongly about it, but leans toward at least one being a wolf.
He also mentions Zil and Lottie and how they backed off of Bom. He says Lottie is more suspicious. He spends lots of time poking Lottie, but I don't recall as much time spent on Zil, who he eventually voted for.
# 45: "I'm back, reading"
# 47: Makes his case against Lottie. He makes good points about the nature of an ordo and what's at stake. But in his Devil's Advocate paragraph he doesn't mention how much a wolf has at stake.

an innocent can't think "never mind" on anyone... and that betrays her.

Yes, you're right and that is a very big blunder for a wolf to make. That's why I'm not so sure about Lottie. Innocents lose are lynched for mistakes like "never mind, then", a wolf would know that and be extra careful, I think.
# 52: Talks about Zil and isn't sure about his "forgetting G55's vote". He can't seem to make up his mind about Zil and what he's said about multitaking, etc.
# 55: Argues with Greenie about what he thought Lottie meant.
# 59:

Also, I think I made it clear why I think Lottie looks suspicious. Greenie seems to have had no time or wish to comment on my explanation on that (#47). And what I said in #55 doesn't make Greenie look any better.

But seeing Inzil's eagerness to jump on what Greenie has been preparing looks not the less suspicious. Blah... the clock is ticking and I need to go to sleep...

# 67: Admits that he'd vote for Greenie if he didn't care about "the probabilities of who's actually going to get lynched". Responds to Lottie about her agreement with Greenie over what she meant.
# 76: It's all about Greenie and why she's treacherous.
# 81: Mod question
# 90: "Show me a strong argument"
# 93: Says Greenie puts words in Lottie's mouth in response to me saying that about him.
# 95: Zil vote

I see Nog poking at Lottie a lot. Maybe because she kept popping back up to defend herself. He voted for Zil and from what I can it was to save himself, but he also had suspicions of Zil early on. Nog speaks reason, he always does, and I can easily see his reasonings saving the village, but just as easily I can it destroying all of us. The only real suspicious thing I see with Nog is how he tries to make something out of nothing. The biggest example I can think of is his post about G55 slipping about about being able to play during Night. It is very opportunistic.

Greenie:
# 14: We can't deduce much from Bom. I actually misread this the first time I read it. She doesn't like G55's vote, but understands the situation.
# 48:

Quite honestly, I think you're reading too much into that comment. The way I saw it, she was just mentioning her bad luck concerning the Days - a thing a wolf would not "slip" since she wouldn't consider it bad luck at all.

Greenie and I apparently share a mind on this thought.

Originally Posted by Pitch
Anyway, thanks for telling the wolves she's not gifted!

That's actually a good point. Why point that out, Nog? Unless you're the cobbler and want to make sure the wolves don't miss it, that is.[/quote]
I'm not sure why Pitch and Greenie jumped on Nog for this. In fact it looks weirder to me that they bring this up. Like, how do you figure Nog is giving anything away? How do you know he knows G55 isn't gifted? That's one big ball of confusion for me.
# 49:

Nog, you're reaching. Lottie never said "never mind that person" but rather "never mind that particular point against that person" - which is something an innocent can afford to say.

Greenie puts words into Nog's mouth and Lottie's mouth in one sentence. I'm impressed.
# 54: Votes Nog, based on reasons already stated.

I'm so happy Greenie only posted four times. I'm so very sleepy. Ok, Greenie said a lot without saying a lot. She jumps on a comment about Nog from Pitch that was pretty bad for a suspicion, even by Day 1 standards. Then she twists what Lottie says by twisting what Nog said. I like her least of the three I've looked at so far.

Agan has talked a lot, but I can't honestly remember anything she's said and that's kind of scary to me.
But...my day started out weird when I dreamt of this village, except Anne Boleyn and Katherine of Aragon were in it and then it went downhill when I had to attend to my RL job. I should have been making barrels for you fine people! I set my alarm an hour earlier so I can get up and comment a little before work tomorrow.

[Nerwen]

*rings handbell*

Hear ye, hear ye! Our most esteemed baker Kath has been foully murdered! And her bread ruined! From this Day forth, the village will be forced to depend on the inferior wares of so-called "cook" (and noted backstabber) Galadriel55. The griping agonies of food poisoning await us all! Let none rest until this most horrid crime has been avenged!

–Anyway, sorry for lack of participation yesterDay. Your itinerant Town Crier was on the road for most of it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Looking at Lottie she certainly got worked up after Nog pointed out the "never mind, then". I think she slipped in her speech, whether sinister or not, I'm not sure yet. She backed off of her Bom theory when confronted that this is his regular style. But she did make valid points as to why she could believe him to be a wolf parading as a cobbler.

Oh yes, I can remember when that used to be a routine wolf-tactic– but I gather what people are on about with Lottie isn't so much that she suspected Bom in the first place, as that she backed off instantly and completely when it was pointed out that he always acts suspiciously– which is hardly a good reason for *not* suspecting someone, either.

EDIT: I typed all this earlier, before the backstabber showed her face again, but then the page wouldn't load. Stupid internet.

[Loslote]

Just a note: I don't know how much time I'll be able to have toDay, since I (foolishly) spent far too long playing Civalization IV instead of studying earlier, I still have a hundred pages of Thusydides to read before DL tomorrow (coincidentally, DL happens to be exactly when my class is).

Also, after having a chance to cool down a bit, I'm less dead-set on lynching Nog, but I'm still far from happy about his reasoning and arguments yesterDay. I also feel like a Nog-Agan wolf team would be completely out of the question, which makes me feel a bit better about Agan. A Nog-Greenie pack, on the other hand, would almost make sense given the dynamic they ended up with yesterDay...but that's just speculation. YesterDay really doesn't offer anything more solid than that.

Kath seems to have accused just about everybody, and we can't even say that the "just about" narrows anything down, either, because the wolves could be either hiding among the people she didn't mention or hiding among the people she did. Either way, her death doesn't particularly incriminate anyone and mostly just seems to muddy the waters. The only thing we could maybe say is that is that the wolves felt threatened enough to kill her off early when there were other potential traceless kills, which could imply at least one experienced wolf...though that's not very helpful, I suppose.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

My thoughts exactly. If you pointed a gun to my head and asked me why, I would say a traceless kill. I don't notice any particular gifted vibes comming from her.

But the next question then is, why did the wolves not choose someone who would point more in the wrong direction (leave a false trace)?

Well, there's barely such a thing as a real no-trace kill– because there's always that question of, "so why *didn't* they try to accomplish something more? Wasn't there anyone else who could be safely killed? And why not?" etc. In this case, though, with all the accusations and suspicions flying around yesterDay– well, some of that *must* have been innocent-on-innocent. So yes, I think it's actually quite odd.

Originally Posted by G55

And just to be on the same page as you guys, can you define a "bad vote"? Unreasoned? Bad for the village? Simply wrong because you's convinced X is innocent? Badly timed?

Any of those– and also one that looks opportunistic, or like the person is just copying someone else's suspicion. Or whatever.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Bom Tombadillo]

Okays, well it's late and I'm afraid so I won't be posting more tonight, but I'll try and get some reading in tomorrow and have an analysis up late toDay. Got that?