WW XC: Lord of the Rings 2: The Quest For More Money

[Galadriel55]

Ok, I accept that there is a possibiliy that Eomer is lying - as unlikely as it seems. However, only the death of one of these people can prove and disprove all our theories: Eomer, Nerwen, Shasta, and Bom. Two claim to be Rangers, and the other two - Seers. The question is, which two? The other two are hence wolves. Either we'll be lucky and get a wolf toDay and another toMorrow, or get one toMorrow and the other the next Day.

Edit: xed with Foley

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Ok, I accept that there is a possibiliy that Eomer is lying - as unlikely as it seems. However, only the death of one of these people can prove and disprove all our theories: Eomer, Nerwen, Shasta, and Bom. Two claim to be Rangers, and the other two - Seers. The question is, which two? The other two are hence wolves. Either we'll be lucky and get a wolf toDay and another toMorrow, or get one toMorrow and the other the next Day.

The problem is that if we kill the WRONG one today, we kill either a seer or a ranger. That'd be bad.

[Galadriel55]

I meant to say this in my last post but forgot to: our biggest question right now probably is if we'd rather lose a Ranger or a Seer.

Edit: xed with Foley. You are correct in that. I'll try looking for some evidence on them.

[Folwren]

I may or may not be on a little later to post and vote. I better be back to vote.

-- Foley

[Bom Tombadillo]

I'm back early! Yaaaay!

I'd say we can better afford to lose a Seer; not just because I'm one of the potential Rangers, but because if we kill the Ranger, the real Seer dies toNight anyway.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

I'd say we can better afford to lose a Seer; not just because I'm one of the potential Rangers, but because if we kill the Ranger, the real Seer dies toNight anyway.

You make a good point, I didn't consider that. You're probably right.

[Eönwë]

New approach- The Pros and Cons of lynch-candidates:


Eomer- Claims he's the seer.

Pros:
- If he is proven to be the seer, then we have two known wolves, and also know the identity of our Ranger.
- If he is a wolf, we know who the seer is.
- If he really is not a wolf, it's most likely that he'll die tonight.

Cons:
- If he is the seer, we've lost our seer.
- If he is the seer, then the wolves will kill our ranger as well (assuming one of the revealers is a wolf).
- If he's a wolf, we don't know the identity of the ranger, and we have no known wolves from the seer (but the latter is just hopefulness, and shouldn't actually be considered in the same terms).

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

- If he's a wolf, we don't know the identity of the ranger, and we have no known wolves from the seer (but the latter is just hopefulness, and shouldn't actually be considered in the same terms).

But we have a known wolf Bom who claims to have protected Eomer.

And I like your new approach! Seems a very effective way of summing things up!

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

I'd say we can better afford to lose a Seer; not just because I'm one of the potential Rangers, but because if we kill the Ranger, the real Seer dies toNight anyway.

I think it's a good point, and considering this and Eonwe's Pros&Cons we should be able to decide on a candidate, and NOT have a four-way tie.

[Galadriel55]

...Starting wit Bom! (I'm not quoting all the posts, just the ones that draw my eye)

His first post is a Ranger hint right off:

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

But I suppose it's my job to protect you idiots. Ah well.

But he denies it here (probably having second thoughts about so obvious a clue):

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

*ahem* AS I was going to say before I was rudely interrupted by myself (several times, even!) my mind seems to be on the more, as Nerwen says, talented actors. (translation: it seems like anybody and everybody is dropping hints that they're Gifted. Including, in retrospect . . .



myself). So you'll excuse me if I make a few incautious comments about such.

"my mind seems to be on the more, as Nerwen says, talented actors" - such as Seers.

Then comes the Hunter vs Ranger debate.

Then Bom voted Boro, which is a switch from Shasta. I find this interesting, but I can't make anything out of it.

Day 2

Then he's happy that people call him weird (weird=gifted?).

Then this:

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

I still can't think what I can do to prove my innocence to the rest of you at the moment. If people are convinced that I'm a wolf, there's nothing I can do to change their minds (unless something extraordinary happens).

Anyway, while I hate that I'm on the target list there, Eomer is making sense.

This post drew my attention for some reason. I can kinda see this as a paraphrased version of "I still don't want to reveal. You won't believe me anyways, until maybe I'll save someone at Night". But that could just be my imagination seeing clues where there are none.

Then Bom votes for McC "because Eomer's reasoning made sense".

Day 3

So . . . either the wolves planned for the Ranger protecting the fake-revealing Eomer and attacked one of their own,

This is definitely a clue that Bom protected Eomer.

Then he agrees to lynch Shasta so that we have at east one known wolf.

Then he reveals.


...aaaaand Shasta!

Doesn't like Bom from the first post

Says

No, I won't. There's no reason to do such, if you're innocent.

Will likely vote Bom today.

...in response to Bom saying that he'll make some incautious gifted comments

Then appears only to vote Glirdy to save Boro. Interesting.

Day 2

Then attacks me and Eonwe for not helping him save Boro.

Questions Eruhen:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Which is just like McCaber - he's always a submarine. You can't use that reasoning for Bom and not use it for McCaber as well (I know you haven't played with McCaber before, but still.)

I really don't understand how McCaber can be "much more suspicious" than Bom when all he's done thus far is vote for Inzil.

Keeps justice?

Then votes me.

Day 3

Reveals and votes Eomer.




I'm sorry, Shasta, but as much as I tried I couldn't see and Ranger clues in your previous posts.

Stay tuned for the Seers...

Edit: xed with Bom. I see your point here.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

I'd say we can better afford to lose a Seer; not just because I'm one of the potential Rangers, but because if we kill the Ranger, the real Seer dies toNight anyway.

Makes sense to me.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Then Bom voted Boro, which is a switch from Shasta. I find this interesting, but I can't make anything out of it.

Meh, from my perspective, there's nothing to make from it. I didn't like some of the things Bom posted. I got abrasive, Bom fired back and thus revenge voting ensued. After the night to sit on it, I didn't think anything of it. As will be revealed all in good time, I actually hunted McCaber first night, because I found his vote the most out of place. And thus the next day was more willing to see Bom was possibly getting set up. Granted we got McCaber wrong, but at least, I believe right about Bom. He's not a wolf (but he's not the seer or hunter either ).

It's just coincidence that possible wolf Shasta was the other person he was considering voting for on Day 1.

[Galadriel55]

Nerwen shall be first.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*coughing fit* You know, I don't think this is quite the time to be critiquing another actor's, er, talents, do you?

In response to Bom talking about Gifteds.

Then she disappers for the rest of the Day.

Day 2

Her opinion on the votes:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Steve gave no reason; G55 voted Sally as a "submarine". That's common enough for emergency votes– but indeed, you'd think people who were simply trying save a claimed gifted would go for someone else who already had votes. I suppose they might have lost track, though.

EDIT:X'd with G55.
EDIT2: Correction: Steve voted for Sally, and G55 for Eruhen, both as "submarines".

Then this post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Back again. Sorry for not being around– I just wasn't able to get to a computer for most of the day.


This is true– through a frame can't be ruled out either. Still, I think it's pretty safe to assume that *if* the wolves in fact killed him for being "Seer-ish" it would have been because of his comments on one of those two.


Why, though? G55's last post looks quite bad to me, actually.

EDIT:X'd with Eruhen.

After this she questions Eruhen for a few posts, before voting him:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Eruhen, I believe this is your first game, so sorry if this is all just you trying to get the hang of things. All the same, the amount of backtracking and seeming evasiveness in your recent posting really does not look good.

Day 3

... is mostly spent arguing against Eomer and trying to prove that she is the Seer, and then votes for him.

While Nerwen never directly accuses anyone of wolvery and always has a careful neutral tone, she just leave any stronger evidence that would point to her as the Seer.



aaaaand Eomer!

His first posts are not very important, and anyways are undeciferable.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Seem to remember fowk latching onto Bom's, shall we say, daring playing style in the last game. He'd be a great bold wolf because now I'm thinking it's just his style.

Just a post I thought worthwhile to quote, as Bom claims Ranger...

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Eh... Fitiver's gan on here will mak for some good readin' imorn. That's why I leave Bom and Boro.

There's probably a wolf who's said nothing other than character posts yet, so I'll pick one of them. Back in a minty.

Combined with this:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sally fits the criteria (oh wow, I never find her suspicious or anything... ), as does Glirdan. I'm totally aware that I myself fit my own criteria of not adding anything to the discussion....

...until now

Sorry Glirdan, but just not enough from you today. And the first vote is always a safe one. Chances are you're a busy innocent but, because no-one else is really jumping out at me, you're acting the conservative wolf.

This being the second vote in the game, I won't put too much stress on this, but people have questioned it.

Day 2

First post:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sorry Glirdan. Not the best choice I could have made.

And Inzil deid? The immediate thing to take from this is suspicion of McCaber and Bom.

Eonwe and G55 seem likely innocents to me. Not sure, of course. Certain others look suspicious too; I'll try to go through it in more detail later.

"The immediate thing to take from this is suspicion of McCaber and Bom" - looking for the last wolf, it seems. Though can't really be considered evidence in favour of Seering.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Interesting thought. Presuming that Boro is the Hunter, the wolves might consider him safe to leave. He's not the seer; if no-one touches him, he can't use his power. But is this ignoring the point that he's a potential known innocent? Probably better to kill off the hunter at the start of the game if you can, so it's more likely he'll have no idea who the wolves are and he'll hunt an innocent.

Yes, they might be counting on us lynching him, but this is pretty risky.

At this stage, chances of catching the Seer are not high. This means I see three options:

1. Boro is a wolf, playing us for fools.

2. Boro is innocent; wolves seriously believe Inzil is the seer.

3. Boro is innocent; wolves not sure about Inzil but, rightly or wrongly, choose to ignore Boro.

I believe option 3 suggests wolves who are not thinking very carefully. And I think it's the less likely option.

I don't see how option 1 would aid the wolves in any way. The real Hunter could appear at any moment.

Option 2 is the most likely. So we lynch one of Inzil's targets today. Bom or McCaber.

"He's not the seer" - obviously, since he claims to be the Hunter. But the sureness with which Eomer says that...?

Some posts in between, and:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

++MCCABER

Because of Inzil's vote. Otherwise, I can't see why the wolves would have killed him. Willing to give Bom the benefit of the doubt for now, although would not be opposed to his lynching.

Then encourages others to follow suit, as he is curious about McC's role. And then he showers us with clues.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Don't worry, Boro. I think the Ranger is going to get a good hint today.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Eonwe, G55, Eruhen all probably innocent. I think Bom is innocent too.

Yeah, it almost feels lame doing it like this, but...

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Pfft! You are suspicious when you are acting wolfish and being caught in the act by the seer.

(with Eruhen's reply - "That's certainly interesting, Eomer, especially considering how last game turned out.")

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Two of them certainly are.

Again, the sureness.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ach...

Kill Nerwen AND Shasta with fire! And then kill their ashes!

Ranger - Protect! ^^

One more post about bing curious about McC.

Day 3

Tries to uphold his status as Seer, continues accusing Nerwen and Shasta, and says Bom is the Ranger.



From here, I say Eomer is more believable.

Edit: xed since my last.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

our biggest question right now probably is if we'd rather lose a Ranger or a Seer.

On general principles, the answer would be Ranger. The Ranger has to guess who to save based on the Day's discussion. While the Seer can guess wrong and dream an Ordo, they still get the knowledge that the person is an Ordo, while if the Ranger guesses wrong they have no effect. The main aim for the Ranger is to protect the Seer once they've revealed, and they rarely save anyone else.

On the other hand, in this game, it's much more complicated. If Eomer is telling the truth, then it's likely that the wolves went for him, hoping the Ranger would bluff and protect him the toNight. If this is the case, then Eomer will get killed toNight, so it wouldn't seem too bad to kill him now instead, as he won't get to tell us his dream anyway.

However, if Eomer is a wolf, then either they hoped the ranger would protect Eomer and voted for one of their own (very risky, and I don't know if it's really allowed-Lottie?), cementing Eomer as an almost known seer, as it would seem an unlikely option. On the other hand, this means that the wolves are unlikely to kill Nerwen, as it would prove them wrong, so if this is the case she is safe.

However, if Nerwen is the Seer, then the ranger could still protect her toNight, in which case it might be better to attack neither of the rangers...

I don't know, there's too much to consider...



The fact that both Rangers claim to have protected Eomer makes it seem more likely that he was saved, which in turn makes it more likely that he's either actually the Seer or an Ordo masquerading as one, for whatever purpose.

Also, though we have all our gifteds, I think the wolves are winning. At the moment, the worst case scenario means that we could end up losing both the Seer and the Ranger toNight.


On the other hand, it could be that all the reveals so far are ordos, or at least half of them, in an attempt to stop the real gifteds counter-revealing on claims that might actually have been made to protect the real gifteds in the first place. There are just too many possibilities to consider.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The fact that both Rangers claim to have protected Eomer makes it seem more likely that he was saved, which in turn makes it more likely that he's either actually the Seer or an Ordo masquerading as one, for whatever purpose.

Just quick correction Eonwe. Shasta claims as ranger he protected me last night.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Just quick correction Eonwe. Shasta claims as ranger he protected me last night.

Ah, I must've been carried away with that post. I shall need to reconsider.

[Eönwë]

Nerwen- Claims to be the seer

Pros:
- If she turns out to be the seer, we'll gain two known innocents.
- If she is a wolf, it makes it likely that Shasta is too.
- If she is a wolf, we know Eomer's the seer. And though he won't live until toMorrow, we'll at least have the Ranger and another known wolf.

Cons:
- If she's the seer, we lose our seer.
- If she is the seer and we don't kill her now, she could stay alive until tomorrow because the ranger can protect her.
- If she is the seer and we kill her, the wolves can take out the ranger toNight without fear of being dreamed.

edit: Con: If she's a wolf, we don't know who the ranger is.

[Eruhen]

By Nahal, what a mess!

Just when I thought I had things figured out, some yahoo tosses a wrench into things...

Need to make sure I lay my axe at the root of the right tree.