WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[A Little Green]

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

A bit early to ask that. I'm suspecting meny people on different levels now...

Green (very likely to be innocent)
Sally
Legate

Yellow (more likely to be innocent than not)
Mith
Nerwen
Greenie

Orange (various levels of suspiciousness)
Nog
Lommy
Kit

Red (possible wolves)
Hmm. people from "orange", "unknown", or one from each, perhaps?

Unknown
Bom (awaiting posts!!!)
Eomer (jumps too much)
Nilp (his posts don't really register in my brain. Have to do something about it.)

[A Little Green]

Bed-time.

++ Eomer

[Nogrod]

@Greenie: no idea...

Hah, only got the thread skimmed through as my laptop's mobile-network refused to connect for some reason and I had to awake my old tabletop PC (which took like 1½ hours, no kidding involved ).

And this blasted machine is updating millions of things one after another still (hasn't been used in a month or something) so this might be slow going for some time still.

But I'm working on it.


EDIT: see - my post was an answer to Greenie's question, and it took me ten minutes to make this (PC jamming)- then I decided to make this edit amd in jammed again for the next ten minutes... I love this old PC!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gal

So is she suspicious or isn't she? Despite that she's a "little suspicious", you try not to suspect her.

Yes exactly - my intuitive reaction is suspecting her, but my reason is telling me not to suspect her for the reasons I listed. Simple as that.

Originally Posted by Kit

I went back to read it. I saw the word innocence bolded above the post and that clicked in my mind as Nog and Lottie were innocent to her. No, she doesn't actually say she thinks Lottie is innocent, but she also doesn't really say she thinks she guilty either in that post.

Remind me next time I won't try to phrase stuff creatively as it only creates chaos! The post was titled "innocence stock market" so it was about whose "share" = "innocence value" goes up (Nogrod's) or down (Lottie's). As in some finance stuff. Get it now?

Originally Posted by Nog

EDIT: see - my post was an answer to Greenie's question, and it took me ten minutes to make this (PC jamming)- then I decided to make this edit amd in jammed again for the next ten minutes... I love this old PC!

Why don't you use your laptop???

Greenie's vote came totally out of the green. (Bad pun I know. )


edit: xed with G55

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Why don't you use your laptop???



edit: xed with G55

see post 240

Do try to keep up

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

see post 240

Do try to keep up

If this was Facebook I would have pushed the "Like"-button...

[Mithalwen]

Really if circumstances didn't make her look innocent, Lommie would look quite guilty! She has admitted her vote was lazy, she has done vague lists saying she can't get a handle on people and generally seems disconnected. Yet her vote pretty much clears her. Funny old game.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Really if circumstances didn't make her look innocent, Lommie would look quite guilty! She has admitted her vote was lazy, she has done vague lists saying she can't get a handle on people and generally seems disconnected. Yet her vote pretty much clears her.

Not entirely. I've played in games where wolves quite accidentally Fenrissed a packmate (and then won as "known innocents"). Not that I'm getting any particular guilty vibes off Lommy right now– I'm just saying this as a caution.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, not that much to process from the last few posts, or at least not anything that I feel needs to be replied right now. So I have reread Kit's posts. I think now in retrospect, her initial reaction to Sally ("I have to die...") really looks odd - it looks like jumping on the first chance to accuse somebody (Sally and Bom, in this case). Then again, the rest of her posts relating to that do not seem as bad, and might as well reflect her genuine thoughts - as in:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Intentionally I was confused and suspicious that in her second post she said she'd have to withdraw on the 6th. It seemed too early and inappropriate for that. I outlined some of the ideas on had on the subject. I focused on Bom because he seemed eager to be rid of Sally, not because she was suspicious but because of what she had said.

I wonder what should be made of all this flip-flopping with "I suspect sally", next post: "maybe not", next post: "I vote her!" Anyway, since you said you suspected her still today, care to summarise once again what do you base your suspicion on, Kit?

However, in the end, Kit behaves quite systematically, I think - a lot like an ordo who had missed a big part of yesterDay and now is trying all possibilities to determine what to do. I would put her into my yellow zone or something, but she is not really that suspicious to go anywhere too deep.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, since you said you suspected her still today, care to summarise once again what do you base your suspicion on, Kit?

Sally has provided a convenient "ordo reveal" on Day 1 with ten days until she actually would have to withdraw. She became terrified of Galadriel's defense of her, using the words "scarily supportive" and this stance has been kept up into the beginning of Day 2. She took more effort to try to push a seemingly harmless remark away than Galadriel did in making it. She has hidden behind jokes and ramblings while attacking mostly those who have questioned her or defended her. Since my second post I said I didn't trust her and I didn't flipflop about that. True, I found Bom more suspicious at first, but he completely stopped talking, Sally didn't. And with every post I doubted her more and more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

GREEN ZONE
Nogrod - looks fine this far.
Lommy - not really any change from what I have said about her before. Looks fine to me, and the Lottie-lynch still clears her more or less, I'd say.
Nerwen - seems genuine with her posting (ai, ai. This does not look good.)

YELLOW ZONE
Kitanna - what I said above. Not too suspicious after all after reread.
Sally - not enough data right now, I'm afraid.
Nilp - looks more or less okay, the only thing that made me suspect him for a brief moment was the sort of "exchange" with Gal (but it was more like from Gal's part) with her merrily commenting on his posts and concluding that she cannot say anything about him (as in: "We've had a nice chat at Night, but should not continue in daylight."). Otherwise, no problem except for him calling Nogrod "kun" (reminds me of the old saying "If you call a whale 'little one', you probably have a 'big' problem." Or: dear students, please bear in mind that there's a difference between 'kun' and 'Exar Kun'.)
Greenie - there aren't too many of her posts, or not too much she has to say, but I don't see anything particularly eyebrow-rising nor anything particularly obviously-innocentish.
Mithalwen - is totally under the radar now. Like totally. Almost would make it back into the "reset" and grey zone. I should watch her from now on, but I think the problem is that there is veeery little to see even then, looking at her posts.

ORANGE ZONE
G55 - now with questionmarks hovering over her, moving her into the orange zone.
Eomer - actually now I am rather wary of him, like I said above. Is one of those I might vote for toDay.

RED ZONE
vacant right now, but waiting for some good candidates from the above

GREY ZONE
Bom - so, shall there be input?

EDIT: x-ed with a host of votes!!!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So I've decided to look at those I have no read on (Nerwen, G55, Sally, Bom) and started with the second-least poster of the quartet.

29: A Bom proby thing. It was the only in-game-like thing at that point.

190: Her explanation of 'why Shasta was killed'. Could be seen as a 'why we killed him' thing, but I suppose that were she evil could have gone with 'a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.'

(Except that Shasta did that with Sally. Hmm.)

196: Seems assured of G55's innocence (by way of logic--twice.) A sensible argument.

208: First part analyses cursorily the Lottie-Kit dynamic (or lack thereof). I think she seems to see that there is one. Second part:

It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

I agree.

211: Not terribly fond of the "good-votes-are-bad-ones" idea. (I agree with that sentiment--I generally trust the good-vote-people unless the Seer gainsays me or they do something 'Eh?'-like.) Although she adds some doubt of Lommy-chan and Nog-kun in her second paragraph. (But then she ends with a 'Nah, unlikely.')

255

Back and reading.

CONCLUSIONS:
No vote DAY 1--well, she suffers from timezonitis like I do. Sensible and logical, which could go either way. Has been helpful in some points, which points to good.

Only think I can say is I won't vote for her toDAY.

[Nogrod]

I'm trying to get to sleep earlier than D1 as I need to wake up earlier.

So some exclusions to start with.

I'm very probably not going to vote (unless something major happens in the near future)

Lommy & Legate: they have been sensible, made good points and lynched Lottiewolf.
G55: Lottie's consistent suspicions on her on D1 would have been too daring to be a wolf-on-wolf.
Bom: His first post was a joke and I doubt a relatively-newbie wolf would be that uninterested...


Well, that's not much.

Probably not going to vote for Nerwen either. It makes me feel uneasy giving her this pass but I have no time to check her better - and she is a good one if a good one, if you know what I mean. So she's not one we should just try out having to just lynch a random person.

Also I'm not probably going to vote for Nilp as he's just too weird and thoughtful at the same time. It would require more to vote him.



I have some gut-based doubts about Greenie and Eomer.

I do think Sally or Kit could be a baddie, and there would be reasons to suspect both of them, but both of them are not wolves - or not probably.

Mith is the only one who could be said of trying to steer the vote in the direction of saving Lottie. Actually she made her vote a bit early - a relative concept - which could be seen as trying to steer the vote if she is a wolf as there were four people with one vote at that time and Lottie had just started to gather suspicion. Also she made the vote but still stayed around, like she thought the early timing was important? After all I can't recall (or imagine) her (or anyone) being so sure of the vote on D1 that it could be cast that way and then stay around looking at the outcome...

Hmmph.


EDIT: Whoops! X'd with a host of posts...

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod, you of all people should know how I feel about last minute voting. I don't call half an hour before deadline early. Better to steer where you believe someone guilty than follow ....

Anyway the indisposition of last night means I am tired now ... same vote, same reasons - generally all over the place.

++Satansaloser

[Nerwen]

Umm. Anyone else think Lottie-Kit-Eomer is a possible combination?

I'm just thinking of Eomer's rather intense focus on Sally and G55 toDay; it looks sort of like he might be trying to steer the discussion away from Kit– and there's also the way he explains her "innocence" comment about Lommy at #218 and
#219. Now, I actually think, whatever Kit is, that the misinterpretation was quite genuine– but all the same this could be a wolf trying to help out a comrade.

Against this view is the fact that Eomer tends to be quite a single-minded sort of player anyway, and perhaps a bit of a "white knight".

Thoughts?

EDIT: X'd with a Nilp and a Mith.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

see post 240

Do try to keep up

Hehe

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Umm. Anyone else think Lottie-Kit-Eomer is a possible combination?

I'm just thinking of Eomer's rather intense focus on Sally and G55 toDay; it looks sort of like he might be trying to steer the discussion away from Kit– and there's also the way he explains her "innocence" comment about Lommy at #218 and
#219. Now, I actually think, whatever Kit is, that the misinterpretation was quite genuine– but all the same this could be a wolf trying to help out a comrade.

Against this view is the fact that Eomer tends to be quite a single-minded sort of player anyway, and perhaps a bit of a "white knight".

Thoughts?

I would say it's possible, but one thing makes me wonder: after Eomer defended Kitanna he clarified he's not defending her and I really started to wonder if a wolf would intentionally draw attention to his defense of a fellow by saying something like that...


edit: xed with Nerwie and Noggie

[Thinlómien]

I'm getting strange vibes from Nerwen. She seems to be playing very very carefully, avoiding too blunt statements one way or the other and sort of hovering around the edges of the village and voicing suspicion for different people and then always disappearing back to the shadows... or that's the mental image I get.

Currently contemplationg going to bed and thinking of voting Kit (like I said, the suspicious thing is that her mindset seems more wolvish than innocent if I try to read between the lines). My other options are Nerwen and Mith, but I have even less "evidence" against them than against Kit, plus somehow Mith started to look better and the only thing I really have against Nerwen is that she's too careful and a little creepy.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm getting strange vibes from Nerwen. She seems to be playing very very carefully, avoiding too blunt statements one way or the other and sort of hovering around the edges of the village and voicing suspicion for different people and then always disappearing back to the shadows... or that's the mental image I get.

I like it!

Seriously... I've just got a bit too much on my plate IRL right now.

EDIT:X'd with Bom.

[Nerwen]

Welcome back, Mr Tombadillo!

For good or ill, I'd hardly call that a throwaway. You've surely noticed others are considering voting Kitanna?

EDIT:X'd with Kit and G55.

[Thinlómien]

Too quiet.

I would like to see Bom's answer or Kitanna's or Mith's squeaks before I vote, but nothing is happening...

[Kitanna]

I'm actually waiting to see who votes. I'm can't save myself and I'm not sure if I can because if I survive today and someone innocent dies instead I will be in the same cycle tomorrow and tomorrow and etc.

Edit: I should say I alone can't save myself right now

[Nogrod]

If Lottie's behaviour in certain respects had anything to do with Kit being her mate... like she said it twice and defended by saying she just thought to mention that in passing... An odd kind of random behaviour by Lottie (possible), a bad way of trying to disengage herself with Kit-mate (possible), a complex master-plan trying to make Kit suspicious in case at the later time Lottie would be lynched (very improbable)...

Kit has made some real effort, but some major parts of it look suspicious: like suspecting Sally & Bom for real on D1 because of those early posts (and insisting on them), or using most of her energies toDay in hunting the wolf-lynchers...

I mean Sally looks somewhat suspicious, but not on the basis of her early posts of D1.

Mith is the only person one could say might have tried to sway the voting away from Lottie yesterDay - and doing it in time as to not rouse too many suspicions.


That's where I think my vote would stem from. Soonish, as I really have to get to sleep (2AM and wake-up at 8AM).


EDIT: Blah, X'd with a host again...

[Nogrod]

Uhh.. I do share Nerwen's concern over Bom's vote.

And that does make me wonder. Oh my, this is once again getting complicated...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

People prominent in Nerwen's posts:

• Thinlómien:
  • 196: That part at the bottom reveals a smidgen of doubt about Lommy.
  • 211: The doubt is repeated, but it remains a smidgen (due to her caveat at the end.)
  • 266: Mentions the possibility of accidental Fenris fratricide, but reiterates that she's not 'getting any particular guilty vibes off Lommy right now'.
  
  
• Bom Tombadillo:
  • 275: Welcomes him back, hangs a lampshade on his 'throwaway' vote.
  • 287: Rules out Bom + Kit.
  • 292: Repeats her doubts regarding Bom's vote.
  
  
• Galadriel55:
  • 196: Logical exculpation of G55 due to her 'connexion' with Loslote.
  • 264: Considers a possible Eomer-Kit-Loslote trio of baddies, due to Eomer's focus on Sally and G55, ostensibly 'to steer the discussion away from Kit'. But once again she adds a caveat at the end. [Prudence is the new patience! ]
  
  
• satansaloser2005:
  • 196: I don't know if she's saying anything about Sally's guilt or not, since parts of the post hangs on the assumption that she's a baddie with Lottie.
  • 264: This one hangs on the assumption that she's innocent and a shooting target of an evil Eomer. Meh, Nerwen comes to no conclusion about Sally.

Okay, so Lommy kinda looks bad now--all the caveats Nerwen had appended seems to be just like full stops for her sentences, heh. Bom has been attacked on the basis of his vote, so nothing jumps out there. G55 has been defended well enough, so if she had been an attempted Seer-kill them baddies probably thought either she or Lommy (or both) had been a dream target.

(Btw it's cool how nobody save for a two-words-Sally has shown up. Soon I shall flood this DAY with my thoughts and you shall follow me to your doom! DOOM!!!)

Dream on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nice to see people have been busy with posting, even though it meant digging through several layers of posts for me to reach the present...

Generally, I am getting bad feeling about Eomer from his initial posts of this Day. He goes with this "merry-go-somethingsomething" attitude, sort of floating through the flow without raising too much controversy, notice, suspicion, or anything like that. A bit too careful for my taste and all that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Nog makes some sense here, although I don't think the "I didn't know Kit was playing" thing would be a thing for a Wolf to do. That would be really stupid, I mean. But it still makes me think of other possible things behind Kit's behavior, like her constant attacks on certain people (the sort of "zeal") and all that. I think it would be nice to reread her posts, if I have time to do that.

Also, her analysis of Mith is somewhat strange. It feels odd, this listing half of "nothing to say" posts, then saying all this stuff about "there being something fiendish" (not really specifying what?). She also seems to be "spreading the nets", so to say - with her general approach: first continuing in questioning G55, then Mith, then in the very same post saying that at least one Wolf might be a submarine...

I think I really should reread her posts, if I can.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Because neither of us did it properly yesterDay. If all the Lottie-lynchers could just say "what Shasta said" and vote, my vote had to be explained, especially because I didn't comment too much on Lommy before.

"Neither of us" - speaking for both of ye, are you, G55? That smells fishy.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, he forgot about a RPG a long time ago... *glares at Bom*

Actually that line makes me think of him as more ordo than not. If he was a wolf or gifted, would he really forget his responsibilities?

Now somewhat thinking the same about Bom, although of course nothing can be ruled out (and most of all, I dislike meta-reasoning, and as some people know very well, it can backfire very nastily).

I like it that Gal has accepted my colour-scheme, by the way

EDIT: intentionally x-ed since Nog on this page, I am losing focus with too many thoughts to process - going to continue further on in a separate post...

[Bom Tombadillo]

Argh. No new developments that I've really noticed - I didn't have a chance to start my read-through at the time I planned and so had to do a rather rushed and still not-quite-complete one - just considering of Day One suspicions. Honestly, if I'm going to be this bad about time I should just drop out or something . Anyway, throwaway vote:

++Kitanna

x'ed with Mithalwen.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

Argh. No new developments that I've really noticed - I didn't have a chance to start my read-through at the time I planned and so had to do a rather rushed and still not-quite-complete one - just considering of Day One suspicions. Honestly, if I'm going to be this bad about time I should just drop out or something.

You might want to consider doing all that during the Night. Saves time.


Anyways, I think I've talked about Kit enough toDay to not have to repeat everything now. If you want clarification (*looks at Legate*) tell me so and I'll summarise my reasoning.

++Kitanna

Edit: xed with.... everything!

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

G55 - now with questionmarks hovering over her, moving her into the orange zone.

So you're just going with the flow?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Votes this far, I hope, unless I am mistaken:

Eomer - Galadriel
LG - Eomer
Mith - Sally
Bom - Kitanna (throwaway, by Smaug's feathers! You can't be serious!)
Gal - Kitanna (2)

Personally, I think I might go to vote Eomer or maybe even our dear Ms. Underradar aka Mith - or more like threaten to do that, as it would still be better to get some more info about her...

EDIT: x-ed with a bunch, editing in Gal's vote. Ah! So I see now, if Tombadillo thought it was DL, maybe he thought it was throwaway. Still, it would be pretty weird to have DL with only three votes, wouldn't it?

[Nerwen]

I think we can pretty safely rule out Bom + Kitanna, at any rate.

EDIT:X'd with G55 and Legate.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm rushed and the screen is really little. Could I have a vote count please?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

EDIT: x-ed with a bunch, editing in Gal's vote. Ah! So I see now, if Tombadillo thought it was DL, maybe he thought it was throwaway. Still, it would be pretty weird to have DL with only three votes, wouldn't it?

He an almost-newbie. What I'm not liking is the fact that he votes for somebody who obviously stands a fair chance of getting lynched– while saying this:

Originally Posted by Bom

No new developments that I've really noticed - I didn't have a chance to start my read-through at the time I planned and so had to do a rather rushed and still not-quite-complete one - just considering of Day One suspicions.

Ugh. I was quite strongly consdering voting Kit just before he did that... Now what?

EDITP:X'd since Sally.

[Galadriel55]

Ok, I really have to go now. I hope to have one more WW Day added to my credit.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

So you're just going with the flow?

No, look at all I have been saying about you since... long time ago. You even noted that yourself.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I just can't wait for the 45 minutes even if I wished to. Too early a call tomorrow.

I'm getting uneasy with this, even if there are reasons staring right at my eyes there. This Kit-wagon looks like too opportunistic even if popular wagons hjave caught baddies too. But now something feels really odd in here.

++ Mith

[Nogrod]

Oh, good night and good luck!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm rushed and the screen is really little. Could I have a vote count please?

Eomer -> G55
LG -> Eomer
Mith -> Sally
Bom -> Kitanna
G55 -> Kitanna (2)
Nog -> Mith

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm getting uneasy with this, even if there are reasons staring right at my eyes there. This Kit-wagon looks like too opportunistic even if popular wagons hjave caught baddies too. But now something feels really odd in here.

Agreed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

By the way, it's funny now that all people are voting so early. That means either all the WWs are keeping their trumps for the end, or voting now with not really caring (or, of course, with the possibility of being forced to by RL circumstances, but I would think that is not a necessity). In any case, it means that they are either very certain or very uncertain. Nice situation in any case, probably, when it comes to later analysing.

[Galadriel55]

I'm here, I'm here! I'm reading.

Thank you for the vote list, Sally. It's much easier that way than trying to piece tht together in your brain.

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't know which of the following is the most odd:
- Lottie doing that?
- You thinking Lottie would do that?
- Me thinking you though Lottie doing that?

Lols.

@Nog: welcome to my newly-founded "Red-orange" category! Your votes are just so... weird. You've explained your Lottie-vote, but that doesn't change the fact that you only voted after it was clear that she will be going. And your Mith came almost-out-of-nowhere. You've suspected her in two posts before your vote, but not before that (IIRC. Please correct me if I'm wrong). That was after Kit appeared on many peopple's top-suspect lists. Before that, even during the same Day, you didn't really notice her. As Greenie (? was it her?) said, it was like washing your hands from the Kit-wagon. It looks a lot to me like you're just looking for a convenient person to cast suspicion on.

ToDay I've been paying more attention to Nilp's posts, and I've started getting a bad inkling about them (I believe I said so before in reply to Lommy a while ago, and I'll say it again). Eomer will be placed somewhere more or less definite when he posts about someone other than me.

Edit: xed with a bunch