Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

Right now it looks like Boro and Nerwen are playing for lynching the phantom. And lynching a cobbler would be very good for the wolves toDay - unless the ranger comes to the fore and the general mood could be made to lynch her/him fr unrealistic hopes for info.



On yet another thing (I promised to stop with this begging, but this is actually worth mentioning to you "doubting Thomases").

If I'm not the seer, what do you think the actual seer is doing right now?

S/he's been overtly quiet even if all reason says s/he would have some news to ease the innocent's tough situation. No responsible seer would go quiet toDay.

So a false reveal coming up? Possibly. But the wolves have it good now and probably even forget to think about that - which would actually mean they at least see I was the seer and have it comfortable with it. What kind of puzzles me is that the innocents seem to have forgotten the seer as well: people say I was not the seer but no one is talking about the "real" seer coming forwards. Where is s/he lurking when the village needs her/him?

Remember: Ang and Boro started speculating about the ranger coming forwards, not the seer. Shouldn't they have called the seer to give them some information? No, they said they need the ranger to come forwards for information!!!

Also, when the seer enters here he calls himself that - and you know no one else has said it but me. Why? Because I am the seer. That's also why no one comes forwards in the living thread.

And it would be a tough mission to pose as a seer there as the fake-one should have a believable history of five dreams with exact roles (if two of the 3-4 ordinary innocents have special roles that's a tough call for the faker as the innocents will imediately realise if it goes wrong).

If there is a false revelation, let me predict it will have a host of dead players with it with the apology of "sorry guys but they just died before I got to reveal them"...

[Mithalwen]

If Blind Guardian was the seer we lost some dreams. Replacement may either have had dreams that revealed nothing useful or information not appropriate to reveal. After all we have at least 2 good gifteds left and I would not expect the seer to "out" Glorfindel or the Hunter.

[Aganzir]

Good job Anguirel. I am not very surprised, and I doubt we're going to see a counter reveal (although I kind of hope for one)...

I wonder if he'll join us tonight.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions.

And how do you think she could have known Lottie was innocent and ed a wolf? As a cobbler, she couldn't. It sounds almost like Nog *gasp* knows ed is a wolf! (Remember we never checked him for wolvery ).

Originally Posted by Noggins

as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night.

I don't quite see how the former leads to the latter.

Originally Posted by Nog

Bingo!

Forgive me if I overlooked your posts even though they shine so nicely with shoe-polish, but I failed to see you say anything about dropping the message sending plan.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Good job Anguirel. I am not very surprised, and I doubt we're going to see a counter reveal (although I kind of hope for one)...

I wonder if he'll join us tonight.

This is a complicated game, but to your question there probably is a quite a straightforward answer.


If Ang is the ranger he will join us as the wolves and cobbler(s) will talk it that way. And unless the hunter performs miracles (if given a chance) we have lost when the next Day dawns.

If Ang is a wolf he will not join us. But if the real ranger then counter reveals s/he either comes here or is then known to the wolves.

Not that complicated at all?


EDIT: X'd with Agan again

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Ang is the ranger he will join us as the wolves and cobbler(s) will talk it that way. And unless the hunter performs miracles (if given a chance) we have lost when the next Day dawns.

If Ang is a wolf he will not join us. But if the real ranger then counter reveals s/he either comes here or is then known to the wolves.

I don't know. He might protect himself, or the wolves might not want to risk him doing that and will choose another kill.

Generally I don't think a wolf would fake-reveal as the role that can be proven, but it's so late now (and in the worst case they don't need to survive long to win) that they might even think about it. Still, it doesn't seem very likely. Angu was considered pretty innocent. (Yes I believe his claim.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Ang on #686

We probably still have a hunter, too. If s/he and Glorfindel reveal there will be a flurry of reaction and maybe some rival claimants, but I think in shifting the terms of debate this would actually be helpful. After all, a revealed hunter can look after themselves to an extent; wolves late in the game are very cautious about attacking them. I've known hunters be very useful out in the open...

The hunter is the only one who can fight back. If the hunter reveals the wolves know to stay away from her/him - and we lose.

Also looking at the way Boro started going after the phantom for real (a build up and then voting him) and tp starting this more agressive defence all seem to fit.


Agan: sorry about that "parroting" -remark, but I was just getting offline after almost five hours of work with the thread feeling I had finally gotten us forwards and you seemed to totally ignore what I had done (especially the things which I thought important eg. the actual suspicions) and only restated few of the general things I had stated already... but the way you stated them looked like you presented them as your own ideas thus letting me understand you hadn't read anything I had posted. Which frustrated me quite a lot. Sorry.

Mith said:

If Blind Guardian was the seer

Do you have a reason to believe that? Like his/her (?) enthusiasm to help the village afterwards? Or something that would outweigh the things speaking on behalf of me being the seer? That would have to be quite an outstanding case indeed. Couldn't you Mith present it to us if you think so?


Okay, I know I start slowly to sound like myself on D2 *frowns* but the inactivity of most and the ignorance & open willingness to not even consider anything I say does make me feel less interested to put up an effort.


EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Nogrod]

Oops! *Ang's revelation*

Well that... gives food for thought.

[Aganzir]

Haven't read your post yet but I totally cracked up at the title! :----D Like, how much more cobblerish can you get?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

how much more cobblerish can you get?

Tell me how it helps the village that the wolves can avoid the hunter for sure?

Tell me also how it helps the village if the ranger leaves the village unprotected for two Nights in a row?


Crack only after that, if you can.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Tell me how it helps the village that the wolves can avoid the hunter for sure?

Tell me also how it helps the village if the ranger leaves the village unprotected for two Nights in a row?

You mean, the hunter will go after Angu instead of a suspected wolf, trusting the wolves to attack her? I wouldn't do that.

And yeah, dying is the price you often have to pay for being a known innocent, at least for a while (and thus narrowing down the village's chances of catching a wolf).

Anyhow I wasn't laughing at the content, it was just freaking hilarious that soon after Angu's ranger reveal my cobbler suspect no 1 titles his post "Anguirel is a wolf!"

[Mithalwen]

Well I was right about Ang. was sure he was Glorfindel.

And it is only a theory about BG. But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

And it is only a theory about BG. But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.

Exactly. There are two options: BG was the hunter, or the seer. It's 50-50.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

but the way you stated them looked like you presented them as your own ideas thus letting me understand you hadn't read anything I had posted. Which frustrated me quite a lot. Sorry.

Nah no harm done - I was rather just writing down my thoughts and even though I didn't phrase it that clearly, what to do with the messages was the thing I was the most interested in (and still am).

Okay, I know I start slowly to sound like myself on D2 *frowns* but the inactivity of most and the ignorance & open willingness to not even consider anything I say does make me feel less interested to put up an effort.

I'm sorry Nog but there's nothing you can do to make me trust you... I just read over day 2 and if I had had any doubts, I feel worse about you than ever. (But I'm so so sorry for you if you're actually the seer... )

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I just read over day 2 and if I had had any doubts, I feel worse about you than ever. (But I'm so so sorry for you if you're actually the seer... )

If you are looking at those early Days blindly, what do you think you will find? Even with the knowledge I have offered it might be hard to find anythnig crucial from there - although I do encourage anyone to try.

But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?

Because I consider it worth my while, silly. I need some coherency, some background.

[Nogrod]

Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it

Originally Posted by Agan

You mean, the hunter will go after Angu instead of a suspected wolf, trusting the wolves to attack her? I wouldn't do that.

Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.

Wolves win straight if two non-wolves are the next two dead (a doublelynch toDay or a lynch and a succesful Nightkill).

Which are the obstacles: the ranger (can save someone during the Night) and the hunter (can take one of them with if lucky/good).

What have Boro and Ang been doing toDay: trying to out the hunter and the seer.

I find Ang's "hunter should reveal" the most vicious one. What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing.

If the ranger reveals the wolves know if s/he is the correct one. Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights. And there will be no Day when the ranger could go back as the game is over.

Clear enough now?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it
Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.

Ahh I thought you meant Angu's reveal would have helped the wolves to avoid the hunter which made very little sense. As I see it, your questions didn't have much to do with my post that you quoted.

trying to out the hunter and the seer.

Hum?

What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing. --- Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights.

Going by the previous assumptions (all the wolves are alive and they lynch a non-wolf), their chance of hitting the hunter is 1/4. Not bad but not that good either - and the village could do with another known innocent. And they will never ever be able to talk the village into lynching Glorfy unless I've seriously underestimated everything.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm sorry Nog but there's nothing you can do to make me trust you...

Originally Posted by Mith

But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.

Well, if that is your attitude, don't ask toMorrow why we lost.

I'm not going to defend my position the whole Night another time, but I do beg you ask yourselves, what is the reason behind your conviction that no proof will turn it over or can even question it?

You should start by reading what I said toDay as you clearly haven't. (Especially Agan's comments and questions reveal she has not even bothered )


Btw. if I was a cobbler I would be gloating already...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, if that is your attitude, don't ask toMorrow why we lost.

I won't, provided that you won't blame me for losing like you were prone to do on day 2...

You should start by reading what I said toDay as you clearly haven't. (Especially Agan's comments and questions reveal she has not even bothered )

That's silly. In spite of what you think, I do read your posts, only I try not to get distracted by arguing with you.

[Thinlómien]

Here and catching up. Seems like reading the dead thread has given me enough headache, next I should read the living thread...

A few thoughts:
- good that we're one (more?) cobbler down and he won't even be able to mess stuff up here
- I admit my ignorance might be because I haven't read everything that's been said 100% carefully, but I can't see how my one vote was so disastrous yesterDay
- I doubt a cobbler/wolf would reveal as Glorfy at this point so I trust Ang unless he's said something totally silly (shall see soon)
- hi Mith hope you don't mind I say I hope you're a cobbler like I suspected
- we should definitely not vote to steer the lynch in a way that conveys false messages! the living trust us, and if we tell them that I was a wolf and they start looking for connections that don't exist toMorrow that might doom them for the whole game
- believe it or not, my to believe or not to believe debate has actually led me to almost belive Nog's claim. If he's not the seer, where is she?!

Now off to read the rants of the living.