My general take on the matter is that in the "physics" of Middle-earth, to use the word somewhat unorthodoxly, Tolkien went with a most Nordic look, feel, and air. He says as much himself, and a quick glance at the mythology he borrows from and his lifelong interests corroborate the story readily.
However, in the metaphysics of Middle-earth (here, however, I use the word somewhat more conventionally), I would say he hies closer to the Catholic side of things. This Catholicity doesn't come through very much in the externals (the "physics") of the stories, but I think it's there in what underlies them: in things like the Long Defeat/Eucatastrophe relationship, the goodness of Matter mixed with its corruption by the Prime Evil, and idea of a historically-grounded redemption.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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