WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Cailín]

I just read over Loslote's posts and I do not like what I see. She seems very unsure of herself (fair enough - most of us are), but her apologetic behaviour and her unwillingness to take responsibility for her choices seem particularly shady. Also, her vote for Kitanna, leaving judgment in the hands of one who has admitted that she can hardly be involved, rather than trusting to her own.

I am also okay lynching Nessa and clear up some confusion there. I have not had time to look at ED's posts and feel lynching her would be a stab in the dark that would tell us nothing.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

That is true, on the other hand, maybe that's the instinct of an inspector, to quickly put up facts together (surprised you did not mention that).

Now, a list - more for myself than for anybody else, to see all the names in front of me at the same moment and to somewhat summarise what exactly I think of everybody - and whom could I vote:

Eomer - I am a bit worried about him from some things he says, but I don't think I'd have reason to vote him now
L. Ron Hubbard - submarine indeed, though I would prefer voting for somebody I suspect at least a bit to a random shot, even if at a sumbarine
Macalaure - looks good-ish enough to me
Shastanis Althreduin - he actually seems reasonable, I quite like him this far
Loslote - I am actually thinking quite well of her by now
Kitanna - a Hunter. At least until somebody else starts claiming otherwise. *eyes Skip*
wilwarin538 - flip-floppy about her, but at least for certain not going to vote her at least this far
Nessa Telrunya - a thing or two raised eyebrows, I'm wondering about the possible implications of the Night kills, but hard to say
Pitchwife - not much of an idea, not really suspicious
Inziladun - wary of, but not really strongly suspecting him
Rikae - creeps me out, like I said, she is hard to read in general
Boromir88 - unsure about, watching
A Little Green - I have just very little idea about her, need to start pay more attention to her. There's just too many people and she has not been posting so much.
Blind Guardian - little to go with...
Skip Spence - suspicious, but the Hunter-joke, like I said, makes me think a Wolf would not pull that off. I am sort of debating with myself whether I should not overcome this feeling and vote him anyway, the question is - would a Skipwolf be so careless/bold to post something like that even as a Wolf?
Mänwe - nice to see him around, this far did not have much chance to participate, setting him aside for now, shall evaluate on him later once there's more
Valier - there is something fishy about her, I am not sure
Thinlómien - I am actually rather suspicious of her this time, interestingly. She posts in a way that seems unusual in comparison to her innocent self.
Aganzir - it's Agan. Mind of a Wolf, for sure. Whether she is an actual Wolf is another thing. Watching her.
Caílin - could be either

Actually, this list is not very helpful. In fact, it is not helpful at all. I have very, very hazy idea about most of people. I would hope it to change soon. Anyway, there are some people from whom I will probably not select, than I can think about the others...

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy

[Valier]

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Valier

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

Well this one I actually don't like, not at all, precious. Like, I suspect skip myself, but for some reason, I get the vibes from Val as if she was just picking him while at the same point staying away from the bandwaggons which are rolling.

*sigh* This is all too difficult... I might be for voting Valier, if that has any chance to get through. I am unsure about the Nessa-wagon myself, just because I am not sure if I understand correctly all the reasons of those who have put it in motion.

EDIT: x-ed with Bob.

[Thinlómien]

So

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa 2
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa 3
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Zil

Out of the people already voted, I would prefer Zil, followed by Skip and then Ed. Nessa is making me have second thoughts again because the fact that people are so eager to bandwagon against her without any very solid evidence makes me think she might be innocent after all.


edit: xed with Rikae who is

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Which is how I saw it.

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

As I said Lommy's death doesn't come as a surprise - but according to my notes, nobody thought Valier was innocent. I'm wondering if they went for her as a potential seer - or if their real target was Lommy as a potential seer and they threw in Valier just to confuse us. I don't like the situation too much: the kills seem to implicate certain people who have been suspected anyway, but we can't tell if they are actually wolves or if the wolves just want us to believe so, and we never lynch any of them.

Originally Posted by Green

a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered.

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.
And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

Originally Posted by Green

And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!

I misread this as "I don't quite approve of him saying that us wolves would account for awkward kills!" You should've seen my face.

By the way, if we don't get any wolves (or ranger saves), it will be 5-6 the day after tomorrow.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.

That's another look at the situation.

Hmm. Basically the point is that we need to lynch a Wolf. I think that will at least make us determine a bit what kind of logic the WWs were using during the kills etc. That way, it would be good to lynch e.g. Inzil or Nessa, but again, maybe that's exactly what the WWs want us to do. And that's not to say, if for example Zil is a Cobbler...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

Should I have?

Originally Posted by Rikae

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

Exactly.

I'm worried about nobody paying attention to Mac & Shasta (other than "they look innocent"), not because I suspect them but because I know how sneaky they can be. I'd like to take a look at them at some point, however I won't have time for it today. I'm also torn about Boro who hasn't been posting enough substance for me to form a solid opinion on him - he worries me but not enough to justify a vote.

Here's a list of people I might vote today. I'd prefer one from the first category but a lynch from the 2nd or 3rd might prove more helpful. I think there's more of a case against Inzil than Nessa so it's probably either him or a quiet player.

Suspicious-ish but not enough substance: ed, wilwa, BG, Mänwe (who'll be modfired if he doesn't vote today)
The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa
Would be more of a gut thing: Pitch, Rikae, skip

I'm going now, will be back to vote some time before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him.

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.

[Macalaure]

Would like to skip for now
Nessa
Inzil
Skip

I don't think so
Aganzir (only one who's really looking innocent to me at the moment)
Greenie (innocent feeling, too)

No idea
e_d
Mänwe

Not unthinkable
Shasta
Wilwa
Rikae
BG
Cailín

Possible
Eomer (always have a hard time figuring him out. There's no question about him being a shrewd and logical wolf, though)
Legate (I suddenly have a bad feeling and I'm not sure why)

Very possible
Pitch
Boro
(as I said before)

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

The main point in this game this far is, with "leader" and "followers", you need to have such a "leader" that he/she approves of the kills which have been made. That really makes it a lot more difficult to figure it out with some quick and simple scheme. There are several people I cannot imagine doing it - unless it is just the reason why they are doing it. That all comes down to what I have said a few posts before, once we could lynch one Wolf, it would shed some light on the way they might have been planning this to be.

[A Little Green]

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

ALMOST COMFORTABLE WITH
Macalaure - Nothing alarming this far, seems genuine.
Shasta - Likewise, though past experience has taught me never to trust him.
Rikae - Seems okay this far.
Boro - Could go either way. At the moment I'm leaning innocent on him, too. (Though I began having second thoughts as soon as I had written that.. Agh, I might use a closer look at him, too.)

NO IDEA
Eomer - Curiously enough he's under my radar, among the first I'll check when I have the time.
Wilwa - Looked slightly suspicious early on Day 1, then had a small quarrel with Agan that left me really confused, and now she's under dear Rudolph.
Ed - A classic submarine for me, no idea.
Pitchwife - Still no idea.
Blind Guardian - Too little to go on.
Mänwe - Too little to go on.
Aganzir - A headache. I'm leaving her alone for toDay.
Caílin - See Eomer.

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.

It is not like that, but I am speaking about BG, LRH, who definitely are quiet, and possibly Mänwe, of whom I don't know, but he has not been around for long.

Let me explain it once again. The point is not only about quiet wolves or something, but more about who would make the kills like these that were done. I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

The puzzling thing about this is that it makes it really difficult to find four Wolves among the rest of the players: there won't be too many left.

But of course, aside from that, a bit of meta-reasoning, I find it unlikely that some of the people who have been playing lately would kill Ozzy if they did not have good reason for it (which it seems to me that they didn't). That would rule out most of the people who have been playing lately, and would point more towards people who haven't been playing for some time or who themselves are not around very long: Rikae, Cailín, Mänwe, Mac, of those who have been playing recently but are not long for such a long time yet or whom I could imagine not minding as much whom they kill, maybe BG, LRH, Nessa, possibly also Eomer (?) or Wilwa (?)...

So basically, if I somehow combine this, then that gives the scope of my suspects. Which points more to the "quiet" ones.

But, to finish fully and give all that I am considering, there is the other possibility of the Wolves being fully logical and really following something with their kills - only we don't know what (framing Zil or Nessa, etc, etc), that's why we really desperately need to lynch first at least one of them (that's what I have said already several times, now it is in full context and I hope clear what I have in mind). Because then we might be able to figure out what is that they were doing.

EDIT: xed with one Green.

[Aganzir]

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

10 minutes before the DL Inzil says he doesn't particularly want to vote for Lottie but he would to save himself.

8 minutes before the DL, I ask if anyone considers skip or ed. The votes are Lottie-4, Inzil-3, Nessa-3 while both skip & ed (and a couple of others) have one.

6 minutes before the DL Legate replies he might vote for skip but not in that situation.

5 minutes before the DL Inzil replies he could vote for ed because of her easy votes.
I say I'm probably voting for Nessa but might also go for Inzil.

4 minutes before the DL I vote for Nessa. Nessa-4, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Five people are still left to vote.

3 minutes before the DL Legate votes for Nessa. Nessa-5, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Four people left to vote, one of them Inzil himself (the remaining three hadn't posted to say they were here).

1 minute before the DL Nessa posts.

At the DL, Legate says he should've waited until later with his vote (I was very confused at first, thinking he would've voted for someone else instead if he had seen Nessa's post, but he clarified he was afraid of being outvoted).
Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

[Aganzir]

I don't like Legate's meta-reasoning. It makes me feel a bit better about him though because I think a wolf would actually bother to come up with more appropriate reasons to suspect people.

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

I would not give that much credit to it either. But exactly as you said, you would kill him if you had reason to. I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up, I believe he surely must not have been the only one, and maybe somebody would have had even more Seerish-looking personality.

I really don't know about Zil, because I can imagine that a) he might be just being framed, b) he might be a Cobbler (even more likely) - and in such case, I would prefer to lynch a Wolf to a Cobbler still. (And I know, I know, let's not start the debate about the dangerousness of the Cobbler, the point this time is, that I do not even know for sure if he is a Cobbler... basically it all comes down to if I can find anybody better to vote, anybody who looks more like a Wolf. My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do. So, now what...).

[Macalaure]

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa(2)
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa(3)


With the exception of Shasta, I dislike all of these votes.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Pardon, but I don't believe that's what I said. What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'.

I know, but just because one wolf is in the running is no reason to come up with a new bandwaggon, since there were others to choose from. The Sally-waggon is only very suspicious if everybody else running was evil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Please explain how you can say my vote for Nessa was "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" (which is an awful lot of emphasis) when you know neither my role (which you very obviously don't) nor hers.

Pretty bad case of bandwaggoning by someone I suspect on someone I think is innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I object to that nickname.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I just don't get how you got there in the first place.

Mostly some things others said about you, Kitanna in particular, if I remember correctly. I'll have to go see for myself, which I probably won't be able to before the deadline.


So, Boro, how's toDay different to yesterDay? I'm waiting for something.


Out of the ones who have a vote, I could imagine going for Lottie myself (apart from what I said before, her vote for Kitanna is a very easy way out, which could be wolfish). Otherwise, I'd prefer Boro, but could also go for Pitch, Eomer, or Skip.

edit: crossed with Valier, there's another vote I like.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So once again going through it (sorry for the lists)

Not voting (green zone): Kitanna (I suggest we keep her for toMorrow, if anybody considers it still valuable to lynch her, we might do so, or just let her modfired - which I would perhaps prefer now), Agan (her reasoning about my innocence sounds like something a Wolf would not come up with - the thing about 14 minutes and non-native speakers), Shasta, Mac (for both see above)

Not voting (for not enough data): LG, Mänwe

Not voting (yellow zone, i.e. not strong enough reason to want to see them gone): wilwa, Loslote

Could vote (if none of my top suspects seem to be available for lynching etc.): Rikae, Nessa, BG, Hubbard (written in decreasing order of willingness to lynch them)

Would like to vote: possibly Skip, possibly Lommy, possibly Valier, possibly Boro

Unsure to which cathegory to put: Inzil, Pitchwife (status pending...)

EDIT: xed since my last

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing.)

Gosh you make me sound so self-centered! My innocence is the only thing I know for sure. And I hope people's reactions towards me and my little cobbler show might prove useful after I'm dead.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four.

I don't particularly like this... I guess it's possible a wolf or two wanted to save a fellow or two from the gallows, but you have to keep in mind we have only so many wolves, and there was a lot of cross posting. And the fact that at least in my opinion there were much better reasons for voting for sally than anyone else.

I'd much prefer some coherent thoughts instead of scattered from ed (like a list or something).

Also here's an updated tally with Nessa's vote in it.

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Rikae, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Lommy, Agan, Cailín